NATIONAL GREENHOUSE
GAS INVENTORY REPORT
AND MITIGATION ANALYSIS
FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR
IN LEBANON
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report and Mitigation Analysis
for the Energy Sector in Lebanon
May 2015
This document should be referenced as:
MoE/UNDP/GEF (2015). National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report and Mitigation Analys...
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report and Mitigation Analysis for the Energy
Sector in Lebanon
Reference projects
Enabl...
Foreword
Ministry of Environment
Through the publications of Lebanon’s Initial and Second
National Communications to the U...
Foreword
United Nations Development Programme
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time;
it requires im...
Acknowledgements
The climate change team at the Ministry of Environment gratefully acknowledges all
individuals and organi...
Table of contents
Executive summary..........................................................................................
List of figures
Figure 1: Distribution of gas diesel oil by end-use category (2011)..........................................
List of tables
Table 1: Energy sector - stationary combustion subcategories..................................................
Acronyms
BAU Business as Usual
BCM Billion Cubic Meters
CAS Central Administration of Statistics
CC Combined Cycle...
IPP Independent Power Producer
ISIC International Standard Industrial Classification
kWh Kilowatt hour
LCEC Lebane...
Executive summary
In the framework of Lebanon’s Third National Communication (TNC) to the United Nations
Framework Convent...
Since electricity generation from public power plants (energy industries) is the main fuel consumer,
it is responsible for...
In order to further reduce emissions from the energy sector, the mitigation scenario that is proposed
includes the full im...
Figure iv: CO2
emissions under BAU and PP2010 scenarios
iv
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
CO2
emi...
)٢٠١١( ‫لبنان‬ ‫في‬ ‫الطاقة‬ ‫قطاع‬ ‫من‬ ‫الدفيئة‬ ‫الغازات‬ ‫انبعاثات‬ ‫مصادر‬ :‫أ‬ ‫الشكل‬
‫التنفيذي‬ ‫امللخص‬
‫ـراري‬‫ـ...
vi
‫الطاقة‬ ‫سياسة‬ ‫ورقة‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫جراء‬ ‫من‬ ‫الدفيئة‬ ‫الغازات‬ ‫انبعاثات‬ ‫في‬ ‫انخفاض‬ :‫ج‬ ‫الشكل‬
‫كاملعتاد‬ ‫العمل...
vii
‫احلرارية‬ ‫املعامل‬ ‫من‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫انتاج‬ ‫من‬ ‫الدفيئة‬ ‫الغازات‬ ‫انبعاثات‬ :‫ب‬ ‫الشكل‬
‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ٪19...
1
Part 1: Inventory
1.	Scope
As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Lebanon
is ...
2
Thermal capacity is divided into heavy fuel oil-fired steam-turbines at Zouk, Jiyeh and
Hrayche, and diesel-fired CCGT a...
3
supply of energy averaged 21.22 hours for Greater Beirut Area (GBA) and 15.79 hours for
the South with an average of 18 ...
Renewable energy
Given the current condition of electricity supply in Lebanon, the share of renewable energy is
slowly but...
5
Use of the sectoral approach and the reference approach
According to the IPCC guidelines, carbon dioxide emissions from ...
6
The sectoral approach is a bottom-up method, using detailed information on the fuel consumption
in each distinct sub-sec...
7
Table 3: CH4
and N2
O emission factors
CH4
emission factor (kg/TJ) N2
O emission factor (kg/TJ)
Natural gas Oil Biomass ...
8
Subcategory Data collection
Energy industries
Official contact was established with the Ministry of Energy
and Water, da...
9
[4]
Also referred to as residual fuel oil
[5]
Emissions of bitumen use are not reported under the energy sector inventor...
10
Source | MoEW, 2014
Based on the results of the surveys conducted (please refer to Table 4), Table 7 and Figures 1, 2 a...
11
Fuel type Consumption
Gas Diesel Oil (GDO)
Energy industries (EDL)
Fluctuating annual amount, depending on
production n...
Figure 1: Distribution of gas diesel oil by end-use category (2011)
Figure 2: Distribution of heavy fuel oil by end-use ca...
13
Source | MoEW, 2014
3.3.1. Energy industries - public electricity and heat production
The fuel consumption used under...
Source | MoEW, 2014
14
Fuel type
Quantity (1,000 tonnes)
2009 2010 2011
Gas diesel oil 302.70 304.31 361.89
Heavy fuel oil...
15
Commercial/institutional sectors
Fuel type
Quantity (1,000 tonnes)
End-use Assumptions
2009 2010 2011
Gas diesel
oil
31...
16
Table 12: Activity data for fuel consumption in agriculture/forestry/fisheries
Agriculture/forestry/fisheries
Fuel type...
17
Table 13: Gaps and needs for the calculation of GHG emissions from the energy sector identified in the INC and SNC
INC ...
18
* For the calculation of the emissions in terms of CO2
eq., the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CH4
and N2
O were
ado...
19
Energy industries
The energy sector relies on fossil fuel combustion for meeting the bulk of energy requirements
in Leb...
In terms of the share of each power plant to the reported emissions, it is estimated that the
Zahrani, Deir Aamar and Zouk...
21
electricity production. The plant was built in 1982 and is showing relatively low performances
due to a lack of spare-p...
Out of the 3,983.34 Gg CO2
eq. emitted from the manufacturing industries and construction and
commercial/institutional sec...
23
Table 16: Fuel consumption and GHG emissions of private generation for 2011
Gas diesel oil
consumed (tonnes)
GHG emissi...
3.5.2. Trends in Lebanon’s GHG emissions for the energy sector: 2000-2011
The GHG emissions of the energy sector increas...
25
Figure 12: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and GHG emission trends from the energy sector
Figure 13: Population gro...
Figure 15: Fuel import and GHG emissions trends of the energy sector
26
Figure 14: Trend of GHG emissions from energy indu...
27
Emission growth did not follow a stable trend, as it witnessed 2 detectable drops in 2007 and 2010
in addition to one s...
In Lebanon, the main gases emitted by the energy sector for the period 2000-2011 are SO2
,
which is mainly caused by the s...
29
Emissions (Gg)
NOx
CO NMVOCs SO2
2000 22.64 1.82 0.62 86.57
2001 26.90 2.06 0.72 103.27
2002 26.72 2.05 0.72 99.63
2003...
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report and Mitigation Analysis for th...
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  • 1. NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY REPORT AND MITIGATION ANALYSIS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR IN LEBANON
  • 2. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report and Mitigation Analysis for the Energy Sector in Lebanon May 2015
  • 3. This document should be referenced as: MoE/UNDP/GEF (2015). National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report and Mitigation Analysis for the Energy Sector in Lebanon. Beirut, Lebanon. Copyright © 2015 by the Ministry of Environment – United Nations Development Programme Reproduction is authorized provided the source is acknowledged and provided the reproduction is not sold. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is the UN’s global development network, advocating for change and connecting countries to knowledge, experience and resources to help people build a better life. We are on the ground in 166 countries, working with them on their own solutions to global and national development challenges. As they develop local capacity, they draw on the people of UNDP and our wide range of partners. For more information http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/ climatechange@moe.gov.lb The climate change project management team Vahakn Kabakian, Project Manager Lea Kai Aboujaoudé, Project Officer Yara Daou, Project Research Assistant Leila El Sayyed, Economist Mary Awad, Project Assistant Sara El Rayes, Administrative Assistant UNFCCC focal point Samar Malek, Acting Head of Service of Environmental Technology Disclaimer The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of its authors, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the Ministry of Environment or the United Nations Development Programme, who will not accept any liability derived from its use. This study can be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Please give credit where it is due.
  • 4. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report and Mitigation Analysis for the Energy Sector in Lebanon Reference projects Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Lebanon’s Third National Communication to the UNFCCC Lebanon’s First Biennial Update Report Executed by Ministry of Environment Funded by Global Environment Facility Implemented by United Nations Development Programme, Lebanon Main authors Lea Kai Aboujaoudé Karim Osseiran Lead reviewer Vahakn Kabakian External inventory reviewer Carlos Lopez Designers Nathalie Hamadeh Palig Haroutunian Printing Al Mostakbal Press
  • 5. Foreword Ministry of Environment Through the publications of Lebanon’s Initial and Second National Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change, the Ministry of Environment drew the large climate change picture in the country. The picture shed the light on a number of climate change matters: Lebanon’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, the sectoral share of national emissions, the socio-economic and environmental risks that the country faces as a result of climate change, and the potential actions that could and should be undertaken to fight climate change both in terms of mitigation and adaptation. Through these series of focused studies on various sectors (energy, forestry, waste, agriculture, industry, finance and transport), the Ministry of Environment is digging deeper into the analysis to identify strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities to climate friendly socio-economic development within each sector. The technical findings presented in this report (National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report and Mitigation Analysis for the Energy Sector) will support policy makers in making informed decisions. The findings will also help academics in orienting their research towards bridging research gaps. Finally, they will increase public awareness on climate change and its relation to each sector. In addition, the present technical work complements the strategic work of the National Climate Change Coordination Unit. This unit has been bringing together representatives from public, private and non-governmental institutions to merge efforts and promote comprehensive planning approach to optimize climate action. We are committed to be a part of the global fight against climate change. And one of the important tools to do so is improving our national knowledge on the matter and building our development and environmental policies on solid ground. Mohamad Al Mashnouk Minister of Environment
  • 6. Foreword United Nations Development Programme Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time; it requires immediate attention as it is already having discernible and worsening effects on communities everywhere, including Lebanon. The poorest and most vulnerable populations of the world are most likely to face the harshest impact and suffer disproportionately from the negative effects of climate change. The right mix of policies, skills, and incentives can influence behaviour and encourage investments in climate development-friendly activities. There are many things we can do now, with existing technologies and approaches, to address it. To facilitate this, UNDP enhances the capacity of countries to formulate, finance and implement national and sub-national plans that align climate management efforts with development goals and that promote synergies between the two. In Lebanon, projects on Climate Change were initiated in partnership with the Ministry of Environment from the early 2000s. UNDP has been a key partner in assisting Lebanon to assess its greenhouse gas emissions and duly reporting to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. With the generous support of numerous donors, projects have also analysed the impact of climate change on Lebanon’s environment and economy in order to prioritise interventions and integrate climate action into the national agenda. UNDP has also implemented interventions on the ground not only to mitigate the effects of climate change but also to protect local communities from its impact. This series of publications records the progress of several climate-related activities led by the Ministry of Environment which UNDP Lebanon has managed and supported during the past few years. These reports provide Lebanon with a technically sound solid basis for designing climate-related actions, and support the integration of climate change considerations into relevant social, economic and environmental policies. Ross Mountain UNDP Resident Representative
  • 7. Acknowledgements The climate change team at the Ministry of Environment gratefully acknowledges all individuals and organizations who provided various forms of support for the preparation and successful completion of the national greenhouse gas inventory of the energy sector in Lebanon. Particular mention has to be made to the Ministry of Energy and Water, the Central Administration of Statistics, the UNDP-CEDRO project and the Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation. Our utmost appreciation goes to Mr. Karim Osseiran whose role and involvement has significantly improved the preparation of this inventory and mitigation analysis. His knowledge and experience were essential for the acquisition of energy-related data and the elaboration and analysis of potential scenarios for emissions reduction. The climate change team would also like to thank Dr. Toni Issa and the IPTEC team for their collaboration in generating data on the end-use of fuel in Lebanon and highlighting the importance of the involvement and engagement of the private sector in developing environmentally sound policies. Finally, the Ministry of Environment would like to thank UNDP/GEF for funding the whole greenhouse gas inventory exercise.
