KCM Divided into
Three Sections
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
Jan
2012
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2013
Feb Mar Apr May Jun ...
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% Sales +/- -12% -5.1% 0.2% 0.3% 2.4% 5%
-12%
-5.1%
.2% .3% 2.4%
5%
-1...
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov ...
90
95
100
105
110
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 6/2014
PENDING
Home Sales
50.6 51.2
50 50.6
47.8
27.7
19.3
26.2
43.9
46.1
44.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
July 2013 August
2013
Septembet
2013
October
2013
No...
“It’s not that Millennials and
other potential homebuyers
aren’t qualified in terms of
their credit scores or in how
much ...
The DOWN PAYMENT
Biggest Misconception about Mortgages
39%
38%
42%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
All Respondents 25-29 Year ...
The DOWN PAYMENT
According to Freddie Mac:
•A person “can get a conforming, conventional mortgage
with a down payment of a...
Letting more consumers know how down
payments are determined could bring
more qualified borrowers off the sidelines.
Depen...
3.25
3.5
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
Freddie Mac
Actual Rates
January 2013 – July 2014
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
Freddie Mac 6...
5.2
4.7
5.1
5.4
Freddie Mac Fannie Mae
MBA NAR
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
Actual Rates
January 2013 – June 2014
Projecte...
Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst Projected Rate
2015 3Q
Fannie Mae 4.6%
Freddie Mac 4.8%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.1%
Nati...
1/2013 6/2014
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5
5.2
2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2015 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q
Freddie Mac
Projected Rates
June 2014 ...
Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $250,000 4.17% $1,218.17
July 2015 $260,000 4.8% $1,364.13
*Average Commitment Ra...
Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $100,000 4.17% $487.27
July 2015 $104,000 4.8% $545.65
*Average Commitment Rate p...
Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $500,000 4.17% $2,436.34
July 2015 $520,000 4.8% $2,728.26
*Average Commitment Ra...
Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $1,000,000 4.17% $4,872.68
July 2015 $1,040,000 4.8% $5,456.52
*Average Commitmen...
Decade Average Rate Payment
1970s 8.86% $1,589
1980s 12.7% $2,166
1990s 8.12% $1,484
2000s 6.29% $1,237
July 2014 4.17% $9...
PRICES
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 6/2014
Year-Over-Year
PRICE
CHANGES
Case
Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 6/2014
The Impact of Monthly Housing
Inventory on Home Prices
LESS THAN
6 MONTHS
BETWEEN
6-7 MONTHS
GREATER THAN
7 MONTHS
SELLERS...
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
Months In...
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SAL...
4.9
5.0
5.2
5.7
5.6
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 6/2014
-24%
-20.8%
-16.8%
-14%
-13%
-7.6%
-5%
-6.2%
1.8% 0.9%
5%
1.6%
7.3%
5.3%
3.2%
6.5% 6%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Ja...
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
New...
Realtor Magazine 6/2014
67%
33%
Purchasers
brought to builder
by real estate
agents
Purchasers
brought by other
means
NEW ...
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
4,6,7,27,28,
29,30
Existing Home Sales, Percentage of Distressed
Property Sales, Pending ...
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
32 New Home Sales 2013 and 2014 http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/06/comments-on-hou...
Webinar
LIVE WEBINAR
Thursday, July 24th
- 2PM EST
15 ‘MAJOR’ REASONS TO OWN A HOME
as per a survey by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University
* the reaso...
EXTRA SLIDES
Alternate Versions of select “Reasons to Own” Graphics
It's much easier to spend a
lot of time making your
microphone louder than it is
working on making your
message more compe...
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
Naea 07-14
of 62

Naea 07-14

na
Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: Real Estate      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Naea 07-14

