Natural Gas Industry Feature Analysis
Focus Article on U.S. Natural Gas Industry
Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Transcripts - Natural Gas Industry Feature Analysis
FEATURE ENERGY ANALYSIS By Senior Energy Industry Executive Karl W. Miller Natural Gas: Tying Supply, Demand and Politics Together in the U.S. EconomyReprint of January 26, 2010 Feature Analysis Natural gas is a clean fuel for the U.S. Washington Politicians need to start listening to senior industry executives to put a credible energy plan in place and focus on investing in America.Nothing will stop the natural gas revival and industry consolidation which is well under way.However, sometimes the message has to be repeated, much like the military mantra; tell themwhat you are going to tell them, tell them, and then tell them what you told them, and tell themagain. Financial markets have a very short memory as history has shown, so let’s tell themagain.The U.S. economy runs on three key factors; i) a stable housing market and; ii) affordable anddependable energy supply and; iii) stable employment environment. Without these three criticalfactors functioning properly, there will be no meaningful economic recovery in the U.S.economy.The road to economic recovery all starts with truly cleaning up the banks, hedge funds andinsurance companies bad debts and scraping the currently flawed renewable energy andcarbon emissions plans being proposed by the current administration.The defunct real estate loans in the residential and commercial marketplace must be properlyvetted, written down to net realizable value, and moved off the banks, hedge funds andinsurance company books.The Government must force this to happen quickly and without preference for any specificgroup, despite the strong lobby by various groups. There will be bankruptcies and liquidations;these are the cold hard facts of a capitalist society, which the U.S. Economy is founded upon.The U.S. needs a credible and sensible energy policy and emissions plan. We have "abundantnatural gas and coal resources" to support our energy needs for many years into the future, ifproperly deployed for further usage into the industrial and consumer bases.
Mr. Miller also encourages investors to take this market opportunity to focus on core value ofcompanies in all sectors. When the political dust settles, companies that generate cash flow, arepositioned for growth, and are essential to the U.S. Economy like natural gas will still be coreinvestments to all class of investors.Why is Natural Gas Not in State of Permanent Excess Supply Mr. Miller is a strong proponent of natural gas and called the revival of natural gas earlier this year but the gross inaccuracies being portrayed about Natural gas production, supply, and end use in Washington and select media require immediate correction for the benefit of public interest. For reference see: http://www.investorideas.com/news/122909a.asp,Natural gas is utilized by three major class of consumers; i) the power generation industry; ii)the industrial complex; iii) the local utilities across the U.S. which distribute natural gas toindividual homes and office buildings.As Mr. Miller details in review of the “Dash to Natural Gas” of the 1990’s through 2003, atremendous amount of natural gas fired power plants were constructed, some in “load centers”or major consumption areas, some in fringe areas like the southeast U.S. and some in outrightpoor locations. To put the rationale to construct all of these natural gas fired power plants inlayman terms, these natural gas fired power plants were supposed to replace the older coalfired power plants controlled by the regulated utilities across the country, be more efficient, andemit much less CO2.The industry forecast and thesis at that time was for natural gas to be priced at$3.50/$4.00/mmbtu in perpetuity, as natural gas was reported to be in oversupply, plentiful andwould never in theory be interrupted, thus always available for firm deliver.The plants were built on a scale never seen before in U.S. History, over $500 billion of debt wasadded to the top 80 utilities and natural gas companies going into 2001, and then