KCM Divided into
Three Sections
Existing Home Sales
S&P Case Shiller 10/2013
Pending Home Sales
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 10/2013
“The emerging slowdown in
home purchases appears to
be largely seasonal.”
Thomas Popik
Research Director for the
HousingP...
Months Supply & Impact on Price
Months
Market
Pricing
1–5
Sellers
Appreciation
5–6
Even
The Norm
6+
Buyers
Depr...
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 10/2013
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 10/2013
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
S&P Case Shiller 10/2013
Month-Over-Month
Price Changes
Realtor.com’s
0.0%
Median List Price
Zillow’s
Sales Price
-0.2%
“Asking home prices give us the first look at where
home sale prices are headed, and they point to a
Affordability is stil...
“The rapid price gains of the last year cannot
be sustained and we expect the last 50 to
Affordability is still good compa...
“If home values continued to rise as they have,
relatively unchecked, we would almost certainly
be headed into another bub...
"I define a bubble as a time when people have
extravagant expectations, and the expectations
are driving home price increa...
Recent Rate Movement
2013
30 Year Fixed
Rate
Freddie Mac 10/2013
ta·per
ˈtāpər/
Verb – to diminish
or reduce
Rate Movement
30 Year Fixed
Rate
Fed announces not to
taper bond purchases
t
tes emen
a
e r unc
ag
rtg anno
o
n m Fed
i
...
“The MBA believes rates will keep
pushing upward, going…
well above 5%.”
HousingWire 10/2013
Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst
Projected Rate
4Q 2014
Fannie Mae
5.0%
5.4%
5.1%
5.0%
National Assoc of Realtors
Fre...
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
January 2000 – November 2013
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Home Price
Expectation
Survey
A nationwide panel
of over one hundred
economists, real
estate experts and
investment & mark...
Average Annual Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
Home Price Expectation Survey
Projected Percentage Increase
Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
Cumulative Appreciation by 2018
Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
30 Year Fixed Rate
Mortgage History
January 2012 – November 2013
Federal Reserve 11/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 10/2013
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 10/2013
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
14%
NAR 10/2013
Typical Sold Price*
FSBO vs. Agent
$215K
$175K
By FSBO
*The ‘typical’ price is actually the average price in the
survey....
89
%
Where Do Buyers
Find a Home?
90
%
of all buyers search online
during home buying process
of all buyers purchase...
FSBOs as a Percentage
of all Home Sales
The percentage of homes selling as a FSBO has
decreased from 19% to 9% in the las...
FSBOs Must Be Ready to Negotiate
Here is a list of some of the people with
whom you must be prepared to negotiate:
• The b...
7.9%
5.1%
3.6%
Pre-BUBBLE
Average Annual
APPRECIATION
BUBBLE
RECOVERY
TO DATE
4.2%
PROJECTED
NOW to 2018
BUST
-5...
PROJECTED
Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018
40.1%
28%
23.7%
16.8%
Pre-Bubble
Trend
Bulls
All
Projections
Bears
Home Price E...
Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst
Projected Rate
4Q 2014
Fannie Mae
5.0%
5.4%
5.1%
5.0%
National Assoc of Realtors
Fre...
Resources
Slide
Slide Title
Link
4
Existing Home Sales
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shil...
Resources
Slide
Slide Title
Link
22
Return on Investment
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-sh...
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Naea 11-13

Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: Business      Economy & Finance      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Naea 11-13