  • 8. Table of contents Executive summary.............................................................................................................................................. ‫التنفيذي‬ ‫امللخص‬............................................................................................................................................................ Part 1: Inventory................................................................................................................................................... 1. Scope......................................................................................................................................................... 2. National circumstances......................................................................................................................... 3. Greenhouse gas emissions inventory of the energy sector............................................................ 3.1. Methodology................................................................................................................................. 3.2. Emission factors and other parameters................................................................................... 3.3. Activity data - stationary combustion..................................................................................... 3.3.1. Energy industries - public electricity and heat production.................................. 3.3.2. Manufacturing industries and construction.............................................................. 3.3.3. Transport............................................................................................................................ 3.3.4. Other sectors.................................................................................................................... 3.3.5. Feedstock and non-energy use of fuels..................................................................... 3.4. Gaps and constraints identified by INC and SNC............................................................... 3.5. Results and discussion................................................................................................................ 3.5.1. Energy sector GHG inventory for 2011.................................................................... 3.5.2 Trends in Lebanon’s GHG emissions for the energy sector: 2000-2011.......... 3.5.3. Trends in indirect GHGs and SO2 for the energy sector: 2000-2011................ Part 2: Mitigation analysis................................................................................................................................... 4. Scope........................................................................................................................................................... 5. Existing mitigation actions...................................................................................................................... 6. Planned mitigation actions..................................................................................................................... 7. Proposed mitigation option analysis................................................................................................... 7.1. Methodology................................................................................................................................ 7.2. Business as usual scenario........................................................................................................ 7.3. Energy Policy Paper 2010 scenario......................................................................................... 7.4. Comparison between BAU and Policy Paper scenarios...................................................... 8. Conclusion................................................................................................................................................ 9. References................................................................................................................................................ i v 1 1 1 4 4 6 7 13 13 14 14 16 16 18 18 24 27 30 30 30 38 42 42 44 48 51 54 54 55
  • 9. List of figures Figure 1: Distribution of gas diesel oil by end-use category (2011)......................................................... Figure 2: Distribution of heavy fuel oil by end-use category (2011)....................................................... Figure 3: Distribution of LPG by end-use category (2011)........................................................................ Figure 4: Contribution of energy emission sources to the sector’s total for 2011................................. Figure 5: Consumption of gas diesel oil and fuel oil per subcategory.................................................... Figure 6: Emission intensity of thermal power plants.................................................................................. Figure 7: Thermal power plants efficiency..................................................................................................... Figure 8: Consumption of gas diesel oil per end-use.................................................................................. Figure 9: Emission intensity in tonnes CO2 eq./GWh of energy industries versus private generation in Lebanon........................................................................................................................................... Figure 10: GHG emissions of energy industries versus private generation in Lebanon in 2011.............. Figure 11: Distribution of GHG emissions in 2011 per fuel type used in the residential sector............. Figure 12: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and GHG emission trends from the energy sector................................................................................................................................................... Figure 13: Population growth and GHG emission trends from the energy sector................................ Figure 14: Trend of GHG emissions from energy industries...................................................................... Figure 15: Fuel import and GHG emissions trends of the energy sector................................................ Figure 16: Indirect GHG emissions and SO2 emissions from the energy sector................................... Figure 17: Emission reduction potential from implementing scenario PP2010.................................... Figure 18:Variations between BAU and PP2010 scenarios........................................................................ Figure 19: CO2 emissions under BAU and PP2010 scenarios................................................................... Figure 20: Renewable energy percentage of avoided emissions between BAU and PP2010 scenarios............................................................................................................................................ 12 12 12 19 20 21 22 22 23 23 24 25 25 26 26 29 51 52 53 53
  • 10. List of tables Table 1: Energy sector - stationary combustion subcategories.................................................................. Table 2: Carbon content, net calorific value and other parameters by fuel type................................... Table 3: CH4 and N2 O emission factors............................................................................................................ Table 4: Methodology of data collection........................................................................................................ Table 5: Description of fuel used in Lebanon................................................................................................ Table 6: Quantities of fuel imported for the period 2005-2011................................................................ Table 7: Distribution of fuel consumption by end-use................................................................................ Table 8: Activity data for fuel consumption in energy industries.............................................................. Table 9: Activity data for fuel consumption in manufacturing industries and construction................ Table 10: Activity data for fuel consumption in the commercial and institutional sectors.................. Table 11: Activity data for fuel consumption in the residential sector..................................................... Table 12: Activity data for fuel consumption in agriculture/forestry/fisheries........................................ Table 13: Gaps and needs for the calculation of GHG emissions from the energy sector identified in the INC and SNC........................................................................................................................... Table 14: GHG emissions from energy by source category and gas for 2011....................................... Table 15: Electricity production and CO2 emissions per thermal power plant for 2011........................ Table 16: Fuel consumption and GHG emissions of private generation for 2011................................ Table 17: Lebanon’s emission factors from the electricity sector............................................................... Table 18: Emission factors of indirect greenhouse gases............................................................................ Table 19: Emission factors and other parameters of SO2 emissions......................................................... Table 20: Indirect GHG emissions and SO2 emissions from the energy sector..................................... Table 21: Mitigation actions in the energy sector......................................................................................... Table 22: Summary of mitigation activities for the period 2005-2012.................................................... Table 23: Installed PV systems.......................................................................................................................... Table 24: Installed solar water heating............................................................................................................ Table 25: LED street lighting.............................................................................................................................. Table 26: Microwind and microwind-PV....................................................................................................... Table 27: Replacement of CFL.......................................................................................................................... Table 28: Energy saving measures implemented self-financed by the private sector........................... Table 29: Assumptions for BAU scenario....................................................................................................... Table 30: CO2 emissions under BAU scenario.............................................................................................. Table 31: Updated schedule of Energy Policy Paper 2010......................................................................... Table 32: Assumptions for PP2010 scenario.................................................................................................. 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 21 23 27 28 28 29 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 46 47 48 49
  • 11. Acronyms BAU Business as Usual BCM Billion Cubic Meters CAS Central Administration of Statistics CC Combined Cycle CFL Compact Fluorescent Lamps CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine CCPP Combined Cycle Power Plants CEDRO Country Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Demonstration Project for the Recovery of Lebanon CF Capacity Factor CoM Council of Ministers DO Diesel Oil EDL Electricité Du Liban EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone ENS Energy not Supplied EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction FSRU Floating Storage and Regasification Unit GBA Greater Beirut Area GDO Gas Diesel Oil GDP Gross Domestic Product Gg Gigagram or 1,000 tonnes GHG Greenhouse Gas GoL Government of Lebanon GWh Gigawatt hour GWP Global Warming Potential HFO Heavy Fuel Oil HPS High Pressure Sodium HRSG Heat Recovery Steam Generator IATA International Air Transport Association ICE Internal Combustion Engine INC Initial National Communication IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  • 12. IPP Independent Power Producer ISIC International Standard Industrial Classification kWh Kilowatt hour LCEC Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation LED Light Emitting Diode LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas LRF Lebanon Recovery Fund MMBTU Million British Thermal Units MoEW Ministry of Energy and Water MW Megawatt MWh Megawatt hour NEEAP National Energy Efficiency Action Plan NEEREA National Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Action NG Natural Gas NMVOCs Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds NPO Net Power Output OCGT Open Cycle Gas Turbine PER Public Expenditure Report PG Private Generation PP2010 Policy Paper 2010 PPA Power Purchase Agreement PV Photovoltaic SC Simple Cycle SFOC Specific Fuel Oil Consumption SNC Second National Communication SWH Solar Water Heater TJ Terajoule TNC Third National Communication UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VOLL Value of Lost Load
