KCM Divided into
Three Sections
NAR 8/2013
RealEstateRecovery
Sales
Started Sustained Recovery
September 2011
Prices
Started Sustained Recovery
June 2012
...
“The forces pulling the home
ownership rate lower are past
their apex…House prices are
rising, but remain affordable at
21...
KCM Blog 8/2013
Boomerang Buyers
“HUD recently announced that people who lost their home
through a foreclosure, short sale...
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University 8/2013
“Even after the dramatic loss of equity and
the high foreclosur...
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University 8/2013
“The research on home-buying
expectations supports the conclusi...
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year)
FHFA 2013 2Q HPI
2012 3Q 2012 4Q
2013 1Q 2013 2Q
FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year)
FHFA 2013 2Q HPI
35% Loss in Price, then 35% Gain
Still 12% off Peak
Months Market Pricing
1 – 5 Sellers Appreciation
5 – 6 Even The Norm
6 + Buyers Depreciation
Months Supply & Impact on Pri...
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Months Inventory
of Homes for Sale
NAR 8/2013
5-6 Months = Normal Mark...
January February March April May June July
% -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5%
-24%
-20.8%
-16.8%
-14%
-13%
-7.6%
-5%...
0.6%
1.1%
2.0%
3.6%
4.3%
5.5%
6.8%
8.1%
9.3%
10.2%
12.1% 12.2% 12.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jun Jul Au...
Zillow 8/2013
3.2
million homeowners have been
freed from negative equity in
the last twelve months.
million additional ar...
Cost vs.Cost vs.
PricePrice
Mortgage Rate Projections
Analyst Projected Rate
3Q 2014
Fannie Mae 5.0%
National Assoc. of
Realtors 5.1%
Freddie Mac 5.1%...
Home Prices Next Year
In the recent Home Price Expectation Survey,
over 100 leading housing analysts called for an
approxi...
Thinking about moving up to
the home of your dreams?
Comparison – Next Year Current Home Move-Up Home
Current Price $240,000 $360,000
Future Price (+5%) $252,000 $378,000
Futu...
Price Rate P&I
Today $360,000 4.5% $1,824.07
End of
Year $378,000 5%
$2,029.19
Monthly Savings $205.12
The Move-Up Seller
35.4
17.1
-8.9
59.5
-30
0
30
60
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – August 2013
MSN Money, Case Shiller
Return on In...
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Pending Home Sales
NAR 8...
80
90
100
110
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2012 2011
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending ...
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Ma...
NAR 8/2013
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Percentage ...
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 8/2013
Reasons to Hire a
Real Estate Professional5
They help with all disclosures and paperwork necessary in
today’s heavily regu...
NAR 8/2013
Found sixty eight percent of those
surveyed responded that now is a
good time to buy a home
Found over 50% of r...
8.1%
9.3%
10.2%
12.1% 12.2% 12.1%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Year-over-Year
Chang...
30 Year Fixed Rate
Mortgage History
January 2012 - September 2013
Federal Reserve 9/2013
Price
Money
Down
Mortgage
Interest
Rate
Payment
(P&I)
Last Year* $187,800 $37,560 $150,240 3.5% $674.64
This Year* $213,50...
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
4 Real Estate Recovery http://www.realtor.org
5 A Swing Back To...
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
27, 28,
29, 30
Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory
of Homes for Sale, Percentage of
Dist...
“Home buyers are more informed than ever with
their Internet searches and ongoing research;
however, there’s a critical ne...
To interpret the indices, a
value of 100 means that a
family with the median income
has exactly enough income to
qualify f...
“The rise in the renter population
with no net increase in the owner
population at a time of housing
recovery automaticall...
