Culture,
 Nature
 and
 Sustainable
 Tourism
 Development:
 
 
a
 space-­‐(me
 analysis
 on
 European...
New
 Tools
 for
 Planning
 Sustainable,
 Safe,
 Resilient
 and
 Sustainable
 Ci9es
 Naples
 March
...
Tourism
 is
 a
 place
 oriented
 ac?vity,
 where
 territories
 interact
 with
 each
 others.
 
 ...
Analysis
 of
 the
 importance
 of
 cultural
 and
 natural
 resources
 for
 regional
 tourism
 dema...
Tourism
 demand
 -­‐
 Nights
 spent
 at
 tourist
 accommoda9on
 establishments
 in
 2012
 (millions)...
Tourism
 demand
 -­‐
 Nights
 spent
 at
 tourist
 accommoda9on
 establishments
 
 (growth
 between
...
Tourism
 demand
 -­‐
 Nights
 spent
 at
 tourist
 accommoda9on
 establishments
 
 (growth
 between
...
Regional
 cultural
 assets
 -­‐
 number
 of
 sites
 classified
 as
 World
 Heritage
 by
 UNESCO
 ...
Regional
 natural
 resources
 -­‐
 percentage
 of
 the
 territory
 in
 Natura
 2000
 
 
Tourism
...
Regional
 natural
 resources
 and
 cultural
 assets
 
 
Tourism
 demand,
 culture
 and
 nature:
 d...
logNIT
 it
 =
 ß0
 +
 ß1
 logBEDS
 it
 +
 ß2
 HERIT
 it
 +
 ß3
 NAT
 it
 +
 uit
 
 
...
Moran
 I
 tests
 for
 spa?al
 autocorrela?on
 
 
1st
 and
 last
 years
 of
 observa9ons
 for
 ...
Local
 Indicators
 of
 Spa?al
 Autocorrela?on
 
 
cluster
 distribu9on
 based
 on
 the
 local
 G
...
Local
 Indicators
 of
 Spa?al
 Autocorrela?on
 
 
cluster
 distribu9on
 based
 on
 the
 local
 G
...
Local
 Indicators
 of
 Spa?al
 Autocorrela?on
 
 
cluster
 distribu9on
 based
 on
 the
 local
 G
...
Local
 Indicators
 of
 Spa?al
 Autocorrela?on
 
 
Bivariate
 analysis
 rela9ng
 tourism
 demand
 
...
Local
 Indicators
 of
 Spa?al
 Autocorrela?on
 
 
Bivariate
 analysis
 rela9ng
 tourism
 demand
 
...
logNIT
 it
 =
 ρWYit
 +
 ß0
 +
 ß1
 logBEDS
 it
 +
 ß2
 HERIT
 it
 +
 ß3
 NAT
 it
 +
...
Posi9ve
 overall
 spa?al
 effects
 (error
 variance
 +
 spa9al
 auto-­‐regressive
 coefficient)
 
Posi?ve...
Confirma?on
 of
 the
 poten?al
 of
 spa?al
 analysis
 for
 tourism
 studies.
 
 
Although
 this
 ...
The
 exploratory
 spa?al
 analysis
 clearly
 revealed
 the
 existence
 of
 spa?al
 effects
 for
 re...
Local
 resource
 management,
 promo?onal
 strategies,
 transport
 systems
 and
 accommoda?on
 
provision...
Thank you for your attention!
João
 Romão
 
 
 Culture,
 Nature
 and
 Sustainable
 Tourism
 Developmen...
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Culture, Nature and Sustainable Tourism Development: a space-time analysis on European regions

Despite the close relation between tourism and the territory, the application of spatial analysis methods in tourism is not abundant in the literature. The recent developments in the analysis of space-time models, the existence of geo-referenced information and the availability of suitable software tools create new opportunities for studying the role of space in tourism activities. An exploratory spatial data analysis is developed and a space-time panel model is computed in this work in order to analyse the relations between tourism demand and the existence of infrastructures, cultural assets and natural resources in European regions, Spatial effects have been clearly identified.
Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: Science      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Culture, Nature and Sustainable Tourism Development: a space-time analysis on European regions

