World evolution of the
Agricultural Machinery
Manufacturing Sector
Pres...
Outline
• Major Challenges for Agriculture
• Analytical Framework
Main Geographical Regions
Data Sources and t...
1. Major Challenges for Agriculture
Climate Change
- temperature increase
...
From 1960 to 2005 the world population From 1950 to 2005 the land per capita has
has increased by almost 260 % ...
...but yields per ha have adapted over time to meet the challenge
...
Different Agro-climatic and Technology Levels
Yields of Main Crops
7
...
2.1 Main Geographical Regions
...
Source of Data and their Limitations
(1) Literature review and statistical data:
Predominantly UN data (FA...
Overview : Current Status of Mechanization
• Europe/EU
• High numbers of machines per ha reflect over mechanizati...
Overview : Current Status of Mechanization
• Russia
• Since 1990 decreasing number of machines/tractors
• Insu...
Overview : Current Status of Mechanization
• Latin America/Brazil
• The numbers of tractors per 1,000 ha are fairly...
Overview : Current Status of Mechanization
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Land productivity is the lowest in the world. Ave...
4.1 Impact Factors
Impact factors/drivers on
...
4.1 Impact Factors: Economic Conditions
Parameter Based Assessment:
Economic
ITY GER NEL FI...
Cross Regional Predictions
Levels of mechanization: current and future trends
Level Farm power characteristic ...
Cross Regional Predictions
Annual growth rate in % Imports ...
Cross Regional Predictions
ITY GER NEL FIN RUS IND BRA USA
Precision agriculture:...
Summary of Trends and Predictions
ITY GER ...
Summary of Trends and Predictions
USA RUS ...
Summary of Trends and Predictions
W • Accord...
Conclusions - Future trends
(1) Developing economies
The political and economical challenges need to be resolved...
Testing and safety aspects
Developed countries
• Development of performance testing methods for
the emerging mechanizat...
Testing and safety aspects
Developing countries
• Introduce new measures to promote agricultural
machinery testing
• Me...
Thank you for your
attention
24
of 24

Namal Samarakoon -

Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Namal Samarakoon -

  • 1. World evolution of the Agricultural Machinery Manufacturing Sector Presented by Dr. Namal Samarakoon Industrial Development Officer Agri-Business Development Branch United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Vienna, Austria 1
  • 2. Outline • Major Challenges for Agriculture • Analytical Framework Main Geographical Regions Data Sources and their Limitations • General Overview of Agricultural Mechanization in Different Regions of the World • Future Trends and Evolution of Agricultural Mechanization • Safety Aspects • Conclusions 2
  • 3. 1. Major Challenges for Agriculture Climate Change - temperature increase - rainfall changes - weather uncertainties Agriculture Demographic Factors - growing world population - urbanization and industrialization - changing diets Political / Economical Conditions - economic farm sizes - subsidies and support policy - infrastructure and education Bio-based Products and Bio-energy - alternative sources for commodities - competition food, feed, fibre and fuel - finite nature of crude oil and natural gas 3
  • 4. From 1960 to 2005 the world population From 1950 to 2005 the land per capita has has increased by almost 260 % decreased approximately by 50 % World population development (FAO) Development of the arable land per capita for different regions of the world (FAO) 4
  • 5. ...but yields per ha have adapted over time to meet the challenge • On specialized farms the labour productivity can reach nearly 1 000 t of cereals per worker • In comparison, agriculture without motorization and without chemical application, the productivity is more than 500 times lower Cereal yield development in different regions of the world (FAO) 5
  • 6. Different Agro-climatic and Technology Levels Yields of Main Crops 7 • Cereal yields are reflecting, t / ha 6 beside agro-climatic conditions, 5 also the overall development of cereals yield the farming systems: 4 Mechanization and other farm 3 inputs. 2 • Every region has its own 1 specific potential. 0 Asia Africa Eastern America America World Western Europe Europe South North figures of 2007, FAO 6
  • 7. 2.1 Main Geographical Regions 2 7 1 3 5 4 6 8 9 Map source: University of Texas Libraries http://lib.utexas.edu/maps/world_maps/txu-oclc-264266980-world_pol_2008-2.jpg 7
