Analysis of BJPs KarnatakaResultsNaresh Bharadwaj@nareshbhnaresh.bharadwaj@gmail.comProspects in the next Loksabha election
Analysis framework 3 elections – 2008, 2009 and 2013 Factors – Vote share in past elections Position in past elections...
Legend BJP INC JDS20092008
Legend BJP INC JDS2013 2013 BJP+
Not goodMandyaPos: 3, 3, 42013: 1.2%Average: 9.5%HassanPos: 3, 2, 42013: 3.4%Average: 13%KJP: 9.72%Bangalore RuralPos: 3, ...
Not goodChamarajanagarPos: 2, 2, 42013: 6.11%Average: 23.71%KJP: 22.35%ChitradurgaPos: 2, 1, 52013: 9.25%Average: 27.1%Bre...
FairKoppalaPos: 2, 1, 22013: 21.20%Average: 29.96%Breakaway: 22%BijapuraPos: 2, 1, 32013: 16.97%Average: 31.46%Gain: KJP, ...
FairBangalore CentralPos: 2, 1, 22013: 34.15%Average: 38.05%UttarakannadaPos: 2, 1, 22013: 21.59%Average: 32.32%HaveriPos:...
GoodBangalore NorthPos: 1, 1, 22013: 26.1%Average: 37.38%Gains: JD(S)ChikkodiPos: 2, 1, 12013: 37.63%Average: 39.73%BSRC: ...
GoodBangalore SouthPos: 1, 1, 22013: 35.99%Average: 42.49%UdupiChikkamagalorePos: 1, 1, 22013: 32.22%Average: 42.13%Belgau...
Summary Breakaways affecting BJP in 15 seats. Likely consolidation before LS polls. No major gains for INC or JD(S) St...
Thank you.
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Naresh bharadwaj

Presentation by Naresh Bharadwaj at Jijnasa Sangama on 1st June
Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: News & Politics      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Naresh bharadwaj

  • 1. Analysis of BJPs KarnatakaResultsNaresh Bharadwaj@nareshbhnaresh.bharadwaj@gmail.comProspects in the next Loksabha election
  • 2. Analysis framework 3 elections – 2008, 2009 and 2013 Factors – Vote share in past elections Position in past elections Possible consolidation Prospects – Not good Fair Good
  • 3. Legend BJP INC JDS20092008
  • 4. Legend BJP INC JDS2013 2013 BJP+
  • 5. Not goodMandyaPos: 3, 3, 42013: 1.2%Average: 9.5%HassanPos: 3, 2, 42013: 3.4%Average: 13%KJP: 9.72%Bangalore RuralPos: 3, 2, 32013: 18.14%Average: 26.19%Gain: INCChikkaballapuraPos: 3, 2, 32013: 20.15%Average: 27.05%KolarPos: 3, 2, 32013: 9.15%Average: 20.65%Gain: JD(S)
  • 6. Not goodChamarajanagarPos: 2, 2, 42013: 6.11%Average: 23.71%KJP: 22.35%ChitradurgaPos: 2, 1, 52013: 9.25%Average: 27.1%Breakaway: 21%TumkurPos: 2, 1, 42013: 13.16%Average: 26.68%KJP: 22.78%MysorePos: 2, 2, 32013: 22.43%Average: 30.9%BidarPos: 2, 2, 42013: 13.43%Average: 27.76%KJP: 26.8%
  • 7. FairKoppalaPos: 2, 1, 22013: 21.20%Average: 29.96%Breakaway: 22%BijapuraPos: 2, 1, 32013: 16.97%Average: 31.46%Gain: KJP, JD(S)GulbargaPos: 2, 2, 22013: 21.71%Average: 33.49%KJP: 17%DavangerePos: 1, 1, 42013: 11.94%Average: 34.77%KJP: 23%RaichurPos: 2, 1, 32013: 13.90%Average: 30.51%Breakaway: 19%
  • 8. FairBangalore CentralPos: 2, 1, 22013: 34.15%Average: 38.05%UttarakannadaPos: 2, 1, 22013: 21.59%Average: 32.32%HaveriPos: 1, 1, 32013: 15.84%Average: 35.61%Breakaway: 28%ShimogaPos: 1, 1, 42013: 12.93%Average: 36.04%KJP: 22%BellaryPos: 1, 1, 32013: 15.08%Average: 36.13%BSRC: 21.5%
  • 9. GoodBangalore NorthPos: 1, 1, 22013: 26.1%Average: 37.38%Gains: JD(S)ChikkodiPos: 2, 1, 12013: 37.63%Average: 39.73%BSRC: 6%DakshinakannadaPos: 2, 1, 22013: 40.92%Average: 44.33%BagalkotPos: 1, 1, 22013: 37.27%Average: 44.05%
  • 10. GoodBangalore SouthPos: 1, 1, 22013: 35.99%Average: 42.49%UdupiChikkamagalorePos: 1, 1, 22013: 32.22%Average: 42.13%BelgaumPos: 1, 1, 12013: 30.47%Average: 39.65%KJP: 10%DharwadPos: 1, 1, 22013: 28.14%Average: 42.66%KJP: 13%
  • 11. Summary Breakaways affecting BJP in 15 seats. Likely consolidation before LS polls. No major gains for INC or JD(S) Strong anti-UPA mood and other factorsmight play a major role
  • 12. Thank you.

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