theindependent natural gas power plant market promptly crashed, went into financial distress andfaded away from the mainstream.The regulated utilities would not close the older, less efficient, and larger carbon emitting coalplants, nuclear stranded cost were winding down and the owners of nuclear power plants hadsubstantially reduced amortized cost basis, thus could sell their power cheaper than natural gasplants, and the U.S. never implemented a national energy plan, and natural gas was not alwaysavailable in certain regions during peak demand, and thus not in oversupply.These natural gas power plants are still on the ground, some running, some mothballed. Ifnatural gas were truly “in permanent excess supply”, the utilities would immediately shut downhundreds of the coal plants running 24 hours a day across the country, fire up the natural gas
plants under their control, and contract with the independent power producers who control theother natural gas plants. This has not happened during the past ten (10) years, nor will ithappen anytime in the foreseeable future.It is very positive that independent gas producers have started to discover and exploitalternative means of extracting natural gas from shale and tight sands, within the U.S. borders,as Mr. Miller firmly believes and has advised Washington and the industry that it will become a“bridge” fuel by default. Despite the fact that Washington simply does not have the energymarket knowledge or capacity to implement a credible energy plan for the U.S. at the currenttime.The hope of a bi-partisan energy plan has escaped the current administration, despite continuedcounseling from Mr. Miller and many other senior energy executives. However, this does notmean that natural gas is overflowing out of every gas valve across the United States. Nor will itfor quite some time.By far, the largest consumer of natural gas should be the power generation industry across theU.S. If CO2 limits are put in place by the Federal Government at some point in the future, orindividual states through the imposition of CO2 non-attainment zones, displacing anddisadvantaging coal fueled plants, and all or a large portion of the natural gas power plants onthe ground today were to be run as base load (running 24 hours a day) plants, excluding thesmall gas peakers, a tremendous strain would be put on the natural gas distribution system(major pipelines and local distribution pipelines) and diminishing any “purported permanentexcess supply.Secondly, if the local utilities started pulling gas at higher rates through the City Gate (deliverypoints for natural gas to major retail consuming areas like Chicago, for example), due to retailconsumers using a greater amount of natural gas, a further strain would be put on thedistribution system, in addition to further diminishing any “purported permanent excess supply”.Thirdly, if the U.S. industrial complex started pulling more natural gas into their industrialfacilities (the Texas/Louisiana petrochemical/refinery complex for example) a further strainwould be put on the distribution system, in addition to further diminishing any “purportedpermanent excess supply”.Fourthly, if we start fueling truck fleets and other transportation vehicles with natural gas, thequestion must be asked, is supply sufficient at peak heating market demand time of the wintermonths and peak cooling season of the summer? Is the transmission and distribution system inplace to handle such use of natural gas that we can say with authority that “natural gas is inpermanent excess supply”?Also, do we have the necessary “high deliverability gas storage facilities” (salt dome or depletedfields) to handle these large withdrawals and swings of natural gas to meet excessive demand,which would essentially break the current seasonal injection period during the summer monthsand withdrawals during the winter months?There would be no injection season as the industry knows it today, and no historical statistics touse as a benchmark, thus prices would continue to be volatile, reflecting a more real timesupply/demand ratio for physical natural gas and for future delivery (futures contract), whichthey should.
