Investigating consensus versus conflict between the Greek and Portuguese political elites during the economic crisis:...
• Offer possible explanations of the fact that the consensus’ between the two major political parties concerning the ...
As a synonym of legitimacyAs an expression of solidarity or social cohesionWords such as “harmony”, “unanimity”, “generala...
Is a more extensive type of consensus needed in times of crisis?(McClosky 1964)Two different schools in elite theory◦ Majo...
“Consensus Period I” (through 2010): consensus between PS and PSD to aseries of austerity packages demanded by the EU to t...
Dissensus Period I :Pre-Memorandum period -end of 2009: PASOK expresseddoubts about the accuracy of the previous governmen...
Portugal is consensual and unitary, while Greece is an “eccentric” caseof majoritarianism (Lijphart et al. 1988)Nonplural ...
4.04 for Portugal and 8.08 for Greece on thedisproportionality and type of electoral system used inlegislative elections.G...
k −1 LSQ = ∑ ( Fi − 0.5 ) 2 i =1Range [0,1]Value 0: minimum consensusValue...
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree
60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree
Women jobs Globalization Torturing a prisonerImmigrants customs Politics to abstain Military assistanceSame-sex ...
Social security Reform democracy Matters of abortion Stiffer sentencesImmigrants are goodIncome redistributed ...
60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree ...
60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree ...
80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree ...
PS PSDPortugal 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7
80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree ...
PASOK NDGreece 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6
70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree ...
70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Yes, definitely Yes, probably Undecided No, probably not No, definitely not ...
50%40%30%20%10%0% Left 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Right PASOK ND
50%40%30%20%10%0% Left 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Right PSD PS
The only issue of intensive conflict among thePortuguese candidates is the one of prohibition of thesame-sex marriages by ...
The Portuguese data reveal trends towards economic liberalism,while the Greek data reveals overall preferences in favour o...
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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Political consensus and conflict in greece and portugal

Presented at the 2nd Plenary Conference of the CCS "The Comparative Analysis of Political Attitudes and Behaviours of Candidates Standing for Office in National Parliament Elections", MZES, University of Mannheim, 27 – 29 January 2012
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: News & Politics      Technology      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Political consensus and conflict in greece and portugal

  • 1. Investigating consensus versus conflict between the Greek and Portuguese political elites during the economic crisis: a matter of ideology? Eftichia Teperoglou Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES) & Institute of Greek Politics , Department of Political Science and Public Administration, University of Athens, Greece & Ioannis Andreadis Department of Political Sciences, Aristotle University Thessaloniki, Greece2nd Plenary Conference of the CCSThe Comparative Analysis of Political Attitudes and Behavioursof Candidates Standing for Office in National Parliament ElectionsMannheim 27-29 January 2012
  • 2. • Offer possible explanations of the fact that the consensus’ between the two major political parties concerning the need to pursue restrictive economic policies has proven to be far more elusive in the case of Greece in relation to Portugal ► Examine the perceptions of candidates belonging to Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) and Nea Dimokratia (ND) for Greece and Partido Socialista (PS) and Partido Social Democrata (PSD) for Portugal at a time right before the full onset of the crisis.• Determine whether ideological distance (or proximity) is responsible for the divergent outcomes of the two countries or whether the latter should be attributed to other factors.• Identify patterns of differentiation not only between the political elites of the two countries, but also within each country’s political personnel. How? We are using data from the 2009 CCS surveys and we compare the ideological preferences and value orientations around specific issues which have been included at the Core CCS Questionnaire Make the first steps towards a model of measurement of consensus for ordered categorical data
  • 3. As a synonym of legitimacyAs an expression of solidarity or social cohesionWords such as “harmony”, “unanimity”, “generalagreement” and “accord” capture some of the other mainaspects of “ consensus”In politics, it can be defined as an operationcharacterized by reliance upon compromise and asearch for some accommodation of divergent interests
  • 4. Is a more extensive type of consensus needed in times of crisis?(McClosky 1964)Two different schools in elite theory◦ Major external events often push some elite groups to move towards a Pareto-optimal equilibrium.◦ in a crisis political consensus is almost impossible to achieve within a context of fiscal austerityEconomical decline (but also economic growth; Olson 1963) is oftenlinked to political conflict