  • 8. Source of Data and their Limitations (1) Literature review and statistical data: Predominantly UN data (FAO and UNIDO) and manufacturer association sources (2) Questionnaire survey: Sample of agricultural machinery manufacturer associations worldwide Questionnaire sought feedback on the following seven (7) issues: • Impact Factors • Mechanization Levels • Cropping Systems, • Future Annual Growth Estimates • Selected Agricultural Related Issues • Machinery Technologies and Trends, • Additional Comments 8
  • 9. Overview : Current Status of Mechanization • Europe/EU • High numbers of machines per ha reflect over mechanization and great variety of farm structures • Tendency to fewer and higher powered machines • Strong industry with high rate of export • Industry data: 28 billion € production value; 135.000 employees • USA • Completely mechanized farms • Trend towards larger, higher horsepower equipment • Further technical progress tends towards automation • Industry data: $32 billion in revenue; 250.000 employees (AEM, 2008) 9
  • 10. Overview : Current Status of Mechanization • Russia • Since 1990 decreasing number of machines/tractors • Insufficient compensation of aging machines/tractors • Production capacity of local industry not renewed – limited investments • Additional taxes for imported machines • Industry data: $2.23 billion and 100.000 employees (SoyuzAgromach, 2008) • India • Agriculture contributes 25 % to the GDP and more than one third of the population gains income from agriculture • Small scale farm operations (~ 1.5 ha) are predominant • Rapid increase in numbers of machines and of mechanization custom-hire services • Fast growing tractors production: from 2002/03 to 2007/08 the production capacity doubled to reach 364.205 units 10
  • 11. Overview : Current Status of Mechanization • Latin America/Brazil • The numbers of tractors per 1,000 ha are fairly constant over the last three decades and range at about 14 in 2003 • A significant trend towards tractors of larger scale • Developing machinery manufacturing sector, mainly by international companies: sales turnover in 2007 = 3.0 billion US and nearly 41.000 employee (AMIMAQ) • The production of bio-ethanol from sugarcane plays a very important role in Brazil which in turn may be a driver for accelerating demand for agricultural machinery • Japan • The agricultural sector has been diminishing in recent decades (agricultural land, the number of farm operations and population working in agriculture) • However, the sector is highly mechanized with about 461 tractors and 237 harvesters per 1,000 ha. • Mostly small, sophisticated and specialized machines. • Further technical progress tends towards more automation • Strong industry with export to whole Asia and other regions of the world 11
  • 12. Overview : Current Status of Mechanization • Sub-Saharan Africa • Land productivity is the lowest in the world. Average grain and maize yields range at about 1 ton/ha. • 80% of agricultural area cultivated with only human power • 5% of agricultural area with tractor - Average number of tractors per 1000 ha is 1,3 • 70% of tractors in South Africa and Nigeria • On large farms in the southern regions machines from Europe, North and South America • Increasing imports from India and China • North Africa / Middle East • The levels of mechanization are significantly higher than SSA. The average number of tractors per 1000 ha is 11. Large disparities can be observed in the region, for example: • in Morocco the number of tractors per 1.000 ha averages about 6 and the number of harvesters 0.5 • in Egypt the data observed are on average 30.70 tractors and 0.79 harvesters per 1000 ha. 12
  • 13. 4.1 Impact Factors Impact factors/drivers on the demand of agr. mechanization Natural Conditions Low (+/-) Economic Conditions Strong (+/-) Rainfall/ Precipitation Low (+/-) Temperature Low (+/-) Technical progress Strong (+) Climate change Low (+/-) Economic growth Strong (+) Oil price Strong (+/-) Economic crisis Strong (-) Political Conditions Medium (+) Energy supply Med. (+/-) Food safety goals Low (+) Education and training Low (+) of farm operators Demographic Conditions Med. (+/-) Research Low (+) Population growth Low (+) Subsidies Med. (-) Excess of age in rural Med. (-) Farm structure Med. (+) areas Change in diets Med. (+) development Urbanization Med. (+/-) Biofuel production Med. (+) 13
  • 14. 4.1 Impact Factors: Economic Conditions Parameter Based Assessment: Economic ITY GER NEL FIN RUS IND BRA USA Maj. conditions Technical strong +4 +4 +3 +2 +1 +2 - - progress + Economic strong +2 +2 +4 +1 +3 +4 +3 - growth + strong Oil price -3 +3 -3 +2/-2 +4 -4 -3 -4 +/- strong Economic crisis -4 -3 -4 -2 -1 -3 -3 -4 - med. Energy supply -3 +3 +3/-3 +3/-3 -2 -3 +2 -2 +/- (0) no impact (-) negative (4) strong impact (+) positive (+/-) both 14
