INTRODUCTION TO ENGINEERING AND THE ENVIRONMENT Edward S. Rubin Cnrlzegie Mrllnn...
- CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting Population...
PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis 7.000 ...
CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting Present Time - ...
642 PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis Example 15.1 Population growth of...
CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting Estimates of this sort may be used to anticipate the magnitude of futu...
PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis Exponential growth ...
CHAPTER 15 Environmcntal Porecastirlg Population I ...
PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis By manipulating Equation (1 5.5) we can further ...
CHAPTER I5 Environ~nent;~l ...
PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy A~lalysisAge Structure of a Population Data on overall birth and death...
I UFemales 1 Total = 273M ...
650 PART 4 Topics in En~ironmentalPolicy Analysis A population projection based on age-specific...
CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecastingtable 15.2 Summary of present and future population for Example 15.6 ...
PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysisassumed to change over time in the middle series Census Bureau projec...
CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting .niddle-, )lilt in ? 2 pop- : :sipled., ;Yam- : . and a..: {iiore ...
PART 4 Topics i n Environmental Policy A n a l y s i ~ Demographic models are thus limited in t...
PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis CO2 reduct~on: - ...
CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting 66715.6.1 Types of Technology ChangeSeveral ty...
PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis For instance, will the future use of an automo...
CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecaring Per The higher efticiencq of the advanced power plant technolog...
PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis Table 15.6 Typical technology lifetimes. ...
CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting The fraction that are CFC-free in 2005 will be ...
PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis As before, t,,, is the time needed to reach half...
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population models.pdf

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  • 1. INTRODUCTION TO ENGINEERING AND THE ENVIRONMENT Edward S. Rubin Cnrlzegie Mrllnn University with Cliff I. Davidson and other contributors Boston Burr Ridge, lL Dubuque, lA Madison, WI New York San Francisco St. Louis Bangkok Bogota Caracas Kuala Lumpur Lisbon London Madrid MexicoCity Milan Montreal NewDelhi Santiago Seoul Singapore Sydney Taipei Toronto
  • 2. - CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting Population growth Changes ill Changes in j growth environme~ltal i~npacta Technologq changeFigure 15.1 Basic elements of environmental forecasting, illustrating the three main "drivers" of population growth, economic activity, and technological change: Future changes in environmental impacts also can feed back to and affect these processes.reflect our current understanding of how the world works based on principles ofphysics, biology, and chemistry. Many of these science-based models of environ-mental processes also are dynamic, meaning they can predict how factors like pol-lutant concentrations will change over time in response to a specified input or stim-ulus such as an increase or decrease in emissions from human activities. The study of environmental engineering and science focuses mainly on develop-ing the science-based process models just described. Such models are essential forpredicting the environmental conscqucnces of changes in anthropogenic emissions,both now and in the future. In contrast, the study of population growth, economicactivity, and technological change lies primarily in fields of the social sciences, wheremathematical models also are used for prediction. Figure 15.1 illustrates some of thelinks between these social science models (reflecting human behavior) and the phys-ical science models of environmental processes. Both types of models are importantfor environmental forecasting. The social science models emphasized in this chapterprovide a broader perspective on the factors affecting environmental futures.15.4 POPULATION GROWTH MODELSAccording to the United Nations, the worlds population reached 6 billion people onOctober 12, 1999. The trend in world population growth through the end of the 20thcentury A.D. is shown in Figure 15.2. Over the past 100 years, the world population hasquadrupled. Although it took thousands of years for the population to grow to 1 bil-lion, the last billion people arrived in only 13 years! Several billion new neighbors areexpected to join us on the planet over the next several decades. Because populationgrowth is a major determinant of environmental impacts, we look first at how suchgrowth can be expressed in mathematical tenns and used for environmental modeling.
  • 3. PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis 7.000 6 billion on 1000 500 o 500 1000 1500 2000 BC RC Year (AD) Figure 15.2 World population growth, 1000 B.C. to 2000 A . D . (Source: Based on USDOC, 19990) Depending on the time frame and geographic region of concern, one could envi-sion a broad array of population trajectories, as illustrated in Figure 15.3. These includepopulations that grow quickly or slowly, as well as populations that stabilize, or thatdecline over time. The scope and purpose of an environmental analysis play a large rolein defining the importance and type of population prqjections needed. Each curve or trajectory in Figure 15.3 can be represented by an equation or math-ematical model. Indeed, virtually any path that can be envisioned can be representednumerically in an environmental forecast or scenario. The next sections present a setof population growth models that span a range of complexity. The parameters govern-ing the behavior of each model represent the variables of an environmental forecast orscenario. The value of key variables is often guided by analysis of historical data, butit is up to the analyst to specify how these parameters might change in the future. 115.4.1 Annual Growth Rate Model # 1One of the simplest and most common ways to quantify the growth of a population growth mte, r; expressed either as a percentage or asis to assume a corzstont ariril~al Ia fraction. For example, if a population grows at a rate of 2 percent per year, nextyears population will be 1.02 times greater than this years population, and the fol-lowing year it will be 1.02 times greater than that (an overall increase of 2.04 per-
  • 4. CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting Present Time - Future Figure 15.3 Possible trajectories of population change.cent). If the annual growth rate, r, is expressed as a fraction (such as 0.02), a generalexpression for the total population, after t years is P = Po (1 + r) [15.1]where Pu is the initial population at the time t = 0. This equation has the identical form as the compound annual interest equationused in engineering economics to calculate monetary growth (see Chapter 13j. The keycharacteristic of this equation is a nonlinear increase in the total quantity over time (beit population, money, or any other quantity that grows at a constant annual rate). Fig-ure 15.4 illustrates thls trend for three different rates of annual population growth. Thehigher the annual growth rate, the more dramatic the rise in population over time. 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time (years) Figure 15.4 Population increase for three annual growth rates based on a compound annual growth model.
