Summary
We forecasts very little to no improvement in insolvencies in the majority of
advanced markets in 2016. Only a 3% ...
by depreciating currencies and loosening monetary policy,
bankruptcies are forecast to rise 6% in Australia and stay
flat ...
Insolvency growth, percent change per annum
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Australia -4 18 3 -1 5 1 4...
Disclaimer
This report is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation as to particular ...
of 4

Previsión evolución de las insolvencias internacionales

En 2016 muchos mercados avanzados registrarán un aumento de los riesgos para hacer negocios, según recoge el último informe distribuido por Crédito y Caución. Tras el buen comportamiento de 2015, las perspectivas de riesgo contempladas por la aseguradora de crédito líder en España se mueven bruscamente a la baja. La aseguradora espera muy poca o ninguna mejoría en la mayoría de los mercados en un entorno inestable debido a los bajos precios del petróleo, la normalización monetaria en Estados Unidos y los inciertos efectos de una desaceleración en los mercados emergentes.
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Economy & Finance      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Previsión evolución de las insolvencias internacionales

  • 1. Summary We forecasts very little to no improvement in insolvencies in the majority of advanced markets in 2016. Only a 3% improvement is expected, the lowest since 2012. The challenging external environment and low commodity prices are increasing business risks and bankruptcies could pick up in spite of strengthening domestic economies. Business risks are rising in 2016 Across many advanced markets, business risks are expected to increase in 2016 after the positive developments seen in 2015. Atradius forecasts very little to no improvement in the majority of markets in 2016, with risks to the outlook sharply to the downside – stemming from low oil prices, US monetary normalisation and the uncertain impacts of a slowdown in emerging markets. The low level of commodity prices is expected to continue to weigh on the outlook for commodity-dependent economies. These include Australia and Norway where commodity-related exports account for more than 60% of the total. While both economies are slowly adjusting, aided Insolvency Forecasts Economic Research – February 2016 Deteriorating Australia Greece Stable Austria, Canada, Germany, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United States United Kingdom Luxembourg, Portugal Improving Finland, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy, Spain Low Average High Insolvency matrix 2016 Source: Atradius Economic Research
  • 2. by depreciating currencies and loosening monetary policy, bankruptcies are forecast to rise 6% in Australia and stay flat in Norway. Absolute levels remain above pre-crisis levels in both economies: +22% and +42% respectively. North America will also face pressure from low oil prices as investment in the relatively expensive American and Canadian oil stays restrained. Canada is forecast to see no change in insolvencies and the United States is forecast to see a drop of only 2%. The Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle could challenge businesses in the US by making commercial loans more expensive.Monetary policy divergence between the US and most other advanced markets, however, makes US assets more attractive for international investors, which should improve liquidity overall in the US but may have the opposite effect elsewhere. Particularly for the Asia-Pacific countries – Australia, Japan and New Zealand – the turmoil in emerging markets, driven by the slowdown in China and low commodity prices, will be an obstacle for firms. Lower demand in emerging markets, exacerbated by weaker domestic currencies, will also continue to drag on exporting businesses in the eurozone, US, UK and in Denmark, where insolvencies remain 58% higher than in 2007. Eurozone recovery on track In line with the solid economic recovery in the eurozone, the business environment is forecast to see another year of improvements. With only -5% change in aggregate insolvencies, the improvement is half of what it was in 2014, when the economy was much more fragile. The total number of businesses forecast to go bankrupt in 2016 is also still 67% higher