3rd wave 2015
Political Opinion Barometer
36
Pressreport
2Contents
Contents
1. Technical specifications
2. Main results
Press report based on the results of the Political Opinion ...
3
Technical specifications
Press report, Public Opinion Barometer (BOP). 3rd wave 2015
1
4Technical specifications
Summary
Scope: Catalonia
Univers: Spanish citizens of 18 years of age and more who live in Catal...
5
Sample size:
2,000 interviews with the following territorial distribution:
• Barcelona 800
• Girona 400
• Lleida 400
• T...
6Technical specifications
Methodological note:
1. Some trend figures presented in this abstract refer to a telephone surve...
7
Main results
Press report, Political Opinion Barometer (BOP). 3rd wave 2015
2
8
Do you think that Catalonia has achieved...
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 29
Political values
Relations between...
9
Do you believe that Catalonia should be...
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 30
Political values
Press Report, BOP....
10
Do you believe that Catalonia should be...
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 30
Political values
Press Report, BOP...
11
And more precisely, “Do you want Catalonia to become an independent State?”
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 31
P...
12
And more precisely, “Do you want Catalonia to become an independent State?”
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 31
P...
13
If elections to the Catalan Parliament were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would
you vote for?
(N=2,000; ...
14
Question 59
Electoral behavior
Perceptions of the elections to the Catalan Parliament
Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015
...
15
Question 62
Electoral behavior
Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015
What do you think will be most important when deciding ...
16
(N=2,000; simple response; %;)
Question 39
Electoral behavior
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote intentio...
17
How would you define yourself in political terms, according to the following classification?
Electoral behavior
Press R...
18Appendix 1
Cross-tabulation of vote recall and vote intention to the elections of the Parliament of Catalonia.
Press Rep...
19
Elections to the Catalan Parliament
BOP-3rd wave (October)
Direct vote intention Vote estimate
Sits estimate
Results 20...
of 19

Political Opinion Barometer Catalonia - 3rd Wave 2015

Political Opinion Barometer Catalonia - 3rd Wave 2015 Source: CEO Date: 13.11.2015.
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: News & Politics      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Political Opinion Barometer Catalonia - 3rd Wave 2015

  • 1. 3rd wave 2015 Political Opinion Barometer 36 Pressreport
  • 2. 2Contents Contents 1. Technical specifications 2. Main results Press report based on the results of the Political Opinion Barometer. 3rd wave 2015 Corresponding to the Register of Opinion Studies number 804 Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015
  • 3. 3 Technical specifications Press report, Public Opinion Barometer (BOP). 3rd wave 2015 1
  • 4. 4Technical specifications Summary Scope: Catalonia Univers: Spanish citizens of 18 years of age and more who live in Catalonia Method of data collection: Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) Sampling procedure: Stratification by province and town size, with selection of last sample units (individuals) using sex, age and place of birth crossed quotas. Town size is divided into 6 categories: • less or equal to 2,000 inhabitants • from 2,001 and 10,000 inhabitants • from 10,001 and 50,000 inhabitants • from 50,001 and 150,000 inhabitants • from 150,001 and 1,000,000 inhabitants • more than 1 million inhabitants To calculate the quotas we use the official statistics from the Padró continu de població from the year 2014. The age quotas correspond to the following intervals: • 18 to 24 years of age • 25 to 34 years of age • 35 to 49 years of age • 50 to 64 years of age • 65 and more years of age Level of confidence: 95% Variance p=q=50% Sample size: 2,000 individuals Sampling error: + 2.69% Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015