  • 1. Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:     a  space-­‐(me  analysis  on  European  regions   João  Romão  University  of  Algarve       Towards  opera9onalising  UNESCO  Recommenda9ons  on  Historic  Urban  Landscape     Naples,  March  2–3,  2015
  • 2. New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions   Despite  the  close  rela9on  between  tourism  and  the  territory,  the  applica9on  of  spa9al  analysis   methods  in  tourism  is  not  abundant  in  the  literature.         The  recent  developments  in  the  analysis  of  space-­‐?me  models,  the  existence  of  geo-­‐referenced   informa9on  and  the  availability  of  suitable  soQware  tools  create  new  opportuni9es  for  studying   the  role  of  space  in  tourism  ac9vi9es.         An  exploratory    spa9al  data  analysis  is  developed  and  a  space-­‐9me  panel  model  is  computed     in  this  work  in  order  to  analyse  the  rela9ons  between  tourism  demand  and  the  existence  of   infrastructures,  cultural  assets  and  natural  resources  in  European  regions,         Spa?al  effects  have  been  clearly  iden?fied.     Abstract
  • 3. Tourism  is  a  place  oriented  ac?vity,  where  territories  interact  with  each  others.       Natural  resources  and  cultural  heritage  are  essen9al  for  the  sustainable  development  of  tourism.     The  crea9on  of  a  differen?ated  experience  in  each  tourism  des9na9on  depends  on  the  ability  to   integrate  these  local  and  specific  assets  into  the  tourism  supply:  unique  experiences  can  only  be   created  if  they  are  based  on  the  local  characteris9cs  of  the  territory,  once  they  are  not  possible  to   imitate  in  other  places.       This  exploita9on  of  local  resources  raises  the  ques9on  of  the  poten9al  nega9ve  impacts  on  the   territories  and  establishes  a  link  between  the  concepts  of  compe??veness  -­‐  the  ability  to   compete  in  global  markets  for  the  aUrac9on  of  tourists  -­‐  and  sustainability    -­‐  the  ability  to   preserve  local  resources  in  the  long  run.     “Environmental  paradox”:  the  produc9on  of  tourism  experiences  depends  on  the  exploita9on  of   local  natural  resources  and,  in  the  long  run,  it  also  depends  on  its  preserva9on.  The  same  can  be   applied  to  cultural  heritage.       In  the  last  years,  most  of  the  interna9onal  tourism  related  organiza9ons  (including  UNESCO)     have  proposed  orienta9ons  for  a  sustainable  process  tourism  development.   1.  Introduc?on   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 4. Analysis  of  the  importance  of  cultural  and  natural  resources  for  regional  tourism  demand.       Test  and  evalua9on  of  spa?al  effects  among  the  regions.     Presenta9on  of  overall  data  (252  NUTS  2  European  regions;  2003-­‐2012).     Exploratory  spa?al  data  analysis  (237  NUTS2  European  regions).     Space-­‐?me  panel  model.           All  the  NUTS  2  regions  from  Austria,  Belgium,  Bulgaria,  Cyprus,  Czech  Republic,  Denmark,  Estonia,   Finland,  France,  Germany,  Greece,  Hungary,  Italy,  Latvia,  Lithuania,  Luxemburg,  Malta,   Netherlands,  Poland,  Portugal,  Romania,  Slovakia,  Slovenia,  Spain  and  United  Kingdom.   Introduc?on   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 5. Tourism  demand  -­‐  Nights  spent  at  tourist  accommoda9on  establishments  in  2012  (millions)     Tourism  demand,  culture  and  nature:  data  and  variables   Importance  of  South  European  regions  (West  Mediterranean)   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 6. Tourism  demand  -­‐  Nights  spent  at  tourist  accommoda9on  establishments    (growth  between  2003  and  2012)     Tourism  demand,  culture  and  nature:  data  and  variables     Importance  of  Eastern  European  regions  (West  Mediterranean)   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 7. Tourism  demand  -­‐  Nights  spent  at  tourist  accommoda9on  establishments    (growth  between  2003  and  2012)     Tourism  demand,  culture  and  nature:  data  and  variables   Importance  of  urban  areas  (Paris,  Barcelona,  London,  Berlin)   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 8. Regional  cultural  assets  -­‐  number  of  sites  classified  as  World  Heritage  by  UNESCO   Tourism  demand,  culture  and  nature:  data  and  