  • 13. Executive summary In the framework of Lebanon’s Third National Communication (TNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions resulting from the energy sector in Lebanon were estimated from 1994 to 2011. Calculations were made using the Revised 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and the Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.The GHG emissions from the energy sector, namely carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4 ), and nitrous oxide (N2 O), along with the indirect GHGs (carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx ), sulphur dioxide (SO2 ) and Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs)) have been calculated in order to be reported to the UNFCCC. In addition, this report provides an overview of most of the mitigation activities that have been initiated and implemented during the period 2005-2012 and proposes new mitigation scenarios to further reduce GHG emissions from the energy sector. Inventory In 2011, total GHG emissions from the energy sector in Lebanon amounted to 12,471 Gg (Gigagram or 1,000 tonnes) of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gg CO2 eq.) (12.4 million tonnes CO2 eq.). Energy is mainly responsible for carbon dioxide emissions, while it also contributes to methane and nitrous oxide emissions and other air pollutants such as CO, NOx and SO2 . In 2011, 99.63% of the emissions from the energy sector were CO2 , 0.12% CH4 and 0.25% N2 O. The contribution of each source to the total of the sector is presented in Figure i. i Figure i: Contribution of energy emission sources to the sector’s total for 2011 Energy industries 63% Manufacturing industries and construction 22% Commercial institutional 10% Residential 4% Agriculture/forestry/ fisheries 1%
  • 14. Since electricity generation from public power plants (energy industries) is the main fuel consumer, it is responsible for 63% of the sector’s emissions followed by manufacturing industries (22%), and commercial/institutional (10%). Indeed, public electricity generation is the largest contributor to the sector’s emissions due to the fact that more than 88% of imported fuel oil and 53% of imported gas diesel oil are used in thermal power plants for public electricity generation. It is estimated that the Zahrani, Deir Aamar and Zouk plants are the highest emitters of greenhouse gases, given that they are the biggest power plants in terms of capacity, electricity generation and fuel consumption. However the Hrayche and Tyre power plants are considered as the most polluting installations, with the lowest operation efficiency and the highest emission intensity, generating around 1,000 tonnes CO2 eq. per GWh (Gigawatt hour) of electricity produced (Figure ii). In 2011, private electricity generation emitted 2,370 Gg CO2 eq. accounting for 19% of total GHG emissions from energy activities. It is estimated that on average generating electricity from private generators emits less than generating electricity from public thermal power plants. Indeed, while public power plants emit on average 847 tonnes CO2 eq. per GWh produced, private generators emit only 713 tonnes CO2 eq. In addition, in absolute terms, public energy generation produces more GHG emissions than private generation since it produces more electricity and consumes more fossil fuel. Mitigation Several projects in Lebanon aim at increasing energy production while decreasing GHG emissions. These projects, implemented by the Ministry of Energy and Water, the Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation, the CEDRO project and other private entities, have induced an estimated 262,712 tonnes CO2 eq. abatement. If these activities are well sustained, it is expected to have a minimum of 119,184 tonnes CO2 eq. per year. This does not take into account the implementation of other additional planned activities across the sector. ii Figure ii: Emission intensity of thermal power plants 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Zouk Jiyeh Hrayche Deir Aamar Zahrani Baalbeck Tyre TonnesCO2eq./Gwh
  • 15. In order to further reduce emissions from the energy sector, the mitigation scenario that is proposed includes the full implementation of the Energy Policy Paper (PP2010) of the Ministry of Energy and Water (MoEW) updated as per the actual situation at the end of 2014. The mitigation scenario assumes that the existing plants are rehabilitated and upgraded, and large investments are made to increase the generation capacity to meet demand within 2018. The private generation and purchasing gradually decrease when production reaches the demand level and natural gas will become available by the end of 2018. The implementation of the Energy Policy Paper inflicts a cumulative decrease of 83 million tonnes CO2 eq. from 2009 to 2030, with an average annual decrease of 3.8 million tonnes Gg CO2 eq. per year as compared to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. Starting 2019, a noticeable drop of 38% in emissions is observed, mainly due to the switch of most power plants from heavy fuel oil and diesel oil use to natural gas.The introduction of additional production capacity by Independent Power Producers (IPPs) contributes to reducing even further CO2 emissions in 2024, 2027 and 2029. Figure iii: Emission reduction potential from implementing mitigation scenario PP2010 iii 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 CO2 emissions(tCO2 eq.) BAU total PP2010
  • 16. Figure iv: CO2 emissions under BAU and PP2010 scenarios iv 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 CO2 emissions(tonnesCO2 eq.) BAU PP2010 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
  • 17. )٢٠١١( ‫لبنان‬ ‫في‬ ‫الطاقة‬ ‫قطاع‬ ‫من‬ ‫الدفيئة‬ ‫الغازات‬ ‫انبعاثات‬ ‫مصادر‬ :‫أ‬ ‫الشكل‬ ‫التنفيذي‬ ‫امللخص‬ ‫ـراري‬‫ـ‬‫احل‬ ‫ـاس‬‫ـ‬‫االحتب‬ ‫ـاز‬‫ـ‬‫غ‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫تقدي‬ ‫مت‬ ،‫ـاخ‬‫ـ‬‫املن‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫تغي‬ ‫ـأن‬‫ـ‬‫بش‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫اإلطاري‬ ‫ـدة‬‫ـ‬‫املتح‬ ‫األمم‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫اتفاقي‬ ‫ـى‬‫ـ‬‫إل‬ ‫ـان‬‫ـ‬‫للبن‬ ‫ـث‬‫ـ‬‫الثال‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫الوطن‬ ‫ـاغ‬‫ـ‬‫الب‬ ‫ـار‬‫ـ‬‫إط‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫(للهيئ‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫التوجيهي‬ ‫ـادئ‬‫ـ‬‫املب‬ ‫ـتخدام‬‫ـ‬‫باس‬ ‫ـابية‬‫ـ‬‫احلس‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫العملي‬ ‫ـت‬‫ـ‬‫ومت‬ .2011-1994 ‫ـرة‬‫ـ‬‫الفت‬ ‫ـال‬‫ـ‬‫خ‬ ‫ـان‬‫ـ‬‫لبن‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫قط‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الناجم‬ )‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدفيئ‬ ‫ـازات‬‫ـ‬‫(الغ‬ ‫وإدارة‬ ‫ـدة‬‫ـ‬‫اجلي‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫املمارس‬ ‫ـادات‬‫ـ‬‫وإرش‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدفيئ‬ ‫ـازات‬‫ـ‬‫للغ‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الوطني‬ ‫ـرد‬‫ـ‬‫اجل‬ ‫ـم‬‫ـ‬‫قوائ‬ ‫ـداد‬‫ـ‬‫إلع‬ 1996 ‫ـام‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫املنقح‬ )‫ـاخ‬‫ـ‬‫املن‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫بتغي‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫املعني‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدولي‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫احلكومي‬ ،‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫قط‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الناجم‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدفيئ‬ ‫ـازات‬‫ـ‬‫الغ‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـاب‬‫ـ‬‫احتس‬ ‫مت‬ ‫ـا‬‫ـ‬‫كم‬ .)2000( ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدفيئ‬ ‫ـازات‬‫ـ‬‫لغ‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الوطني‬ ‫ـرد‬‫ـ‬‫اجل‬ ‫ـم‬‫ـ‬‫قوائ‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫التيق‬ ‫ـدم‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـاالت‬‫ـ‬‫ح‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫وأكاس‬ ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫الكرب‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫(أول‬ ‫ـرة‬‫ـ‬‫املباش‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫غي‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدفيئ‬ ‫ـازات‬‫ـ‬‫الغ‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـى‬‫ـ‬‫إل‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫إضاف‬ ،‫ـك‬‫ـ‬‫النيتري‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫وأكس‬ ‫ـان‬‫ـ‬‫وامليث‬ ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫الكرب‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ثان‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫وه‬ ‫ـأن‬‫ـ‬‫بش‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫اإلطاري‬ ‫ـدة‬‫ـ‬‫املتح‬ ‫األمم‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫اتفاقي‬ ‫ـى‬‫ـ‬‫إل‬ ‫ـا‬‫ـ‬‫به‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫التقاري‬ ‫ـع‬‫ـ‬‫رف‬ ‫ـدف‬‫ـ‬‫به‬ )‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫ميثاني‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫غي‬ ‫ـرة‬‫ـ‬‫متطاي‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫عضوي‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫ومركب‬ ‫ـت‬‫ـ‬‫الكبري‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫وثان‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫النتروج‬ ،2012-2005 ‫ـرة‬‫ـ‬‫الفت‬ ‫ـال‬‫ـ‬‫خ‬ ‫ـذت‬‫ـ‬‫ونف‬ ‫ـتهلت‬‫ـ‬‫اس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫الت‬ ‫ـف‬‫ـ‬‫التخفي‬ ‫ـطة‬‫ـ‬‫أنش‬ ‫ـم‬‫ـ‬‫معظ‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫عام‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫حمل‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫التقري‬ ‫ـذا‬‫ـ‬‫ه‬ ‫ـدم‬‫ـ‬‫يق‬ ،‫ـك‬‫ـ‬‫ذل‬ ‫ـى‬‫ـ‬‫إل‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫وباإلضاف‬ .‫ـاخ‬‫ـ‬‫املن‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫تغي‬ .‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫قط‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدفيئ‬ ‫ـازات‬‫ـ‬‫الغ‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـف‬‫ـ‬‫التخفي‬ ‫ـادة‬‫ـ‬‫لزي‬ ‫ـدة‬‫ـ‬‫جدي‬ ‫ـيناريوهات‬‫ـ‬‫س‬ ‫ـرح‬‫ـ‬‫يقت‬ ‫ـا‬‫ـ‬‫كم‬ ‫الدفيئة‬ ‫الغازات‬ ‫انبعاثات‬ ‫جردة‬ ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫ملي‬ ١٢,٤( ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫الكرب‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ثان‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـرام‬‫ـ‬‫جيغاغ‬ 12،471 ‫ـان‬‫ـ‬‫لبن‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫قط‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدفيئ‬ ‫ـازات‬‫ـ‬‫الغ‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـوع‬‫ـ‬‫مجم‬ ‫ـغ‬‫ـ‬‫بل‬ ،2011 ‫ـام‬‫ـ‬‫الع‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ %0,25 ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫النيتروج‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ،%٩٩,٦٣ ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫الكرب‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ثان‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ :‫ـت‬‫ـ‬‫فكان‬ ‫ـاهمتها‬‫ـ‬‫ومس‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدفيئ‬ ‫ـازات‬‫ـ‬‫الغ‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـادر‬‫ـ‬‫مص‬ ‫ـا‬‫ـ‬‫أم‬ .)‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ط‬ .)‫أ‬ ‫ـكل‬‫ـ‬‫(الش‬ % 0,12 ‫ـان‬‫ـ‬‫امليث‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫وانبعاث‬ v ‫الطاقــة‬ ‫قطــاع‬ ‫انبعاثــات‬ ‫إجمالــي‬ ‫مــن‬ ٪63 ‫لبنــان‬ ‫لكهربــاء‬ ‫التابعــة‬ ‫احلراريــة‬ ‫احملطــات‬ ‫مــن‬ ‫الكهربــاء‬ ‫توليــد‬ ‫مــن‬ ‫الناجتــة‬ ‫االنبعاثــات‬ ‫لت‬ّ‫ك‬‫شــ‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫إجمال‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ٪10 ‫ـاري‬‫ـ‬‫التج‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫القط‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫وم‬ ٪22 ‫ـكل‬‫ـ‬‫تش‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫الصناع‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫القط‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـتهالك‬‫ـ‬‫واس‬ ‫ـاج‬‫ـ‬‫انت‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الناجت‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫االنبعاث‬ ‫ـت‬‫ـ‬‫كان‬ ‫ـا‬‫ـ‬‫فيم‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ٪53 ‫و‬ ‫ـل‬‫ـ‬‫أوي‬ ‫ـول‬‫ـ‬‫الفي‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ٪88 ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫أكث‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ـث‬‫ـ‬‫حي‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫القط‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـاهم‬‫ـ‬‫مس‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫أكب‬ ‫ـو‬‫ـ‬‫ه‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـد‬‫ـ‬‫تولي‬ ‫ـإن‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ .‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫قط‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ .‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـد‬‫ـ‬‫لتولي‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫احلراري‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫احملط‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـتخدم‬‫ـ‬‫يس‬ ‫ـزل‬‫ـ‬‫الدي‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫محط‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫أكب‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫تعتب‬ ‫ـا‬‫ـ‬‫انه‬ ‫ـث‬‫ـ‬‫حي‬ ،‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدفيئ‬ ‫ـازات‬‫ـ‬‫غ‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـبة‬‫ـ‬‫نس‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫اكب‬ ‫ـكل‬‫ـ‬‫تش‬ ‫ـزوق‬‫ـ‬‫وال‬ ‫ـار‬‫ـ‬‫عم‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫ودي‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫الزهران‬ ‫ـل‬‫ـ‬‫معام‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ـى‬‫ـ‬‫إل‬ ‫ـج‬‫ـ‬‫النتائ‬ ‫ـير‬‫ـ‬‫وتش‬ ‫تشــغيل‬ ‫بكفــاءة‬ ‫يتميــزان‬ ‫انهمــا‬ ‫حيــث‬ ‫للبيئــة‬ ً‫ا‬‫تلويثــ‬ ‫االكثــر‬ ‫همــا‬ ‫وصــور‬ ‫الهريشــة‬ ‫معملــي‬ ‫أن‬ ‫الــى‬ ‫تشــير‬ ‫كمــا‬ ،‫لبنــان‬ ‫فــي‬ ‫الكهربــاء‬ ‫توليــد‬ .‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫املنتج‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـاعة‬‫ـ‬‫س‬ ‫ـاوات‬‫ـ‬‫جيج‬ ‫ـكل‬‫ـ‬‫ل‬ ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫الكرب‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ثان‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ط‬ 1،000 ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫حوال‬ ‫ـا‬‫ـ‬‫منهم‬ ‫ـث‬‫ـ‬‫ينبع‬ ‫ـه‬‫ـ‬‫ان‬ ‫ـث‬‫ـ‬‫حي‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫منخفض‬ ‫اﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎء‬ ‫اﻧﺘﺎج‬ ‫اﳊﺮارﻳﺔ‬ ٪٦٣ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻬﻼك‬ ‫واﳊﺮاﺟﺔ‬ ‫واﻟﺼﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﺰراﻋﺔ‬ ٪١‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻬﻼك‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺠﺎرﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎت‬ ٪١٠ ‫اﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫واﺳﺘﻬﻼك‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎج‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ٪٢٢ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻬﻼك‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻜﻨﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻄﺎع‬ ٪٤
  • 18. vi ‫الطاقة‬ ‫سياسة‬ ‫ورقة‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫جراء‬ ‫من‬ ‫الدفيئة‬ ‫الغازات‬ ‫انبعاثات‬ ‫في‬ ‫انخفاض‬ :‫ج‬ ‫الشكل‬ ‫كاملعتاد‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫سيناريو‬ ‫مع‬ ‫باملقارنة‬ ‫الطاقة‬ ‫سياسة‬ ‫ورقة‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫جراء‬ ‫من‬ ‫الدفيئة‬ ‫الغازات‬ ‫انبعاثات‬ :‫د‬ ‫الشكل‬ ‫ﺻﻮر‬ ‫ﺑﻌﻠﺒﻚ‬ ‫اﻟﺰﻫﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎر‬ ‫دﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺣﺮﻳﺸﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ّ‫ﳉ‬‫ا‬ ‫اﻟﺰوق‬ ١،٢٠٠ ١،٠٠٠ ٨٠٠ ٦٠٠ ٤٠٠ ٢٠٠ ٠ ٢٥،٠٠٠،٠٠٠ ٢٠،٠٠٠،٠٠٠ ١٥،٠٠٠،٠٠٠ ١٠،٠٠٠،٠٠٠ ٥،٠٠٠،٠٠٠ ٠ ‫اﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ‬ ‫ورﻗﺔ‬‫ﻛﺎﳌﻌﺘﺎد‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎرﻳﻮ‬
  • 19. vii ‫احلرارية‬ ‫املعامل‬ ‫من‬ ‫كل‬ ‫في‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫انتاج‬ ‫من‬ ‫الدفيئة‬ ‫الغازات‬ ‫انبعاثات‬ :‫ب‬ ‫الشكل‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ٪19 ‫ـكل‬‫ـ‬‫يش‬ ‫ـو‬‫ـ‬‫وه‬ ،‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫الكرب‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ثان‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ط‬ ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫ملي‬ ٢،٣٧٠ ‫ـاث‬‫ـ‬‫بانبع‬ ‫ـبب‬‫ـ‬‫تس‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫اخلاص‬ ‫ـدات‬‫ـ‬‫املول‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـاج‬‫ـ‬‫انت‬ ،2011 ‫ـام‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـل‬‫ـ‬‫أق‬ ‫ـبة‬‫ـ‬‫بنس‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـبب‬‫ـ‬‫يس‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫اخلاص‬ ‫ـدات‬‫ـ‬‫املول‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـد‬‫ـ‬‫تولي‬ ‫ـه‬‫ـ‬‫أن‬ ‫ـى‬‫ـ‬‫عل‬ ‫ـار‬‫ـ‬‫ويش‬ .‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫قط‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الدفيئ‬ ‫ـازات‬‫ـ‬‫غ‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫إجمال‬ ‫ـا‬‫ـ‬‫جيج‬ ‫كل‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫الكرب‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ثان‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ط‬ 847 ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫احلراري‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫احملط‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـث‬‫ـ‬‫تنبع‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ح‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ .‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫احلراري‬ ‫ـل‬‫ـ‬‫املعام‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـد‬‫ـ‬‫بتولي‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫مقارن‬ .‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫الكرب‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ثان‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ط‬ 713 ‫ـط‬‫ـ‬‫فق‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫اخلاص‬ ‫ـدات‬‫ـ‬‫املول‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـث‬‫ـ‬‫تنبع‬ ،‫ـاعة‬‫ـ‬‫س‬ ‫واط‬ ‫االنبعاثات‬ ‫تخفيف‬ ‫قبــل‬ ‫مــن‬ ‫املشــاريع‬ ‫هــذه‬ ‫وتنفــذ‬ .‫الدفيئــة‬ ‫الغــازات‬ ‫انبعاثــات‬ ‫وتقليــص‬ ‫الطاقــة‬ ‫انتــاج‬ ‫زيــادة‬ ‫إلــى‬ ‫لبنــان‬ ‫فــي‬ ‫املشــاريع‬ ‫مــن‬ ‫العديــد‬ ‫وتهــدف‬ ‫ـو‬‫ـ‬‫نح‬ ‫ـض‬‫ـ‬‫تخفي‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـاريع‬‫ـ‬‫املش‬ ‫ـذه‬‫ـ‬‫ه‬ ‫ـاهمت‬‫ـ‬‫س‬ ‫ـد‬‫ـ‬‫ق‬ .‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫خاص‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫وجه‬ CEDRO ‫ـروع‬‫ـ‬‫مش‬ ،‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـظ‬‫ـ‬‫حلف‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫اللبنان‬ ‫ـز‬‫ـ‬‫املرك‬ ،‫ـاه‬‫ـ‬‫واملي‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫وزارة‬ ‫ثانــي‬ ‫مــن‬ ‫طــن‬ ١١٩،١٨٤ ‫تخفيــض‬ ‫فــي‬ ‫تســاهم‬ ‫أن‬ ‫املتوقــع‬ ‫مــن‬ ،‫األنشــطة‬ ‫هــذه‬ ‫اســتمرت‬ ‫وإذا‬ ‫الكربــون‬ ‫أكســيد‬ ‫ثانــي‬ ‫مــن‬ ‫طــن‬ ٢٦٢،٧١٢ .َ‫ا‬‫ســنوي‬ ‫الكربــون‬ ‫أكســيد‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫قط‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫سياس‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫لورق‬ ‫ـل‬‫ـ‬‫الكام‬ ‫ـذ‬‫ـ‬‫التنفي‬ ‫ـمل‬‫ـ‬‫يش‬ ‫ـيناريو‬‫ـ‬‫س‬ ‫ـراح‬‫ـ‬‫اقت‬ ‫ـم‬‫ـ‬‫يت‬ ،‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـاع‬‫ـ‬‫قط‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الناجت‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫االنبعاث‬ ‫ـض‬‫ـ‬‫خف‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫مواصل‬ ‫ـل‬‫ـ‬‫أج‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫احلراريــة‬ ‫املعامــل‬ ‫وحتســن‬ ‫تأهيــل‬ ‫إعــادة‬ ‫علــى‬ ‫الســيناريو‬ ‫يبنــي‬ ‫وقــد‬ .٢٠١٤ ‫فــي‬ ‫احملدثــة‬ ،‫وامليــاه‬ ‫الطاقــة‬ ‫وزارة‬ ‫لــدى‬ )٢٠١٠( ‫لبنــان‬ ‫فــي‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫اخلاص‬ ‫ـدات‬‫ـ‬‫املول‬ ‫ـال‬‫ـ‬‫خ‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـاج‬‫ـ‬‫انت‬ .٢٠١٨ ‫ـام‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـول‬‫ـ‬‫بحل‬ ‫ـب‬‫ـ‬‫الطل‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫وتلبي‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـاج‬‫ـ‬‫انت‬ ‫ـادة‬‫ـ‬‫لزي‬ ‫ـرة‬‫ـ‬‫كبي‬ ‫ـتثمارات‬‫ـ‬‫اس‬ ‫ـذ‬‫ـ‬‫وتنفي‬ ،‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫القائم‬ .٢٠١٨ ‫ـام‬‫ـ‬‫ع‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫نهاي‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـتعمال‬‫ـ‬‫لالس‬ ‫ـاح‬‫ـ‬‫مت‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫الطبيع‬ ‫ـاز‬‫ـ‬‫والغ‬ ‫ـح‬‫ـ‬‫ويصب‬ ‫ـا‬‫ـ‬‫تدريجي‬ ‫ـض‬‫ـ‬‫ينخف‬ ‫ـر‬‫ـ‬‫ومص‬ ‫ـوريا‬‫ـ‬‫س‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـراء‬‫ـ‬‫وش‬ ٢٠٠٩ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـدة‬‫ـ‬‫املمت‬ ‫ـرة‬‫ـ‬‫الفت‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫الكرب‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ثان‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫ط‬ ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫ملي‬ 83 ‫ـض‬‫ـ‬‫بتخفي‬ )PP٢٠١٠(‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫الطاق‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫سياس‬ ‫ـة‬‫ـ‬‫ورق‬ ‫ـذ‬‫ـ‬‫تنفي‬ ‫ـاهم‬‫ـ‬‫يس‬ ‫ـوف‬‫ـ‬‫س‬ ‫االنبعاثــات‬ ‫تخفيــض‬ ‫فــي‬ ٪٣٨ ‫أن‬ ‫امللحــوظ‬ ‫مــن‬ . )BAU(‫كاملعتــاد‬ ‫العمــل‬ ‫ســيناريو‬ ‫مــع‬ ‫باملقارنــة‬ ‫ســنويا‬ ‫طــن‬ ‫مليــون‬ ٣,٨ ‫أي‬ ،٢٠٣٠ ‫الــى‬ ‫ـاج‬‫ـ‬‫انت‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ـظ‬‫ـ‬‫يلح‬ ‫ـا‬‫ـ‬‫كم‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫الطبيع‬ ‫ـاز‬‫ـ‬‫الغ‬ ‫ـى‬‫ـ‬‫إل‬ ‫ـل‬‫ـ‬‫اوي‬ ‫ـول‬‫ـ‬‫الفي‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ‫ـد‬‫ـ‬‫تولي‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫محط‬ ‫ـم‬‫ـ‬‫معظ‬ ‫ـل‬‫ـ‬‫حتوي‬ ‫ـراء‬‫ـ‬‫ج‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـك‬‫ـ‬‫وذل‬ ،٢٠١٩ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـداء‬‫ـ‬‫ابت‬ ‫ـع‬‫ـ‬‫تق‬ .٢٠٢٩ ‫و‬ ٢٠٢٧ ،٢٠٢٤ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـون‬‫ـ‬‫الكرب‬ ‫ـيد‬‫ـ‬‫أكس‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ثان‬ ‫ـات‬‫ـ‬‫انبعاث‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـد‬‫ـ‬‫احل‬ ‫ـادة‬‫ـ‬‫زي‬ ‫ـي‬‫ـ‬‫ف‬ ‫ـاهم‬‫ـ‬‫يس‬ ‫ـتقلني‬‫ـ‬‫مس‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫منتج‬ ‫ـال‬‫ـ‬‫خ‬ ‫ـن‬‫ـ‬‫م‬ ‫ـاء‬‫ـ‬‫الكهرب‬ ٢٥،٠٠٠،٠٠٠ ٢٠،٠٠٠،٠٠٠ ١٥،٠٠٠،٠٠٠ ١٠،٠٠٠،٠٠٠ ٥،٠٠٠،٠٠٠ ٠ ‫اﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ‬ ‫ورﻗﺔ‬‫ﻛﺎﳌﻌﺘﺎد‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎرﻳﻮ‬
  • 20. 1 Part 1: Inventory 1. Scope As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Lebanon is recommended to report its emissions on a periodic basis, according to decisions 17/CP.8, 2/CP.17 and articles 4 and 12 of the Convention.According to the Second National Communication (MoE/UNDP/GEF, 2011), the energy sector is the main contributor of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in Lebanon, with a share of 54% of national emissions in the year 2000. This report presents the inventory of the greenhouse emissions of the energy sector in Lebanon for the year 2011 with a trend analysis of the sector’s emissions for the period 2000-2011. It includes direct greenhouse gases i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4 ) and nitrous oxide (N2 O) as well as indirect GHGs such as nitrogen oxide (NOx ), carbon monoxide (CO), Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs) and sulphur dioxide (SO2 ). 2. National circumstances The Lebanese electricity sector is run by the Electricité du Liban (EDL), an autonomous state- owned (and therefore, a public monopoly) power utility that generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to all Lebanese territories. In 2011, most of the electricity was generated through 7 major thermal power plants and 3.5–4.5% through hydropower plants. When circumstances permit, direct power was purchased from Syria and Egypt (around 7 to 11%). Almost all of Lebanon’s primary energy requirements are imported, since the country does not have any indigenous energy sources with the exception of a small share of hydropower. Out of the 7 thermal power plants in Lebanon, 3 operate on Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and 4 on gas diesel oil. The Deir Aamar and Zahrani power plants use the Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) and can therefore operate on Natural Gas (NG) once available. Currently, there is no supply of natural gas to Lebanon although a gas pipeline has been connected and a natural gas station has been constructed at the Tripoli installations. Natural gas was only imported for one year during 2010. Recent studies and surveys conducted in the deep offshore Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) have shown very promising seismic conditions for hydrocarbon deposits, mainly natural gas with some oil. As a result of that, Lebanon had already started the development phase for the exploration and production era which is expected to have a positive economic impact on the country. Thermal generation Although available capacity reached 2,670 MW (Megawatts), actual availability of electricity has varied from as low as 1,500 MW to a maximum of 2,000 MW due to several shortcomings. In the case of the thermal plants, these include plant failures and rehabilitation work, fuel supply and interruption of imported electricity from both Syria and Egypt. In the case of hydropower, rainfall variations, and subsequently water levels variations as well (Kabakian et al., 2015). In addition, the transmission and distribution networks face 3 types of problems: technical losses in the range of 15%, non-technical losses (e.g., theft) amounting to 20% and uncollected bills in the range of 5%.