  • 5. 5 Sample size: 2,000 interviews with the following territorial distribution: • Barcelona 800 • Girona 400 • Lleida 400 • Tarragona 400 Allocation: Not proportional. To obtain representative figures for the whole Catalan population, the results have been weighted by the following territorial weights: • Barcelona 1.8650318387 • Girona 0.4675226517 • Lleida 0.2841606232 • Tarragona 0.5182530476 Sampling error: The overall margin of error of the survey is + 2.69%, for a confidence level of 95% (1.96 sigma) and under the assumption of maximum indetermination (p=q=50%). In each province the margins of error are: • Barcelona + 3.46% • Girona + 4.90% • Lleida + 4.90% • Tarragona + 4.90% Fieldwork: The fieldwork has been performed by Opinòmetre, from the 5th to the 27th of October 2015. Technical specifications Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015
  • 6. 6Technical specifications Methodological note: 1. Some trend figures presented in this abstract refer to a telephone survey (CATI) performed in December 2014, the Survey about the Catalan political situation, 2014. 2. Given that we have only drawn a sample from the population (those over 17 years of age, living in Catalonia and with Spanish citizenship), all results are subject to a sampling error, meaning that not all the differences in the same questions in other waves of the Barometer are statistically significant. For instance, in a survey question where the 50 % (the worst case scenario in terms of the margin of error) gives a particular response, with a sample of 2,000 interviewees, it is 95% sure that the “true” value in the population falls into the range of +2,69 of the results in the sample, this is, in between 47.31% and 52.69%. The subsamples in two-way tables are subject to an even larger margin of error. Therefore, the conclusions that could be drown have to be taken with caution. 3. When presenting results of questions 37 and 38 we have grouped the different political parties or coalitions from the point of view of parlamentary groups appeared after the 27th of September elections to the Catalan Parliament. The results of this grouping are: Junts pel Sí = CDC + ERC + Junts pel Sí Catalunya sí que es pot = ICV-EUiA + Podemos + Barcelona en comú + Catalunya sí que es pot Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015
  • 7. 7 Main results Press report, Political Opinion Barometer (BOP). 3rd wave 2015 2
  • 8. 8 Do you think that Catalonia has achieved... (N=2,000; simple response; %) Question 29 Political values Relations between Catalonia and Spain Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 4,3 25,0 65,0 4,8 1,0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Too much autonomy A sufficient level of autonomy An insufficient level of autonomy Does not know Does not answer 4,9 3,9 5,2 5,0 4,9 4,1 3,3 2,7 3,1 3,3 3,6 4,0 5,0 3,1 3,9 3,8 5,1 4,9 3,4 3,3 4,6 4,6 4,4 4,4 3,3 3,9 3,8 4,6 3,9 2,3 2,6 5,5 3,9 3,0 4,3 31,0 34,5 35,9 37,4 31,0 29,4 28,1 28,9 26,2 31,8 27,9 29,0 27,2 24,6 28,0 28,4 31,2 29,9 29,1 26,5 28,0 24,0 26,0 23,9 21,3 18,6 19,2 19,1 20,6 24,2 21,7 21,7 23,9 28,0 25,0 57,5 52,8 52,4 51,6 57,5 60,3 61,6 62,6 65,3 61,4 62,7 62,0 63,7 68,1 62,0 60,8 59,0 60,5 61,8 65,9 62,0 66,5 65,3 65,7 68,4 71,6 71,2 72,5 70,4 66,6 69,2 64,0 64,1 63,0 65,0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Març.06 Jul. 06 Oct. 06 Nov. 06 Març 07 Jul. 07 Oct. 07 Nov. 07 Gen. 08 Abr. 08 Juny 08 Oct. 08 Gen. 09 Abr. 09 Juny 09 Nov. 09 Gen. 10 Abr. 10 Juny 10 Oct 10 Gen. 11 Juny 11 Oct 11 Feb.12 Juny 12 Oct. 12 Feb.13 Juny 13 Nov. 13 Març 14 Oct. 14 Des. 14 Feb. 15 Juny 15 Oct. 15 Too much autonomy Sufficient Insufficient
