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PREVENTION AND PRECAUTION MAY AVOID DISASTER
Fernando Alcoforado *
Disruption of Samarco dams in Mariana, Minas Gerais r...
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is certain of the environmental damage, this must be prevented, as recommended by the
principle of prevention.
In case o...
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Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora N...
of 3

Prevention and precaution may avoid disaster

Disruption of Samarco dams in Mariana, Minas Gerais recently occurred that has killed dozens of people and caused the toxic sludge would cause irreparable damage to the flora and fauna reaching Doce River throughout its course to the sea crossing protected areas of Atlantic Rainforest, in addition to causing a catastrophic immediate effect on the public water supply in several cities in the course of the Doce River demonstrates the urgent need for there are plans for prevention, precaution and risk management, as well as intensification of surveillance.
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Environment      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Prevention and precaution may avoid disaster

  • 1. 1 PREVENTION AND PRECAUTION MAY AVOID DISASTER Fernando Alcoforado * Disruption of Samarco dams in Mariana, Minas Gerais recently occurred that has killed dozens of people and caused the toxic sludge would cause irreparable damage to the flora and fauna reaching Doce River throughout its course to the sea crossing protected areas of Atlantic Rainforest, in addition to causing a catastrophic immediate effect on the public water supply in several cities in the course of the Doce River demonstrates the urgent need for there are plans for prevention, precaution and risk management, as well as intensification of surveillance. In 2005, 168 countries signed the Hyogo Framework of Action which is the most important tool for reducing disaster risk adopted by countries members at the United Nations. The goal is to increase the resilience of nations and communities facing disasters, aimed at substantial reduction in disaster losses of human lives, social, economic and environmental assets. The Brazilian government was a signatory of the Hyogo Framework for Action. Nevertheless, Brazil's government has been negligent in preventing accidents. This explains why there was the disruption of Samarco dams. In addition to the Brazilian government will not be prepared to deal with natural disasters, Brazilian laws does not have also an appropriate response on the subject of environmental protection. To cope with the risks of economic activity is essential to adopt measures for prevention or precaution to prevent the occurrence of catastrophic events. The Preliminary Environmental Impact Assessment is an important tool for the development of civil defense plans considering that serves to assess, predict and prevent further damage to the environment when carrying out works that modify the environment. Undoubtedly is a principle that is connected to the idea of prevention, aiming to measure the feasibility of conducting or not a work. It should be noted that the preventive or precautionary measures should support the risk management policies and, above all, be present in the proposals and actions of Civil Defense. Disaster prevention is still a bottleneck in Brazil. Today only 6% of municipalities have civil defense plan. Prevention and precaution are two sides of prudence that arise in situations where there is the possibility of damage. The principles of prevention and precaution should guide all environmental protection policy. According to Jean-Pierre Dupuy, Professor of Social and Political Philosophy at the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris, "the distinction between potential and proven risk founded parallel distinction between precaution and prevention. Precaution is on potential risks and prevention is on proven risks" [DUPUY, Jean-Pierre O tempo das catástrofes (Time of catastrophes). São Paulo: Realizações Editora, 2011). The potential risk is a dangerous event that may or may not occur which cannot be attributed probability. The proven risks can be assigned to events with their probability of occurrence. The principle of prevention is applicable to environmental impacts already known and which can be safely establish a set of causal connections which is sufficient for the identification of the most likely future impacts; namely that already has a history of information about them. The principle of prevention is intended, in the narrow sense to avoid immediate, imminent and concrete dangers, according to an immediate logic, as demand in the broad sense, deviate from possible future risks, even if not yet fully determinable, according to a prospective logic, of anticipation of future events. Where it
  • 2. 2 is certain of the environmental damage, this must be prevented, as recommended by the principle of prevention. In case of doubt or uncertainty, it must act also preventing based on the precautionary principle. In this process, it must measure to what extent it is necessary to avoid certain activity. Its universe is uncertain, requiring particular actions, risk assessment, with possible actions to reduce them, based on the comparison of different possibilities to choose one of lesser risk. The decision to avoid increasing the Earth's average temperature to 2 °C being debated at COP 21 in Paris it is a precaution to avoid the catastrophic consequences of global warming. Attention should be paid, therefore, to the distinction between risk of future nature, on which sits the precautionary principle and immediate danger associated with the logic of prevention. Prevention means act to anticipate and precaution, in turn, is equivalent to early admission to a care. Economic calculation should serve as a basis for decisions related to the prevention and precaution. In decision-making on economic alternatives to be adopted, a factor that greatly complicates the solution of a problem is uncertainty. Another complicating factor is the lack of information. It is worth noting that the decision making is a process of analysis and choice between several available alternatives, of the course of action to be followed. The decision- making process, according to Herbert Simon, consists of six steps: 1) Perception of the situation; 2) Analysis and definition of the problem; 3) Definition of objectives; 4) Looking for alternative solutions; 5) Evaluation and comparison of these alternatives; 6) Choose of the most suitable alternative [See the article Processo Decisório – Herbert Simon (Decision Making -. Herbert Simon) available on the website <http://pdherbert.blogspot.com.br/2010/10/ou-podemos-definir-em-6-etapas-essa .html>]. In deciding on the choice of the most suitable alternative, the Maximin and Minimax criteria can be adopted. The Maximin criterion is based on a pessimistic view of the problem. The alternative to be chosen will be the one that is the best among the worst option of all alternatives considered. Applied to the economic context, it's needed to determine the minimum income for each alternative and then choose the alternative with the higher minimum profit. If the decision is made taking into account the costs (rather than profit), it needs to minimize the maximum cost. Can adopt also the Maximax and Minimin criteria. The Maximax criterion is based on an optimistic view of the problem. It is supposed to take place the best possible event. The alternative will be chosen as the one that is the best among the best options of all alternatives. Applied to the economic context must determine the maximum profit for each alternative and then choose the alternative with the greatest maximum profit. If the decision is made taking into account the costs, it´s needed to minimize the minimal cost. Then used the similar criteria to Maximax criterion, which is the Minimin criteria. Finally, we can use the criterion of Hurwicz, intermediate between the most pessimistic (Maximin) and the most optimistic (Maximax).  Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
  • 3. 3 Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015).

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