  • 21. 2 Thermal capacity is divided into heavy fuel oil-fired steam-turbines at Zouk, Jiyeh and Hrayche, and diesel-fired CCGT at Beddawi and Zahrani and diesel-fired Open Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) at Tyre and Baalbeck. The energy produced from these plants is on average 92% of the total production. Zouk is considered Lebanon’s largest thermal power plant, and is located in a highly populated residential area. Its low efficiency (30% below design value) has caused the plant to be a significant environmental and economic issue in the last several years. Jiyeh is the oldest operating thermal plant also characterized by a high difference of fuel efficiencies compared to the design value (35%). Similarly, the deviation has caused several economic and environmental problems. Both Zouk and Jiyeh have already reached the end of their design life time and have no emissions abatement technology installed. In addition, both plants suffer from old combustion systems and poor firing operating conditions thereby further increasing their environmental impact in terms of emissions. It is anticipated that such thermal conventional plants may even manage to stay running for 5 additional years, in cases where the plants are well maintained and overhauls are conducted on time. As provided in the policy paper, the life of both Zouk and Jiyeh plants could, through a substantial rehabilitation program, be prolonged by about ten more years. Zahrani and Deir Aamar, the two most recently constructed power plants are combined cycle gas turbines. The decision to commission these plants was based on an agreement to import pipelined natural gas from Syria in the mid-1990s. These plants make up about half of Lebanon’s generation capacity and are estimated to be in a relatively good condition compared to other thermal plants. The operation and maintenance of these plants are outsourced through contracts. The concern is that they are not operating under optimal conditions as they are firing Diesel Oil (DO). The agreement initially provided for sufficient NG to supply both plants (around 1.5 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) per year at 80% load factor). However, only small quantities of natural gas were received and were enough to fire only one gas turbine at Deir Aamar at a load factor at 80%. But since the end of 2010, natural gas has stopped being available. The Zahrani power plant had never been connected to the NG pipeline. Hrayche unit 5 was part of a larger plant that existed in the past and was owned by Kadisha Company which is now a subsidiary of EDL. Hrayche thermal power plant unit 5 consists of an HFO boiler steam power plant in operation since 1982 and designed for a power output of 75 MW. Currently, unit 5 has reached its economic lifetime and shows relatively low performances due to a lack of spare-parts and maintenance. Private and self-generation In 2009, the average capacity and imports were 1,500 MW while the average demand was 2,100 MW with an instantaneous peak of 2,450 MW in the summer. The total energy demand was 15,000 GWh (Gigawatt hour) whereas the total production and purchases were 11,522 GWh resulting in energy not supplied (deficit) of 3,478 GWh (23%). The
  • 22. 3 supply of energy averaged 21.22 hours for Greater Beirut Area (GBA) and 15.79 hours for the South with an average of 18 hours (75%) for the whole country. The energy not supplied by public utilities is being supplied by privately owned generators, providing an estimated 33% of total electricity demand (World Bank, 2009).This share has reached 37% in 2012 (Kabakian et al., 2015). Most commonly, individual or community-based back-up generators are used, kicking-in when EDL’s supply is unable to meet demand. Parallel distribution lines are routed using the existing infrastructure of EDL connecting homes to a centralized set of diesel generators. With time, back-up generation has evolved to become a business based on service providers. It was reported that the private generation tariff had exceeded in many cases 45 US¢/kWh compared to the average utility tariff of 9 US¢/kWh. In essence, most consumers retain a connection both to EDL and to an alternative supply point. According to the policy paper, the self-generation bill had exceeded USD 1.7 billion in 2010 and the value is subject to increase if the load utilization factor of the backup generation keeps increasing whilst the utility utilization factor decreases. Losses to the national economy The failure of the Government of Lebanon (GoL) to reform the electricity sector is causing an annual deficit of USD 1.5 billion on the public purse and losses on the national economy estimated at not less than USD 2.5 billion per year. This crisis is caused by the lack of worthy investments, high fuel bill (62-75%), the operating status of power plants (half of which are old and inefficient and the other half uneconomical), high technical and commercial losses in transmission and distribution, improper tariff structure and low average tariff, deteriorating financial, administrative, technical and human resources of EDL. Topping this, the presence of convoluted legal and organizational frameworks exacerbate the exiting deteriorating situation.The legal framework for privatization, liberalization and unbundling of the sector (law 462) exists but is not applied. In parallel, the law implemented by decree 16878/1964 and 4517/1972 which gives EDL exclusive authority in the generation, transmission, and distribution areas is still being applied. The cost of energy not supplied (Value of Lost Load (VOLL)) has been estimated by Electricité De France and the World Bank in the Public Expenditure Review (PER) to vary between 200 and 2,000 USD/MWh. An average value of USD 700 per MWh not supplied (which includes the cost of private generation) has been used to show losses of USD 2.5 billion in 2009 for the Lebanese economy, which is divided between USD 1.3 billion for private generation and USD 1.2 billion for direct consumer losses. As for the tariff, the energy policy paper calls for a gradual increase until EDL’s fiscal budget is balanced. This is integrated with the improvement in electric service hence eliminating the need for private generators which results in featuring a lower net cost on the consumers. According to the policy, this is achieved through abolishing the financial burden resulting from the high cost of unregulated diesel generators. The policy also calls for the implementation of a modern tariff structure through the adoption of special tariffs and fees for low income consumers and productive sectors and through the implementation of a time of use tariffs in conjunction with the implementation of smart meters.