  • 5. “Consensus Period I” (through 2010): consensus between PS and PSD to aseries of austerity packages demanded by the EU to tackle the difficulties inborrowing money from the marketBeginning of 2011: the public debt and the unemployment rate weredramatically increased; the interest rate in the secondary markets had passedthe 7%, the internal and external pressure to accept the bailout had a prominentposition in the political agenda23 March 2011: the opposition parties rejected a new austerity package to bepassed. Sócrates resigned, early elections were scheduled for the 5th of June2011“Consensus Period II” : on 6 April 2011 Sócrates officially asked for a bailoutfor Portugal (a €78 billion bailout package). The memorandum of agreementwas completed in early May and subscribed by all three parties (PS, PSD andCDS-PP)Dissensus Period I : After the agreement various debates and conflicts on thequestion of responsibility for the financial situation of the countryLegislative elections of June 2011: a “Post-Bail-out Election” (Magalhães2011); lowest-ever for a legislative election turnout (58%), defeat of the PS, thecoalition government PSD-CDS, party system fragmentation which remainedunchanged compared to 2009
  • 6. Dissensus Period I :Pre-Memorandum period -end of 2009: PASOK expresseddoubts about the accuracy of the previous government’s calculations of thebudget deficit and announced that the actual deficit was several percentagepoints (of GDP) higher in relation to the figure that was presented by the formerconservative government ( “unreliable” economic figures)On 23 April 2010: the Greek government requested that the EU- ECB-IMFbailout package be activated and beginning of Dissensus Period IIDissensus Period III: for the “Mid-term Strategy Plan” (June 2011) : PASOKand ND failed to reach a consensus on the necessary measures to qualify forthis package; growing political unrest, re-shuffled cabinet, vote of confidence inthe parliamentDissensus Period IV: end of October- beginning of November 2011 proposalof referendum- vote for confidence in order to begin the negotiations withopposition parties to form a coalition “emergency” government.11 November 2011: coalition government formed by PASOK, ND and LAOS.Start of a consensus period?
  • 7. Portugal is consensual and unitary, while Greece is an “eccentric” caseof majoritarianism (Lijphart et al. 1988)Nonplural societiesTrend of significant reduction of the effective number of parliamentaryparties in Portugal. In both countries the number is now around 3.In both countries, the socio-economic dimension is the only one withhigh salience. Religious, regime support and foreign policy are at thegroup of medium salience in Portugal, while in Greece is only theregime supportOn the proportions of time during which minimal winning cabinets andone-party cabinets were in power, Greece is an exception as it standsin the same group with the British-heritage countries at the majoritarianend, reaching the remarkable mean of 96.9. For Portugal the twoelements are unequally combined; the mean is on 40.2
  • 8. 4.04 for Portugal and 8.08 for Greece on thedisproportionality and type of electoral system used inlegislative elections.Greece represents one of the most prominent examplesof majoritarianism, while in Portugal there is markedmove away from the initial post-authoritarian model ofconsensus democracy.Any attempt to include the two countries in the samegroup is bound to fail to capture the much more dynamicaspects of the Portuguese system.
  • 9. k −1 LSQ = ∑ ( Fi − 0.5 ) 2 i =1Range [0,1]Value 0: minimum consensusValue 1: maximum consensus
  • 10. 100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree
  • 11. 100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree
  • 12. 60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree
  • 13. Women jobs Globalization Torturing a prisonerImmigrants customs Politics to abstain Military assistanceSame-sex marriages 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 Portugal Greece
  • 14. Social security Reform democracy Matters of abortion Stiffer sentencesImmigrants are goodIncome redistributed 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 Portugal Greece
  • 15. 60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree Party A Party B
  • 16. 60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree Party A Party B
  • 17. 80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree Party A Party B
  • 18. PS PSDPortugal 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7
  • 19. 80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree PSD PS
  • 20. PASOK NDGreece 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6
  • 21. 70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree PASOK ND
  • 22. 70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% Yes, definitely Yes, probably Undecided No, probably not No, definitely not PASOK ND
  • 23. 50%40%30%20%10%0% Left 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Right PASOK ND
  • 24. 50%40%30%20%10%0% Left 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Right PSD PS
  • 25. The only issue of intensive conflict among thePortuguese candidates is the one of prohibition of thesame-sex marriages by law.The left-right is an issue of intense conflict in Greece,while the Portuguese data confirm a lower barrierbetween left and right among the two partiesThe content of the L-R dimension is more determined byvalue-based polarities and less by economic ideologyCultural liberalism, Immigration (in economic trends) andthe “ War against terrorism” form patterns of dispersionbetween the candidates of PT and GR
  • 26. The Portuguese data reveal trends towards economic liberalism,while the Greek data reveals overall preferences in favour of stateinterventionismThe main factor which “contributes” to the dissensus between theGreek candidates on economic issues is mainly the internaldispersion between ND candidates ( “liberal right” versus the“popular right” )The ideological distance certainly contributes to understand thedifficulties of consensus in Greece. However, we should keep inmind that the main factor is the culture of majoritarianism that drivesthe Greek political elites to pursue office-seeking strategies for oneparty and not for a coalition government
  • 27. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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