  • 1. KCM Divided into Three Sections
  • 2. Existing Home Sales S&P Case Shiller 10/2013
  • 3. Pending Home Sales 100 = Historically Healthy Level NAR 10/2013
  • 4. “The emerging slowdown in home purchases appears to be largely seasonal.” Thomas Popik Research Director for the HousingPulse survey
  • 5. Months Supply & Impact on Price Months Market Pricing 1–5 Sellers Appreciation 5–6 Even The Norm 6+ Buyers Depreciation
  • 6. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 10/2013
  • 7. Year-over-Year Inventory Levels NAR 10/2013
  • 8. Year-over-Year Change in Prices S&P Case Shiller 10/2013
  • 9. Month-Over-Month Price Changes Realtor.com’s 0.0% Median List Price Zillow’s Sales Price -0.2%
  • 10. “Asking home prices give us the first look at where home sale prices are headed, and they point to a Affordability is still rising rapidly in the first half of 2013, slowdown. Aftergood compared to any time over the last 50 years. asking prices in two thirds of the largest metros are cooling. In fact, asking prices are falling – not just rising more slowly – in 11 of the 100 largest metros, the most markets to see prices slip in six months.” Jed Kolko Trulia’s Chief Economist
  • 11. “The rapid price gains of the last year cannot be sustained and we expect the last 50 to Affordability is still good compared to any time over thepaceyears. decline substantially…A slower pace is a positive for housing demand and will help to keep affordability from further eroding.” Moody’s Analytics
  • 12. “If home values continued to rise as they have, relatively unchecked, we would almost certainly be headed into another bubble cycle, and nobody wants that…This moderation 50 years. Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last should help consumers feel more at ease in their decisions to buy and sell, and will help keep the market balanced.” Stan Humphries Chief Economist for Zillow
  • 13. "I define a bubble as a time when people have extravagant expectations, and the expectations are driving home price increases. We don't Affordability is mindset of earlier this century… have the still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years." Robert Shiller Nobel Prize Winning Economist
  • 14. Recent Rate Movement 2013 30 Year Fixed Rate Freddie Mac 10/2013
  • 15. ta·per ˈtāpər/ Verb – to diminish or reduce
  • 16. Rate Movement 30 Year Fixed Rate Fed announces not to taper bond purchases t tes emen a e r unc ag rtg anno o n m Fed i se p to ea ncr ding u I l bui Decrease in mortgage rates since Fed announcement Freddie Mac 10/2013
  • 17. “The MBA believes rates will keep pushing upward, going… well above 5%.” HousingWire 10/2013
  • 18. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 4Q 2014 Fannie Mae 5.0% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% National Assoc of Realtors Freddie Mac Mortgage Bankers Assoc
  • 19. RETURN ON INVESTMENT January 2000 – November 2013 MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
  • 20. Home Price Expectation Survey A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.
  • 21. Average Annual Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
  • 22. Home Price Expectation Survey Projected Percentage Increase Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
  • 23. Cumulative Appreciation by 2018 Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
  • 24. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History January 2012 – November 2013 Federal Reserve 11/2013
  • 25. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 10/2013
  • 26. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 10/2013
  • 27. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 14% NAR 10/2013
  • 28. Typical Sold Price* FSBO vs. Agent $215K $175K By FSBO *The ‘typical’ price is actually the average price in the survey. However, studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points. By AGENT
  • 29. 89 % Where Do Buyers Find a Home? 90 % of all buyers search online during home buying process of all buyers purchased a home through an agent % 28 of all buyers look to print newspaper ads
  • 30. FSBOs as a Percentage of all Home Sales The percentage of homes selling as a FSBO has decreased from 19% to 9% in the last 20 years
  • 31. FSBOs Must Be Ready to Negotiate Here is a list of some of the people with whom you must be prepared to negotiate: • The buyer • The buyer’s agent • The buyer’s attorney • The home inspection company • The termite company • The buyer’s lender • The appraiser • The title company • The town or municipality • The buyer’s buyer • Your bank (in the case of a short sale)
  • 32. 7.9% 5.1% 3.6% Pre-BUBBLE Average Annual APPRECIATION BUBBLE RECOVERY TO DATE 4.2% PROJECTED NOW to 2018 BUST -5.9% Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
  • 33. PROJECTED Percentage Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
  • 34. Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018 40.1% 28% 23.7% 16.8% Pre-Bubble Trend Bulls All Projections Bears Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q
  • 35. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 4Q 2014 Fannie Mae 5.0% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% National Assoc of Realtors Freddie Mac Mortgage Bankers Assoc
  • 36. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 4 Existing Home Sales http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 5 Pending Home Sales http://www.realtor.org/ 6 Thomas Popik Quote 8, 9 Months Inventory of Homes for Sale, Year-over-Year Inventory Levels http://www.realtor.org/ 10 Year-over-Year Change in Prices http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 11 Month-Over-Month Price Changes http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=390 12 Jed Kolko Quote http://info.trulia.com/trulia-price-and-rent-monitors-sept-2013 13, 14 Moody’s Analytics Quote, Stan Humphries Quote http://www.dsnews.com/articles/moodys-predicts-strong-market-despite-slowdown-2013-09-27 15 Robert Shiller Quote http://www.cnbc.com/id/101152271 16, 18 Recent Rate Movement, Rate Movement http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 19 Mortgage Bankers Association Quote http://www.housingwire.com/articles/27697-mba-economists-predict-mortgage-market-taper Mortgage Rate Projections http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2013 20, 39 http://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-performs-well-despite-rising-interest-rates-2013-10-24 http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 37. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 22 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 23, 24, 25, 26 Home Price Expectation Survey, Average Annual Appreciation, Cumulative Appreciation by 2017 https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php 27 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 28 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 29, 30 Months Inventory of Homes for Sale, Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org/ 32 Typical Sold Price http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/01/how-seller-sold-home-1991-2012/ 33 Where Do Buyers Find a Home? http://www.realtor.org/ 34 FSBOs as a Percentage of Home Sales http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/01/how-seller-sold-home-1991-2012/ 36-38 Average Annual Appreciation, Projected Percentage Appreciation, Cumulative House Appreciation by 2017 https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-releas KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

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