Naea 09-13
Naea 09-13
Naea 09-13
Naea 09-13
Naea 09-13
Naea 09-13
Naea 09-13
of 44

Naea 09-13

Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: Business      Real Estate      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Naea 09-13

  • 1. KCM Divided into Three Sections
  • 2. NAR 8/2013 RealEstateRecovery Sales Started Sustained Recovery September 2011 Prices Started Sustained Recovery June 2012 Inventory Started Sustained Recovery January 2013
  • 3. “The forces pulling the home ownership rate lower are past their apex…House prices are rising, but remain affordable at 21% below peak, even as rents rise. Some who lost homes early in the crisis can now qualify again for mortgage loans. As housing recovers and consumers again see prices rising steadily, perceptions will swing back to favor home ownership.” Moody’s Analyitics 8/2013 Celia Chen Senior Director - Moody's Analytics A Swing Back Toward Ownership
  • 4. KCM Blog 8/2013 Boomerang Buyers “HUD recently announced that people who lost their home through a foreclosure, short sale or bankruptcy, may be eligible to finance a home again in as little as 12 months. This is a reduction from the previously required minimum of 36 months from the date of the “most recent event.” Released August 15, HUD provided guidelines under “Back to Work: Extenuating Circumstances” meant to ease the path for home ownership for many.”
  • 5. Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University 8/2013 “Even after the dramatic loss of equity and the high foreclosure rates, the early evidence suggests that people seem to believe that, over the long run, owning is still preferable to renting... Reexamining the Social Benefits of Homeownership after the Housing Crisis The long term cultural preference for owning seems to have weathered the recent housing crisis.”
  • 6. Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University 8/2013 “The research on home-buying expectations supports the conclusion that very large percentages of Americans still expect to buy a home at some time in the future… Moreover, the finding that younger renters and owners are more likely than their older counterparts to expect to own bodes well for the future of the housing market.” Reexamining the Social Benefits of Homeownership after the Housing Crisis
  • 7. FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2013 2Q HPI
  • 8. 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 2Q
  • 9. FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2013 2Q HPI
  • 10. 35% Loss in Price, then 35% Gain Still 12% off Peak
  • 11. Months Market Pricing 1 – 5 Sellers Appreciation 5 – 6 Even The Norm 6 + Buyers Depreciation Months Supply & Impact on Price
  • 12. 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Months Inventory of Homes for Sale NAR 8/2013 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
  • 13. January February March April May June July % -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% NAR 8/2013 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
  • 14. 0.6% 1.1% 2.0% 3.6% 4.3% 5.5% 6.8% 8.1% 9.3% 10.2% 12.1% 12.2% 12.1% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun S&P Case Shiller 8/2013 Year-over-Year Change in Prices
  • 15. Zillow 8/2013 3.2 million homeowners have been freed from negative equity in the last twelve months. million additional are expected to be freed in the next twelve months.1.9
  • 16. Cost vs.Cost vs. PricePrice
  • 17. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 3Q 2014 Fannie Mae 5.0% National Assoc. of Realtors 5.1% Freddie Mac 5.1% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 4.9% 8/2013
  • 18. Home Prices Next Year In the recent Home Price Expectation Survey, over 100 leading housing analysts called for an approximate 5% increase in home values over the next twelve months. Home Price Expectation Survey 8/2013
  • 19. Thinking about moving up to the home of your dreams?
  • 20. Comparison – Next Year Current Home Move-Up Home Current Price $240,000 $360,000 Future Price (+5%) $252,000 $378,000 Future Gain $12,000 $18,000 Total Gain $6,000 The Move-Up Seller
  • 21. Price Rate P&I Today $360,000 4.5% $1,824.07 End of Year $378,000 5% $2,029.19 Monthly Savings $205.12 The Move-Up Seller
  • 22. 35.4 17.1 -8.9 59.5 -30 0 30 60 Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate January 2000 – August 2013 MSN Money, Case Shiller Return on Investment
  • 23. 90 95 100 105 110 115 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Pending Home Sales NAR 8/2013 100 = Historically Healthy Level
  • 24. 80 90 100 110 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2012 2011 100 = Historically Healthy Level Pending Home Sales NAR 8/2013
  • 25. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul NAR 8/2013 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
  • 26. NAR 8/2013 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 15%
  • 27. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 8/2013
  • 28. Reasons to Hire a Real Estate Professional5 They help with all disclosures and paperwork necessary in today’s heavily regulated environment. They are well educated in and experienced with the entire sales process. They act as a ‘buffer’ in negotiations with all parties throughout the entire transaction. They help understand today’s real estate values when setting the price on a listing or on an offer to purchase. They simply and effectively explain today’s real estate headlines and decipher what they mean to you.
