Natural Gas for Alaskans
BRAD KEITHLEY, PRESIDENT
KEITHLEY CONSULTING, LLC
BGKEITHLEY.COM
Southcentral Region Chapter
Reti...
A way to think about the
issue …
Supply
 Cook Inlet
 North Slope
 Imported LNG
Markets
 Southcentral
 Fairbanks
 Coa...
Cook Inlet …
 Remember 2009-10:
 Anchorage test drills – red, yellow, green
 Since, decline largely has been stabilized...
North Slope …
 Significant resource (35+ Tcf), but remote from market
 Various legislative efforts over the years to dev...
Imported LNG …
 Potential supply source to
 Southcentral
 Coastal Alaska (including Southeast)
 Fairbanks (from North ...
Outlook by market …
 Southcentral
 Continued dependence on Cook Inlet in near term (on
relatively short (4 year) leash)
...
Outlook by market …
 Coastal Alaska
 If natural gas at all, will be supplied by LNG (or possibly,
CNG)
 Southeast most ...
Going forward …
 Near term
 Continued uncertainty pending decision on Alaska
LNG project (FID 2017 – 2019)
 Continued “...
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Natural gas for alaskans (4.8.2014)

Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: News & Politics      Business      Technology      
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Transcripts - Natural gas for alaskans (4.8.2014)

  • 1. Natural Gas for Alaskans BRAD KEITHLEY, PRESIDENT KEITHLEY CONSULTING, LLC BGKEITHLEY.COM Southcentral Region Chapter Retired Public Employees of Alaska April 8, 2014
  • 2. A way to think about the issue … Supply  Cook Inlet  North Slope  Imported LNG Markets  Southcentral  Fairbanks  Coastal (include Southeast)  Rural
  • 3. Cook Inlet …  Remember 2009-10:  Anchorage test drills – red, yellow, green  Since, decline largely has been stabilized through  Completion of Cook Inlet Storage (supplemental source of peak demand)  Additional drilling in existing fields  Legislative response “Cook Inlet Recovery Act” (2010)  Has resulted in some exploration activity by start-up (and in some cases, severely underfunded) independents  But no significant supply additions as of yet (watch for news around Furie’s proposed new platform)  Going forward  Absent significant new discoveries, supply will continue to run on about a four year lead time
  • 4. North Slope …  Significant resource (35+ Tcf), but remote from market  Various legislative efforts over the years to develop a path to market  Stranded Gas Act (1998)  Alaska Natural Gas Development Authority (ANGDA) (2002)  Fiscal Contract (2006)  Alaska Gasline Inducement Act (AGIA) (2007)  Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) (2012-13)  Most recent, SB 138 (Alaska LNG) (2014)  Current activity  Best option: major export pipeline with in-state offtakes  Alternative: instate only (challenged economics)
  • 5. Imported LNG …  Potential supply source to  Southcentral  Coastal Alaska (including Southeast)  Fairbanks (from North Slope via truck)  Currently  Only one advancing is Fairbanks LNG project, and facing challenged economics  Southcentral import potential reached a peak in 2011-12, on back burner currently but being kept on low simmer  Plans focused on Southeast exist, but severely challenged economics due to lack of market density (may improve if West Coast Canadian export projects crystalize)
  • 6. Outlook by market …  Southcentral  Continued dependence on Cook Inlet in near term (on relatively short (4 year) leash)  Long term resolved if Alaska LNG crystalizes  If not, state likely to resuscitate in-state (AGDC) option, but challenged economics if Pacific Rim LNG price drops  Fairbanks  Trucked LNG project possible, but financing somewhat undermined by potential for Alaska LNG project  Long term resolved if Alaska LNG crystalizes  If not and AGDC option also fails, hard look at pipeline to link to Southcentral supplies
  • 7. Outlook by market …  Coastal Alaska  If natural gas at all, will be supplied by LNG (or possibly, CNG)  Southeast most likely market, and likely only if Canadian West Coast LNG exports crystalize  Rural Alaska  Long term resolved for communities located along the route if Alaska LNG crystalizes  Other areas need to focus on renewables and other alternative sources  One (remote) potential, Meera Kohler’s gas-by-wire project
  • 8. Going forward …  Near term  Continued uncertainty pending decision on Alaska LNG project (FID 2017 – 2019)  Continued “just in time” development of Cook Inlet supplies for next several years  Longer term  Increased certainty for Southcentral and Fairbanks if Alaskan LNG project crystalizes  If it does not, increased focus on AGDC and imported LNG alternatives

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