  • 5. 642 PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis Example 15.1 Population growth of an urban area. The current population of an urban area is 1 million people. The region has experienced rapid growth at an annual rate of 7 percentlyear. City plan- ners and environmental officials anticipate that this annual growth rate will continue for the next 10 years. If so, what would the population be 10 years from now? Solution: Assuming a constant annual growth rate, use Equation (15.11 with PC,= 1 million, r = 0.07. and t = 10 years: Thus the population would double in 10 years at a 7 percentlyear rate of growth. The implication of a compound annual growth model is an ever-rising popula- tion. This type of model is frequently used in environmental forecasts or scenarios to estimate future environmental emissions from human activity. The simplest types of projections use population figures together with per capita measures of environ- mental impact, as in the next example. Example 15.2 Projected growth in municipal solid waste. Pleasantville is a city of 100,000 people that cur- rently collects 8 X lo7 kg (80,000 metric tons) of municipal solid waste (MSW) each year. The waste is disposed of in a sanitary landfill the city owns. Based on recent trends, the citys population is projected to grow at a rate of 3 percentlyear over the next 15 years. Assuming that per capita waste production remains constant over this period. how much additior~nl waste will the city have to collect and dispose of annually 15 years from now? Solution: First use Equation (15.1) to calculate the future population of the city 15 years from now, based on the 3 percentlyear annual growth rate: P = 100,000(1.03)~~ 155,800 people = The number of additional people is therefore Added population = 155,800 - 100,000 = 55,800 people The current annual waste generation per capita is 8 X 107kg MSWlperson = -- = 800 kglperson-yr 100.000 people Assuming this rate remains constant. the total additional waste generated 15 years from now would be Additional waste = (55,800 people) X (800kglperson-yr) = 4.5 X lo7 kg/yr = 45,000 metric tons
  • 6. CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting Estimates of this sort may be used to anticipate the magnitude of future environ-mental problcms. such as the need for additional landfill area or alternative methodsof waste disposal. Because the future is always uncertain, a good analysis alsoemploys a range of assumptions for key parameters that affect the outcomes of inter-est. In this case, both the annual population growth rate and the amount of waste gen-erated per person should be treated as uncertain. Similarly. different growth ratesmight apply to diflerent time periods, yielding a nulltiperiod growth model. Problemsat the end of the chapter include examples that illustrate these types of projections.15.4.2 Exponential Growth ModelThe annual growth models just described assunle that population increases occur inannual spurts at the end of each year. a process known as compound annual growth.This works well for compound annual interest added to a bank account, but a morerealistic model for population increases would be continuol~s.This can be modeledby shortening the time period for compound growth from annual to continuous. The growth:result is an alternative model of pure e.xporler~/icrl P = Po e" (15.2) This equation is based on the assumption that at any point in time the rate ofchange in population is proportional to the total population at that moment. Mathe-matically, this can be written aswhere the prvportionality constant, r is the growth rate expressed as a fraction of thccurrent population. The solution to this differential equation is Equation 115.2).where Po is the original population at time r = 0. Figure 15.5 compares the exponential growth model of Equation (15.2) with thecoinpound annual growth model of Equation (15.1). As you can see. the two modelsgivc very sirnilar results for low values of growth rates and time periods. But as r a n d tincrease, thcre is greater divergence, with the exponential model growing more rapidly. Example 15.3Exponential versus compound annual growth. In Example 15.2 the population of Plcasantvillewas assumcd to grow at a compound annual rate of 3 percentlyear for 15 years. Suppose insteadthat an exponential growth model had been used based on the same 3 pcrcent growth rate. Howwould ihis change the estimate of Plea~antvilles population 15 years from now.?Solution:Use Equation (15.2) with P:, = 100.000 peuple, r = O.Oj/yr, and t = 15 years:This compares to 155,800 people using the cu~npounii annual growth model. The diffcl-cncein this case is less than 1 percent. or an additional 1,000 people, assuming exponential growth.
