Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotyping
Guilherme Motta
@gfcmotta
gfcmotta at gmail
Garanta que voce esta construind...
@gfcmotta
Tive uma ideia
genial!
Background do Alberto
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotyping
Alberto Savoia
PretotypeLabs+
• 1999-2001
Startup 1
• 3M USD Series A
• +18 meses depois..
• vendeu por $100M
Hey,
this
is
easy!
• 2001-2002
Entrou na Google como Diretor de
Eng
• ..., lançou AdWords, ...
Hey,
I’m
good!
• 2002-2008
Startup 2
• $25M Series A, B, C
• +5 anos depois..
• ~$0
WTF?
Porque
o
fracasso?
2008-2012
Innovation Agitator
Engineering Diretor
Estudando fracasso de novos Produtos
A Lei do Fracasso
A maioria das novas ideias
falham
...
Mais de 95% dos aplicativos mobile nao sao
lucrativos
4 a cada 5 startups disperdicam o dinheiro
dos investidores
As tecno...
Em um ano, 24.543 novos
produtos*
Falharam 27%
Desapontaram 16%
Cancelados 37%
Sucesso 14%
“Espetaculares” 6%
Total 100%
*...
Novos Produtos
Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough
(exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or category
Extension
1,...
Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough
(exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or category
Extension
1,705 6.9%
“Me to...
Novos Produtos
* Nielsen
Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough
(exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or category
Ex...
A Lei do Fracasso
A maioria das novas ideias
falham
MESMO QUE ELAS SEJAM MUITO BEM EXECUTADAS
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Iridium satellite phone system (66 satellites, $6B)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• “New Coke” ou “Crystal Pepsi” (est. $50M)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Filme “John Carter” ($275M + $100M in marketing)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Google Wave (~$20-30M)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Segway transporter (~$180M in funding)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Pontiac Aztek ($200M+)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Apple Newton (est. $50M)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• CueCat USB barcode scanner ($180M)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Microsoft Bob or “Clippy” (est. $50M)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Ate mesmo com..
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com o Google..
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com a Microsoft..
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com inventores e
VCs brilhantes
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Acontece com os
melhores marketeiros do
mundo
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Com voce nao?
OUCH!
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
HIT or FLOP
F.L.O.P.
Fracasso em
Lancamento
Operacional ou
Proposito
Pretotyping
ao Resgate!
Garanta que voce
esta construindo
“a coisa” certa
Antes de
construir certo
“a coisa”
Pretotyping
Mas como que voce
sabe se voce tem
a “coisa” certa?
NAO PERGUNTE!
Literalmente..
Nao pergunte.
Ideias +
Perguntas =
PROBLEMA
IDEIAIDEIA
OpiniãoOpinião
OpiniãoOpinião
OpiniãoOpinião
Bem vindo aBem vindo a
Terra das IdeiasTerra das Ideias
asavoia@gm...
VisaoVisao
IdeiasIdeias
OpinioesOpinioes
PaixaoPaixao
RealidadeRealidade
ArtefatosArtefatos
DadosDados
RazaoRazao
Pretotyp...
Terra das Ideias
Onde todas as ideias sao um sucesso!
Falso Positivo
Terra das Ideias
Onde todas as ideias sao um fracasso!
Falso Negativo
??????
Fuja da Terra
das Ideias!
Opinioes -> Dados
Perguntas -> Acoes
Ideias -> Pretotypes
Mas o que e’
pretotype?
O original Palm “Pre”
Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
$$$$$$$
“Nos amamos a ideia de traducao de fala
para texto e nos estamos dispostos a
pagar muito dinheiro se voce conseguir
constr...
Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
Pretendotype
Pretotype
X
“Veja bem..”
Antes do
pretotype
Depois do
pretotype
Fail Fast
Compulsividade
para continuar
minutos horas dias semanas
Tempo investido
meses anos
Pretotyping
“Fake it” antes de fazer a coisa
Prototyping
• Investimento: dias,
semanas
• Pergunta principal:
Conseguimos c...