than in 2007. Greece, in particular, is weighing on the eurozone’s outlook with a further 5% increase in business failures forecast for 2016, after 10% estimated in 2015. Political uncertainty, low consumption and capital controls continue to create a very difficult operating environment for the small and medium-sized enterprises that dominate Greece’s economy. The ongoing Greek government debt crisis has driven national insolvency rates to more than five times the level in 2007. The level of business bankruptcies around the periphery of the Eurozone remain remarkably higher than before the onset of the global financial crisis. Portugal’s level is 4.4 times higher than in 2007; Italy’s is 2.8; and Spain’s is 2.5. Overall, the Netherlands and Spain are forecast to see the most improvement again in 2016. The booming economic recovery in Ireland, the other top runner of 2015, is expected to slow down slightly this year, with insolvencies only forecast to fall 6% and, like in Spain, to remain over twice as high as before the debt crisis. Atradius Economic Research
  • 3. Insolvency growth, percent change per annum 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f Australia -4 18 3 -1 5 1 4 -22 11 6 Austria -6 0 9 -8 -8 3 -10 -1 -5 -2 Belgium 1 10 11 2 7 4 11 -9 -9 -7 Canada -7 -2 -12 -20 -11 -12 -2 -2 -3 0 Denmark 21 54 54 13 -15 0 -10 -20 1 -4 Finland -1 16 25 -13 3 0 11 -11 -14 -7 France 7 8 14 -5 -1 3 2 0 -1 -4 Germany -15 0 12 -2 -6 -6 -8 -7 -5 -2 Greece 0 30 40 30 33 30 10 3 10 5 Ireland 19 100 50 10 7 3 -19 -15 -10 -6 Italy -35 18 29 21 8 14 16 10 1 -4 Japan 6 11 -1 -14 -4 -5 -11 -10 -9 -5 Luxembourg 5 -13 17 33 5 8 2 -20 7 0 Netherlands -23 1 73 -10 -1 21 10 -19 -21 -15 New Zealand -5 -35 45 -6 -12 -8 -13 -7 -1 0 Norway -6 28 38 -12 -2 -12 20 -5 -7 0 Portugal -12 54 36 16 18 42 8 -9 12 -2 Spain 10 100 50 -2 14 38 13 -30 -25 -10 Sweden -5 7 20 -4 -4 7 5 -7 -11 -6 Switzerland -5 -2 24 20 7 3 -5 -7 7 0 United Kingdom -5 24 23 -16 5 -4 -7 -6 -9 -1 United States 2 52 41 -7 -15 -16 -17 -19 -10 -2 Sources: National bureaus, Atradius Economic Research f=forecast Insolvency level, index 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f Australia 100 118 121 120 126 127 133 104 115 122 Austria 100 100 110 101 93 96 87 86 82 80 Belgium 100 110 123 125 133 138 153 140 127 118 Canada 100 98 86 69 62 54 54 52 51 51 Denmark 100 154 238 269 228 227 204 163 165 158 Finland 100 116 145 127 131 131 145 129 111 103 France 100 108 123 118 116 119 122 122 121 116 Germany 100 100 112 110 103 97 89 83 79 77 Greece 100 130 182 237 315 409 450 463 510 535 Ireland 100 200 300 330 354 365 296 252 227 214 Italy 100 118 151 183 197 223 259 285 288 277 Japan 100 111 110 95 90 86 77 69 63 60 Luxembourg 100 87 102 135 141 152 155 124 132 132 Netherlands 100 101 175 158 156 189 207 167 132 112 New Zealand 100 65 94 89 78 72 63 58 58 58 Norway 100 128 176 156 153 134 161 152 142 142 Portugal 100 154 210 242 286 405 438 398 446 437 Spain 100 200 300 293 335 463 523 366 274 247 Sweden 100 107 128 123 117 126 133 123 110 103 Switzerland 100 98 121 145 154 159 150 140 149 149 United Kingdom 100 124 153 128 135 129 120 112 102 101 United States 100 152 215 199 169 142 117 95 86 84 Sources: National bureaus, Atradius Economic Research f=forecast, index 2007 = 100
  • 4. Disclaimer This report is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation as to particular transactions, investments or strategies in any way to any reader. Readers must make their own independent decisions, commercial or otherwise, regarding the information provided. While we have made every attempt to ensure that the information contained in this report has been obtained from reliable sources, Atradius is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information in this report is provided ’as is’, with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from its use, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied. In no event will Atradius, its related partnerships or corporations, or the partners, agents or employees thereof, be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information in this report or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Copyright Atradius N.V. 2016 Paseo de la Castellana, 4 28046 Madrid T. +34 914 326 300 F. +34 914 326 501 creditoycaucion.es

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