  • 7. PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis Exponential growth Compound annual growth Figure 15.5 Comparison of two simple growth models. Increases in the worlds population over the past 5,000 years resemble an expo- jnential growth function. Over the past 100 years the rate of increase has beenapproximately 1.3 percentlyear. We know. however, that exponential growth cannotcontinue indefinitely. In an environment with finite space and finite resources to sup-port the needs of a population, growth eventually is curtailed. The next section pre-sents a mathematical model that exhibits such characteristics.15.4.3 Logistic Growth ModelBiologists have found that the population growth of many living organisms tends tofollow an S-shaped curve like the one sketched in Figure 15.6, a shape known as sig-moidal. Initially the population begins to grow exponentially, but over time thegrowth rate gradually slows until it finally reaches zero. At that point the populationstabilizes at the limit labeled P,,,, in Figure 15.6. This limit is known as the carry-ing capcrcih of the environment. It defines an equilibrium condition in which thetotal demands of the population for food, water, waste disposal, and natural resourcesare in balance with the capability of the environment to supply those needs. That bal-ance defines a stable level of population with no further growth. The result is knownas a logistic growth curve, represented by the sketch in Figure 15.6. The leveling-off phenomenon in a logistic growth model represents a resistanceto further growth as the population nears the carrying capacity of the environment.Mathematically, this can be represented by adding an "environmental resistance"term to the simple exponential growth model of Equation (15.3):1 1 Of course, over shorter periods and on smaller geographic scales, the population varies more erratically, especially due to catastrophes such as wars or famine.
  • 8. CHAPTER 15 Environmcntal Porecastirlg Population I TimeFigure 15.6 A logistic growth curve showing the characteristic S-shaped profile. Po is the initial population and t, is the time needed to reach half of the carrying capacity, P,,. Now instead o l population growth being proportional only to the current popu-lation, it dcpcnds also on the size of the current population relative to the carryingcapacity. P,,,,,,. When thc current population is small relative to the cax~yingcapac-ity, the negative (resistance) tcrm in Equation (15.4) is also small, and we have anexponential grouath model as beforc. But as P gets larger and approaches PI,,,,, theenvironmental resistance increases and thc term in brackets approaches zero. Thepopulation growth rate (dPldt) also then goes to zcro. Between these two extremesthe trend in total population transitions from an upward-bound curve to a horizontalasymptote. producing the S-shaped curve of a logistic growth modcl. Mathemati-cally, the solution to Equation (15.4) is The growth rate, r; in this equation represents a composite growth rate aver thesigmoidal shape of the logistic curve, so the value of r differs from that of the sim-ple exponential growth model shown earlier. The two rates can be related if wedeline an initial exponential growth rate. r,, associated with an initial population. Po,at ti~ile = 0. Then it can be shown that r Similarly, we can show that the constant t,, in Equation (15.5) represents thetime at which the population rcaches hulfthe carrying capacity (that is, the midpointof the growth curve). Thus a t t = t,,,, P = ! P r,ial ? (157 )
  • 9. PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis By manipulating Equation (1 5.5) we can further show that t,, and r are related by A numerical example best illustrates the use of a logistic growth model for pop- ulation projections.Example 15.4 Estimating the world population in 2100. Assume that world population growth can be described by a logistic zrowth model with a carrying capacity of 20 billion people. Estimate the global population in 2100 based on a current population of 6 billion in 2000 with an expo- nential growth rate of 1.5 percent. How would your answer differ if the carrying capacity were 15 billion people? nz Solution: iz, The desired population can be found using Equation (15.5) with t = 100 years. But first we ar, must find the logistic growth rate. K and the midpoint time, t,,,. From Equation (15.6). an trj trj Im rat From Equation (15.8). be1 Substituting these results into Equation (15.5) gives Th the p,,,,, - 20 P = 1 + r - r , - I ~ 15.7 billion + e - ~ , ~ ? ~ . i ~ ~ o - 3=. 5 ) aP This is the projected population 100 years from now, assuming a carrying capacity of 20 billion people. The value of t,, = 39.5 years indicates that a population of 10 billion people (half the carrying capacity) will be reached about 40 years from now. Repeating the calcula- Estir tion for a global carrying capacity of 15 billion (instead of 20 billion), the estimated popula- a crI tion in 2100 would be 13.4 billion people. By either estimate the worlds population would a nc more than double over the next 100 years based on these assumptions. perc Solu Bec; prob Logistic growth models are appealing because they reflect the type of long-term growth patterns that have actually been observed for n~icroorganisms,insects, and other life forms. A logistic model further offers a simple way of representing a long- term limit to growth and a gradual stabilization of the population. For human popu- ! lations, however, logistic models have been less successful in predicting carrying capacity and growth rates in the past. Rather. the value of carrying capacity seems to be a moving target that changes over time. The unique human capability for techno- 2 i On a logical innovation has led to developments such as modern medicine and fertilizers -