Pretotyping
“Fake it” antes de fazer a coisa
Prototyping
• Investimento: dias,
semanas
• Pergunta principal:
Conseguimos c...
•Prototipo de Papel
•Prototipo de Volume
•Encenacao
•Storyboard
•…
Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping],
verb: Validating the market
appeal and actual usage of a
potential objectively,
quantifi...
Exemplos de
tecnicas
Pretotyping
The Fake Door
Pretotypes
Pretotype It
www.pretotypeitbook.com
The official book on pretotyping
by Alberto Savoia. Only $20...
Mechanical Turk
Pretotypes
Pinocchio
Pretotypes
Pretotypes
Personificador
ProdutoProduto
Existente ouExistente ou
embalagemembalagem
Nova “casca”Nova “casca”
One-Night Stand
Pretotypes
PretoStorming
Brainstorming : Ideas -> Opinions
Pretostorming : Pretotypes -> Data
MVP
Pretotypes
Minimum
Viable
Product
Pretotyping
in
Action
Mobile Apps
Android Pretotyping Kit 0.1
The Birth of Android Pretotyping
SendSend
ParkJerk
Androgen
Pretotyping Tool for Android
+ + =
?
Androgen
Pretotype working Android
apps in minutes
A
179.2179.2
SendSend
Enter your weight:
Pretotype It!
Pawsbook: Social network for pets (B2C)
GhostBus: Self-driving city buses (B2B, B2Gov)
Offering free lunch a...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Quer saber mais?
gfcmotta@gmail.com
PDF Gratis e na Amazon
Quer em Portugues? Ajude a tr...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
PretoMetrics
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping],
verb: Validating the market
appeal and actual usage of...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
An Intro to
Pretotyping Metrics
RPI: Return on Pretotyping Investment
ILI/OLI: Initial/O...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
RPI
Return on
Pretotyping
Investment
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)
RPI = ______________ _____________
Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)
X...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
RPI for a Webvan
Pretotype
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
What should we learn?
(before we blow $100M)
Will people use the web to order groceries?...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotype for
Pretotype 1: MVP
Create a high-quality website.
Advertise locally in a maj...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)
RPI = ______________ _____________
Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)
X...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
RPI vs RIP
We shouldaWe shoulda
pretotypedpretotyped
it!it!
Yup.Yup.
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Time RPI for
.50 60 mos
.80 1 mos
RPI = .62 x 60 = 37.5x “faster learning”
Learning (Pre...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
ILI/OLI
Level of Interest
(If we build, will they come?)
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
ILI
Initial Level of Interest:
What % of a target group is
interested in ‘it’ to give it...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
ILI
ILI = ________________________________
# invited to try ‘it’
# who’ve actually tried...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Small
representative
sample (~100-
1,000)
I (1000)
Time
T (741)
ILI in Action
Target mar...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
OLI
Ongoing Level of Interest:
What % of a target group
continues to use/buy ‘it’ after
...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
OLI(t)
OLI(t) = __________________________________________
# who tried ‘it’
# still usin...
Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Time
I (people invited to try innovation)
T (people who actually try it)
R4 (...4 weeks)...
Pretotyping g motta agile brazil 2013
Pretotyping g motta agile brazil 2013
Pretotyping g motta agile brazil 2013
Pretotyping g motta agile brazil 2013
of 90

Pretotyping g motta agile brazil 2013

Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Technology      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Pretotyping g motta agile brazil 2013

  • 1. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Pretotyping Guilherme Motta @gfcmotta gfcmotta at gmail Garanta que voce esta construindo “a coisa” certa Antes de construir certo “a coisa”
  • 2. @gfcmotta
  • 3. Tive uma ideia genial!
  • 4. Background do Alberto
  • 5. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Pretotyping Alberto Savoia PretotypeLabs+
  • 6. • 1999-2001 Startup 1 • 3M USD Series A • +18 meses depois.. • vendeu por $100M Hey, this is easy!
