Political Drivers of Air Pollution in the U.S.: A Time-Series Analysis (1959-1998) A.C. McCreery The Ohio State University
Outline <ul><li>Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Theory & Hypotheses </li></ul><ul><li>Data & Methods </li></ul><ul><li>Results ...
Overview <ul><li>Political factors that lead to changes over time in the ecological impact of U.S. society, focusing on ai...
Contributions <ul><li>Previous research has addressed: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The effect of policy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><...
Air Pollution <ul><li>3 measures of air pollution, based on EPA criteria pollutants: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Index of Sulfur...
Air Pollution Trends
Driving Factors <ul><li>Political Processes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The environmental movement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Po...
Political Processes <ul><li>Political Context </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Presence of Allies: Democrats in fed. gov’t </li></ul>...
Political Agenda <ul><li>Congressional hearings on the environment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Act as political openings </li></...
Policy & Implementation <ul><li>Strength of policy </li></ul><ul><li>Implementation of policy </li></ul><ul><li>Policy imp...
Measurement of Policy <ul><li>Coded federal legislation 1 on 3 criteria: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Enforcement powers (weight...
Methodology <ul><li>All variables first-differenced to detrend, and IVs lagged 1 year </li></ul><ul><li>OLS regression wit...
Results: Index of SO 2 CO & VOCs n = 38 *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05; one-tailed 1.705 Durbin-Watson D-statis...
Results: NO x n = 38 *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05; one-tailed 1.618 Durbin-Watson D-statistic 0.470 Adjusted R...
Results: NO x Interactions *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05; one-tailed aaa p < 0.001, aa p < 0.01, a p < 0.05...
NO x Explanatory Power
Results: PM-10 n = 38 *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05; one-tailed 1.762 Durbin-Watson D-statistic 0.198 Adjusted ...
Results: PM-10 Interactions *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05; one-tailed 0.330 Adjusted R 2 -4.85 E-05 Media Attenti...
PM-10 Explanatory Power
Significant Effects Media Attention Air Pollution Policy Environmental Movement Actions Democratic Unity NO x Emissions...
Significant Effects Media Attention Environmental Movement Actions PM-10 Emissions - Index Emissions (SO 2 , CO, &VOCs) M...
Conclusions <ul><li>Media Attention & the Political Agenda </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental movement must rely on politic...
Acknowledgements Dr. Robert Brulle Dr. Jon Agnone Dr. J. Craig Jenkins Colleagues The Fay Graduate Fellowship Fund in Envi...
of 23

Political Drivers of Air Pollution in the U.S.: A Time-Series Analysis (1959-1998)

Presentation at the 5th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, organized by the American Academy of Sciences, in 2010. Abstract: This study tests the effect of environmental movement actions, political opportunities, policy and its implementation, and media attention on air pollution in a time-series analysis (1959-1998). It examines changes in national emissions of 5 types of air pollution: Sulfur Dioxide, Carbon Monoxide, and Volatile Organic Compounds (combined into an index with Cronbach’s Alpha = 0.904); Nitrogen Oxides (NOx); and Particulate Matter smaller than 10 micrometers (PM-10). The data were first-differenced to correct for non-stationarity, Multiple OLS Regression was used to determine the direct influence of political processes on air pollution (controlling for economics). Multiple interactions between movement effects, the media, and political opportunities were also investigated in additional OLS regressions. Results show that media attention to the environment is an important predictor of all 3 dependent variables. Additionally, the environmental social movement is only effective given specific political opportunities, namely Democratic Party control of the federal government, media attention to environmental issues, and effective policy. These interactions are specific to the type of air pollution and not generalizeable across pollutants. The environmental movement also only appears to be effective at combating highly visible pollutants that are on the political agenda, since NOx and PM-10 are both more politically visible than the other three types of air pollution. The study demonstrates the complexity of air pollution, the importance of media attention, and the limited impact of the environmental movement on real-world outcomes.
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Technology      News & Politics      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Political Drivers of Air Pollution in the U.S.: A Time-Series Analysis (1959-1998)