  • 10. CHAPTER I5 Environ~nent;~l Forecastingfor food production that continue to alter the apparent limit to global population.Thus a sinlple lvgistic model affords only a rough approximation based on assump-tions about key parameters. Because of the availability of detailed data on actualpopulation characteristics, other types of models are more commonly used to projectfuture population growth, as discussed next.15.4.4 Demographic ModelsDernographj is the study of the characteristics of human populations, including theirsize, age, gender. geographic distribution, and other statistics. The wealth of data onpopulation characteristics allows much more detailed models to be developed forpopulation projections in lieu of the models discussed so far. Population statistics are most commonly collected. analyzed, and reported on anational basis by individual countries, private organizations, and international organ-izations like the United Nations. The basic data needed for population projectionsare currcnt rates of births and deaths. The difference between these two rates givesan approximate mcasure of the vverall population growth rate. In addition, a coun- Iftry may gain or lose population via ~nigration. more people regularly enter a coun-try than leave, there is a net incrcase in the overall population growth rate. If the netimmigration rate is negative (more people leaving than entering): the overall growthrate is reduced. In general, we can write Growth rate = (Birth rate) - (Death rate) + (Immigration rate) (15.9) The rate4 in Equation (1 5.9) are typically quantified in terms of the annual num-bers of births, deaths, and immigrants per 1,000 people in the overall population.These overall statistics are referred to as the crude rates, which means they apply tothe population as a whole. as oppoqed to specific segments of the population such asa particular age group. Example 15.5Estimating populationgrowth rate. A country with a total population of 50 million people hasa crude birth rate of 20 births per year per 1.000 people, a crude death rate of 9 per 1.000, anda net immigration rate of I per 1.000. What is the net population growth rate expressed as apercentage of thc total populatiuri?Solution:Bccause we are interested only in rates. the absolute size of the population does not enter thisproblem. Using Equation (15.9). we have Growth rate = Birth rate - Death rate + Immigration rate = 20 - 9 + 1 [per 1,000 people/yr) = 12 per 1.000 people/yrOn a percentage basis this annual growth rate is 1.2 percent of the population.
  • 11. PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy A~lalysisAge Structure of a Population Data on overall birth and death rates, plus imnligra-tion statistics, allow us to construct an overall picture of population dynamics. Evenmore useful than the crude rates for the o ~ e r a l population are the age-sl~er~fic l rrrtesby gender. Combining such data with information on the oge sti.zrc,tirlr of a popula-tion allows much more accurate projections of near-term population trends. Figure 15.7 shows two exanlples of age-specific population distributions, illus-trating the number of males and females in the population for various age intervals."For clarity of presentation an age interval of five years is used in these figures, althougha one-year intenal is commonly used in population statistics. Notice the bulge in theUnited States in the middle years: this represents the baby boom cohort born after WorldWar 11. As this population ages; there will be an increasing percentage of people in thehigher age brackets. and the age distribution profile will flatten. In contrast, the shapeof the world population shows a predominantly younger population. This implies a sub-stantial growth in future population as younger people enter their reproductive years.Fertility Rates A key factor in population projections is the total fei-tilitj rate ofwomen in the population. A composite of the age-specific birth rates in a given year,this approximates the average number of children born to each woman during her life-time. The higher the total fertility rate, the larger the future population is likely to be. The rP~~lrrcer~lei~t rate is the average number of live births needed to fertilityreplace each female in the current population with one female in the next generation. L iIn modern industrialized countries this number is about 2.1, reflecting the slightly ihigher proportion of males that are born each year (its not exactly 50-50, as seen bythe higher number of males in the younger population in Figure 15.7) plus the num-ber of females who die before childbirth. An important factor here is the number ofnewborns who do not survive the first year of life. In poorer societies with littleaccess to the benefits of modern medicine and child care. the infant morrcrlih rntcJhistorically has been high. Successful efforts to reduce infant mortality thus can sig-nificantly impact the replacement fertility rate and the total number of newborns 1 iwho survive and contribute to the future population. Fertility rates that exceed the replacement rate create a pop~ilatioiziiloinerltuinthat leads to a sustained increase in population. The highest fertility rates in theworld today are found among developing countries, whose populations are growingmost rapidly (for example, fertility rates are above 7 in some African nations). Incontrast. fertility rates in many industrialized countries (Western Europe) are cur-rently about l .5. well below the replacement rate. At this level the overall populationwill gradually decline over several decades (barring an increase in immigration).Projecting Future Population A simple example illustrates how population growthcan be modeled using statistical data on age structure and age-specific birth rates anddeath rates. In order to simplify the arithmetic, the following example uses hypo-thetical data for a 10-year period rather than I-year intervals. * Most textbooks display the number of males and females in each age group side by side in the form of a population tree centered about the vertical axis. The graphical presentation in Figure 15.7, however, shows more clearly the differences in male and female populations in each age group.