  • 23. Renewable energy Given the current condition of electricity supply in Lebanon, the share of renewable energy is slowly but steadily increasing. In the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit, the GoL made a voluntary commitment to develop renewable energy production capacity to reach 12% of the total electricity supply by 2020. That commitment was reaffirmed by the government through introducing this target as a major milestone in the policy paper for the electricity sector in 2010. Various initiatives have been put in place by the government of Lebanon in order to increase the share of renewable energy, and meet the 12% target by 2020. Currently, the major contributor to the renewable energy mix in the country is hydro power, producing around 4.5% of the country’s total energy production. However, Lebanon has a significant wind potential, especially in the North with wind speeds of 7-8 m/sec and an abundant solar resource with an average annual insolation of 1,800–2,000 kWh/m2 .The CEDRO wind atlas results showed an “extremely optimistic” potential of 6,200 MW and a more “realistic” one of 1,500 MW. Due to some constraints related to the electricity grid, land ownership and others, it is believed that the “most realistic” target for wind energy in Lebanon by 2020 is 400 MW (El-Khoury, 2012). Currently, the Ministry of Energy and Water is in the final stages of the evaluation of a 50-100 MW wind farm project tender, which will subsequently be submitted to the Council of Ministers (CoM) for approval. Solar water heating is well established in the country. Although technologies for solar power generation are becoming cheaper and more competitive, they are still relatively expensive and are currently only used at the micro level and for specific applications like street lighting, water heating and other municipal use. Lebanon has embarked on a national initiative to develop the solar water heating market and to install 1,050,000 m2 of solar systems by 2020 (El-Khoury, 2012). As for other renewable energy technologies, the Ministry of Energy and Water is also developing the small, decentralized, grid-connected renewable energy power generation market in Lebanon through a UNDP/GEF project. The target is to facilitate the installation of at least 1.75 MW of new decentralized renewable energy and to pave the way for larger renewable energy power plants (UNDP, 2015). 3. Greenhouse gas emissions inventory of the energy sector 3.1. Methodology The calculation of greenhouse gas emissions is based on the Revised 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for the Preparation of National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (IPCC, 1997) and the IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2000). According to these guidelines, the source category “Energy” covers all combustion sources of CO2 , CH4 and N2 O emissions and fugitive emissions associated with the production, transport and distribution of fossil fuels. 4
  • 24. 5 Use of the sectoral approach and the reference approach According to the IPCC guidelines, carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector are calculated using both the reference and the sectoral approach. The reference approach is a top-down approach using a country’s energy supply data (fuel import) to calculate the emissions of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels. The reference approach is a straightforward method that can be applied on the basis of relatively easily available energy supply statistics, leading to the calculation of apparent fuel consumption and consequently CO2 emissions. Fuel combustion activities are further divided in two main categories, on the basis of the characteristics of the methodology applied for the calculation of emissions: - - Transport, including domestic civil aviation, road transport, and domestic navigation. In this report, only emissions from stationary combustion are presented. Emissions from fuel combustion in the transport sector are published in a separate report[1] (MoE/UNDP/GEF, 2015a). Table 1: Energy sector - stationary combustion subcategories Energy industries sector comprises emissions from fuel combustion for electricity generation from main electricity producers, mainly public entities. In Lebanon, this category includes all thermal power plants of Electricité du Liban. Manufacturing industries and construction sector comprises emissions from combustion of fuels for electricity or heat generation for own use in industries. In Lebanon, emissions from community-based generators are accounted under this category. Commercial/institutional sectors comprises emissions from fuel combustion for electricity generation, space heating and cooking activities in commercial and institutional buildings. Residential sector comprises emissions from fuel combustion for space heating and cooking activities. Agriculture/forestry/fisheries sector comprises both stationary and mobile emissions from fuel combustion in agriculture, forestry and fishing. Related activities include fish farms, water pumps, grain drying, agricultural greenhouses, traction vehicles on farm land and in forest in addition to inland, coastal and deep sea fishing. Stationary combustion, including energy industries, manufacturing industries and construction and other sectors (agriculture, residential, commercial/institutional and agriculture/forestry/fisheries). [1] Available on http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb
  • 25. 6 The sectoral approach is a bottom-up method, using detailed information on the fuel consumption in each distinct sub-sector (power and thermal energy production, processing and construction industry, different ways of transport, institutional and residential sectors, etc.). It is a more complicated approach, relying heavily on statistical sectoral data. The application of the reference approach can be considered as a quality control procedure, as the deviation of estimations between the 2 approaches should not be significant. In Lebanon, calculation using both approaches shows a difference of less than 2% which is within the acceptable range of error. 3.2. Emission factors and other parameters Due to the lack of country specific emission factors and emissions measurements, tier 1 methodologies are adopted for the calculation of all GHG emissions from stationary combustion. CO2 , CH4 and N2 O emission factors and other parameters used in the calculation are based on default values of the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines and the IPCC Good Practice Guidance. CH4 and N2 O emission factors are differentiated by technology and fuel, while CO2 emission factors are differentiated only by fuel. Information on the net calorific value per imported fuel for Lebanon is mainly provided by the Ministry of Energy and Water. Table 2: Carbon content, net calorific value and other parameters by fuel type [2] TJ = Terajoule [3] Assumption is made that no carbon is stored, except for bitumen and 50% of lubricants, as per the IPCC default values. Fuel type Net calorific value (TJ[2] /ktonnes) Carbon content (tonnes C/TJ) Oxidation factor (%) Fraction of carbon stored[3] Gasoline 44.8 18.9 0.99 0 Jet kerosene 44.59 19.5 0.99 0 Kerosene 44.75 19.6 0.99 0 Diesel oil 43.33 20.2 0.99 0 Heavy fuel oil 40.19 21.1 0.99 0 Liquefied petroleum gas 47.31 17.2 0.99 0 Lubricants 40.19 20 0.99 0.5 Bitumen 40.19 22 0.99 1 Petroleum coke 31 27.5 0.99 0 Natural gas 48 15.3 0.995 0 Biomass 15 29.9 0.98 0
  • 26. 7 Table 3: CH4 and N2 O emission factors CH4 emission factor (kg/TJ) N2 O emission factor (kg/TJ) Natural gas Oil Biomass Natural gas Oil Biomass Energy industries 1 3 0.1 0.6 Manufacturing industries and construction 2 0.6 Transport Gasoline 20 0.6 Diesel 5 0.6 Commercial/institutional 10 300 0.6 4 Residential 10 300 0.6 4 Agriculture/forestry/fisheries 10 300 0.6 4 3.3. Activity data - stationary combustion The main reference for the calculation of GHG emissions from the energy sector was the data on fuel import reported by the Ministry of Energy and Water. As per MoEW records, the data of gas diesel oil and heavy fuel oil is divided between public use (i.e. for power plants operated by EDL) and private use, without further disaggregation indicating the amounts of fuel used by industries, by private generators, by the residential or commercial sector or in transport.Therefore, different initiatives were undertaken by the Ministry of Environment and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to collect information on the specific fuel consumption of the different subcategories in the energy sector (Table 4, Table 5 and Table 6).
  • 27. 8 Subcategory Data collection Energy industries Official contact was established with the Ministry of Energy and Water, data on energy production and fuel combustion in every EDL thermal power plants was collected and used for this inventory. All subcategories In collaboration with IPT, one of the main fuel importers and distributers in Lebanon, a categorization of fuel consumption per end-use was preformed based on the sale of fuel from IPT stations to private entities. Although the survey was conducted over one year (2013), it is assumed that the percent distribution remains constant across the years. Manufacturing industries and construction In collaboration with the Ministry of Industry, a survey of 180 major industries in Lebanon was undertaken by the climate change project at the Ministry of Environment to estimate fuel consumption on a disaggregated level and by industry type. The survey sample covered the largest industries in terms of production from each International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) category. The collected data was checked and supplemented by information provided by IPT. Commercial and institutional sectors A survey of 868 establishments covering different sub-sectors (schools, hospitals, commercial centers, retail shops, hotels, etc.) and all geographical areas was undertaken by the climate change unit at the Ministry of Environment to collect data related to fuel consumption for different institutions. Data was then extrapolated following statistically reliable and representative methods. Table 4: Methodology of data collection
  • 28. 9 [4] Also referred to as residual fuel oil [5] Emissions of bitumen use are not reported under the energy sector inventory but under the industrial sector. A separate report is available on http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb Fuel type Description End-use Gasoline It is a light hydrocarbon oil for use in internal combustion engines such as motor vehicles and in aviation turbine power units. - Road transport - Air transport Jet kerosene It is a medium distillate used for aviation turbine power units with particular specifications established by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). - Air transport Gas diesel oil Several grades of gas diesel oil are available depending on uses: diesel oil for diesel compression ignition (cars, trucks, marine, etc.) and light heating oil for industrial and commercial uses. - Road transport - Marine transport - Electricity production in thermal power plants and private generators - Space heating in residential, commercial and institutional sectors Heavy fuel oil[4] It comprises a family of oils that make up the distillation residue, including those obtained by blending. - Electricity production in thermal power plants - Energy production in some manufacturing industries - International navigation Liquefied petroleum gas This is the light hydrocarbon fraction of the paraffin series, derived from refinery processes, crude oil stabilization plants and natural gas processing plants. They are normally liquefied under pressure for transportation and storage. - Cooking in residential, commercial and institutional sectors - Energy production in some manufacturing industries Bitumen Solid, semi-solid or viscous hydrocarbon, being brown to black in color, often referred to as asphalt. - Road paving and asphalt roofing[5] Lubricant It is a hydrocarbon produced from distillate or residue; they are mainly used to reduce friction between bearing surfaces. - Maintenance of machinery and equipment Petroleum coke It is defined as a black solid residue, obtained mainly by cracking and carbonizing of petroleum derived feedstock, vacuum bottoms, tar and pitches. - Energy production in cement industries Natural gas It includes blended natural gas with other gases derived from other primary products. - Electricity production in thermal power plants Table 5: Description of fuel used in Lebanon
  • 29. 10 Source | MoEW, 2014 Based on the results of the surveys conducted (please refer to Table 4), Table 7 and Figures 1, 2 and 3 present the fuel distribution percentages adopted for the preparation of this inventory. Fuel type (1,000 tonnes) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Gasoline 1,273.10 1,224.61 1,306.82 1,401.17 1,617.67 1,594.94 1,598.42 Jet kerosene 145.52 103.36 139.73 166.69 174.57 220.95 223.88 Gas diesel oil 1,587.67 1,596.28 1,363.19 1,802.74 2,595.36 2,252.01 2,448.07 Heavy fuel oil 1,360.18 1,039.72 1,258.70 1,213.52 1,422.46 1,356.08 1,347.36 Liquefied petroleum gas 154.83 161.12 180.67 163.18 199.14 163.57 196.67 Bitumen 59.88 43.86 72.78 73.92 88.30 105.06 59.19 Lubricants 33.91 29.86 34.34 34.34 34.34 36.90 35.24 Petroleum coke 249.47 477.86 114.20 306.70 357.60 151.70 335.60 Natural gas 35 186 - Table 6: Quantities of fuel imported for the period 2005-2011
  • 30. 11 Fuel type Consumption Gas Diesel Oil (GDO) Energy industries (EDL) Fluctuating annual amount, depending on production need Road transport 14% of total GDO import Private generation 80% of energy not supplied Manufacturing industries and construction 49% of private generation Commercial and institutional sectors 51% of private generation Residential sector 52% of remaining GDO Agriculture/forestry/fisheries 48% of remaining GDO Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) Energy industries (EDL) Fluctuating annual amount, depending on production need International navigation Fluctuating annual amount, depending on need Manufacturing industries and construction Remaining amount of fuel oil Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Residential sector 72% of total import Manufacturing industries and construction 13% of total import Commercial and institutional sectors 15% of total import Gasoline Domestic aviation Fluctuating annual amount, depending on need Road transport Remaining amount of gasoline Jet kerosene International aviation 100% of total import Petroleum coke Cement industries 100% of total import Natural gas Energy industries (EDL) 100% of total import Lubricants Energy industries (EDL) 100% of total import Table 7: Distribution of fuel consumption by end-use Source | MoEW, 2014 and IPTEC, 2014
  • 31. Figure 1: Distribution of gas diesel oil by end-use category (2011) Figure 2: Distribution of heavy fuel oil by end-use category (2011) 12 Figure 3: Distribution of LPG by end-use category (2011) Energy industries (EDL) Privategeneration 80%ofenergynot supplied 53% 14% 15% Transport Manufacturing industries and construction Commercial/institutional sector Agriculture, forestry, fisheries Residential sector 16% 1% 1% Gas diesel oil import Energy industries (EDL) 88% 2% 10% International navigation Industrial sector Heavy fuel oil import Residential sector 72% 13% 15% Industrial sector Commercial/institutional sector LPG import
  • 32. 13 Source | MoEW, 2014 3.3.1. Energy industries - public electricity and heat production The fuel consumption used under the energy industries category for the estimation of GHG emissions is presented inTable 8. Data for fuel consumption for electricity production is obtained from the Ministry of Energy and Water, which is maintaining consumption data of fuel oil and gas diesel oil for each installation. Limited amounts of natural gas were imported and used in Lebanon in 2009 and 2010. Lubricants are used in thermal power plants to grease and maintain equipment and machinery. It is assumed that all imported lubricants are used under the energy industries category since only an insignificant undetermined amount is used in manufacturing industries and transport. Table 8: Activity data for fuel consumption in energy industries Fuel type Quantity (1,000 tonnes) 2009 2010 2011 Heavy fuel oil 1,132.72 994.29 1,305.67 Gas diesel oil 1,227.69 1,283.36 1,186.78 Natural gas 34.92 186.32 - Lubricants 34.34 36.90 35.24 3.3.2. Manufacturing industries and construction This category includes GHG emissions from fuel consumption in the 2 following activities: 1- 2- Production of electricity, steam and process heat by industries: the industrial sector is one of the major sectors consuming energy. However, due to the intermittent electricity supplied by EDL and the constant power shortages, most industries in Lebanon generate their own energy from in-house generators. Gas diesel oil and fuel oil are bought either directly from the Ministry of Energy and Water or from private fuel distributors and are used in the premises. Unfortunately no data is recorded on these quantities. Petroleum coke is consumed only in cement industries and imported quantities are delivered directly to the industries’ locations after receiving approval from the Ministry of Environment. Private generation: due to the frequent power shortages of EDL, community-based back- up generators have flourished in Lebanon, supplying electricity to households during cut-off hours (which range from 3 to 15 hours a day depending on the region). All these generators work on gas diesel oil which is bought either directly from private fuel distributors or from gas stations. Unfortunately, no data is available on the number, capacity or quantity of fuel used for private generators in the country. It is assumed that the gap between public electricity supply and demand in Lebanon is being met at 80% by community-based generators and commercial institutions’ generators.