  • 15. Cross Regional Predictions Levels of mechanization: current and future trends Level Farm power characteristic ITY GER NEL FIN RUS IND BRA USA 1 predominantly hand power 2 significant use of draught animal power 3 draught animal power predominant 4 significant use of tractors 5 tractors dominant 6 fully motorised, technology level I 7 fully motorised, technologies level II 8 fully motorised, technology level III 9 fully motorised, technology level VI 10 fully motorised, technology level V 11 moderate share of autonomous vehicles 12 significant share of autonomous vehicles current level in up to 10 years in up to 20 years 15
  • 16. Cross Regional Predictions Annual growth rate in % Imports Exports Domestic demand 10 year prediction ITY GER NEL FIN RUS BRA USA ITY GER NEL FIN RUS BRA USA ITY GER NEL FIN RUS BRA USA small size tractors (up to 40 hp) 0 5 5 - 15 - 5 10 - - - … 5 0 5 5 5 - >17,5 10 0 medium size tractors (up to 100 hp) 5 -5 0 -5 >17,5 - 5 10 -5 - -5 … 5 0 5 0 0 -5 >17,5 5 0 big size tractors (over 100 hp) 0 0 10 0 >17,5 - 0 10 5 - 0 … 5 5 5 5 10 0 >17,5 0 5 spare parts for tractors - 0 5 -10 15 - 0 10 5 5 5 … 10 5 10 5 5 -5 >17,5 10 5 self propelled combines 0 5 0 -5 >17,5 - 0 5 5 - 5 … - 5 5 -5 0 -5 >17,5 5 5 forage harvesters 0 5 0 0 10 - 0 - 5 - - … 5 >17,5 0 0 0 5 >17,5 5 5 reapers - - - - - - 0 0 - - - … - 5 - - - - - - 5 threshers - - - - - - 0 0 - - - … - 5 - - - - - - 5 irrigation systems 0 5 5 -5 5 - 0 5 0 0 - … 5 10 5 5 5 -5 15 10 5 diesel engines 5 5 - -5 5 - 0 5 0 0 10 … - 5 5 5 0 -5 10 5 5 power tillers 0 -5 0 - 15 - 0 0 5 10 - … 5 >17,5 0 -5 0 - >17,5 0 5 food processing technique - 0 5 0 15 - 0 - 0 5 0 … - 5 - 0 0 0 … 15 5 spare parts in general 0 5 5 0 5 - 0 10 5 0 5 … 10 5 5 5 0 0 … 10 5 hand implements 0 - - - - - 0 5 - - - … - 0 5 - - - - 5 0 draught animal implements - - - - - - - - - - - … - - - - - - - -5 - Other: non tillage equipment: 10 10 ( 5 ) predicted annual growth rate in % with a range of +/ - 2,5 % points ( - ) not relevant (…) no statement 16
  • 17. Cross Regional Predictions ITY GER NEL FIN RUS IND BRA USA Precision agriculture: - tillage - - N-fertilizer application - Established in conventional production - other fertilizer application - - plant protection - more than double of today's application - guidance systems - - yield mapping - Around double of today's application Precision agriculture overall driverless tractors Current application fleet management (telematics) smart implements Less than current application ISOBUS - remote diagnostics Not relevant use of sensor technology robotics - not applicable 17
  • 18. Summary of Trends and Predictions ITY GER NEL FIN Developed industry Strong focus on medium Emphasis on innovation Places a high Status Forecast is for a shrinking size tractors (40 to 100 and growing its export importance of irrigation domestic demand/ market hp) share technology Factors that drive the demand for Strong positive impacts are expected from technical progress, subsidies and biofuel production agricultural mechanization Strong negative impacts are expected from economic crisis Highest predicted levels Lowest predicted gains and reflects Germany‘s Predictions on mechanization compared to the other Average predicted movement over the next few decades global position, use, and levels over the next 10 to 20 years Western European investment in agricultural countries mechanization Irrigation technology Post-harvest technologies Drivers of demand and the speed Harvest technologies due driven by the need to No informations given (transport, logistics, storage of agricultural mechanization to innovation potential captuire greater water and drying) saving efficiencies Medium size tractors Big size tractors (over The domestic demand (between 40 and 100 Expected growth rates of exports, 100 hp) are expected to is predicted to grow as The domestic demand is hp). Expects highest imports and the domestic demand see moderate growth in well as the import for predicted to shrink in almost annual growth rates for agricultural machinery exports and domestic big size tractors (over all machinery categories. exports and domestic demand. 100 hp). demand. All countries are quite optimistic that the use of innovative agricultural technologies will double or even more than Future application of innovative double up in the next 10 years compared to today´s application ( especially ISOBUS, sensor technology and agricultural technologies precision agriculture). 18