  • 9. 9 Do you believe that Catalonia should be... (N=2,000; simple response; %) Question 30 Political values Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 3,7 27,4 22,2 41,1 4,2 1,4 0 10 20 30 40 50 A region of Spain An Autonomous Community of Spain A State within a federal Spain An independent State Does not know Does not answer 8,1 6,9 8,3 6,8 6,1 5,5 4,7 5,1 3,8 5,1 6,1 7,1 4,5 4,4 6,2 5,9 6,9 7,3 5,4 5,9 5,6 5,6 5,7 5,2 5,7 4,0 4,4 4,6 5,4 2,6 1,8 5,4 3,4 4,0 3,7 38,2 37,3 38,9 40,0 37,0 37,3 35,0 37,8 34,8 38,9 37,0 38,3 38,6 34,9 36,8 37,0 38,2 35,2 33,3 34,7 33,2 31,8 30,3 27,8 25,4 19,1 20,7 22,8 18,6 23,3 23,4 21,8 24,0 29,327,433,4 34,1 32,9 32,8 35,3 34,0 34,2 33,8 36,4 33,4 34,7 31,8 35,2 35,0 32,2 29,9 29,5 31,2 31,0 30,9 31,9 33,0 30,4 30,8 28,7 25,5 22,4 21,2 21,3 20,0 22,2 28,9 26,1 24,022,2 13,9 14,9 14,0 15,9 14,5 16,9 18,5 17,3 19,4 17,6 16,1 17,4 16,1 20,9 19,0 21,6 19,4 21,5 24,3 25,2 24,5 25,5 28,2 29,0 34,0 44,3 46,4 47,0 48,5 45,2 45,3 36,2 39,1 37,6 41,1 0 10 20 30 40 50 Març.06 Jul. 06 Oct. 06 Nov. 06 Març 07 Jul. 07 Oct. 07 Nov. 07 Gen. 08 Abr. 08 Juny 08 Oct. 08 Gen. 09 Abr. 09 Juny 09 Nov. 09 Gen. 10 Abr. 10 Juny 10 Oct 10 Gen. 11 Juny 11 Oct 11 Feb.12 Juny 12 Oct. 12 Feb.13 Juny 13 Nov. 13 Març 14 Oct. 14 Des. 14 Feb. 15 Juny 15 Oct. 15 A region of Spain An Autonomous Community of Spain A State within a federal Spain An independent State
  • 10. 10 Do you believe that Catalonia should be... (N=2,000; simple response; %) Question 30 Political values Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 A region of Spain 3,7 0,5 9,5 2,3 3,4 16,1 1,0 An Autonomous Community of Spain 27,4 2,2 65,3 45,9 24,6 72,3 2,9 A State within a federal Spain 22,2 11,0 20,5 47,3 54,5 9,6 15,7 An independent State 41,1 83,4 1,2 1,4 10,7 2,0 76,6 Does not know 4,2 2,5 2,2 3,1 5,1 0,0 2,8 Does not answer 1,4 0,4 1,2 0,0 1,6 0,0 1,0 Real base 2000 724 187 174 139 54 233 Weighted base 2000 632 215 199 178 54 238 (*) Non-significant resultats Catalonia-Spain relationship by vote recall to the Catalan Parliament
  • 11. 11 And more precisely, “Do you want Catalonia to become an independent State?” (N=2,000; simple response; %) Question 31 Political values Previous barometer Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 46,7 47,8 3,9 1,7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Yes No Does not know Does not answer 42,9 50,0 5,8 1,3 0 20 40 60 80 100 Yes No Does not know Does not answer
  • 12. 12 And more precisely, “Do you want Catalonia to become an independent State?” (N=2,000; simple response; %) Question 31 Political values Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 Yes 46,7 90,1 1,8 4,6 23,1 1,5 89,3 No 47,8 7,0 96,0 93,1 67,5 98,5 9,2 Does not know 5,8 2,5 1,6 1,3 8,4 0,0 0,7 Does not answer 1,3 0,4 0,6 0,9 1,0 0,0 0,8 Real base 2000 724 187 174 139 54 233 Weighted base 2000 632 215 199 178 54 238 (*) Non-significant results Vote recall to the Catalan Parliament
  • 13. 13 If elections to the Catalan Parliament were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would you vote for? (N=2,000; simple response; %;) Question 37 Electoral behavior Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote intention Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 32,3 12,4 9,8 9,1 2,8 13,6 1,6 1,2 0,3 7,0 7,9 2,2 29,55 13,36 9,50 6,67 6,34 6,13 2,71 0,40 0,29 25,05 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Junts C's PSC Cat pot PPC CUP Others Blank Null Will not vote Undecided Does not answer
  • 14. 14 Question 59 Electoral behavior Perceptions of the elections to the Catalan Parliament Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 The results of the recent elections to the Catalan Parliament generate multiple sensations. In a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means none and 10 a lot, with what intensity do you feel these feelings: (N=2,000; simple response; average) 5,41 5,07 4,77 4,75 4,74 2,28 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Hope Illusion Prudence Trust Uncertainty Fear