  • 12. I UFemales 1 Total = 273M (mid-1999) U.S.population (millions) I Males I 3 Female3 Total = 5.996M (mld- 1999) 0 100 200 300 400 World population (millions)Figure 15.7 Age distribution of the U.S. and world populations in 1999. The U.S. population has a bulge in the middle age group, whereas the world population is markedly younger. The figure also shows that females outnumber males aher age 30 in the U.S. population and aher age 55 in the world population. (Source: Based on USDOC, 1999b and 1999c) 649
  • 13. 650 PART 4 Topics in En~ironmentalPolicy Analysis A population projection based on age-specific data. Table 15.1 shows the current age distri- bution for a hypothetical population of 500 million people. The age-specific birth rates and death rates also are shoa.11 based on data for the previous 10 years. Assuming these rates also apply for the next decade, calculate the total population and percentage of people in each ageE group expected 10 years froin now. Assume immigration is negligible.pPC Table 15.1 Populat~onstat~st~cs Example for 15 6t Births per Deaths per Age Group Current Population 1,000 People 1,000 People (Years) (Rlillions) (During 10 Years) (During 10 Years) 0-5 100 0 20 10-19 95 200 30 20-29 90 600 30 30-39 80 300 40 4040 60 100 50 50-59 40 0 100 60-69 20 0 300 70-79 10 0 500 80-89 4 0 700 50-09 1 0 1,000 Total 500 million Solution: - = - - 2r - First calculate the total number of births across all Ige groups oer the 10-year period. This - uill determ~nethe total number of children In the 0-9 ~Ige group in the next time period a - % -. .t declde from non The reproductive ages In t h ~ s example are the four groups between I 0 ,~nd I =8 49 bears old. For s~mplicity, rites are based on the t o t ~ l the populat~onof each age group rather than on the number of females. Thus 200 births Births to people aged 10-1 9 = 95 X 10"eople X - = 19 X 10 births 1.000 people Similarly. Births to people aged 20-29 = (90 X 10) (l!i:o) = 54 X 106 -- Births to people aged 30-39 = (80 X 10") = 32 X 10" 1 Summing over a11 age groups, the total number of children born over the next 10 years would be 19 i 54 + 32 + 6 = 1 l I million. This would be the population in the 0-9 age group I 10 years from now (that is, children who have not yet reached their 10th birthday ). Note that
  • 14. CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecastingtable 15.2 Summary of present and future population for Example 15.6 Population (in Millions) Percentage of TotalAge Group (Years) Current In 10 Years Current In 10 Years 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-3 9 4049 50-59 60-69 7U-79 SO-89 90-99 Totalthe infant mortality rate (for age 0 to 1 year) is not given separately in this example but ratheris accounted for in the overall death rate for the 0- to 9-year-old population. The remainder of the future population tree is quantified using the age-specific death ratesgiven in Table 15.1. For instance, Table 15.1 shows that the I00 million children currently in the0-9 age group will experience an average death rate of 20 per 1,000 (2.0 percent). This meansthat 98 percent of the 0-9 cohort will sunive and subsequently enter the 10-19 age group. Thus Future population Current population aged ) ( = aged 0-9 X (Fraction surviving)Similar calculations apply to all other age groups. Notice that for the oldest group (90-99years) the 10-year death rate in this example is 100 percent. meaning that no one in this agegroup survives past the 99th year. Table 15.2 summarizes the results of these calculations. The table shows how each agegroup in the current population moves into the next age group 10 years from now. Also shownis the percentage of the total population in each age group now and in the future. The result is a population of 578 million people 10 years from noM1.This represents a 16 per-cent increase over the current population. The percentage distributions also show an aging of thepopulation. with nearly 10 percent ovcr age 60 in the future compared to 7 percent currently. The preceding example used a 10-year age interval to sirnplify the computations.Also, population migration was assumed to be negligible. A more refined analysis.done on a computer, would use one-year age categories and time steps, along withgender-specific and age-specific population figures, birth rates, and death rates. Exam-ples of such projections appear in Figure 15.8(a),which shows the U.S. population pro-jected to the year 3050, as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau for three scenarios(labeled low, middle, and high series). Figure 15.8(b) shows how key parameters are
  • 15. PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysisassumed to change over time in the middle series Census Bureau projection. Differ-ent assumptions produced the higher and lower population projections. Figure 15.8(c) shows the 2050 population distribution resulting from the middleseries projections. Note that the profile is much more uniform than the 1999 profile inFigure 15.7(a). These projections imply a higher percentage of older people in the pop-ulation than today: In the oldest groups the population over 80 will have roughly tripled.These results have important implications for public policy and the economy. For exam-ple, demand is likely to increase for health care services (as opposed to schools) and asmaller percentage of the population will be in the workforce. At the same time more 1,200 - ----- Low series - - - High series / / / / / / Actual Forecast 0/ 0 Year (a) Year (b)Figure 15.8 U.S. population projections to 2050, showing [a] the low, middle, and high estimates of the U.S. Census Bureau, (b) key assumptions behind the middle (best estimate) projection, and [c) the best-estimate age distribution in 2050. (Source: Based on USDOC, 1999b and 1999c)
  • 16. CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting .niddle-, )lilt in ? 2 pop- : :sipled., ;Yam- : . and a..: {iiore 0 5 10 15 20 U.S. pop~~lation (millions) Figure 15.8 (continued) (c) senior citizens will be collecting Social Security benefits. The importance of population projections thus extends to a broad range of issues besides environmental impact$. The procedure used in Example 15.6 to calculate the total future population based on age-specific birthrates and death rates can be expressed in general mathe- matical terms. A more detailed mathematical model also would divide the popula- tion into males and females and include separate data on the age-specific popula- tions, fertility rates, and death rates by gender. The writing of such equations is a bit tedious but essential for programming advanced models. A taste of this appears as an exercise for students in the problems at the end of this chapter. Limitations of Demographic Models Even when using detailed population data in sophisticated demographic models, we must make assumnprions about how far into the future the current birth rates and death rates will prevail. In some cases mathe- matical models (including logistic models) have been proposed to estimate future changes in these parameters. But for the most part, assumptions about future fertil- ity rates, death rates. and immigration patterns remain a matter of judgment because the future remains uncertain. Assumptions about demographic parameters are often linked to assumptions about future economic development and standards of living. For instance. fertility rates and infant mortality rates are substantially lower among wealthier populations than among poorer regions of the world.