Those that can pay for the physical resource in real time would set the price of natural gas, andMr. Miller is firmly convicted this will lead to higher prices and volatility, rather than lower pricesand volatility. This is what is commonly referred to as a “free market”.Take for example the construction of a wind park in the desert of Arizona or Nevada forexample, without a transmission line to deliver any electricity produced to the end user. Thewind park owner could say that he has excess power supply; however, he has no means oftransmitting that power supply to an end user, rendering the wind power useless.Finally, if natural gas were in “permanent excess supply” there would be no independent naturalgas producers in business such as XTO (Exxon), EOG, DVN, CHK, APC, and many otherindependent producers critical to the future of the U.S. Energy industry and overall economy.Also, signing long term contracts with end users to lock in a percentage of natural gasproduction is a long standing practice in the industry; alternatively locking in the price the naturalgas producer receives through a long term natural gas swap.These are a positive event for the industry, as long term contracts allow producers to gainfinancing of their production operations, not a negative sign or downward price signal. In fact,history has shown that the higher percentage of long term contracts put in place, the scarcity ofsupply principle takes over, and prices become more volatile and sensitive to supply/demandevents, given a larger portion of the commodity is locked up and a smaller portion is availablefor the spot market or for future delivery. Thus natural gas prices rise.There was a time in the 1980s when independent natural gas producers could not even getfinancing to produce the gas in the ground that they owned under conventional drilling andrecovery methods, thats why we as an industry invented the gas bank deal structure, to helpfinance these producers and bring natural gas to market. We opened up the natural gaspipelines, deregulated the industry and created “open access”, thus a free market.If the U.S. were awash in natural gas, we would shut down the coal industry, stop building windfarms and solar farms, and there would be no need for a comprehensive energy plan for theU.S. to gain energy independence. We would simply flat-line natural gas prices.This will not happen anytime in the near future. Natural gas is a fuel of the future, but pricevolatility will rise, not fall and this is not a bad thing. It is a sign of a healthy, vibrant, and credibleasset class, “natural gas”.Winter/summer: There are Two Natural Gas Peak Seasons in the U.S. Lest we forget, we constructed over 250,000 megawatts of natural gas fired generation in the U.S. ten years ago with efficient heat rates (energy conversion factors), and they will be used more often each year going forward, as we experience more extreme winters and summers.
Investors should keep in mind, that during peak season and usage, the mainline pipelinesystems in the U.S operate at or near maximum capacity, and "statistical natural gas in storage"is not always available, which is why we have massive price spikes at the "City Gates" or majorconsuming and producing areas. (Chicago, New York, and Southern California, etc.)“Mr. Miller believes that the natural gas market is not currently pricing in winter demandproperly and is not pricing in a normal summer peak demand, given the recession of2009. The natural gas market has been lulled to sleep on price volatility, and is due for amassive correction to the upside either due to winter or summer peak usage, and whatMr. Miller believes to be fundamental flaws in estimating working gas in storage, actualdeliverability of gas when required and insufficient mainline transportation.”While the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Contract is a useful reference, what is more important iswhat is happening on the ground at the wellhead, compression station, storage facility, powerplants and industrial consumers and the City gates."Remember Mr. Millers example of the wind farm in the desert, you can build the most efficientwind farm money can buy today, but if you dont have wind, and you dont have a transmissionline and a massive renewable energy credit and federal tax credit, you have scrap value". Thus,natural gas in storage is not natural gas in the pipeline, or at the demand center.It is a very positive thing that we have producers and some semblance of a financial system leftthat can actually still underwrite a long term gas contracts or financial hedges, as that is a skillset and art that has been lost on the industry for quite some time, as well as a limited number offinancial institutions that have the credit and capability to participate in that arena.The say one never forgets how to ride a bike, but in Natural Gas case, industry veterans like Mr.Miller and a select few others have had to step in and not only teach the U.S. Government whatthe natural gas market is, but have had to drive many aspects of the industry recovery andrecognition, which includes a tremendous amount of education for the general public, media andyounger financial bankers and traders.Finally, dont go to sleep looking at the NYMEX futures contract and believe you have a grip onwhere natural gas prices or the market structure is going. The Futures contract is purely forspeculative purposes and true producers and physical participant’s hedge and trade via the overthe counter natural gas swap market, physical delivery points and use the natural gas forwardprice curve beyond eighteen (18) months.Natural Gas is back in the mainstream, it is here to stay, and it is not going away just because aweather forecaster says that next week, next month, or next year are going to be a degreecooler or hotter. Core commodities have staying power, and Natural Gas has been revived anda very big way.