variables   Importance  of  South  European  regions  (West  Mediterranean)   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 9. Regional  natural  resources  -­‐  percentage  of  the  territory  in  Natura  2000     Tourism  demand,  culture  and  nature:  data  and  variables   Importance  of  South  European  regions   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 10. Regional  natural  resources  and  cultural  assets     Tourism  demand,  culture  and  nature:  data  and  variables   Importance  of  South  European  areas   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 11. logNIT  it  =  ß0  +  ß1  logBEDS  it  +  ß2  HERIT  it  +  ß3  NAT  it  +  uit     Parameters Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) Significance Intercept 10.1960 0.2089 48.8098 < 2.2e-16 0.001 LogBeds 0.4553 0.0190 24.0049 < 2.2e-16 0.001 NAT 0.0034 0.0010 3.4350 0.0006 0.001 HERIT 0.1063 0.0108 9.8615 < 2.2e-16 0.001 ! Despite  de  very  high  significance  of  all  the  parameters  es9mated,     the  rela9vely  low  score  obtained  for  the  R-­‐Squared  (0.26)     suggests  that  the  es9ma9ons  can  be  improved  introducing  spa?al  effects.   Posi?ve  rela?on  between  tourism  demand  and  all  the  independent  variables.   Panel  regression  without  spa?al  effects   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 12. Moran  I  tests  for  spa?al  autocorrela?on     1st  and  last  years  of  observa9ons  for  each  variable   The  results  obtained  reveal  the  existence  of  spa?al  correla?on  in  all  the  variables   (z-­‐scores  above  the  threshold  of  1.96,  for  5%  significance  level.     Territory:  Exploratory  Spa?al  Data  Analysis     New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 13. Local  Indicators  of  Spa?al  Autocorrela?on     cluster  distribu9on  based  on  the  local  G  sta9s9cs       Territory:  Exploratory  Spa?al  Data  Analysis     Cluster  of  high  values  (red)   in  Southwest  European  regions     Cluster  of  low  values  (blue)   in  Eastern  European  regions     Tourism  demand   (nights  spent  in  accommoda9on  establishments  in  2012)     New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 14. Local  Indicators  of  Spa?al  Autocorrela?on     cluster  distribu9on  based  on  the  local  G  sta9s9cs       Territory:  Exploratory  Spa?al  Data  Analysis     Cluster  of  high  values  (red)   in  Southwest  European  regions     Clusters  of  low  values  (blue)   in  Central  /  Northern  European  regions     Cultural  resources   (cultural  sites  classified  by  UNESCO  in  2012)     New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 15. Local  Indicators  of  Spa?al  Autocorrela?on     cluster  distribu9on  based  on  the  local  G  sta9s9cs       Territory:  Exploratory  Spa?al  Data  Analysis     Cluster  of  high  values  (red)   in  Southern  European  regions     Clusters  of  low  values  (blue)   in  Northern  European  regions     Natural  resources   (percentage  of  the  territory  in  Natura  2000  in  2011)     New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 16. Local  Indicators  of  Spa?al  Autocorrela?on     Bivariate  analysis  rela9ng  tourism  demand     with  each  of  the  independent  variables   Territory:  Exploratory  Spa?al  Data  Analysis     Clusters  of  high  values  for  cultural  assets   and  low  tourism  demand  (pink)   in  Eastern  European  regions     Clusters  of  high  values  for  both  (red)   in  South  Western  European  regions     Tourism  demand  and     cultural  heritage   “Irregular”  spa?al  paUerns.   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 17. Local  Indicators  of  Spa?al  Autocorrela?on     Bivariate  analysis  rela9ng  tourism  demand     with  each  of  the  independent  variables   Territory:  Exploratory  Spa?al  Data  Analysis     Clusters  of  high  values  for  natural  assets   and  low  tourism  demand  (pink)   in  Eastern  European  regions     Clusters  of  high  values  for  both  (red)   in  South  Western  European  regions     Tourism  demand  and     natural  resources   High  number  of  “spa?al  outliers”   (high  value  for  one  variable     and  low  for  the  other)   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 18. logNIT  it  =  ρWYit  +  ß0  +  ß1  logBEDS  it  +  ß2  HERIT  it  +  ß3  NAT  it  +  uit       uit  =  λWuit  +  εit           W  is  a  weights-­‐matrix,  defining  the  impacts  of  each  region  on  its  neighbors;   (neighborhood  defined  by  con9guity,  level  2);     ρ  is  the  spa9al  autoregressive  coefficient  (spa9al  effects  on  the  dependent  variable)     λ  is  the  spa9al  autocorrela9on  coefficient  (spa9al  effects  on  the  error  term)         AVer  specifying  the  necessary  tests,  a  model  with  both  types  of  spa?al  effects  has  been  computed.   