  • 17. PART 4 Topics i n Environmental Policy A n a l y s i ~ Demographic models are thus limited in their ability to jb~*ecrut long-term changes in population. On the other hand. they can be very useful for analyzing sce- izarios of future population trends under different conditions. The detailed population data of a demographic model also allow a richer set of "what if" questions to be asked, such as the effects of future changes in fertility rates and infant mortality rates. Such scenarios can reveal how policy actions might influence future population trends and hence environmental impacts. Demographic models also provide informa- tion on the size and age structure of the available labor force of the future. which pro- vides an important link to economic projections. as we shall discuss shortly. At the same time! demographic models are not always necessary or suitable for all types of environmental projections. Rather, in many situations the results of demographic projections can be used to estimate the parameter values needed for simpler models. Such a case is illustrated in the next example.Example 15.7 Estimating growth rates from population data. A demographic analysis projects the total pop- ulation of a region to grow from 500 inillion to 772 million over the next 30 years. If this pop- ulation increase were to be approximated by a simple exponential growth model. what is the implied annual groath rate? Solution: The exponential growth model was given earlier by Equation (15.2). In this case both the ini- tial and final populations are known. and we are solving for the growth rate. r; over a period of 30 years. Thus In most environmental forecast5 or scenarios. the size of the future population is only one determinant of future env~ronmental impacts. A second. closely related factor is the standard of living or affluence of a population. We look next at how the effects of economic development can be reflected in an analysis of environmental futures. 15.5 ECONOMIC GROWTH MODELS Suppose you wanted to estimate the total mass of pollutant emissions from automo- biles 25 years from now. One key factor in that analysis would be the number of cars in the future. That could depend on the future size of the popillation (the more peo- ple, the more cars), but it would also depend on how affordable a car is for the aver- age citizen. In general, the more affluent the society. the more vehicles per capita as
  • 18. PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis CO2 reduct~on: - 1 = Stabilize at 1990 levels 2 = 20% reduction below 1990 - 3 = 50% reduction below 1990 - Year -Fiaure 15.13 Macroeconomic model ~redictions U.S. GDP loss from a tax on carbon of emissions to control global warming. These average results across a large set of models predict that GDP losses will increase as C 0 2 emissions are reduced. [Source: IPCC, 1 996)environmental analysis, considerable care and judgment are required to exercise andinterpret the results of such models.15.6 TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGEWe have already touched on the importance of technological change to economicgrowth. Here we look at some of the more direct ways that technology change canaffect environmental forecasts or scenarios. Consider again, for example, the prob-lem of estimating air pollutant emissions from automobiles 25 years from now. Oreven 10 years from now. Not only will the number of cars on the road have changed(due to changes in population and standards of living), bul vehicle designs also willhave changed. Ten years from now a portion of the U.S. auto fleet is expected to beelectric cars powered by batteries or fuel cells, which emit no air pollution directly.The design of conventional gasoline-powered vehicles also will have improved toemit fewer air pollutants than todays cars. Average energy consumption also mighlchange significantly. Vehicles of the future might use more energy than today (froma continuing trend to large sports utility vehicles), or they might require less energy(from a transition to smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles). These are examples of technological changes that can influence an environ-mental forecast or scenario. In this section we examine some of the ways that tech-nological change can be considered analytically. The emphasis will be on relativelysimple approaches that can be used easily in environmental analysis.