  • 7. • 2001-2002 Entrou na Google como Diretor de Eng • ..., lançou AdWords, ... Hey, I’m good!
  • 8. • 2002-2008 Startup 2 • $25M Series A, B, C • +5 anos depois.. • ~$0 WTF? Porque o fracasso?
  • 9. 2008-2012 Innovation Agitator Engineering Diretor Estudando fracasso de novos Produtos
  • 10. A Lei do Fracasso A maioria das novas ideias falham ...
  • 11. Mais de 95% dos aplicativos mobile nao sao lucrativos 4 a cada 5 startups disperdicam o dinheiro dos investidores As tecnologias mais inovadoras falham no mercado ...
  • 12. Em um ano, 24.543 novos produtos* Falharam 27% Desapontaram 16% Cancelados 37% Sucesso 14% “Espetaculares” 6% Total 100% * Nielsen 80%
  • 13. Novos Produtos Categoria # de produtos % de produtos Breakthrough (exemplo: Iphone) 334 1.4% Line or category Extension 1,705 6.9% “Me too” (exemplo: genericos) 18,814 76.7% Others (seasonal, etc.) 3,690 15.0% Total 24,543 100% * Nielsen
  • 14. Categoria # de produtos % de produtos Breakthrough (exemplo: Iphone) 334 1.4% Line or category Extension 1,705 6.9% “Me too” (exemplo: genericos) 18,814 76.7% Others (seasonal, etc.) 3,690 15.0% Total 24,543 100% Novos Produtos * Nielsen Porque? Porque?
  • 15. Novos Produtos * Nielsen Categoria # de produtos % de produtos Breakthrough (exemplo: Iphone) 334 1.4% Line or category Extension 1,705 6.9% “Me too” (exemplo: genericos) 18,814 76.7% Others (seasonal, etc.) 3,690 15.0% Total 24,543 100% Pouca disputa, Pouca disputa, Mas GRANDE resultado Mas GRANDE resultado
  • 16. A Lei do Fracasso A maioria das novas ideias falham MESMO QUE ELAS SEJAM MUITO BEM EXECUTADAS
  • 17. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Alguns fracassos notaveis • Iridium satellite phone system (66 satellites, $6B)
  • 18. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Alguns fracassos notaveis • “New Coke” ou “Crystal Pepsi” (est. $50M)
  • 19. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Alguns fracassos notaveis • Filme “John Carter” ($275M + $100M in marketing)
  • 20. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Alguns fracassos notaveis • Google Wave (~$20-30M)
  • 21. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Alguns fracassos notaveis • Segway transporter (~$180M in funding)
  • 22. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Alguns fracassos notaveis • Pontiac Aztek ($200M+)
  • 23. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Alguns fracassos notaveis • Apple Newton (est. $50M)
  • 24. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Alguns fracassos notaveis • CueCat USB barcode scanner ($180M)
  • 25. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Alguns fracassos notaveis • Microsoft Bob or “Clippy” (est. $50M)
  • 26. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Ate mesmo com..
  • 27. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Acontece com o Google..
  • 28. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Acontece com a Microsoft..
  • 29. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Acontece com inventores e VCs brilhantes
  • 30. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Acontece com os melhores marketeiros do mundo
  • 31. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Com voce nao?
  • 32. OUCH!
  • 33. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs HIT or FLOP F.L.O.P. Fracasso em Lancamento Operacional ou Proposito
  • 34. Pretotyping ao Resgate!
  • 35. Garanta que voce esta construindo “a coisa” certa Antes de construir certo “a coisa” Pretotyping
  • 36. Mas como que voce sabe se voce tem a “coisa” certa? NAO PERGUNTE! Literalmente.. Nao pergunte.