Panel  regression  with  spa?al  effects   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 19. Posi9ve  overall  spa?al  effects  (error  variance  +  spa9al  auto-­‐regressive  coefficient)   Posi?ve  rela?on  between  tourism  demand  and  all  the  independent  variables,   but  not  significant    for  natural  resources.   Panel  regression  without  spa?al  effects   Parameters Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) Significance Intercept 14.7480 0.2738 53.8551 < 2.2e-16 0.001 LogBeds 0.3996 0.0229 17.4585 < 2.2e-16 0.001 NAT 0.0002 0.0012 0.1783 0.86 HERIT 0.0781 0.0110 7.0969 1.3e-12 0.001 Spatial auto-regressive coefficient -0.2478 0.0260 -3.2941 0.0009 0.001 Error variance (spatial) 0.6535 0.0386 16.947 < 2.2e-16 0.001 Error variance (non spatial) 16.4451 1.9384 8.484 < 2.2e-16 0.001 ! New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 20. Confirma?on  of  the  poten?al  of  spa?al  analysis  for  tourism  studies.     Although  this  kind  of  methodology  has  few  applica9ons  in  the  field  of  tourism,     the  results  show  the  existence  of  spa9al  paUerns  in  tourism  demand  and  its  determinants.           The  overall  data  presented  in  the  beginning  of  this  work  revealed  that     tourism  in  South  European  regions  –  where  natural  resources  play  a  decisive  role  –     is  s?ll  very  important  in  the  European  context.         Nevertheless,  this  informa9on  also  showed  that  urban  tourism  (at  least  in  some  major  ci9es)     and  the  Eastern  side  of  Europe  have  registered  higher  growth  rates  along  the  last  decade,   sugges9ng  a  shiV  in  travel  mo?va?ons  and  spa?al  paUerns.   Discussion   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 21. The  exploratory  spa?al  analysis  clearly  revealed  the  existence  of  spa?al  effects  for  regional   tourism  aUrac?veness  and  also  for  the  determinants  of  tourism  demand.     The  iden9fied  spa9al  effects  are,  in  general,  more  clear  in  the  South  European  regions.     Regional  aUrac?veness  is  related,  not  only  to  their  natural  and  cultural  resources,     but  also  to  the  resources  available  in  the  neighbour  regions   This  has  clear  implica9ons  in  terms  of  tourism  promo9on  and  infrastructure  planning     (transports,  accommoda9on,  etc).         The  spa9al  effects  iden9fied  in  the  space-­‐?me  model  reveal  the  existence  of:    -­‐  a  compe??ve  process  expressed  in  the  nega9ve  value  of  the  spa9al  autoregressive   coefficient,  showing  that  tourism  demand  in  one  region  can  have  nega9ve  consequences  in  the   con9guous  regions;    -­‐    posi?ve  impacts  of  unmodelled  effects  expressed  in  the  spa9al  error  variance  parameter   (almost  three  9mes  higher);      -­‐  overall  posi?ve  spa?al  effects.   Discussion   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 22. Local  resource  management,  promo?onal  strategies,  transport  systems  and  accommoda?on   provision  can  be  more  efficiently  planned  if  there  is  some  collabora?on  among  clusters  of   regions  with  similar  characteris?cs,  even  if  they  do  not  belong  to  the  same  country.             The  analyses  provides  sa9sfactory  results  for  the  South  European  regions.     For  the  North  European  regions,  other  kind  of  informa9on  related  to  natural  and  cultural  assets   can  provide  more  accurate  results  in  terms  of  spa9al  impacts,  although  there  is  not  enough   comparable  informa9on  at  interna9onal  level,  at  this  moment.   Discussion   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015   João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions
  • 23. Thank you for your attention! João  Romão      Culture,  Nature  and  Sustainable  Tourism  Development:  a  space-­‐9me  analysis  on  European  regions   New  Tools  for  Planning  Sustainable,  Safe,  Resilient  and  Sustainable  Ci9es  Naples  March  2015

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