Everyone isNow Saying It
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller33.312.5-17.146.1-30-10103050Dow S&P NASDAQ Real EstateJanuary 2000 – April 2013Return on Inves...
9095100105110Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan FebPending Home SalesNAR 3/2013100 = Historically Healthy...
8090100110Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2013 2012 2011January 2012 – December 2012January 2011 – December...
Analyst New PreviousBank of America 8% 4.7%Capital Economics 8% 5%Deutsche Bank 7% 2.5%Freddie Mac 4.5% 2%John Burns Consu...
S&P Case Shiller National Pricing Index1201301401501601701801902002006 – 2012KCM 3/2013 Case Shiller
020406080100120140160180200S&P Case Shiller National Pricing IndexKCM 3/2013 Case Shiller1987 – 2012
1201301402010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012KCM 3/2013 Case Shiller2010 – 2012S&P Case Shiller National Pric...
Home PriceExpectation Survey
Home Price Expectation Survey 3/2013Home Price Expectation SurveyThe nationwide panel of 118 economists, realestate expert...
3.6%10.4%-5.8%5.1%4.1%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%Pre-Bubble(1987-1999)Bubble(Jan 00-Apr07)Bust(May 07-Oc...
4.64.23.8 3.8 3.701234562013 2014 2015 2016 2017Home Price Expectation SurveyProjected Percentage IncreaseHome Price Expec...
Cumulative Appreciation by 201722.0%34.2%22.0%11.7%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%Pre-Bubble Trend Bulls All Projections BearsHom...
Percentage Appreciation by Survey3.63.92.73.21.42.64.64.200.511.522.533.544.555.562013 20143 Years Ago 2 Years Ago 1 Year ...
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case Shiller 3/2013
-3.9%-3.5%-2.5%-1.7%-0.5%0.6%1.1%2.0%3.6%4.3%5.5%6.8%8.1%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov D...
Metropolitan Area Year-over-YearAtlanta 13.4%Boston 4%Charlotte 6%Chicago 3.3%Cleveland 4.8%Dallas 7%Denver 9.2%Detroit 13...
Home Prices in the Short Term130.00135.00140.00145.00150.00May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr2010-112011-1...
Metropolitan Area M-o-MAtlanta 1.0%Boston 0%Charlotte .2%Chicago -.9%Cleveland -.5%Dallas 0%Denver 0%Detroit -.9%Las Vegas...
3.253.53.7544.2530 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History1/2012 – 4/2013Federal Reserve 4/2013
The MBA projects 30 yearmortgage rates will hit 4.3%by the end of the year…Mortgage Rates Moving Forwardand, they havealre...
3.33.353.43.453.53.553.63.651/3 1/10 1/17 1/24 1/31 2/7 2/14 2/21 2/28 3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4Rate 3.34 3.4 3.38 3.42 3.53 ...
The Move-Up SellerPrice Rate P&I2006 $400,000 6.5 $2,528.27Today $300,000 3.5 $1,347.13Monthly Savings $1,181.14
Price P&IOver 12 Months $14,173.68Over 30 Year Mortgage $425,210.40The Move-Up Seller
Opportunity Still Exists - For Now“Although buying a home is still cheaper thanrenting, the gap is closing. In 2013, home ...
Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale4.05.06.07.08.09.010.0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr M...
040,00080,000120,000160,000200,0004Q20091Q20102Q20103Q20104Q20101Q20112Q20113Q20114Q20111Q20122Q20123Q20124Q2012OCC Mortga...
OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report 3/20130200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0004Q20091Q20102Q20103Q2010...
Cheaper to Buy than RentTrulia 3/2013“Today’s it is 44% cheaper to buy versusrent. In fact, homeownership ischeaper than r...
Trulia 3/2013http://trends.truliablog.com/vis/rentvsbuy-winter-2013Cheaper to Buy than Rent
20%25%30%35%Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan FebPercentage of Distressed Property Sales35%25%NAR 3/2013
Everyone isNow Saying It
Projected Home Prices - 2013“Home prices continue toshow momentum amidshrinking inventory andrecord high affordability,pro...