  • 19. CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting 66715.6.1 Types of Technology ChangeSeveral types of technology changes can be important for environmental analysis: Irnprnvernerzts to a current tecl~nologjdesign. Incremental changes can reduce the environmental impacts of a current technology, typically via improvcmcnts in energy efficiency or a reduction in pollutant emission rates. An example would be an automobile with an improved catalyst or engine design emitting fewer hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides per mile of travel. Substitz~tinn f an alternative technology. Replacing a current tcchnology with o a different design often can provide the same basic service with reduced envi- ronmental emissions-for instance. replacing a gasoline-powered car with an electric vehicle, or an existing coal-fired power plant with an advanced pas- powered or wind-powered plant. However. the direct and indirect emJ~ronmcn- tal impacts of the alternative technology mcst be carefully evaluated relative to the current technology design. New classes o f teclznologq. This extension of the previous case encompasses technologies that offer a whole new way of doing things. For example, [he automobile prov~deda new mode of pcrsonal transportation as an alternative to bicycles or horsc-drawn buggies. Airplanes were a later example of an cntirely new mode of transportation technology. The future environmental impacts of new classes of technology are inherently more difficult to cvaluate than those of the technologies we know. Moreover, some indlrect environmen- tal impacts may be totally unforcscen (such a5 the extensive urban sprawl pro- moted by thc growth of automobiles). Clzange irl tecl~nology utiliiatinn. Engineers are primarily concerned with the design of technology, but the deployrrlerlt and utilization of technology deter- mine its aggregate environ~~lental impact. Environmental forecasts or scenarios must therefore cons~der how technology utilization might change in the future.Technological innovation has changed the face of personal transportation in the 20th century. Imagine how things mightlook 50 or 100 years from now.
  • 20. PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis For instance, will the future use of an automobile (average distance driven per year) be the same or greater than today? Or might advances in air transporta- tion or a growth in electronic commerce and telecommuting reduce the aver- age usage of automobiles in the future? The answers to such questions, and the importance of technological change. depend on the time frame of interest and the scope or objectives of the analysis. The further out in time we go, the more important these issues are likely to become. Next we discuss a few simple ways of incorporating technology change into environmen- tal analysis. 15.6.2 Scenarios of Alternative Technologies Perhaps the most direct way of modeling technological change is to postulate a tran- sition from current technology to some improved or alternative technology. For instance, to characterize future emissions from automobiles, we could ask what might happen if x percent of future automobiles y years from now were battery-powered electric vehicles. What impact would this have on total air pollutant emissions and urban smog? A scenario of this type does not try to forecast the actual number of electric vehicles in the future. Rather. it asks a hypothetical question to assess the potential air quality benefits of an alternative technology. The mathematical model in this case would quantitatively characterize the alter- native technology. Key attributes of a technology for environmental analysis might include the types and quantities of air emissions, water pollutants, and solid wastes that are emitted: the fuel or energy consumption required for operation; and the nat- ural resource requirements and materials needed for construction and operation of the technology. The environmental analysis also should capture any important indirect impacts of concern, such as emissions from the manufacturing or disposal of a new technology. Chapter 7 discussed this type of life cycle approach to environmental analysis, which applies to future technologies as well as to present-day systems.Example 15.1 1 Future C 0 2 reductions from a new technology. Coal-burning power plants in many develop- ing countries have an average efficiency of about 30 percent and emit approximately 1.1 kg of carbon dioxide (COz) for each kW-hr of electricity generated. C 0 2 is a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming. The amount of C 0 2 released is directly proportional to the amount of coal burned. What if all future coal plants in these countries utilized advanced coal gasification combined cycle technology with an efficiency of 50 percent? How much would the CO, emission rate be reduced compared to plants uaing current technology? Solution: Recall that efficiency (p) is defined as the useful energy output of a process (in this case, electricity from the power plant) divided by the energy input (in this case, the fuel energy in coal). Thus Electrical energy output Efficiency (p) = --- Coal energy input
  • 21. CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecaring Per The higher efticiencq of the advanced power plant technology means that less coalra- energy input is needed to achieve a gi~en electrical output. Thuser-mge, Because C 0 2 emissions are proportional to the amount of coal burned, wc also havt: TheYextmen- Thus the advanced plant uould emit 10 percent less CO, than the current plant design. Its C 0 2 emission rate uould be Iran- For:~isht; c.l-?d, Scenarios like this can provide a simple way of estimating the potential envi- .~nd ronmental benefits of an advanced technology. IT the results look interesting. a more.-,: , > f sophisticated analysis would be needed to assess the feasibility of actually achieving 4uch a result. 15.6.3 Rates of Technology Adoption An important question in environmental forecasts is how long it takes for a new or improved technology to achieve widespread use. Chapter 6, for exa~nple.discussed the design of more energy-efficient refrigerators that eliminate the CFCs (chloroflu- orocarhonsl responsible for stratospheric ozone depletion. Such refrigerators first came on the markct in the mid-1990s. But how long will it take until all U.S. house- holds have these improved refrigerators? The answer is important for predicting at~rlosphericCFC levels, as well as energy-related environmental impacts. Phe speed with which a new technology is adopted depends on many factors. Three of the most important are its price. its useful lifetime, and the number of com- peting options. High prices and many competing options inhibit the adoption of a new technology. So does a long useful lifelime because existing technologies are not quickly replaced. A number of methods are used to model the rate of adoption of new tcchnology-some complex, others relatively simple. Three of these methods are highlighted here. Specified Rate of Change The most direct method of introducing a new technology is to ~pecify rate of adoption or diffusion into the economy. In general. that rate its will depend on the growth of new markets for the technology, plus the opportunity to replace cxisting technologies at the end of their useful lives. The expected useful lifetime is thus an important parameter controlling the rate of adoption of a new technology. Table 15.6 shows the typical life of several technologies relevant to envi- ronmental projections.