  • 37. Ideias + Perguntas = PROBLEMA
  • 38. IDEIAIDEIA OpiniãoOpinião OpiniãoOpinião OpiniãoOpinião Bem vindo aBem vindo a Terra das IdeiasTerra das Ideias asavoia@gmail.com Alberto Savoia www.pretotyping.org
  • 39. VisaoVisao IdeiasIdeias OpinioesOpinioes PaixaoPaixao RealidadeRealidade ArtefatosArtefatos DadosDados RazaoRazao Pretotyping
  • 40. Terra das Ideias Onde todas as ideias sao um sucesso! Falso Positivo
  • 41. Terra das Ideias Onde todas as ideias sao um fracasso! Falso Negativo
  • 42. ??????
  • 43. Fuja da Terra das Ideias! Opinioes -> Dados Perguntas -> Acoes Ideias -> Pretotypes
  • 44. Mas o que e’ pretotype?
  • 45. O original Palm “Pre”
  • 46. Dear Mr. Jones, In reply to your letter dated ... $$$$$$$
  • 47. “Nos amamos a ideia de traducao de fala para texto e nos estamos dispostos a pagar muito dinheiro se voce conseguir construir bem feito” Antes dos testes com pretotype Porcentagem de pessoas interessadas
  • 48. Dear Mr. Jones, In reply to your letter dated ... Pretendotype Pretotype X
  • 49. “Veja bem..” Antes do pretotype Depois do pretotype
  • 50. Fail Fast Compulsividade para continuar minutos horas dias semanas Tempo investido meses anos
  • 51. Pretotyping “Fake it” antes de fazer a coisa Prototyping • Investimento: dias, semanas • Pergunta principal: Conseguimos construir? • Entregavel: prototipo funcional Pretotyping • Investimento: horas, dias • Pergunta principal: Voce usaria? • Entregavel: pretotype “funcional”
  • 52. Pretotyping “Fake it” antes de fazer a coisa Prototyping • Investimento: dias, semanas • Pergunta principal: Conseguimos construir? • Entregavel: prototipo funcional Pretotyping • Investimento: horas, dias • Pergunta principal: Voce usaria? • Entregavel: pretotype “funcional” Como construir? Como sera utilizado?
  • 53. •Prototipo de Papel •Prototipo de Volume •Encenacao •Storyboard •…
  • 54. Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping], verb: Validating the market appeal and actual usage of a potential objectively, quantifiably and with the smallest possible investment of time and money.
  • 55. Exemplos de tecnicas Pretotyping
  • 56. The Fake Door Pretotypes Pretotype It www.pretotypeitbook.com The official book on pretotyping by Alberto Savoia. Only $20.00
  • 57. Mechanical Turk Pretotypes
  • 58. Pinocchio Pretotypes
  • 59. Pretotypes Personificador ProdutoProduto Existente ouExistente ou embalagemembalagem Nova “casca”Nova “casca”
  • 60. One-Night Stand Pretotypes
  • 61. PretoStorming Brainstorming : Ideas -> Opinions Pretostorming : Pretotypes -> Data
  • 62. MVP Pretotypes Minimum Viable Product
  • 63. Pretotyping in Action Mobile Apps
  • 64. Android Pretotyping Kit 0.1 The Birth of Android Pretotyping
  • 65. SendSend ParkJerk Androgen Pretotyping Tool for Android + + = ?