Production Questions-Decline Profile The natural gas production decline curve for shale and tight sands natural gas production is the wild card.The decline trend in natural gas well production is dictated by natural geologic formations, rockand fluid properties among other factors. Thus, a major advantage of decline trend analysis isinclusion of all production and operating conditions that would influence the performance ofnatural gas wells.For illustrative purposes, the standard declines (observed in field cases and whosemathematical forms are derived empirically) are:· Exponential decline· Harmonic decline· Hyperbolic declineAs an example a study was done on a few specific wells for production histories of fractured lowpermeability gas wells in the Piceance Basin in Northern Colorado, which are characterized by asharp initial decline followed by a long transition into exponential decline.These two decline periods correspond to linear and pseudo steady-state flow, respectively.Predicting decline rates and reserves based on test data or short production histories is difficultusing conventional decline curve analysis, thus making shale gas and tight sands productioncurves difficult to forecast.The usual approach to predicting reserves by decline curve analysis, in this type of well, is toarbitrarily assign a high exponential decline rate for the first two or three years, followed by alower decline. Another approach is to find a hyperbolic decline curve to fit the early tine data andextrapolate to estimate future rates. Both of these approaches can result in large errors incalculated reserves.“Simply put, we don’t know how steep the production decline curve will be for non-traditional natural gas production will be. There is no quantitative evidence that analystcan use today to support excess supply of natural gas in the future, further pressuringprices to the upside.”
Renewable Energy: Politics and Ties to Unstable Wind and Solar Mr. Miller has also provided endless advice to the current democratic administration regarding renewable energy. Better to retreat, regroup, and reform for a later date in the future. Additionally, it seems the Democrats did not bother to even look into the Department of Energys own internal energy forecast, that 78-80 percent of the U.S. Energy will be supplied by fossil fuels by the year 2035.Mr. Miller has issued a Sell opinion rating on the US renewable and green energy sector.Despite the feel good factor all Americans desire by declaring themselves green and renewablefriendly, industry executives have consistently counseled the current democratic administration,republican leadership and industry officials that the proposed terms of the cap-and-trade bill willlead to disastrous consequences for the U.S. Energy industry.The Industry Sell Rating Rationale is driven by fact that the renewable industry is still veryimmature in the United States. The public companies in the renewable energy sector willcontinue to be very volatile and face extreme pressures and difficulty to deliver the promisedgrowth in net earnings and tangible asset growth. Nor will it have any meaningful effect for there-powering and re-fueling of the U.S. power generation industry, nor will it deliver sustainableefficient energy production.The renewable energy sector is still a very long way from competing with the net cost of fossilfuels as measured by generation energy source and recouping the required substantialinvestments necessary to justify the current sector valuations.Net Generation Shares by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors)Coal - 46.8%Natural Gas - 20.3%Nuclear - 21.2%Petroleum - 1.3%Other Energy Sources - 3.9% Hydroelectric Conventional - 6.5%Source: Energy Information AdministrationTo View Mr. Millers Analysis go to:http://www.newenergyworldnetwork.com/cleantech-features/energy-player-karl-miller-predicts-renewable-energy-market-will-crash.htmlNewNet News - Energy player Karl Miller predictsrenewable energy .To view Mr. Millers Full report: U.S. Renewable Energy: A Self Inflicted Crisis in the Making goto: http://news.prnewswire.com/ViewContent.aspx?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/06-29-2009/0005052129&EDATE=
Distribution Problems-pipelines, LDC’s Investors should keep in mind, that during peak season and usage, the mainline pipeline systems in the U.S operate at or near maximum capacity, and "statistical natural gas in storage" is not always available, which is why we have massive price spikes at the "City Gates" or major consuming and producing areas.Do not be fooled or lulled to sleep by looking at one static statistic that says we have massiveexcess natural gas in storage in perpetuity. This is not only not true, it is quite the opposite, wehave massive infrastructure problems, lack of pipeline transmission and laterals to servicepower plants and industrial users, as evidenced by the major natural gas delivery curtailmentsthis past two weeks across the country.Underground Storage Modeling Problems On January 7, 2010, Mr. Miller made the call and warned the market that the U.S. natural gas storage supplies were poised to flip from surplus to historical deficit during next 30 Days.Mr. Miller notes this has nothing to do with China, hedge funds, Washington politics, or anyother excuse market prognosticators could put on the table. This is good old fashioned U.S.domestic demand and usage, which should provide substantial support to U.S. natural gasproduction companies. Let’s review the facts.Working gas in storage was 2,607 Bcf as of Friday, January 15, 2010, according to EIAestimates. This represents a net decline of 245 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 22 Bcfhigher than last year at this time and 6 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,613 Bcf. In the EastRegion, stocks were 56 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 131 Bcf.Stocks in the Producing Region were 5 Bcf below the 5-year average of 815 Bcf after a netwithdrawal of 96 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 55 Bcf above the 5-year average after anet drawdown of 18 Bcf. At 2,607 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range. Mr.Miller can say with relative certainty that the natural gas in storage has now flipped to ahistorical deficit by much larger numbers than reported by the EIA today.We will see this deficit formally reported next Thursday, January 28, 2010, even with the currentdiscrepancies in the EIA reporting methodology, which Mr. Miller has opined understates actualwithdrawals of natural gas from storage across the U.S.