  • 22. PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis Table 15.6 Typical technology lifetimes. Technology Typical Lifetime (yearsy Light bulbs 1-2 Personal computers 3-8 Automobiles 10-15 Refrigerators 15-20 Petrochemical plants 2040 Power plants 30-50 Buildings 50-100 " Some internal components or subsystems may be replaced more frequently. For the case of the household refrigerator, the expected useful life is about 18 years. If we assume a constant rate of replacement, this means that 1118th (5.6 per- cent) of all current refrigerators must be replaced each year for the next 18 years. This defines the maximum rate of introduction for the improved refrigerator design discussed earlier-at least in the replacement market. The growth of new markets offers additional opportunities for adopting the improved technology; the size of this market depends mainly on population and economic growth.Example 15.12 Adoption of CFC-free refrigerators. Assume that all 120 million household refrigerators in the United States in 1995 are replaced with improved CFC-free refrigerators at the end of an 18-year lifetime. Assume further that population and economic growth increase the demand for new refrigerators by 2.0 million units per year over the next 10 years, and that all of these units are CFC-free. Estimate the percentage of all household refrigerators that are CFC-free in 2005. Solution: Since we are not given the age distribution of existing refrigerators. assume that each year 1118th of all existing refrigerators die and are replaced with CFC-free models. Thus 1 Replacement units/yr = - (120 M) = 6.67 million units/yr 18 In addition, there is new demand of 2.0 million unitslyear from population and economic growth. Thus Total new units/yr = Replacement units/yr + New demand/yr = 6.67 M + 2.0 M = 8.67 M units/yr So after 10 years (in 2005) the total number of CFC-free units will be 8.67 X 10 = 86.7 M. The total number of refrigerators altogether will be Total units in 2005 = 120 M (as of 1995) + 20 M (new growth) = 140 M
  • 23. CHAPTER 15 Environmental Forecasting The fraction that are CFC-free in 2005 will be 2005 fraction of - 86.7 M CFC-free unils ) - 140 M = 0.62 or 62% The fraction of CFC-free units will continue to grou for another eight years until it reaches 100 percent. Specified Market Share In Example 15.12 the only new refrigerator technology available after 1995 was the CFC-free design. In this case environmental laws actu- ally prohibit the continued use of CFCs in new units. In general, though, a new or improved technology must compete with alternative options in the marketplace. In that case the adoption rate of a new technology depends not only on the size of the market, but also on its market share. One way to model the diffusion of a new technology is to s p e r i the market bout 18 share at different points in time. For instance, one could assume that 10 percent ofI 5.6 per- all new cars sold in 2005 will be electric vehicles. A more detailed specification18 years. might take the shape of a logistic curve like the ones illustrated in Figure 15.14. This.rr design type of S-shaped curve is frequently used to model the gradual diffusion of a new markets technology into the marketplace. The mathematical form of a logistic model was 7 5 of this presented earlier in Section 15.4.3, where it was used to approximate population growth. Here we use it to represent the growth in market share of a new technology. All we have to do is to redefine the variable P as percentage market share rather than population. So if we define P(r) as the percentage share of the market at time t, and P,,, as the maximunl market share (up to 100 percent). then:-rators in 2nd of an- 2 demand :I1 of these CFC-free Slow growth each year to 100% Rapid growth to 70% Moderate growth to 40% I * Time 0 Figure 15.14 Logistic models of growth in technology market share for three scenarios involving different growth rates and final market share.
  • 24. PART 4 Topics in Environmental Policy Analysis As before, t,,, is the time needed to reach half the maximum value. and r is a composite growth rate given by 7" where r, is the initial growth rate. In this case the characteristic time constants and growth rate for a logistic model would depend on the technology of interest.Example 1 5.13 A logistic growth model for new technology adoption. An auto industry analyst believes it will take 15 years for electric vehicles (EVs) to gain a 50 percent share of near auto sales once the initial share reaches 10 percent. Based on a logistic growth curve and an initial growth rate of 5 percentlyear, how long would it take for EVs to gain 90 percent of the new car market? Solution: Assume the maximum possible market share is 100 percent. The logistic growth rate. r; from Equation (15.12) is We want to find the t ~ m e t, at which the market share reaches 90 percent. Thus we use , Equation (15.11) and solve for t based on P(r) = 90 and t,,, = 15 years. Rearranging Equation (15.1 I) gives ,-0 0556(1- 15) = 0 11 I t = 55 years Remember that this means 55 years from the time the market share reaches 10 percent. (We are not told in this problem how lonp it will take to achieve that initial market share. That requires a separate analysis.) Consumer Choice Models Instead of directly specifying the market share or adop- tion rate of a new technology, some forecasting models introduce new technolo- gies based on consumer preferences. Usually this is based on economic criteria. In such models the capital and operating costs of a new technology are specified along with those of all competing technologies. The model (typically a computer t program) then selects the cheapest option. The cost of a new technology may i change over time. A limit also may be imposed on its maximum market share to 1 reflect the role of noneconomic factors in technology choice decisions. In some

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