  • 66. Androgen Pretotype working Android apps in minutes A 179.2179.2 SendSend Enter your weight:
  • 67. Pretotype It! Pawsbook: Social network for pets (B2C) GhostBus: Self-driving city buses (B2B, B2Gov) Offering free lunch and dinner to all employees (Internal) UNuke: Small nuclear power stations for rural communities (B2Gov) Vanity Fare: Food/drinks enriched with ingredients for great skin and hair (B2B) HappyGlass: Windows that convert/create light spectrum to fight SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorders) (B2B or B2C) GoldHound: A luxury version of GreyHound with first-class seating and treatment (B2B) InstaNap: The opposite of energy drinks like RedBull or 5hr Energy (B2B) SpeedInterviewing: Like speed-dating but for candidate interviews (Internal) 2nd-day Sushi: Less-fresh but lower-cost sushi (B2C) Rent-a-mechanic: Rent an expert for used car shopping and negotiating (B2C) Self-funded extended warranty: Automatically saves in a your fund from each purchase (B2C) EatSlow plates: Food plates that open and close to slow down your eating (B2C) Biodegradable holiday lights: Lights that take themselves down after the holidays (B2C) TakeMySpot: Mobile app/service to auction the parking spot you are about to vacate (B2C, B2Gov) OopsMail: a corporate email filter that automatically detects & re-routs inappropriate emails (B2C, Internal) Fake-a-Mate: Rent a pretend great boy/girlfriend for social events (B2C) ReviewsNow: a mobile app for on-the-spot/real-time employee micro-reviews and feedback (Internal) MeetGrinder: a smart corporate calendar that (re)arranges meetings to maximize meeting-free time (B2B, Internal)
  • 68. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Quer saber mais? gfcmotta@gmail.com PDF Gratis e na Amazon Quer em Portugues? Ajude a traduzir! Livros Videos Twitter: @gfcmotta asavoia@gmail.com Twitter: @Pretotyping
  • 69. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs PretoMetrics
  • 70. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping], verb: Validating the market appeal and actual usage of a potential objectively, quantifiably and with the smallest possible investment of time and money.
  • 71. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs An Intro to Pretotyping Metrics RPI: Return on Pretotyping Investment ILI/OLI: Initial/Ongoing Level of Interest PretoBayesian Metrics: How to factor in the impact of pretotyping data in decision making
  • 72. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs RPI Return on Pretotyping Investment
  • 73. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro) RPI = ______________ _____________ Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre) X RPI How much (%) can you learn from a given pretotype compared to the full product. How much (%) can you learn from a prototype or final product. Set to 100% for the final product. How much would it cost (time or $) to develop and test/market a prototype or the final product. How much would it cost (time or $) to create and test a given pretotype.
  • 74. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs RPI for a Webvan Pretotype
  • 75. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs What should we learn? (before we blow $100M) Will people use the web to order groceries? What % of people would use it? How often would they use it? Will people in cities use it more than people in suburbs? What kind of products will they buy? What’s the $ value of average transaction? How many will continue to use it after the novelty has worn off?
  • 76. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Pretotype for Pretotype 1: MVP Create a high-quality website. Advertise locally in a major city (e.g., San Francisco) and a suburb (e.g., Palo Alto.) If/when orders come in, purchase food at existing stores. Rent delivery trucks and hire temporary personnel to deliver food. Run experiment for, say, 4 weeks.
  • 77. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro) RPI = ______________ _____________ Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre) X $ RPI for .75 $100M 1.00 $1M RPI = .75 x 100 = 75 = 7500% cheaper
  • 78. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs RPI vs RIP We shouldaWe shoulda pretotypedpretotyped it!it! Yup.Yup.
  • 79. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Time RPI for .50 60 mos .80 1 mos RPI = .62 x 60 = 37.5x “faster learning” Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro) RPI = ______________ _____________ Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre) X
  • 80. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs ILI/OLI Level of Interest (If we build, will they come?)
  • 81. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs ILI Initial Level of Interest: What % of a target group is interested in ‘it’ to give it a try?
  • 82. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs ILI ILI = ________________________________ # invited to try ‘it’ # who’ve actually tried ‘it’
  • 83. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Small representative sample (~100- 1,000) I (1000) Time T (741) ILI in Action Target market ILI = 741/1,000 = .741
  • 84. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs OLI Ongoing Level of Interest: What % of a target group continues to use/buy ‘it’ after they’ve tried it.
  • 85. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs OLI(t) OLI(t) = __________________________________________ # who tried ‘it’ # still using ‘it’ after time t
  • 86. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs Time I (people invited to try innovation) T (people who actually try it) R4 (...4 weeks) R2 (...2 weeks) R1 (return/retained users after 1 week) ILI: Initial Level of Interest OLI: Ongoing Level of Interest OLI in Action

Related Documents