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PolkWP_CC1324F_StrategicQuestionsAutoBusinessPlanners-201212

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Transcripts - PolkWP_CC1324F_StrategicQuestionsAutoBusinessPlanners-201212

  • 1. ©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners   WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012
  • 2. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 1©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic Questions for Automotive Business Planners Preview Whether  you  are  an  analyst,  economist,  investor,   paper  provides  you  with  answers  to  highly  relevant   As  many  original  equipment  suppliers,  vehicle   enter  their  annual  planning  and  investment  cycles,   companies.   and  other  industry  decision-­‐ and  interpret  and  apply  VIN   ,  contact  us   at  www.polk.com www.polk.com/knowledge.       Business  Factor(s)  Addressed 1 2 3 Business  expansion 4 5 6 and  retail  planning 7 changed  in  recent  years.  What  is  the  impact  on  auto   8 9 intelligence 10
  • 3. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 2©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners in  the  BRIC  (Brazil,  Russia,  India,  China)  countries,   emerging  markets  (including  BRIC  countries)  will   What  to  Consider     New  vehicle  demand  growth  in  BRIC  countries  will   1 ,  an  amount  which  is     emerging  markets  while  increases  in  developed   emerging  markets  (including  BRIC  countries)   volume  growth.  The  segments  most  likely  to   realize  growth  in  emerging  markets  are  small   emerging  markets  in  the  next  10  years.     Mercedes-­‐Benz.   While  the  BRIC  countries  represent  the  greatest     Impact   in  emerging  markets  such  as  China  at  the  expense   quality  vehicles.     Increasingly,  vehicles  sold  in  emerging  markets     strategies  to  target  emerging  markets  as  their       grew  in  mature  Western  markets  over  the  past   two  decades.     Increasingly,  new  vehicle  development  and   processes  as  a  means  to  leverage  niche  strengths   1 1   38.0% Global  Growth Emerging Markets BRIC * 15.0% CTG* 85.0% CTG* 63.4% CTG* Mature Market Market  Share  for   BMW  and  Mercedes-­‐ Benz  Among  Emerging   Markets
  • 4. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 3©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners vehicle  growth  and  it  will  remain  the  largest  and   What  to  Consider   in  2011  sales  dropped  to  a  mere  1  percent  growth     inner  provinces.     The  Chinese  market  remains  extremely   2020. Impact   Automakers  and  suppliers  with  Chinese     impact  segment  demand.  For  example,  the   capacity.     plants  in  countries  like  Brazil,  Russia,  Bulgaria  or   Turkey,  Chinese  automakers  will  strengthen  their     already  made  an  impact  on  many  products  in  the   2     Brazil     China     India     Russia Outlook  for  China
  • 5. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 4©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners What  to  Consider   assigns  quotas  to  every  company  that  wants  to   import  vehicles  to  Venezuela  and  also  limits  the   Chávez  sympathizes  with,  such  as  China  and  Iran.   with  governmental  approval.     Venezuela.   and  conduct  research  and  development  in  Brazil.     sold  in  Chile  thanks  to  several  trade  agreements.       3
  • 6. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 5©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners The  recent  Mexican  electoral  campaign  was   cartel  leaders.  Peña  Nieto  also  promised  to  hire  Óscar   What  to  Consider     linked  to  authoritarian  and  corrupt  governments     2012. Impact OEMs: Americas  and  Europe.  The  current  scenario  is  likely   Suppliers agreement  with  Brazil,  Mexico  must  increase  the   Polk  expects  Mexico  to  reach  the  1  million  vehicle   years  to  come. What  to  Consider   Car  sales  in  Western  Europe  (W.E.)  will  realize   schemes.   Central  and  Eastern  Europe  (C.E.E.)  will  likely   C.E.E.  will  struggle  to  realize  sales  volumes  in     4 What  can  change  in  Mexico  with  the  new   5 What  is  the  outlook  for  the  European   Figure  8:  Wholesale
  • 7. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 6©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners Impact experiencing  recovery  in  2012,  European  results   Three-­‐Scenario  Outlook   Base  scenario:   markets  to  decline,  however  at  a  slower  pace  than       Worst  case  scenario What  to  Consider   Despite  the  annual  growth  rate,  the  impact  on   small.       6 What  are  the  current  trends  in  powertrain
  • 8. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 7©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners         period.   Impact     Unless  consumer  acceptance  increases  or   slow  to  make  a  major  impact  on  total  vehicles   electric  vehicles).  At  this  point,  such  powertrains   typically  come  at  a  premium  cost.  As  a  result,     much  quicker  and  parts  and  service  providers   What  to  Consider   Vehicle  quality  has  improved,  which  has  extended           environment.  Higher  credit  score  requirements   vehicle  prices,  have  undermined  new  sales  growth. 7
  • 9. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 8©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners Impact         presents  challenges  to  suppliers  who  are  required   require  suppliers  to  order  and  inventory  chips   What  to  Consider     Union.   Canada,  on  the  other  hand,  has  lost  its  share       For  example,  in  the  year  2000,  the  Detroit  Three   reduce  their  exposure  to  currency  exchange  rate     8
  • 10. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 9©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners Impact   responding  to  the  mantra  “never  let  a  crisis  go  to   As  a  result,  many  automakers  and  suppliers  are   decades.   demand-­‐driven  growth  as  automakers  have     Gradual  volume  growth  versus  spikes  in  demand       automakers  with  goals  to  expand  market  share   loyalty  metrics. What  to  Consider     owns  a  vehicle  has  an  adverse  impact  on     that  over  100  new  vehicle  launches  and  major   Impact   product  planning  (e.g.,  “what  do  my  customers   among  customers  using  the  dealership’s  service   9
  • 11. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 10©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners   Most  vehicles  on  the  road  have  oil  service  indicator   lights  to  alert  the  driver  that  an  oil  change  is  needed.   the  reminder  light  is  the  only maintenance  needs  without  the  driver  having  to   as  this  community  heavily  relies  on  maintenance   What  to  Consider   and  Canada  over  the  past  decade.     2011  model  year  vehicles.     While  slightly  lower  in  Canada,  the  use   comparing  2000  to  2011  model  year  vehicles.   Impact   when  directly  reminded  via  in-­‐vehicle  alerts.     providing  oil  change  services  who  also  depend  on   changed.     repair  shops  will  have  to  work  more  diligently  and   10
  • 12. WHITE  PAPER  |  DECEMBER  2012 11©  2012  R.  L.  Polk  &  Co.  All  rights  reserved.  |  www.polk.com Strategic  Questions  for  Automotive  Business  Planners Polk  is  the  premier  provider    Polk   data,  and  provides  extensive   help  customers  understand  their   agencies  and  market  research   Australia,  Canada,  China,  France,     www.polk.com. About Polk in  the  light-­‐,  medium-­‐  and  heavy-­‐duty  categories,  we   provides  independent  research,  insights  and   analyses  and  insight  needed  to  get  a  clear  picture   on  helping  our  clients  retain  their  customers  through

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