Summer Outlook
Cooling Season
2014
1
 Looking Ahead to Summer 2014
 Market pressure points: demand, economy, weather,
storage & production
 Wild card factor...
Understanding the Symbols
3
Upward market pressure
Flat market pressure
Downward market pressure
Market Pressure Points
2014
4
Last Summer
2013 ACTUAL
This Summer
2014 FORECAST
Actual season:
6% cooler than 2012
5% warmer than 30-year average
1,293 ...
6
Summer Season Last Summer
Period-to-period change 2013
Data source: IHS Global Insight ACTUAL
Summer
2014
FORECAST
Econo...
7
Summer Season Last Summer
Period-to-period change 2013
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; EVA ACTUAL
S...
8
Note: 2010, 2011 and 2012 denote very hot summers. Coal-to-gas switching in 2014 is forecasted. Source: EVA, May 2014
Po...
9
Source: Energy Ventures Analysis, Outlook for Natural Gas Demand for the Summer of
2014, Exhibit 14 “New U.S. Generation...
10
Total = 4.7 BCF/DAY
Majority of Industrial Growth Occurs in
Fertilizer, Gas-to-Liquids Sectors
Growth by industrial app...
11
Storage/Demand
Summer Season
Period-to-period change
Data source: EIA, EVA
Last Summer
2013
ACTUAL
Summer
2014
FORECAST...
12
Note: 2014 is estimated.
Source: EIA and EVA, 2014
Storage Injections 2003-2014
Record-breaking Storage Injections Proj...
13
Source: EIA and EVA, 2014
Total = 4.4 Tcf
Two-thirds of Storage Near Consumers
Producing Region Characterized by Flexib...
14
Summer Season
Period-to-period change
Data source: EIA, EVA
Last Summer
2013
ACTUAL
Summer
2014
FORECAST
Summer average...
15
Summer Outlook: Wild Cards
 Hot summer could increase electric demand
 End to California drought /mild summer could
d...
16
Summer Season
Period-to-period change
This Summer
2014 FORECAST
Weather
Economy
Overall demand
Storage
Overall supply
S...
17
Summary
 Increase in natural gas supplies supporting continued
industrial and electric growth
 Natural gas serving de...
Summer Outlook
Cooling Season
2014
18
NGSA Staff Contact:
Daphne Magnuson
dmagnuson@ngsa.org
of 18

Natural Gas Supply Association Summer 2014 Outlook

A series of slides from the NGSA that shows, in essence, they believe the short-term summer price for natural gas in the U.S. to rise over last summer because of depleted stores of natural gas. It will take extra capacity to bump up the "gas in storage" and because of the increased demand, the NGSA says the price will tick up.
Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: News & Politics      Business      Technology      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Natural Gas Supply Association Summer 2014 Outlook

  • 1. Summer Outlook Cooling Season 2014 1
  • 2.  Looking Ahead to Summer 2014  Market pressure points: demand, economy, weather, storage & production  Wild card factors  Summer expectations  Summary 2014 Summer Outlook: Outline 2
  • 3. Understanding the Symbols 3 Upward market pressure Flat market pressure Downward market pressure
  • 4. Market Pressure Points 2014 4
  • 5. Last Summer 2013 ACTUAL This Summer 2014 FORECAST Actual season: 6% cooler than 2012 5% warmer than 30-year average 1,293 Cooling degree days 1% warmer than last year 6% warmer than 30-year average Summer-to-summer pressure on natural gas prices 5 Source: NOAA forecast map, May 2014 1,306 Cooling degree days Weather Demand: Summer SeasonData source: NOAA, EVA
  • 6. 6 Summer Season Last Summer Period-to-period change 2013 Data source: IHS Global Insight ACTUAL Summer 2014 FORECAST Economy Fell short of expectations Expanding GDP growth 1.8% 2.4% Unemployment rate 7.4% 6.5% Manufacturing 2.4% 3.6% CPI 1.5% 2.0% Consumer Sentiment Index 81.6 86.5 Summer-to-summer pressure on natural gas prices Pressure Point: Economy/Demand
  • 7. 7 Summer Season Last Summer Period-to-period change 2013 Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; EVA ACTUAL Summer 2014 FORECAST Total Demand  Industrial demand  Electric demand  Residential/commercial 60.2 Bcf/d 19.4 Bcf/d 23.8 Bcf/d 11.4 Bcf/d 60.4 Bcf/d 20.3 Bcf/d 23.1 Bcf/d 11.4 Bcf/d Change from previous year +0.3% Growth sector Residential/ Commercial Industrial Summer-to-summer pressure on natural gas prices Overall Gas Demand/Consumption
  • 8. 8 Note: 2010, 2011 and 2012 denote very hot summers. Coal-to-gas switching in 2014 is forecasted. Source: EVA, May 2014 Portion of Electric Demand Attributable to Coal-to-Gas Switching Follows Price
  • 9. 9 Source: Energy Ventures Analysis, Outlook for Natural Gas Demand for the Summer of 2014, Exhibit 14 “New U.S. Generation Capacity” Steady Growth in New Natural Gas-fired Generation Capacity 2010-2015
  • 10. 10 Total = 4.7 BCF/DAY Majority of Industrial Growth Occurs in Fertilizer, Gas-to-Liquids Sectors Growth by industrial application 2010-2019 Source: Energy Ventures Analysis, 2014
  • 11. 11 Storage/Demand Summer Season Period-to-period change Data source: EIA, EVA Last Summer 2013 ACTUAL Summer 2014 FORECAST Season starting point (billion cubic feet) 1,687 Bcf 826 Bcf Average weekly injections 68 Bcf 83 Bcf projected End-of injection season 3,816 Bcf 3,400 Bcf projected Summer-to-summer pressure on natural gas prices
  • 12. 12 Note: 2014 is estimated. Source: EIA and EVA, 2014 Storage Injections 2003-2014 Record-breaking Storage Injections Projected
  • 13. 13 Source: EIA and EVA, 2014 Total = 4.4 Tcf Two-thirds of Storage Near Consumers Producing Region Characterized by Flexible Salt Dome Storage
  • 14. 14 Summer Season Period-to-period change Data source: EIA, EVA Last Summer 2013 ACTUAL Summer 2014 FORECAST Summer average production 66.6 Bcf/d 68.5 Bcf/d Canadian imports (net) 5.0 Bcf/d 5.0 Bcf/d LNG imports 0.3 Bcf/d 0.3 Bcf/d Mexican exports -1.8 Bcf/d -1.9 Bcf/d Summer-to-summer pressure on natural gas prices Production/Supply
  • 15. 15 Summer Outlook: Wild Cards  Hot summer could increase electric demand  End to California drought /mild summer could decrease electric demand  Very active hurricane/storm season
  • 16. 16 Summer Season Period-to-period change This Summer 2014 FORECAST Weather Economy Overall demand Storage Overall supply Summer 2013-to-summer 2014 Pressure on natural gas prices This Season’s Summer Outlook
  • 17. 17 Summary  Increase in natural gas supplies supporting continued industrial and electric growth  Natural gas serving demand and storage needs at record pace  Fuel switching persists for sixth straight summer -- but retreats to 2010 levels
  • 18. Summer Outlook Cooling Season 2014 18 NGSA Staff Contact: Daphne Magnuson dmagnuson@ngsa.org

Related Documents