Thus, going into the final week of January, we have quickly moved from what many marketanalysts have touted for months was a massive excess of natural gas production and supply instorage, to a deficit, with demand projected to grow substantially in February and March due toextreme winter weather forecasted for the Eastern U.S. For reference see Mr. Miller’s article“Weather Update: Cold February and March in the Eastern US”:seekingalpha.com/instablog/522236-karl-w...Also, Mr. Miller suggest everyone, especially energy traders remember that there is a Westernregion of the U.S. (often overlooked), and that region consumes a large amount of natural gasboth in winter and summer, so it’s not all about the Eastern U.S., as we found today with anatural gas withdrawal of 245 billion cubic feet of gas withdrawn from storage according to theEIA.The net result is that in Mr. Millers opinion natural gas withdrawals have been understated andthe weather volatility combined with the undervalued summer volatility will drive oil and naturalgas prices up substantially higher in 2010.We have lost much of our executive expertise related to natural gas and oil contracting,hedging, and risk management over the last ten to fifteen years in the U.S. Dont be misled by anatural gas or oil producer announcing that they have hedged part of their production output asbeing something negative.The facts clearly indicate that the U.S. is consuming massive amounts of natural gas in the U.S.right now and are projected to continue doing so for the next 60 days which would leaving amassive deficit in natural gas in storage, going into the spring and peak summer seasons, whichMr. Miller believes is significantly underpriced.These are powerful facts and circumstances for all investors to consider, as the U.S. is burningthrough a lot of natural gas very quickly and demand is slated to grow much higher goingforward. Investors considering a shelter from the market storm might do well to consider naturalgas production companies.For further reference see Mr. Miller’s analysis “Oil and Natural Gas: A Hedge from the Doomand Gloom Prognosticators and Rose Colored Glasses”: seekingalpha.com/instablog/522236-karl-w...A Closer Look at What Risks the Short Sellers and Speculators Face and Their Future Financial short sellers and speculators trade the financial energy commodities, primarily natural gas and oil due to the liquidity and ease of clearing and leverage they can use to establish their positions. That is the advantage of having a functioning and healthy financial system.