  • 15. 15 Question 62 Electoral behavior Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 What do you think will be most important when deciding your vote in the next elections to the Congreso de los Diputados? (N=2,000; simple response; %;) 47,0 33,4 13,3 1,2 3,0 2,1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 The proposals of each party to find a solution to the economic crisis The position of each party on the relationship between Catalonia and Spain Both Others Does not know Does not answer
  • 16. 16 (N=2,000; simple response; %;) Question 39 Electoral behavior Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote intention Previous barometer Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 In the next elections to the Congreso de los Diputados, convened the next 20th of December, what party or coalition would you vote for? 3,1 5,9 9,5 2,5 10,5 3,9 8,4 3,5 14,2 2,8 0,7 0,2 7,8 22,8 4,2 0 10 20 30 40 50 PPC ERC PSC ICV-EUiA C's CUP Podemos CDC Junts x Sí Others Blank Null Will not vote Undecided Does not answer 3,6 10,8 13,0 11,0 3,5 5,9 2,5 18,1 1,8 2,1 0,5 8,6 15,0 3,5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 PPC CiU ERC PSC ICV-EUiA C's CUP Podemos CDC Junts x Sí Others Blank Null Will not vote Undecided Does not answer
  • 17. 17 How would you define yourself in political terms, according to the following classification? Electoral behavior Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 Pregunta 46a+46b (ideology 1st and 2nd option; N=2000; multiple response; %) Independentist 30,0 66,2 0,1 1,2 5,8 0,0 55,5 Socialist 16,5 5,2 8,9 69,8 26,9 0,0 15,4 Progressive 14,9 14,7 11,1 10,0 36,9 3,4 25,2 Apolitical 12,6 6,6 12,8 8,6 5,3 10,8 8,1 Ecologist 11,5 10,4 11,1 6,3 22,8 0,0 21,2 Liberal 10,3 7,9 20,2 3,8 15,9 18,6 5,8 Socialdemocrat 8,7 8,6 15,8 16,0 10,7 0,0 2,2 Nacionalist 8,3 14,6 8,3 3,2 1,9 12,7 4,7 Conservative 8,3 7,6 15,6 1,3 1,6 55,2 1,7 Feminist 5,6 4,2 3,0 2,4 5,3 0,0 12,4 Christian-democrat 5,1 4,1 10,3 1,2 3,4 23,2 0,0 Communist 3,9 1,2 1,9 1,2 11,0 1,0 15,3 Others 2,9 1,8 4,2 0,2 3,6 1,5 3,5 Does not know 5,9 3,4 4,6 3,8 4,5 8,8 1,9 Does not answer 3,6 1,8 9,3 1,1 1,2 1,0 1,6 Real base 2000 724 187 174 139 54 233 Weighted base 2000 632 215 199 178 54 238 (*) Non-significant resultats Ideological self-definition by vote recall to the Catalan Parliament
  • 18. 18Appendix 1 Cross-tabulation of vote recall and vote intention to the elections of the Parliament of Catalonia. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015 Others/Null Blank (*) Did not vote Dk/Na Total 90,7 0,0 1,1 5,8 1,0 5,9 0,0 2,2 10,1 11,1 32,3 0,0 88,0 4,7 0,3 10,1 0,0 8,1 2,2 7,2 13,2 12,4 0,3 1,2 82,0 4,5 0,0 0,0 1,6 0,0 6,6 0,2 9,8 0,3 0,9 0,9 76,1 0,0 1,5 0,0 0,0 11,2 2,5 9,1 0,0 0,9 0,0 0,0 79,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 3,5 0,0 2,8 3,9 0,0 0,2 4,2 0,0 88,9 12,9 3,6 5,6 4,4 13,6 Others/Null 0,6 0,9 1,2 3,0 0,0 0,3 65,1 0,0 0,4 0,3 1,9 Blank 0,1 0,1 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 79,8 3,1 0,8 1,2 Will not vote 0,1 1,3 2,3 1,0 4,4 0,0 5,7 2,2 38,2 7,9 7,0 Dk/Na 3,9 6,7 7,3 4,9 5,2 3,4 6,5 10,1 14,1 59,4 10,0 Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 Real base 724 187 174 139 54 233 30 16 287 156 2000 Weighted base 632 215 199 178 54 238 33 13 302 137 2000 (*) Non-significant results Vote recall to the Catalan Parliament 2015 VoteintentiontotheCatalanParliament
  • 19. 19 Elections to the Catalan Parliament BOP-3rd wave (October) Direct vote intention Vote estimate Sits estimate Results 2015 (in %) (in % over valid vote) %VV sits Junts pel Sí 32,3 39,8 61-63 39,59 62 C's 12,4 18,0 24-26 17,90 25 PSC 9,8 10,6 14-15 12,72 16 CSQP 9,1 9,3 10-12 8,94 11 PPC 2,8 7,0 8-10 8,49 11 CUP 13,6 11,1 14-16 8,21 10 others 1,6 3,7 ---- 3,63 --- Blank vote 1,2 0,5 ---- 0,53 --- Null vote 0,3 Part. 70% Abstention (“will not vote"+“cannot vote") 7,0 Undecided 7,9 Does not answer 2,2 Appendix 2 Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2015

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