Politics of numbers in the framework of REDD+
Strengthening the independent monitoring of land emissions
Uncertainty in tr...
Rational
science
and
planning
Numbers
as politics
Two perspectives on numbers
(Porter, 1995)
• generates knowledge & objec...
Areas of agreement and disagreement, country X
Rational
science
and
planning
Numbers
as politics
Two perspectives on numbers
(Porter, 1995)
• generates knowledge & objec...
Strengthening the independent monitoring
of GHG emissions from land activities
for publishing, comparing and reconciling e...
Assessment Framework
Strengths, weakness, opportunities,
risks and gaps (SWORG) analysis
(by dataset and stakeholder)
Data...
User assessment shows different needs
Datasets on forest biomass change and emission factors
• 89% of users need EF data a...
Case studies
study purpose
Global contribution of AFOLU GHG
emissions (2000-2005): patterns,
uncertainties and drivers
fea...
Shedding light on deforestation in country X
• Compare global and national datasets of forest area loss
• Validate the dat...
Comparing annual fluctuations in
deforestation, from two datasets, country X
National data forest = old-growth carbon- and...
What is „independent monitoring“?
… provides information that is
• independent from national/sectoral, commercial or other...
Questions for debate
 With countries setting their own performance standards (i.e. FRELs) and proposing INDCs, what would...
Find us on
www.cifor.org/GCS
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Politics of numbers in the framework of redd+

Presentation at the Global Landscapes Forum 2015, in Paris, France alongside COP21. For more information go to: www.landscapes.org.
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Environment      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Politics of numbers in the framework of redd+

  • 1. Politics of numbers in the framework of REDD+ Strengthening the independent monitoring of land emissions Uncertainty in tropical landscapes: Emerging data and models as a bridge between the past and visions for tomorrow GLF session 5/12/2015 Christopher Martius, Lou Verchot, Hannes Boettcher*, Martin Herold, Arild Angelsen**, David Gaveau, and Maria Brockhaus * Oeko-Institut Berlin; ** NMBU, Ås, Norway
  • 2. Rational science and planning Numbers as politics Two perspectives on numbers (Porter, 1995) • generates knowledge & objective information about real world • basis for decisions, implementation & evaluation • value-based & subjective choices in selection of numbers:biases, presentation, interpretation, uses • numbers as part of power game Arild Angelsen, Norwegian University of Life Sciences
  • 3. Areas of agreement and disagreement, country X
  • 4. Rational science and planning Numbers as politics Two perspectives on numbers (Porter, 1995) • generates knowledge & objective information about real world • basis for decisions, implementation & evaluation • value-based & subjective choices in selection of numbers:biases, presentation, interpretation, uses • numbers as part of power game Arild Angelsen, Norwegian University of Life Sciences we need a third perspective: there is data variation and uncertainty
  • 5. Strengthening the independent monitoring of GHG emissions from land activities for publishing, comparing and reconciling estimates Aims develop a proof of concept for publicly available, comprehensive, global, spatial information systems on land cover, land emissions, land use and associated trends tailored to multiple uses relevant to varying users. An opportunity to • analyze global monitoring systems currently available • scrutinize them in light of user needs • derive recommendations for more efficient and effective monitoring systems • particularly for users with limited capacities of data handling and interpretation An EC-funded cooperation of
  • 6. Assessment Framework Strengths, weakness, opportunities, risks and gaps (SWORG) analysis (by dataset and stakeholder) Dataset categories Forest area and area change Forest biomass change and emission factors AFOLU data and emissions ● 23 datasets and 31 web portals Indicators Dataset characteristics Methodologies Uncertainties Verification Viability Sustainability Accessibility Legitimacy Stakeholders Government Local stakeholders (incl. indigenous people) NGO's Private sector Research institutes & universities Donors Media Analysis Case studies Case study selection Survey Recommendations
  • 7. User assessment shows different needs Datasets on forest biomass change and emission factors • 89% of users need EF data at tier 2/tier 3 level • Differences between stakeholder groups • E.g. demand for tier 3 mostly from researchers • More governments and companies happy with tier 1 22% 50% 28% 7% 61% 32% 21% 42% 38% Governmental Research NGO’s Only single answer possible N = 24 N = 44 Companies N = 18 10% 31% 59% N = 39
  • 8. Case studies study purpose Global contribution of AFOLU GHG emissions (2000-2005): patterns, uncertainties and drivers feasibility to develop global spatially explicit AFOLU GHG emission maps; assessing uncertainties for emission hotspots Forest change, deforestation and degradation datasets at country level develop approaches to compare and validate forest loss datasets, and assess different types of forest degradation in humid forests Global forest biomass uncertainties and their integration with national and regional estimation and reporting independent assessment of global forest biomass uncertainties to allow users to understand their feasibility and risks when used for their purposes improving emission factors for forest and agriculture by using biophysical soil models improving accessibility and increasing transparency of Tier 3 methods to estimate GHG emissions and removals Independent monitoring for state-of- the-art projections of land use related emissions (addressing drivers) proof-of-concept how independent monitoring information can support users in projecting and reconciling GHG emissions from land use activities
  • 9. Shedding light on deforestation in country X • Compare global and national datasets of forest area loss • Validate the datasets using a common reference • Consolidate estimates of deforestation • Promote dialogue among data producers ● to identify reasons of disagreement
  • 10. Comparing annual fluctuations in deforestation, from two datasets, country X National data forest = old-growth carbon- and species-rich natural forest with high tree cover Deforestation = an area where forest tree cover is becoming less than 30% over time
  • 11. What is „independent monitoring“? … provides information that is • independent from national/sectoral, commercial or other interests • additional to mandated national monitoring • helping to fill country data and capacity gaps • underpinning science with data • providing comparability • accurate, reliable and customizable • increasing transparency, building confidence and broadening participation for multiple stakeholders • a potential authoritative reference for all stakeholders • and also addressing different user needs: regional, time frame, specific questions (peatlands, degradation)
  • 12. Questions for debate  With countries setting their own performance standards (i.e. FRELs) and proposing INDCs, what would be globally fair standards for measuring progress towards climate goals?  How can we combine multi-stakeholder engagement in MRV with independent and third party control?  What will be the role of science in this?
  • 13. Find us on www.cifor.org/GCS

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