Projected Home Prices - 2013“Strong demand and tight inventory have broughtexisting home sales back to ‘normal’ levels, an...
Morgan Stanley“Strong momentum in home prices as well ashousing activity gave Morgan Stanley analystsenough confidence to ...
3.253.53.7544.251/2012 – 4/2013The Bottom?30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage HistoryFederal Re...
Recent Rate MovementFreddie Mac 4/20133.33.353.43.453.53.553.63.6530 Year FixedRate MortgageThis Year
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesMetropolitan Area Year-over-YearAtlanta 13.4%Boston ...
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case Shiller 3/2013Metropolitan Area M-o-MAtlant...
ResourcesKEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COMSlide Slide Title Link4,5 Pending Home Sales http://www.realtor.org6 Future Price Projec...
ResourcesKEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COMSlide Slide Title Link33 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org3...
“Trend spotting, knowing what’s ahead (ahead of yourcompetition), can create enormous advantages. But to seefuture trends ...
April Market Trends Report
April Market Trends Report
April Market Trends Report
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April Market Trends Report

Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - April Market Trends Report

  • 1. Everyone isNow Saying It
  • 2. MSN Money.com, Case Shiller33.312.5-17.146.1-30-10103050Dow S&P NASDAQ Real EstateJanuary 2000 – April 2013Return on Investment
  • 3. 9095100105110Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan FebPending Home SalesNAR 3/2013100 = Historically Healthy Level
  • 4. 8090100110Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2013 2012 2011January 2012 – December 2012January 2011 – December 2011100 = Historically Healthy LevelNAR 3/2013Pending Home Sales
  • 5. Analyst New PreviousBank of America 8% 4.7%Capital Economics 8% 5%Deutsche Bank 7% 2.5%Freddie Mac 4.5% 2%John Burns Consulting 9.1% 5.3%J.P. Morgan 7% 3%Morgan Stanley 7% 5%NAR 7% 4%Zelman & Associates 7% 5.5%Zillow 4.2% 2.9%Future Price ProjectionsWall Street Journal 3/2013
  • 6. S&P Case Shiller National Pricing Index1201301401501601701801902002006 – 2012KCM 3/2013 Case Shiller
  • 7. 020406080100120140160180200S&P Case Shiller National Pricing IndexKCM 3/2013 Case Shiller1987 – 2012
  • 8. 1201301402010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012KCM 3/2013 Case Shiller2010 – 2012S&P Case Shiller National Pricing Index
  • 9. Home PriceExpectation Survey
  • 10. Home Price Expectation Survey 3/2013Home Price Expectation SurveyThe nationwide panel of 118 economists, realestate experts and investment and marketstrategists expects home values to end 2013 upan average of 4.6 percent according to the firstquarter Home Price Expectations Survey.Projected Home Prices - 2013
  • 11. 3.6%10.4%-5.8%5.1%4.1%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%Pre-Bubble(1987-1999)Bubble(Jan 00-Apr07)Bust(May 07-Oct11)Recoveryto Date(Nov 11-Jan 13 )Expectations(2013-2017)Average Annual AppreciationHome Price Expectation Survey 3/2013
  • 12. 4.64.23.8 3.8 3.701234562013 2014 2015 2016 2017Home Price Expectation SurveyProjected Percentage IncreaseHome Price Expectation Survey 3/2013
  • 13. Cumulative Appreciation by 201722.0%34.2%22.0%11.7%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%Pre-Bubble Trend Bulls All Projections BearsHome Price Expectation Survey 3/2013
  • 14. Percentage Appreciation by Survey3.63.92.73.21.42.64.64.200.511.522.533.544.555.562013 20143 Years Ago 2 Years Ago 1 Year Ago NowHome Price Expectation Survey 3/2013
  • 15. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case Shiller 3/2013
  • 16. -3.9%-3.5%-2.5%-1.7%-0.5%0.6%1.1%2.0%3.6%4.3%5.5%6.8%8.1%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec JanYear-over-Year Change in PricesJan Feb Mar Apr MayS&P Case Shiller 3/2013S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
  • 17. Metropolitan Area Year-over-YearAtlanta 13.4%Boston 4%Charlotte 6%Chicago 3.3%Cleveland 4.8%Dallas 7%Denver 9.2%Detroit 13.8%Las Vegas 15.3%Los Angeles 12.1%Metropolitan Area Year-over-YearMiami 10.8%Minneapolis 12.1%New York .6%Phoenix 23.2%Portland 8.3%San Diego 9.8%San Francisco 17.5%Seattle 8.7%Tampa 8.9%Washington 5.9%S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case Shiller 3/2013
  • 18. Home Prices in the Short Term130.00135.00140.00145.00150.00May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr2010-112011-122012-13S&P Case Shiller 3/2013PROJECTED?