  • 33. Source | MoEW, 2014 14 Fuel type Quantity (1,000 tonnes) 2009 2010 2011 Gas diesel oil 302.70 304.31 361.89 Heavy fuel oil 170.77 46.72 133.59 LPG 25.89 21.26 25.57 Petroleum coke 357.60 151.70 335.60 3.3.3. Transport GHG emissions from road, air and marine transport are presented in a different report published by the Ministry of Environment (MoE/GEF/UNDP, 2015a). 3.3.4. Other sectors This category includes the GHG emissions caused by fuel combustion in the commercial/ institutional sectors (hotels, schools, universities, retail shops, commercial centers, etc.), residential sector and agriculture/forestry/fisheries. Different types of fuel are considered under this category and are mainly used for electricity generation, cooking, heating, fishing and in other mobile equipment. Burning of wood for heat generation is under the residential sector’s category. However, only CH4 and N2 O emissions from burning of biomass are reported in the inventory. According to the IPCC guidelines, CO2 emissions are not included in the national total in a country’s emission inventory but are reported as memo items in the reporting tables (IPCC, 1997). Since no activity data is available on a disaggregated basis to allocate energy use to each subcategory, specific assumptions are made as presented in Table 10, Table 11and Table 12. Table 9 presents the quantities of fuel used in manufacturing industries and construction from 2009 to 2011, based on the following assumptions: - - - The LPG used in this sector is estimated at 13% of the total LPG import to Lebanon. Table 9: Activity data for fuel consumption in manufacturing industries and construction The gas diesel oil consumed for private generation is divided more or less equally between community-based generators and privately owned generators by commercial institutions (49% and 51% respectively). It is assumed that 1 liter of diesel oil generates 3.65 kWh. The heavy fuel oil used in manufacturing industries is estimated to be the difference between the total fuel oil imported to Lebanon minus the amount consumed by public utilities and the amount consumed for international navigation.
  • 34. 15 Commercial/institutional sectors Fuel type Quantity (1,000 tonnes) End-use Assumptions 2009 2010 2011 Gas diesel oil 317.65 319.34 379.76 - Electricity generation - Space heating - Water heating 51% of the fuel used for private generation is consumed by the commercial/institutional sectors. LPG 29.87 24.54 29.50 - Cooking - Space heating - Water heating 15% of the total LPG imported to Lebanon is used by the commercial/institutional sectors. Source | MoEW, 2014 Table 10: Activity data for fuel consumption in the commercial and institutional sectors Table 11: Activity data for fuel consumption in the residential sector Residential sector Fuel type Quantity (1,000 tonnes) End-use Assumptions 2009 2010 2011 Gas diesel oil 247.79 164.94 30.02 - Space heating - Water heating 52% of the remaining quantity of GDO after consumption in energy industries, transport and private generation is used by the residential sector. LPG 143.38 117.77 141.61 - Cooking - Space heating - Water heating 72% of the total LPG imported to Lebanon is used by the residential sector. Note: gas diesel oil used for electricity generation in households has been accounted for under the category manufacturing industries and construction – private generation. Source | MoEW, 2014
  • 35. 16 Table 12: Activity data for fuel consumption in agriculture/forestry/fisheries Agriculture/forestry/fisheries Fuel type Quantity (1,000 tonnes) End-use Assumptions 2009 2010 2011 Gas diesel oil 154 102 19 Mobile equipment 48% of the remaining quantity of GDO after consumption in energy industries, transport and private generation is used by agriculture/forestry/ fisheries. 77.61 51.66 9.40 Fishing boats Source | MoEW, 2014 3.3.5. Feedstock and non-energy use of fuels Some of the imported fuels are used as raw materials for the production of other products. In chemical industry and metal production, or the use of fuels for non-energy purposes such as bitumen and lubricants (HS code used for Lebanon is HS 27.10.19.90). Since these fuels are not combusted, their carbon content is totally or partially stored in the product and is not oxidized into carbon dioxide for a certain period of time. The CO2 released from the use or decomposition of the product is not reported under the energy sector’s inventory but under the industrial sector’s inventory (MoE/UNDP/GEF, 2015b). The calculation of carbon dioxide emissions from non-energy use of fuels is based on the relevant consumption by fuel type and the fraction of the carbon stored by fuel type (50% for lubricants and 100% for bitumen). 3.4. Gaps and constraints identified by INC and SNC Some gaps and needs for the calculation of GHG emissions from the energy sector were identified in the Initial National Communication (INC) and Second National Communication (SNC) as summarized in Table 13. They mainly consist of (1) the underdeveloped institutional arrangement for energy data monitoring and collection, (2) the unavailability of specific data and/or the inaccessibility of existing data for adopting tiers 2 and 3 methodologies, and (3) the use of default emission factors from IPCC guidelines instead of Lebanon fuel-specific emission factors. Some of these constraints were tackled in the preparation of this inventory, as part of the improvements introduced in the Third National Communication (TNC). However, many challenges still remain, mostly linked to data availability and institutional arrangements.
  • 36. 17 Table 13: Gaps and needs for the calculation of GHG emissions from the energy sector identified in the INC and SNC INC SNC Gaps Underdeveloped data collection for the inventory - Lack of institutional arrangement for data monitoring and reporting. - Absence of an energy balance. - Absence of disaggregation of fuel use per subcategory. Unavailable and/or unshared specific data for tiers 2 and 3 calculations Missing information on technological specifications of public power plants and private generators. Use of IPCC default emissions factors No fuel-specific emission factors elaborated for Lebanon. Needs Enforce specific activity data collection for the preparation of the inventory Create a national institutional arrangement for the preparation of the GHG inventory, empowering the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS), the relevant ministries and concerned public authorities to develop an energy balance and monitoring indicators of energy activity data. Share of data Standardize/centralize data reporting and develop protocols for data accessibility. Develop Lebanon’s fuel- specific emission factors and methodologies - Conduct measurements campaigns in order to elaborate specific emission factors representative of the Lebanese used fuel. - Develop GHG emissions estimation models with local research institutes to create Lebanon-specific methodologies using advanced bottom-up approaches for inventory preparation.
  • 37. 18 * For the calculation of the emissions in terms of CO2 eq., the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CH4 and N2 O were adopted from the IPCC Second Assessment Report (GWP CH4 =21 and GWP N2 O=310). Numbers may reflect rounding. Categories Emissions CO2 (Gg) CH4 (Gg) N2 O (Gg CO2 eq.) Total* (Gg CO2 eq.) Total energy 12,425.76 14.66 30.96 12,471.38 Energy industries 7,853.04 6.66 19.66 7,879.36 Manufacturing energy and construction 2,675.10 1.37 6.08 2,682.55 Other sectors 1,897.63 6.63 5.22 1,909.48 Commercial/institutional 1,293.72 3.75 3.32 1,300.79 Residential 513.67 2.62 1.67 517.96 Agriculture/forestry/fisheries 90.23 0.26 0.23 90.72 3.5. Results and discussion The results of the GHG emissions from the energy sector include emissions from energy industries, manufacturing industries and construction, commercial/institutional sectors, residential sector and agriculture/forestry/fisheries for the year 2011 and present a trend analysis for the period 2000- 2011. Although transport is considered to be a subcategory of the energy sector as per the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines, it is not reported in this publication. Due to the importance of the sector and its contribution to GHG emissions, the inventory of the transport sector has been published as a separate report (MoE/UNDP/GEF, 2015a[6] ). 3.5.1. Energy sector GHG inventory for 2011 In 2011, the energy sector’s GHG emissions were estimated at 12,471 Gg (Gigagram or 1,000 tonnes) CO2 eq. (12.4 million tonnes CO2 eq.), representing 51% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in Lebanon. Energy is mainly responsible for carbon dioxide emissions, while it also contributes to methane and nitrous oxide emissions and other air pollutants such as CO, NOx and SO2 . In 2011, 99.63% of the emissions from the energy sector were CO2 , 0.12% CH4 and 0.25% N2 O. The contribution of each source to the total of the sector is presented in Table 14 and Figure 4. The transport sector is not included in these calculations. Table 14: GHG emissions from energy by source category and gas for 2011 [6] Available on http://climatechange.moe.gov.lb/
  • 38. 19 Energy industries The energy sector relies on fossil fuel combustion for meeting the bulk of energy requirements in Lebanon. The final consumption in 2011 amounted to approximately 254,252 TJ. Since electricity generation from public power plants (energy industries) is the main fuel consumer; it is responsible for 63% of the sector’s emissions followed by manufacturing industries (22%) as illustrated in Figure 4. Indeed, public electricity generation is the largest contributor to the sector’s emission due to the fact that more than 88% of imported fuel oil and 53% of imported gas diesel oil are used in thermal power plants for public electricity generation (Figure 5). Figure 4: Contribution of energy emission sources to the sector’s total for 2011 Energy industries 63% Manufacturing industries and construction 22% Commercial institutional 10% Residential 4% Agriculture/forestry/ fisheries 1%
  • 39. In terms of the share of each power plant to the reported emissions, it is estimated that the Zahrani, Deir Aamar and Zouk plants are the highest emitters of greenhouse gases, given that they are the biggest power plants in terms of capacity, electricity generation and fuel consumption (Table 15). However, due to the high efficiency of the Zahrani and Deir Aamar installations (Figure 7), both plants are characterized by low emission intensity, generating around 590 tonnes CO2 eq. per GWh of electricity produced (Figure 6) while Zouk has a relatively high emission intensity, emitting 791 tonnes CO2 eq. per GWh electricity produced. In fact, the Zahrani and Deir Aamar power plants are the most recent installations and make up about half of Lebanon’s generation capacity, although not operating under optimal conditions. The two plants are equipped with diesel-fired combined cycle gas turbines, which are designed to best operate using natural gas. Their switch to natural gas is expected to drastically reduce their emissions as well as emission intensity. As for the Zouk power plant, its actual operation efficiency is below the design value by as much as 30%, leading to significant impacts on the fuel bill and greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, the Hrayche and Tyre power plants seem to be the most polluting installations, with the lowest operation efficiency (3.01 and 3.16 GWh/tonnes of fuel used respectively as per Figure 7) and the highest emission intensity, generating around 1,000 tonnes CO2 eq. per GWh of electricity produced (Table 15 and Figure 6). The Hrayche power plant is a relatively small installation using heavy fuel oil in steam-turbines to produce around 3% of the country’s total Figure 5: Consumption of gas diesel oil and fuel oil per subcategory 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Gas diesel oil Fuel oil Kilotonnes International aviation Transport Agriculture/forestry/fisheries Residential Commercial/institutional Manufacturing industries and construction Energy industries 20