  • 29. NAR 8/2013 Found sixty eight percent of those surveyed responded that now is a good time to buy a home Found over 50% of renters say that eventually owning a home is one of their highest personal priorities 68% 51% NAR’s 2013 HOUSING PULSE Survey Found eight in 10 Americans believe buying a home is a good financial decision
  • 30. 8.1% 9.3% 10.2% 12.1% 12.2% 12.1% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Year-over-Year Change in Prices S&P Case Shiller 8/2013
  • 31. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History January 2012 - September 2013 Federal Reserve 9/2013
  • 32. Price Money Down Mortgage Interest Rate Payment (P&I) Last Year* $187,800 $37,560 $150,240 3.5% $674.64 This Year* $213,500 $42,700 $170,800 4.5% $865.42 Next Year** $224,175 $44,835 $179,340 5% $962.74 *For the first two examples, we used the NAR’s Existing Home Sales Report to establish median price and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey to establish mortgage rate. We also assumed a 20% down payment in all examples. **To establish next year’s pricing, we depended on the over 100 housing experts surveyed for the Home Price Expectation Survey who called for an approximate appreciation rate of 5% over the next twelve months. For the interest rate, we took the average of the projections from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The Cost of Waiting
  • 33. Resources KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM Slide Slide Title Link 4 Real Estate Recovery http://www.realtor.org 5 A Swing Back Toward Ownership PAID: http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?cid=241831 6 Boomerang Buyers http://www.kcmblog.com/2013/08/22/boomerang-homebuyers-get-a-shorter-ride-home/ http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/administration/hudclips/letters/mortgagee 7, 8 Social Benefits of Homeownership http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/hbtl-04.pdf 9, 10, 11 FHFA Regional Home Prices, FHFA State Prices http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25483/2013Q2HPI82213Final.pdf 14 Months Inventory of Home Sales http://www.realtor.org 17 Negative Equity Graphic http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=373 20 Mortgage Rate Projections http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2 http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf 21 Home Prices Next Year https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php 26 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  • 34. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 27, 28, 29, 30 Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory of Homes for Sale, Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org 31 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomepric 34 Housing Pulse Survey http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2013/07/renters-thinking-more-about-owning-a-home-say-hom 36 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 34 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice- assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf 41 Stephen Phillips Quote http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130812005934/en/Prudential-Real-Estate-Q2- Outlook-Survey-Millennials 42 Home Affordability Index http://www.realtor.org/topics/housing-affordability-index/data http://www.realtor.org/topics/housing-affordability-index/methodology 43 Family Wealth http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/07/30/the-latest-homeownership-rate/ KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 35. “Home buyers are more informed than ever with their Internet searches and ongoing research; however, there’s a critical need to transform that information into analysis and advice that helps consumers make the best home- buying and selling decisions.” Stephen Phillips Chief Operating Officer for HSF Affiliates LLC
  • 36. To interpret the indices, a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment. Home Affordability Index 127.4 172.2 206.5 155.2 NAR 8/2013
  • 37. “The rise in the renter population with no net increase in the owner population at a time of housing recovery automatically means greater unequal distribution of wealth. Housing wealth is rising because of price increases, but the wealth is going to the fewer and fewer households who happen to be homeowners and those who own more than one home.” Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors NAR 8/2013 Family Wealth

Related Documents