  • 19. Metropolitan Area M-o-MAtlanta 1.0%Boston 0%Charlotte .2%Chicago -.9%Cleveland -.5%Dallas 0%Denver 0%Detroit -.9%Las Vegas 1.6%Los Angeles .9%Metropolitan Area M-o-MMiami .8%Minneapolis -.5%New York .1%Phoenix 1.1%Portland -.4%San Diego -.6%San Francisco 0.1%Seattle -.3%Tampa .9%Washington -.7%S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case Shiller 3/2013
  • 20. 3.253.53.7544.2530 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History1/2012 – 4/2013Federal Reserve 4/2013
  • 21. The MBA projects 30 yearmortgage rates will hit 4.3%by the end of the year…Mortgage Rates Moving Forwardand, they havealready started toinch upward…MBA 3/2013
  • 22. 3.33.353.43.453.53.553.63.651/3 1/10 1/17 1/24 1/31 2/7 2/14 2/21 2/28 3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4Rate 3.34 3.4 3.38 3.42 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.56 3.51 3.52 3.63 3.53 3.57 3.54Recent Rate MovementFreddie Mac 4/201330 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage2013
  • 23. The Move-Up SellerPrice Rate P&I2006 $400,000 6.5 $2,528.27Today $300,000 3.5 $1,347.13Monthly Savings $1,181.14
  • 24. Price P&IOver 12 Months $14,173.68Over 30 Year Mortgage $425,210.40The Move-Up Seller
  • 25. Opportunity Still Exists - For Now“Although buying a home is still cheaper thanrenting, the gap is closing. In 2013, home pricesshould rise faster than rents, and mortgage ratesare likely to rise in the next year as the economyimproves. …People who didn’t buy a homelast year may have missed the bottom of themarket, but they haven’t completely missedthe boat. Buying remains cheaperthan renting in all 100 large metros.”Trulia 3/2013Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist
  • 26. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale4.05.06.07.08.09.010.0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan FebNAR 3/20135-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
  • 27. 040,00080,000120,000160,000200,0004Q20091Q20102Q20103Q20104Q20101Q20112Q20113Q20114Q20111Q20122Q20123Q20124Q2012OCC Mortgage Metrics Report 3/2013Completed Foreclosures
  • 28. OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report 3/20130200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0004Q20091Q20102Q20103Q20104Q20101Q20112Q20113Q20114Q20111Q20122Q20123Q20124Q2012in millionsForeclosures in Process
  • 29. Cheaper to Buy than RentTrulia 3/2013“Today’s it is 44% cheaper to buy versusrent. In fact, homeownership ischeaper than renting in all of America’s100 largest metros. That’s becausefalling mortgage rates have keptbuying almost as affordable, relativeto renting, as it was last year.”