  • 1. Political Drivers of Air Pollution in the U.S.: A Time-Series Analysis (1959-1998) A.C. McCreery The Ohio State University
  • 2. Outline <ul><li>Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Theory & Hypotheses </li></ul><ul><li>Data & Methods </li></ul><ul><li>Results </li></ul><ul><li>Discussion </li></ul>
  • 3. Overview <ul><li>Political factors that lead to changes over time in the ecological impact of U.S. society, focusing on air pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Influential factors: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Political Processes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Media attention </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Public policy </li></ul></ul>
  • 4. Contributions <ul><li>Previous research has addressed: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The effect of policy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic theories </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Previous research as not addressed: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The role of the environmental movement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political agenda setting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Drivers of different pollutants </li></ul></ul>
  • 5. Air Pollution <ul><li>3 measures of air pollution, based on EPA criteria pollutants: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Index of Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), Carbon Monoxide (CO), and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.904 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nitrogen Oxides </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Particulate Matter smaller than 10 micrometers </li></ul></ul>
  • 6. Air Pollution Trends
  • 7. Driving Factors <ul><li>Political Processes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The environmental movement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political opportunities for the movement </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Political Agenda-Setting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Media attention </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Policy & Implementation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quality of policy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enforcement/implementation of policy </li></ul></ul>
  • 8. Political Processes <ul><li>Political Context </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Presence of Allies: Democrats in fed. gov’t </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Weak opposition: business interests </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Organizational resources: environmental movement actions </li></ul>
  • 9. Political Agenda <ul><li>Congressional hearings on the environment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Act as political openings </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Media Attention </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provides legitimacy & </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>salience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Places the environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>on the political agenda </li></ul></ul>
  • 10. Policy & Implementation <ul><li>Strength of policy </li></ul><ul><li>Implementation of policy </li></ul><ul><li>Policy implementation influenced by: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>environmental movement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>political opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>media </li></ul></ul>
  • 11. Measurement of Policy <ul><li>Coded federal legislation 1 on 3 criteria: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Enforcement powers (weighted double the other 2 criteria) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scope (broad or narrow) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Whether $ was earmarked into the bill </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Clean Air Act and Amendments coded separately and weighted higher </li></ul><ul><li>Yearly policy = positive laws - negative laws </li></ul>1 Reitze, Arnold W. 2001. Air Pollution Control Law: Compliance and Enforcement . Washington D.C.: The Environmental Law Institute.
  • 12. Methodology <ul><li>All variables first-differenced to detrend, and IVs lagged 1 year </li></ul><ul><li>OLS regression with base variables </li></ul><ul><li>Interaction analyses, with 1 interaction per regression </li></ul><ul><li>Very conservative model, with possible Type II errors </li></ul>
  • 13. Results: Index of SO 2 CO & VOCs n = 38 *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05; one-tailed 1.705 Durbin-Watson D-statistic 0.110 Adjusted R-squared -6.106 Constant 3.72 E-03 Movement Actions 0.320 Implementation Funding -3.64 E-03 Air Pollution Policy -6.18 E-04 * Media Attention (Logged) -1.66 E-02 Corporate Taxes 9.79 E-04 Congressional Hearings (Logged) -0.073 Democratic Unity -276384 Real GDP / Capita, squared 153.90 Real GDP / capita Coefficient Base Variables
  • 14. Results: NO x n = 38 *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05; one-tailed 1.618 Durbin-Watson D-statistic 0.470 Adjusted R-squared -1.436 Constant 1.88 E-03 Movement Actions 0.080 Implementation Funding -3.93 E-03 Air Pollution Policy -2.05 E-04 * Media Attention (Logged) 1.16 E-03 Corporate Taxes 5.94 E-04 Congressional Hearings (Logged) -0.038 Democratic Unity ** GDP & GDP squared F-Test for joint significance (P > F) -207073 ** Real GDP / Capita, squared 102.45 * Real GDP / capita Coefficient Base Variables
  • 15. Results: NO x Interactions *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05; one-tailed aaa p < 0.001, aa p < 0.01, a p < 0.05; two-tailed. 0.512 0.560 Adjusted R 2 -5.18 E-02 Democratic Unity 1.44 E-03 a Movement Actions -2.51 E-03 * Movement actions * Democratic Unity -3.04 E-03 Air Pollution Policy 2.15 E-03 aa Movement Actions -4.30 E-04 ** Movement actions * Air Pollution Policy Coef. Main Effects Coef. Interaction Variable
  • 16. NO x Explanatory Power
  • 17. Results: PM-10 n = 38 *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05; one-tailed 1.762 Durbin-Watson D-statistic 0.198 Adjusted R-squared -3.555 * Constant 5.96 E-04 Movement Actions 0.184 Implementation Funding -4.40 E-03 Air Pollution Policy -1.96 E-04 * Media Attention (Logged) 8.81 E-04 Corporate Taxes 2.55 E-04 Congressional Hearings (Logged) 0.030 Democratic Unity GDP & GDP squared F-Test for joint significance (P > F) -134973 * Real GDP / Capita, squared 60.92 Real GDP / capita Coefficient Base Variables
  • 18. Results: PM-10 Interactions *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05; one-tailed 0.330 Adjusted R 2 -4.85 E-05 Media Attention 1.12 E-03 Movement Actions -7.09 E-06 ** Movement actions * Media Attention Coef. Main Effects Coef. Interaction Variable
  • 19. PM-10 Explanatory Power
  • 20. Significant Effects Media Attention Air Pollution Policy Environmental Movement Actions Democratic Unity NO x Emissions - - + +
  • 21. Significant Effects Media Attention Environmental Movement Actions PM-10 Emissions - Index Emissions (SO 2 , CO, &VOCs) Media Attention -
  • 22. Conclusions <ul><li>Media Attention & the Political Agenda </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental movement must rely on political opportunities to be effective </li></ul><ul><li>Results not generalizeable across pollutants </li></ul>
  • 23. Acknowledgements Dr. Robert Brulle Dr. Jon Agnone Dr. J. Craig Jenkins Colleagues The Fay Graduate Fellowship Fund in Environmental Sciences NSF Grant #SES-0455215, “Civil Society & the Environment” Ohio State University Environmental Science Graduate Program Ohio State University Dept. of Sociology Funding & Resources

Related Documents