Perspectives onSuburban Development 2012 NAIOP Greater Toronto Chapter Antony P. Lorius April 17th, 2...
Five Questions:1. Where will the growth occur?2. What does the 2011 Census tell us?3. What is the impact of the Gree...
Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH)will continue to grow rapidly Population Employme...
Within GTAH, growth will continue to favournorth and west 905 communities Population Toronto Durham Yo...
Initial 2011 Census release indicates thatpopulation growth is on target Variation Between 2011 Census...
Greenbelt will not significantly restrict growthuntil well past 2031 Brock ...
Provincial Growth Plan rules are the greaterconstraint to development ...
Demand for industrial and business parkland will remain strong  35% of employment ...
Office market will continue to perform well 25% of employment growth 2011 to 2031 Upwards of 50 million ft2 of ...
Challenge for retail will be new planningpolicies Related closely to the geographic pattern of population growth...
of 10

NAIOP V2 Perspectives on Suburban Growth 2012

Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - NAIOP V2 Perspectives on Suburban Growth 2012

  • 1. Perspectives onSuburban Development 2012 NAIOP Greater Toronto Chapter Antony P. Lorius April 17th, 2012
  • 2. Five Questions:1. Where will the growth occur?2. What does the 2011 Census tell us?3. What is the impact of the Greenbelt?4. What are the effects of Provincial planning policies (the Growth Plan)?5. How will that affect development?
  • 3. Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH)will continue to grow rapidly Population Employment GTAH Whitby-Oshawa Markham 2011 6,820,000 3,440,000 2031 8,620,000 4,330,000 Caledon Pickering-Ajax GGH 2011 9,030,000 4,460,000 Vaughan 2031 11,500,000 5,560,000 Toronto Toronto LBPIA Brampton Georgetown Guelph Mississauga Mississauga Developed Urban Area Milton Employment Areas Waterloo Oakville Kitchener Major Office Development International Airports Cambridge Burlington Intermodal Yards Hamilton Future Transportation Corridors Woodstock BrantfordSource: Hemson Consulting Ltd. NTS
  • 4. Within GTAH, growth will continue to favournorth and west 905 communities Population Toronto Durham York Peel Halton Hamilton GTAH Share of Growth 19% 18% 24% 18% 15% 6% 100% 2011 to 2031 2031 Share 36% 11% 17% 19% 9% 8% 100% of Total Employment Toronto Durham York Peel Halton Hamilton GTAH Share of Growth 14% 13% 28% 23% 16% 8% 100% 2011 to 2031 2031 Share 38% 8% 18% 20% 9% 7% 100% of TotalSource: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2012
  • 5. Initial 2011 Census release indicates thatpopulation growth is on target Variation Between 2011 Census Actual and Growth Plan Forecast Population 2011 2011 Difference Forecast Actual GTAH 6, 534,200 6,573,700 -39,500 (0.6%) Toronto 2,625,500 2,615,000 10,500 (0.4%) Peel 1,253,500 1,296,000 -42,500 (3.3%) York 1,026,100 1,032,100 -6,000 (0.6%) Durham 609,600 608,100 1,500 (0.3%) Halton 492,900 501,700 -8,800 (1.8%) Hamilton 526,500 520,000 6,500 (1.3%) Outer Ring 2,133,400 2,120,900 12,500 (0.6%) Total GGH 8,667,600 8,694,600 -27,000 (0.3%)Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2007. All figures rounded. Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2012. Rounded. Figures shown are the Census population and do not include net under-coverage
  • 6. Greenbelt will not significantly restrict growthuntil well past 2031 Brock Georgina GREENBELT PLAN AREA East Gwillimbury Uxbridge Scugog Niagara Escarpment Newmarket Whitchurch Stouffville Oak Ridges Moraine Aurora Clarington King Pickering Oshawa Whitby Protected Countryside Richmond Markham Ajax Hill Vaughan Caledon Toronto Brampton Halton Approximate Urban Land Mississauga Hills Requirement Beyond Existing Boundaries Milton Oakville Note: Map is not to scale Burlington Hamilton Niagara
  • 7. Provincial Growth Plan rules are the greaterconstraint to development  High density housing and employment to be directed to the Urban GEORGIAN BAY Muskoka Halliburton Growth Centres Hastings  After 2015, 40% of new residential units to be Peterborough accommodated through Kawartha Lakes Simcoe Grey intensification within the built-up area Northumberland Dufferin Durham York  Greenfield lands to be Wellington Peel Toronto planned at a combined Halton LAKE ONTARIO density of 50 residents andPerth Waterloo jobs per ha Hamilton Oxford Brant  Conversion of industrial Niagara GTHA Outer Ring and business park areas Haldimand Norfolk UGC’S to be minimized
  • 8. Demand for industrial and business parkland will remain strong  35% of employment growth 2011 to 2031  Over 20,000 acres of new sites  Providing adequate land supply will be the key challenge
  • 9. Office market will continue to perform well 25% of employment growth 2011 to 2031 Upwards of 50 million ft2 of new space Employment Areas Major Highways Major Office Concentrations Approximate Location of UGC’s
  • 10. Challenge for retail will be new planningpolicies Related closely to the geographic pattern of population growth Development will be concentrated primarily in developed and developing urban areas New planning policies envision a shift to more compact retail forms

Related Documents