  • 1. KCM Divided into Three Sections
  • 2. 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 Jan 2012 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2013 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May EXISTING Home Sales NAR 6/2014
  • 3. $0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % Sales +/- -12% -5.1% 0.2% 0.3% 2.4% 5% -12% -5.1% .2% .3% 2.4% 5% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% % Change in Sales From Last Year by Price Range NAR 6/13/2014
  • 4. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 11% 18% NAR 6/2014
  • 5. 90 95 100 105 110 100 = Historically Healthy Level NAR 6/2014 PENDING Home Sales
  • 6. 50.6 51.2 50 50.6 47.8 27.7 19.3 26.2 43.9 46.1 44.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 July 2013 August 2013 Septembet 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales) realtor.org
  • 7. “It’s not that Millennials and other potential homebuyers aren’t qualified in terms of their credit scores or in how much they have saved for their down payment. It’s that they think they’re not qualified or they think that they don’t have a big enough down payment.” Housing Wire Commenting on a Study by Nomura
  • 8. The DOWN PAYMENT Biggest Misconception about Mortgages 39% 38% 42% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% All Respondents 25-29 Year Olds 30-34 Year Olds Percentage of respondents to Zelman & Assoc survey who believe that you need a minimum of a 15% down payment to purchase a home. Freddie Mac 6/2014
  • 9. The DOWN PAYMENT According to Freddie Mac: •A person “can get a conforming, conventional mortgage with a down payment of as little as 5 percent (sometimes with as little as 3 percent coming out of their own pockets)”. •Freddie Mac's purchase of mortgages with down payments under 10 percent more than quadrupled between 2009 and 2013. •More than one in five borrowers who took out conforming, conventional mortgages in 2014 put down 10 percent or less. Freddie Mac 6/2014
  • 10. Letting more consumers know how down payments are determined could bring more qualified borrowers off the sidelines. Depending on their credit history and other factors, many borrowers can expect to make a down payment of about 5 or 10 percent. Christina Boyle Freddie Mac VP and Head of Single-Family Sales & Relationship Management
  • 11. 3.25 3.5 3.75 4 4.25 4.5 4.75 Freddie Mac Actual Rates January 2013 – July 2014 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Freddie Mac 6/2014
  • 12. 5.2 4.7 5.1 5.4 Freddie Mac Fannie Mae MBA NAR 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Actual Rates January 2013 – June 2014 Projected Rates June 2014 – 2015 4Q 1/2013 6/2014 10/2015
  • 13. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 2015 3Q Fannie Mae 4.6% Freddie Mac 4.8% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.1% National Assoc of Realtors 5.3% 6/2014
  • 14. 1/2013 6/2014 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2015 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q Freddie Mac Projected Rates June 2014 – 2015 4Q Freddie Mac 6/2014 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Freddie Mac Rates January 2013 – June 2014
  • 15. Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I** Today $250,000 4.17% $1,218.17 July 2015 $260,000 4.8% $1,364.13 *Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment $145.42Difference in Monthly Payment Monthly Annually Over 30 Years $145.42 $1,745.04 $52,351
  • 16. Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I** Today $100,000 4.17% $487.27 July 2015 $104,000 4.8% $545.65 *Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment $58.38Difference in Monthly Payment Monthly Annually Over 30 Years $58.38 $700.56 $21,017
  • 17. Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I** Today $500,000 4.17% $2,436.34 July 2015 $520,000 4.8% $2,728.26 *Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment $291.92Difference in Monthly Payment Monthly Annually Over 30 Years $291.92 $3,503.04 $105,091
  • 18. Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I** Today $1,000,000 4.17% $4,872.68 July 2015 $1,040,000 4.8% $5,456.52 *Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment $583.84Difference in Monthly Payment Monthly Annually Over 30 Years $583.84 $7,006.08 $210,182
  • 19. Decade Average Rate Payment 1970s 8.86% $1,589 1980s 12.7% $2,166 1990s 8.12% $1,484 2000s 6.29% $1,237 July 2014 4.17% $975 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rates and the approximate payment for a $200,000 mortgage. Payments are principal & interest only, based on a $200,000 fully amortizing mortgage. All terms are assumed to be 30 years. Freddie Mac 7/2014 Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade
  • 20. PRICES
  • 21. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 6/2014
  • 22. Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES Case Shiller S&P Case Shiller 6/2014
  • 23. The Impact of Monthly Housing Inventory on Home Prices LESS THAN 6 MONTHS BETWEEN 6-7 MONTHS GREATER THAN 7 MONTHS SELLERS MARKET Homes prices will appreciate NEUTRAL MARKET Homes prices will only appreciate with inflation BUYERS MARKET Homes prices will depreciate
  • 24. 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 6/2014
  • 25. 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 6/2014
  • 26. 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.7 5.6 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 6/2014
  • 27. -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May % -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% NAR 6/2014 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
  • 28. 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 New Home Sales 2004-2014 Census Bureau 6/2014
  • 29. Realtor Magazine 6/2014 67% 33% Purchasers brought to builder by real estate agents Purchasers brought by other means NEW HOME Sales
  • 30. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 4,6,7,27,28, 29,30 Existing Home Sales, Percentage of Distressed Property Sales, Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory of Homes for Sale, Year-over-Year Inventory Levels http://www.realtor.org/ 5 % Change in Sales from Last Year http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/06/13/existing-home-sales-by-price-tier/#sf3291580 8 Foot Traffic https://magic.piktochart.com/output/2155255-foot-traffic-may-2014?sf3290807=1 9 Housing Wire Comments http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/30441-nomura-fear-is-keeping-demand-pent-up 10,11 The Down Payment, Christina Boyle Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/news/blog/christina_boyle/20140616_mortgage_down_payments.html 13 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 14, 15 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages, Mortgage Rate Predictions http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/June_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/88467_.pdf http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_062414.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/phs-06-30/forecast-07-2014-us-econom 16 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/June_2014_public_outlook.pdf 17 Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140324_dirt_cheap_to_cheap.html 24,25 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/CSHomePrice_Release_April2014- results.pdf 31 New Home Sales 2004-2014 http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/06/24/may-new-home-sales/11304161/ KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 31. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 32 New Home Sales 2013 and 2014 http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/06/comments-on-housing-and-new-home-sales.html 33 New Home Sales http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2014/06/18/builders-turn-agents-in-finding-qualified- buyers#sf3351519 39-61 Reasons to Own http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/believing-homeownership-behavioral-drivers- housing-tenure-decisions 62 Seth Godin Quote http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2014/06/more-people-saying-less-and-a-few-people- saying-more.html KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 32. Webinar LIVE WEBINAR Thursday, July 24th - 2PM EST
  • 33. 15 ‘MAJOR’ REASONS TO OWN A HOME as per a survey by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University * the reasons are in no particular order
  • 34. EXTRA SLIDES Alternate Versions of select “Reasons to Own” Graphics
  • 35. It's much easier to spend a lot of time making your microphone louder than it is working on making your message more compelling. Seth Godin

Related Documents