12 January, 2015
International Conference on Climate Change: Innovation and Resilience for Sustainable Livelihood
12-14 Ja...
Outline
 Motivation/Background
 Objectives
 Study area
 Materials and methods
 Results and discussion
 Conclusion
MOTIVATION -1
• Dendrochronology
Greek words,
dendron (= tree)
chronos (= time)
logos (= the study of)
 Tree is a recorde...
MOTIVATION-2
Treelines = sensitive bio-monitors of CC
4
Photo: Mai-He Li 2010
Photo: Shiba Raj Ghimire 2011
OBJECTIVES
 To assess treeline dynamics in the Nepal
Himalaya with Environmental (climate)
change
 To reconstruct past c...
Study Area and Sites
Local climate trend
Annual temperature change in Chame station(°C)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1947 1952 1957 1962...
A. Ecological mapping
8
Materials and Methods
Climate reconstruction and Teleconnection analysis
Dpl-R; KNMI Climate Explorer
Regeneration and growth - climate relation...
Data analysis…
10
(m/yr)
positionsobetween twdifferenceTime
positionOld-positionRecent
shiftofRate 
Camarero and Gutiérre...
Dendrochronological study in
Nepal = a glimpse
11
• More than 25 districts
• Over 20 species
.
.
.
Updated on Gaire et al ...
Position of treeline or species limit (m asl)
KCA MBNP SNP LNP MCA RNP ANCA
Abies
Limit
4136 3992-
4060
4062-
4141
3950 39...
Treeline dynamics at Sagarmatha NP
0
5
10
15
20
25
1797 1827 1857 1887 1917 1947 1977 2007
Frequency(%)
Age class (year)
A. spectabilis
Treeline dynamics at ...
Spatio-
temporal
variation in
establishment
Treeline dynamics in Manaslu CA
NPGaire,M
Koirala,DRBhuju,
HPBorgaonkar,
Clima...
Tree species limit shift- MCA
 Average shift of A. spectabilis is 26.1 m per decade in past 160 yrs
Treeline Dynamics at Rara NP
Site chronologies of Abies spectabilis
18
Humla Manaslu CA Langtang NP Sagarmatha NP
Humla 1
Manaslu CA 0.128637 1
Langtan...
(a)
( c)
(b)
(d)
Climatic- tree growth & regeneration
Fig.6. Climate–growth & regeneration relationship; Abies ring width ...
Mean MJJA Tempr Reconstruction
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
1867 1887 1907 1927 1947 1967 1987 2007
Tem...
Fig. 3 Tree-ring chronology of P. smithiana extending from AD 1591 to 2012 along with
sample depth and EPS threshold cut o...
Fig. 7 The reconstructed
March–May temperature
data filtered with a
smoothing spline with a
50 % frequency cut off of
10 y...
Fig: Correlation between
observed and estimated
temperature data and Sea
Surface Temperature (SST)
index for tropical Paci...
Conclusions
• Dynamic treeline with differential regeneration and shifting of
species;Species-specific response to climate...
Acknowledgements
 Conference Organizing Team
 Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST)
 CDES-TU
 DHM, DNPWC, NTN...
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Narayan prasad gaire

Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Narayan prasad gaire

  • 1. 12 January, 2015 International Conference on Climate Change: Innovation and Resilience for Sustainable Livelihood 12-14 January 2015, Kathmandu, Nepal
  • 2. Outline  Motivation/Background  Objectives  Study area  Materials and methods  Results and discussion  Conclusion
  • 3. MOTIVATION -1 • Dendrochronology Greek words, dendron (= tree) chronos (= time) logos (= the study of)  Tree is a recorder & biological databank  Versatile discipline = wider applications  Tree rings = Sources of proxy climatic data
  • 4. MOTIVATION-2 Treelines = sensitive bio-monitors of CC 4 Photo: Mai-He Li 2010 Photo: Shiba Raj Ghimire 2011
  • 5. OBJECTIVES  To assess treeline dynamics in the Nepal Himalaya with Environmental (climate) change  To reconstruct past climate of the Nepal Himalaya
  • 6. Study Area and Sites
  • 7. Local climate trend Annual temperature change in Chame station(°C) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 Precipitation(mm) Year KCA RARA ANCA LNP y = 0.113x - 221.8 R² = 0.179, P<0.06 0 5 10 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Temperature(°C) Year Annual average temperature in Langtang
  • 8. A. Ecological mapping 8 Materials and Methods
  • 9. Climate reconstruction and Teleconnection analysis Dpl-R; KNMI Climate Explorer Regeneration and growth - climate relationship DPL-R, Dendroclim2002, = Correlation, regression Population demography study Standardization and Chronology dev- ARSTAN Cross dating = Alignment plotting, math graphs, CDI Error checking = COFECHA Measurement- LINTAB5 Counting and Dating- Stereo Microscope Air-drying, Mounting, Sanding & Polishing Field visit and sample collection: >600 core samples Material and Methods B. Dendrochronological Study
  • 10. Data analysis… 10 (m/yr) positionsobetween twdifferenceTime positionOld-positionRecent shiftofRate  Camarero and Gutiérrez 2004, Climatic Change 63: 181–200 Materials and Methods…
  • 11. Dendrochronological study in Nepal = a glimpse 11 • More than 25 districts • Over 20 species . . . Updated on Gaire et al 2013, FUUAST JOB • Started in late 1970s • First Institutional Lab- 2009 in NAST
  • 12. Position of treeline or species limit (m asl) KCA MBNP SNP LNP MCA RNP ANCA Abies Limit 4136 3992- 4060 4062- 4141 3950 3984 3870 3763- 3768 Betula Limit 4132 NA 4047- 4132 >3950 4003 3903- 3953 3802- 3845 RESULTS
  • 13. Treeline dynamics at Sagarmatha NP
  • 14. 0 5 10 15 20 25 1797 1827 1857 1887 1917 1947 1977 2007 Frequency(%) Age class (year) A. spectabilis Treeline dynamics at Langtang NP-1 14 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 No.ofstem DBH class (cm) A. spectabilis 0 5 10 15 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 No.ofstem DBH class (cm) B. utilis 0 20 40 60 3730 3780 3830 AverageAge(yr) Elevation (m, asl) Gaire et al (2011), NJST
  • 15. Spatio- temporal variation in establishment Treeline dynamics in Manaslu CA NPGaire,M Koirala,DRBhuju, HPBorgaonkar, Climateofthe Past,2014
  • 16. Tree species limit shift- MCA  Average shift of A. spectabilis is 26.1 m per decade in past 160 yrs
  • 17. Treeline Dynamics at Rara NP
  • 18. Site chronologies of Abies spectabilis 18 Humla Manaslu CA Langtang NP Sagarmatha NP Humla 1 Manaslu CA 0.128637 1 Langtang NP 0.150578 0.411815 1 Sagarmatha NP 0.085789 0.220071 0.203266 1
  • 19. (a) ( c) (b) (d) Climatic- tree growth & regeneration Fig.6. Climate–growth & regeneration relationship; Abies ring width (a) and regeneration (b) at Manaslu, Abies ring width at Langatang ( c), Humla(d). Symbols over the bar indicate the level of significance of correlation coefficient.
  • 20. Mean MJJA Tempr Reconstruction 13.00 13.50 14.00 14.50 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50 1867 1887 1907 1927 1947 1967 1987 2007 Temperature(°C) Year MJJA_Reconstucted MJJA_Observed 10 per. Mov. Avg. (MJJA_Reconstucted) Manaslu Region Gaire et al 2013, CPD
  • 21. Fig. 3 Tree-ring chronology of P. smithiana extending from AD 1591 to 2012 along with sample depth and EPS threshold cut off. The thick line represents the 10 years spline- smoothing curve Ring width Chronology from Western Nepal Himalaya U.K. Thapa, S.K. Shah, N.P.Gaire, D.R. Bhuju, Climate Dyamics (In Press) DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2457-1
  • 22. Fig. 7 The reconstructed March–May temperature data filtered with a smoothing spline with a 50 % frequency cut off of 10 years Fig. Cold and Warm periods in reconstructed March–May temperature MAM temp reconstruction in Western Nepal Himalaya U.K. Thapa, S.K. Shah, N.P. Gaire, D.R. Bhuju, Climate Dynamics (In Press)
  • 23. Fig: Correlation between observed and estimated temperature data and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) index for tropical Pacific Ocean for the time period of AD 1897–2012 Mean MAM Temp Reconstruction… U.K. Thapa, et al (In Press) • The negative relationships suggest that warm (cool) spring season over the western Nepal Himalaya region are associated with cool (warm) SSTs in the following seasons. • Climate of western Nepal has linkages with spatio-temporal climatic variability at a global scale.
  • 24. Conclusions • Dynamic treeline with differential regeneration and shifting of species;Species-specific response to climate change • The temperature reconstruction identified several periods of warming and cooling but no consistent trend • The negative relationships with SST and different Nino indices suggest that warm (cool) spring season over the western Nepal Himalaya region are associated with cool (warm) SSTs in the following seasons Way forward • Extend studies in more treeline sites incorporating all treeline forming species for modeling species distribution and treeline position • Extend dendroclimatic study & cover areas like dendrohydrology, dendroglaciology, dendrogeomorphology, etc in Nepal
  • 25. Acknowledgements  Conference Organizing Team  Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST)  CDES-TU  DHM, DNPWC, NTNC  Friends  Field assistants  Local peoples  Other helping hands

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