However, when that system breaks down, the results are severe and swift and immediatelyimpact each and every financial institution that is providing leverage to the hedge funds or in thiscase “shorts”; the clearinghouses seize financial assets and go into the market for immediateliquidation, which ripples through the market instantaneously in what the market refers to assystemic risk. In layman’s terms it’s a good old fashioned run on the bank and it’s not pretty andalways leaves casualties.Yet the age old problem shorts encounter when everyone piles into the same trade as they aretoday is they start sitting on top of each other, amplifying the systemic risk and crowding thepotential orderly exit door, much like airplanes circling a busy airport, racked, stacked, andpacked, as air traffic controllers would say.Eventually each plane must land or crash for lack of fuel as every airplane has limited fuelreserves to circle the airport for a certain period of time. Short sellers are gambling that theyhave enough reserve fuel to stay aloft and not crash land.How does that relate to energy commodities and the massive traffic jam we have in the naturalgas and oil markets today called the “shorts”, well let’s look at some basic issues facing theseinvestors, who by are packed like sardines in a trade, which is not novel, not unique, andcertainly not complex.Speculation is a double edged sword, when it works, rewards are generous, when the bladeturns, and the results are catastrophic, especially if everyone is sitting in the same sardine can,much like the mortgage backed securities trade which took down Lehman Brothers, BearStearns, Merrill, and almost the entire financial system. There was no exit door big enough toallow the heard to get out quickly, efficiently and with any meaningful capital, as the marketquickly went against them, thus the run on the bank.Remember there are two (2) peak energy demand seasons in the U.S. and we constructed over250,000 megawatts of natural gas fired generation in the U.S. ten years ago with efficient heatrates (energy conversion factors), and they will be used more often each year going forward, aswe experience more extreme winters and summers; case in point, the current winter 2010 whichis forecasted to be the worst in 15 years. Power plant construction was a debt fiasco in itself, which led to the bankruptcy of NRG, PG&E National Energy Group, Mirant, and almost bankrupted many other companies
As mentioned, NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Contract is a useful price reference, what is moreimportant is what is happening on the ground at the wellhead, compression station, storagefacility, power plants and industrial consumers and the City gates.Do not be fooled or lulled to sleep by looking at one static statistic that says we have massiveexcess natural gas in storage in perpetuity. The situation on the ground is quite the opposite, wehave massive infrastructure problems in the U.S., lack of pipeline transmission and laterals toservice power plants and industrial users, as evidenced by the major natural gas deliverycurtailments in late December and early January, or to use the analogy, a jammed exit door.As Mr. Miller points out that traditional storage models have become dated and are grosslyunderestimating the true injections and withdrawals of natural gas in the U.S. leading tosubstantial standard deviations in analyst estimates and reported withdrawals.Core commodities have staying power, and Natural Gas has been revived and a very big way. Atrue energy investor rarely has to look at NYMEX to know what is happening in the market,whether long or short. They know the physical market and infrastructure and watch closely tosee when the sardine can is packed full.It will be interesting to see how long the “shorts” can stay aloft in this environment and howmuch leverage their keepers, the financial institutions and clearinghouses are willing to providethem.How Do Investors Navigate in the Natural Gas Sector?That is, how does one navigate the volatility of the market to position their portfolios in theenergy sector for the balance of 2010 and beyond? Mr. Miller has already opined on multipleoccasions that in his opinion, there will be no downward correction in natural gas and oil during2010 and the markets will set permanent new floor prices by year end despite any errantforecast correction in the broader markets.The Energy industry is consolidating and 2010 will be a year that major industry marketparticipants position their portfolios for the next 20-30 years, thus making prices somewhatimmune to broader market issues.Natural Gas is back in the mainstream, it is here to stay, and it is not going away just because aweather forecaster says that next week, next month, or next year are going to be a degreecooler or hotter.Follow Karl Millers market and energy commentary athttp://www.naturalgasstocks.com/Karl_Miller/Investors following energy stocks can follow energy stocks with news and commentaryby Karl Miller and several guest contributors in the new energy newswire and RSS feedat Investorideas.com. Subscribe here:http://www.investorideas.com/RSS/feeds/Energy.xml