  • 30. Trulia 3/2013http://trends.truliablog.com/vis/rentvsbuy-winter-2013Cheaper to Buy than Rent
  • 31. 20%25%30%35%Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan FebPercentage of Distressed Property Sales35%25%NAR 3/2013
  • 32. Everyone isNow Saying It
  • 33. Projected Home Prices - 2013“Home prices continue toshow momentum amidshrinking inventory andrecord high affordability,prompting us to revise upour original forecast (4.7%)for home prices this year.Bank of AmericaWe now expect nationalhome prices to increase8% this year.”Bank of America 3/2013
  • 34. Projected Home Prices - 2013“Strong demand and tight inventory have broughtexisting home sales back to ‘normal’ levels, andfurther gains are possible…These conditions, combined with broadereconomic indicators, lead CapitalEconomics to revise its previousforecast of a 5 percent price gainthis year up to 8 percent.”Capital EconomicsDSNews 3/2013
  • 35. Morgan Stanley“Strong momentum in home prices as well ashousing activity gave Morgan Stanley analystsenough confidence to upgradetheir home price appreciationprojections to roughly 7%(from 5%) for 2013.Projected Home Prices - 2013HousingWire 3/2013
  • 36. 3.253.53.7544.251/2012 – 4/2013The Bottom?30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage HistoryFederal Reserve 4/2013
  • 37. Recent Rate MovementFreddie Mac 4/20133.33.353.43.453.53.553.63.6530 Year FixedRate MortgageThis Year
  • 38. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesMetropolitan Area Year-over-YearAtlanta 13.4%Boston 4%Charlotte 6%Chicago 3.3%Cleveland 4.8%Dallas 7%Denver 9.2%Detroit 13.8%Las Vegas 15.3%Los Angeles 12.1%Metropolitan Area Year-over-YearMiami 10.8%Minneapolis 12.1%New York .6%Phoenix 23.2%Portland 8.3%San Diego 9.8%San Francisco 17.5%Seattle 8.7%Tampa 8.9%Washington 5.9%S&P Case Shiller 3/2013
  • 39. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case Shiller 3/2013Metropolitan Area M-o-MAtlanta 1.0%Boston 0%Charlotte .2%Chicago -.9%Cleveland -.5%Dallas 0%Denver 0%Detroit -.9%Las Vegas 1.6%Los Angeles .9%Metropolitan Area M-o-MMiami .8%Minneapolis -.5%New York .1%Phoenix 1.1%Portland -.4%San Diego -.6%San Francisco 0.1%Seattle -.3%Tampa .9%Washington -.7%
  • 40. ResourcesKEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COMSlide Slide Title Link4,5 Pending Home Sales http://www.realtor.org6 Future Price Projections http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/03/27/home-prices-seen-making-stronger-gains-in-2013/11,12,13,14,15Projected Home Prices – 2013,Average Annual Appreciation, HomePrice Expectation Survey, CumulativeAppreciation by 2017, PercentageAppreciation by Surveyhttps://www.pulsenomics.com/uploads/Q12013_ZHPES_Press_Release_Final.pdf16,17,18, 19,20S&P Case-Chiller Home Price Indices,Home Prices in the Short Termhttp://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=124534934812621, 2330 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History,Recent Rate Movementhttp://www.freddiemac.com/pmms22 Mortgage Rates Moving Forward http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-2426 Opportunity Still Exists – For Now http://info.trulia.com/rentvsbuy-winter201327 Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org28,29Completed Foreclosures,Foreclosures in Progresshttp://www.occ.gov/publications/publications-by-type/other-publications-reports/mortgage-metrics-2012/m30,31 Cheaper to Buy than Rent http://trends.truliablog.com/2013/03/rent-vs-buy-winter-2013
  • 41. ResourcesKEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COMSlide Slide Title Link33 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org36 Projected Home Prices - 2013http://www.dsnews.com/articles/capital-economics-revises-home-price-forecast-upward-2013-03-0837 Projected Home Prices – 2013http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/03/20/housing-track-improve-hurdles-remain-morgan-stanley38,3930 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History,Recent Rate Movementhttp://www.freddiemac.com/pmms40,41 S&P Case-Chiller Home Price Indiceshttp://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245349348126
  • 42. “Trend spotting, knowing what’s ahead (ahead of yourcompetition), can create enormous advantages. But to seefuture trends and have the courage to act on them you needto ‘think different’ as an Apple ad campaign once advised.Trying to spot coming opportunities with your currentassumptions and preconceived notions won’t work.Finding the Next Big Thing requires new knowledgeand new ways of thinking.”The Next Big Thing

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