Political Dimensions of
Population Shifts
©Jack A. Goldstone
The Age-Structural Relationship between Median Age
and Democracy (From R. Cincotta 2015)
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Percent
FREE
...
Why Does Age Matter?
• Education grows with higher median age:
fewer children mean higher educational
investment per child...
Emerging Market Countries Differ
Median Age Gross Enrollment
2015 2030
(% of age group in
Secondary Education)
Brazil 31.2...
China’s Strange Future
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pop 15-24
Pop 65+
POP in
Milli...
of 5

Jack Goldstone: Political dimensions of population shifts

Two leading experts—Prof. Albert Park of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and Prof. Jack Goldstone of George Mason University—examined the political and economic ramifications of the population challenges facing emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil, and North Africa. Learn more about the event at http://iems.ust.hk/events/event/political-economic-consequences-demographic-change-emerging-markets-hkust-iems-ey-hong-kong-emerging-market-insights-series/
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Economy & Finance      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Jack Goldstone: Political dimensions of population shifts

  • 1. Political Dimensions of Population Shifts ©Jack A. Goldstone
  • 2. The Age-Structural Relationship between Median Age and Democracy (From R. Cincotta 2015) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Percent FREE Median Age 15 25 35 45
  • 3. Why Does Age Matter? • Education grows with higher median age: fewer children mean higher educational investment per child • Demographic Dividend provides more resources for education • Smaller youth cohorts mean less violence • Less dependence on family and clan, more dependence on a reliable state
  • 4. Emerging Market Countries Differ Median Age Gross Enrollment 2015 2030 (% of age group in Secondary Education) Brazil 31.2 37.1 53.6* Russia 38.5 42.4 85 India 26.9 31.3 69 China 36.0 42.1 87 South Africa 26.5 29.1 102 Turkey 30.1 35.7 89 Indonesia 28.4 32.5 81 Mexico 27.7 33.6 84 Egypt 25.8 29.1 76 Ghana 20.9 23.8 58 Kenya 19.0 21.6 60 Nigeria 17.7 18.6 44 Philippines 23.4 27.0 85 Vietnam 30.7 38.4 65* Hong Kong 42.1 106 * % with some secondary Ed
  • 5. China’s Strange Future 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Pop 15-24 Pop 65+ POP in Millions

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