Recent Karl Miller Articles:"Did You Miss the Biggest Buying Opportunity in Energy, Thursday May 6, 2010" by energyexecutive Karl MillerRead the full article published May 6th at Investorideas.com:http://www.naturalgasstocks.com/Karl_Miller/news/5071.aspMr. Miller also published "You Must Be Invested in the U.S. Equity Markets: Overweight onEnergy Producers and Utilities"http://www.naturalgasstocks.com/Karl_Miller/news/5051.aspKarl Miller model energy portfolio "Charitable Energy Stocks" on January 27, 2010. To see mymodel energy portfolio go to weblink:http://www.naturalgasstocks.com/Karl_Miller/news/1281.aspInvestors following the energy sector can also follow Karl Miller in the energy news RSS feed.Subscribe here:http://www.investorideas.com/RSS/feeds/Energy.xmlEnergy Investors can research energy stocks with the natural gas stocks directory:and the oil and gas stocks directory listing publicly traded stocks from multiple global stockexchanges including TSX, ASX, OTC, NASDAQ and NYSE.Green and alternative energy investors can research stocks with the Renewable Energy StocksDirectory, one of the most comprehensive directories online. The directory has over 900 stocksand new stocks are added each month for investors following the sector. The directory is nowavailable to investors in PDF format.Investors also have the option to access the directories as part of the Investor IdeasMembership premium content of 11 stock directories and investor newsletter. Join InvestorIdeas in the 2010 Campaign - One Million Members Stronger - Learn more about becoming amemberAbout InvestorIdeas.com:InvestorIdeas.com is a leading global investor and industry research resource portal specializedin sector investing covering investing in water, mining, renewable energy, energy, biotech,defense and global markets including China, India, Middle East and Australia. The websitecovers several sectors but has a focus on environment and water. Investorideas.com meets theneeds of retail investors, public companies and entrepreneurs with unique tools and servicesranging from stock directories, newsfeeds, funding directories and more.Disclaimer: Our sites do not make recommendations. Nothing on our sites should be construedas an offer or solicitation to buy or sell products or securities. We attempt to researchthoroughly, but we offer no guarantees as to the accuracy of information presented. AllInformation relating to featured companies is sourced from public documents and/ or thecompany and is not the opinion of our web sites. This site is currently compensated by featuredcompanies including Indigo-Energy, Inc. (OTCBB: IDGG), news submissions and onlineadvertising. www.InvestorIdeas.com/About/Disclaimer.asp
Karl Miller Disclaimer: http://www.naturalgasstocks.com/Karl_Miller/This column, Energy Commentary from Karl Miller, is the opinion of Karl Miller. Content found inthe articles is subject to the terms found in the InvestorIdeas.com disclaimer and does notrepresent a recommendation of investment advice by Mr. Miller. Investors should seek theadvice of a qualified investment professional prior to making any investment decisions.About the Author:Mr. Miller is currently on medical leave but has agreed to contribute his energy market opinionsand views to Investorideas.com. Mr. Miller has agreed to provide his market opinions andviews for public interest and does not receive any compensation for his commentary.Mr. Miller is a globally recognized energy executive and institutional investor with a balance ofboth financial and energy sector expertise. Mr. Miller began his career on Wall Street duringthe 1980s and has an extensive background in banking, commodities trading and riskmanagement.Mr. Miller is acclaimed for multiple ground breaking market calls and investments, including theU.K switching from a net gas exporter to a net gas importer in 2000, called the Californiaenergy crisis in 2001, called the Ethanol and Bio diesel boom and bust in 2007, called therenewable energy boom and bust cycle underway in 2008, and most recently called the revivalof natural gas in the United States in 2009.Mr. Miller has a long history in the global energy business and has held a variety of executivemanagement positions both within the United States, Europe and Asia. Mr. Miller has bid onover $25 billion in energy related assets during his career.Mr. Miller has built, restructured and managed energy businesses for major public energycompanies on several continents, including PG&E Corporation, Electricite de France, El PasoEnergy, Enron Corporation and JPMorgan Chase.Mr. Miller holds an MBA in Finance from the Kenan-Flagler Business School at The Universityof North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Mr. Miller also holds a B.A. in Accounting from CatholicUniversity located in Washington DC.