  • 40. 21 electricity production. The plant was built in 1982 and is showing relatively low performances due to a lack of spare-parts and maintenance, hence justifying its high emission intensity. As for the Tyre power plant, it operates on open cycle gas turbines since 1996 and is only used at peak demand due to its low efficiency and high cost of generation. Table 15: Electricity production and CO2 emissions per thermal power plant for 2011 Numbers may reflect rounding. Fuel type Fuel used (tonnes) Production (GWh) CO2 emissions (tonnes CO2 eq.) Emission intensity (tonnes CO2 eq./ GWh) Zouk Fuel oil 614,242 2,398 1,896,951 791 Jiyeh Fuel oil 472,557 1,509 1,459,388 967 Hrayche Fuel oil 93,893 282 289,969 1,027 Deir Aamar Gas diesel oil 535,918 2,895 1,708,509 590 Zahrani Gas diesel oil 576,009 3,130 1,836,319 587 Baalbeck Gas diesel oil 60,348 201 192,390 958 Tyre Gas diesel oil 106,258 336 338,751 1,009 Average 847 Figure 6: Emission intensity of thermal power plants 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Zouk Jiyeh Hrayche Deir Aamar Zahrani Baalbeck Tyre TonnesCO2eq./Gwh
  • 41. Out of the 3,983.34 Gg CO2 eq. emitted from the manufacturing industries and construction and commercial/institutional sectors in 2011, private electricity generation emitted 2,370 Gg CO2 eq. accounting for 13% of total GHG emissions from energy activities. These emissions are closely 22 Figure 7: Thermal power plants efficiency Manufacturing industries and construction and commercial/institutional sectors Other high-emitting subcategories in the energy sector are manufacturing industries and construction and the commercial/institutional sectors since they cover all combustion activities related to the private generation of electricity. Due to a high difference between electricity supply and demand, electricity is being produced through generators in the industrial, commercial, institutional and residential sectors either through privately owned generators or through neighborhood generators. In 2011, 741,651 tonnes of gas diesel oil were used for private electricity generation, representing more than half the amount used in EDL diesel-fired power plants and constituting 30% of total import of gas diesel oil (Figure 8). Figure 8: Consumption of gas diesel oil per end-use Energy industries 53%Private generation 30% Transport 14% Other 3% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Zouk Jiyeh Hrayche Deir Aamar Zahrani Baalbeck Tyre Gwh/ktonnesfuel HFO DO
  • 42. 23 Table 16: Fuel consumption and GHG emissions of private generation for 2011 Gas diesel oil consumed (tonnes) GHG emissions (tonnes CO2 eq.) Estimated Production (GWh) Emission intensity (tonnes/GWh) Private generation 741,651 2,370,931 3,326 713 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 Energy industries Private generation TonnesCO2 eq./GWh Figure 9: Emission intensity in tonnes CO2 eq./GWh of energy industries versus private generation in Lebanon linked to the quantity of gas diesel oil used in the generators. As illustrated in Table 16 and Figure 9, it is estimated that on average generating electricity from private generators emits on average less than generating electricity from public thermal power plants. Indeed, while public power plants emit on average 847 tonnes CO2 eq. per GWh produced, private generators emit only 713 tonnes CO2 eq. per GWh. In addition, in absolute terms, public energy generation produces more GHG emissions than private generation since it produces more electricity and consumes more fossil fuel (Figure 9 and Figure 10). Figure 10: GHG emissions of energy industries versus private generation in Lebanon in 2011 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Energy industries Private generation GgCO2 eq.
  • 43. 3.5.2. Trends in Lebanon’s GHG emissions for the energy sector: 2000-2011 The GHG emissions of the energy sector increased by 12%, between 2000 and 2011, from 11,171 Gg CO2 eq. in 2000 to 12,471 Gg CO2 eq. in 2011. The key driver behind this increase is the growing demand for energy caused by population growth and economic development, as illustrated in Figure 12 and Figure 13. However, this increase in energy demand was not met by a proportional increase in energy production from public utilities at EDL. Indeed, as shown in Figure 14, the trend in total emissions does not follow the trend of emissions from energy industries, reiterating the fact that electricity production from public utilities preserved a constant growth during the 2000-2011 period. Consequently, the emission gap specifically from 2009 to 2011 is caused by private generators. This is further confirmed in Figure 15 where it is notable that the increase in emissions is mainly due to the increase in gas diesel oil import, which is the main fuel used in private generators whereas heavy fuel oil imports, which are mainly used in public thermal power plants, witnessed a shy growth with a clear disproportion to the increase in emissions. 24 Residential sector In the residential sector, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is estimated to be the main source of GHG emissions (421 Gg CO2 eq.), followed by gas diesel oil that is used for space and water heating in households (Figure 11). Emissions from the use of private generators in residential buildings are not allocated in this category to avoid double counting from private generation under the manufacturing industries and construction category. Figure 11: Distribution of GHG emissions in 2011 per fuel type used in the residential sector Numbers may reflect rounding. LPG 81.27% Gas diesel oil 18.54% Biomass 0.20%
  • 44. 25 Figure 12: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and GHG emission trends from the energy sector Figure 13: Population growth and GHG emission trends from the energy sector 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 GDP(billionUSD) GHGemissions(GgCO2 eq.) Energy total GHG emissions GDP 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Population(million) GHGemissions(GgCO2 eq.) Energy total GHG emissions Population 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 45. Figure 15: Fuel import and GHG emissions trends of the energy sector 26 Figure 14: Trend of GHG emissions from energy industries 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 GHGemissions(GgCO2 eq.) Energy total Energy industries 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Fuel(ktonnes) GHGemissions(GgCO2 eq.) Energy total GHG emissions HFO import GDO import 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 46. 27 Emission growth did not follow a stable trend, as it witnessed 2 detectable drops in 2007 and 2010 in addition to one significant increase in 2009.The drop in the emission trend in 2007, mainly driven by a similar drop in gas diesel oil import is an indirect result of the July 2006 war where significant damage to the road network and electricity infrastructure was inflicted. Indeed, due to the impairment of the electricity distribution network, it was impossible to distribute all the electricity produced and consequently thermal power plants were operating at partial load during the year 2007. The rehabilitation of the infrastructure extended over 2 years, and it wasn’t until 2009 that power plants started to run on full capacity again, hence explaining the peak in GHG emissions in 2009. As for the decrease in emissions observed in 2010 which is proportional to the decrease in gas diesel oil import, it is mainly caused by (1) the use of natural gas in the Deir Aamar plant in 2010 thus consuming 40% less gas diesel oil, (2) the increase in hydropower production by 34% from 2009 to 2010 and (3) the decrease in production of the Tyre plant (consuming 30% less gas diesel oil). Lebanon’s emission factors from electricity production has slightly changed during the last years with 2010 having the lowest emission factor due to the provision and use of natural gas during this year (Table 17). Table 17: Lebanon’s emission factors from the electricity sector 3.5.3. Trends in indirect GHGs and SO2 for the energy sector: 2000-2011 The role of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx ) and Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs) is important for climate change as these gases act as precursors of tropospheric ozone. In this way, they contribute to ozone formation and alter the atmospheric lifetimes of other greenhouse gases. Sulphur dioxide (SO2 ) also has an indirect impact on climate, as it increases the level of aerosols with a subsequent cooling effect. Therefore, emissions of these gases should be taken into account in national inventories. Emissions of non-CO2 gases are calculated based on tier 1 methodology by applying emission factors (Table 18 andTable 19) to fuel statistics which are organized by sector. In reality, emissions depend on the fuel type used, combustion technology, operating conditions, control technology and on maintenance and age of the equipment. However, since such detailed data is unavailable in Lebanon, the use of more detailed methodologies was not possible. Emission factor (tonnes CO2 eq./MWh) 2009 2010 2011 2012 Electricity produced by EDL (thermal and hydro) 0.697 0.660 0.678 0.676 Electricity produced by EDL and private generation (assumed at 80% of energy not supplied) 0.693 0.647 0.668 0.657
  • 47. In Lebanon, the main gases emitted by the energy sector for the period 2000-2011 are SO2 , which is mainly caused by the sulphur content in burnt fuel, and NOx , which is mainly generated through the combustion processes in thermal power plants. CO and NMVOCs are emitted at lower rates (Table 20). The trend analysis of these emissions shows a notable increase in NOx emissions (34%) and SO2 emissions (16%) from 2000 to 2011. These are primarily caused by the increased consumption of both heavy fuel oil and gas diesel oil during this period. The highest values of emissions for both NOx and SO2 were recorded in 2009 due to a peak in fuel combustion while the lowest values were recorded in 2007 due to the indirect impacts of the July 2006 war (Figure 16). Table 19: Emission factors and other parameters of SO2 emissions Heavy fuel oil Diesel oil Sulphur content of fuel (%) 2 1 Sulphur retention in ash (%) 1 1 Abatement efficiency (%) 1 1 Net calorific value (TJ/Ktonnes) 40.19 43.33 SO2 emission factor (kg/TJ) 975.47 452.39 28 NMVOCs emission factor (kg/TJ) NOx emission factor (kg/TJ) CO emission factor (kg/TJ) Natural gas Oil Biomass Natural gas Oil Biomass Natural gas Oil Biomass Energy industries 5 5 150 200 20 15 Manufacturing industries and construction 5 200 10 Other sectors 5 600 100 100 20 5,000 Table 18: Emission factors of indirect greenhouse gases
  • 48. 29 Emissions (Gg) NOx CO NMVOCs SO2 2000 22.64 1.82 0.62 86.57 2001 26.90 2.06 0.72 103.27 2002 26.72 2.05 0.72 99.63 2003 25.76 2.01 0.71 91.2 2004 26.14 2.02 0.71 93.42 2005 23.96 1.91 0.65 84.35 2006 23.47 1.81 0.62 76.29 2007 21.35 1.69 0.57 73.78 2008 25.42 1.96 0.67 83.12 2009 30.69 2.67 0.87 105.89 2010 26.82 2.34 0.76 92.37 2011 30.38 2.45 0.83 100.29 Table 20: Indirect GHG emissions and SO2 emissions from the energy sector Figure 16: Indirect GHG emissions and SO2 emissions from the energy sector 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Emissions(Gg) NOx CO NMVOCs SO2

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