  • 19. Summary of Trends and Predictions USA RUS IND BRA Strong focus on Low self-sufficiency in local Rapidly developing Net exporter of agricultrual innovation and growing the production of agricultural mechanization profile machinery with a high level Status export potential of the machinery. Emphasis on driven by a national subsidy of importance placed on industry subsitence agriculture programme ethanol fuel production Low impact expected from Strong negative impact Medium positive impacts technical progress and Factors that drive the demand from oil price and strong expected from climate Strong positive impact negative impact from for agricultural mechanization positive impact from change. Subsidies will help expected from bio-fuels adverse economic subsidies drive mechanization conditions Fully motorized with a Classifies itself as tractor Predictions on mechanization Russia expects to be fully project trend towards dominant with expected levels over the next 10 to 20 motorized (over 75% of Fully motorized Level V moderate use of tractor usage rates around years cultivation area) autonomous vehicles 75% of cultivation areas Driver of mechanization Drivers of demand and the Plant genetics, plant Predicted speed of process is expected in the High demand expected in speed of agricultural protection, and fertilizer development is much lower harvesting and processing post harvest technologies mechanization application technologies than predicted demand technologies Domestic demand is High annual growth rates Expected growth rates of Highest growth rates will be We expect continuous and expected in almost all expected in almost all exports, imports and the in imports and in the increasing exports of machinery categories. High machinery categories for domestic demand for domestic demand for all tractors and implements to export growth in forage export and favourable agricultural machinery machinery categories Africa harvesters domestic demand profile. Innovative agricultural Most futuristic view with Precision farming is not Optimistic in automation Future application of technologies are not predictions of moderate expected to play any technologies and the innovative agricultural expected to paly any adoption of robotics and signifcant role in India‘s application of precision technologies significant role in Russia‘s driverless vehicles agriculture farming technologies agriculture 19
  • 20. Summary of Trends and Predictions W • According to current ^ statistics, the total African tractor fleet comprises almost 0,5 million units ^ d • But limited information is known about their age and condition Hand Draught animals Tractors • With the food crisis and the Africa (east) 50 32 17 new interest in revitalizing the Africa (south) 54 21 25 agricultural sector in Africa, Africa (west) mechanization is expected to 70 22 8 attract major investments Africa (central) 85 11 4 • Major imports from India and 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% China Figure: Agricultural power sources in africa (Source: Clarke et al. 2002, Mrema et al. 2008; changed, own illustration) 20
  • 21. Conclusions - Future trends (1) Developing economies The political and economical challenges need to be resolved by setting-up a pro-growth environment for the agricultural machinery industry. Current changes in policy towards agriculture may lead to investment in mechanization , thus increasing demand for agricultural machinery. (2) Transition economies Definite needs (imports) but insecure (economic) demand for agricultural mechanization. Various barriers (e.g. property rights and structural dev., subsidies, etc). Potential growing markets. (3) Developed economies Quantitative saturation of domestic markets. Future potentials in either export and /or innovative technologies. Major impacts from biofuel and irrigation development. 21
  • 22. Testing and safety aspects Developed countries • Development of performance testing methods for the emerging mechanization technologies • Development of safety testing procedures for the emerging mechanization technologies
  • 23. Testing and safety aspects Developing countries • Introduce new measures to promote agricultural machinery testing • Measures to promote safety of agricultural machinery among manufacturers and users • Strengthen the institutional framework
  • 24. Thank you for your attention 24

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