Economic Outlook Presentation to: Nasscom BPO Summit 2012and the Euro Crisis Date: ...
Global growth slows and US outperformsEurope... Global Growth (%) 6 4 2 0 -2 -4...
…and IMF has revised down outlook for nextyear… 2011 2012 2013World ...
What’s wrong in the euro area?... Few very competitive economies and many uncompetitive Wide divergence in growt...
Policy makers have responded… ECB adds over €1,000bn in  Tighter rules and surveillance 3-year funds to banks ...
Some euro members adjusting better thanothers… Change in Unit Labour Costs (2009-2012, %) 15 10 ...
DisclaimerThis document has been prepared by Bank of Ireland Global Markets (“GM”). This document is for informationalpurp...
NASSCOM BPO Summit 2012: Ear to the Ground: The Health of Global Economy & Impact on India
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NASSCOM BPO Summit 2012: Ear to the Ground: The Health of Global Economy & Impact on India

Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: Economy & Finance      Business      
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Transcripts - NASSCOM BPO Summit 2012: Ear to the Ground: The Health of Global Economy & Impact on India

  • 1. Economic Outlook Presentation to: Nasscom BPO Summit 2012and the Euro Crisis Date: 05.09.2012September 2012 Classification: GreenDan McLaughlinChief Economist
  • 2. Global growth slows and US outperformsEurope... Global Growth (%) 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 07q1 07q3 08q1 08q3 09q1 09q3 10q1 10q3 11q1 11q3 12q1 World US EuroClassification: Green 2
  • 3. …and IMF has revised down outlook for nextyear… 2011 2012 2013World 3.9% 3.5% 3.9%US 1.7% 2.0% 2.3%UK 0.7% 0.2%(looks too 1.4% high now)Euro 1.5% -0.3% 0.7%Classification: Green 3
  • 4. What’s wrong in the euro area?... Few very competitive economies and many uncompetitive Wide divergence in growth outlook across economies Sharp rise in sovereign debt Current recession exacerbating negative debt dynamics Fiscal retrenchment dampening demand Many banks need capital, imposing debt burden on State Fragmentation of monetary policy Euro has fallen but not far enoughClassification: Green 4
  • 5. Policy makers have responded… ECB adds over €1,000bn in  Tighter rules and surveillance 3-year funds to banks on fiscal policy in member ECB cuts repo rate to 0.75% states and may cut again  Pledge to run balanced ECB cuts deposit rate to zero budgets ECB will buy sovereign bonds  EFSF set up as „firewall‟ conditional on EFSF/ESM  Permanent support fund (ESM) buying  Direct support for banks ECB will not (so far) buy  Euro-wide bank regulator bonds by printing money (QE)  Euro-wide deposit insurance?  Mutualisation of debt?  BUT German Constitutional court decision needed on ESMClassification: Green 5
  • 6. Some euro members adjusting better thanothers… Change in Unit Labour Costs (2009-2012, %) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Germany Italy Euro Area Portugal Spain IrelandClassification: Green 6
  • 7. DisclaimerThis document has been prepared by Bank of Ireland Global Markets (“GM”). This document is for informationalpurposes only and GM is not soliciting any action based upon it. Any information contained herein is believed by theBank to be accurate and true but the Bank expresses no representation or warranty of such accuracy and acceptsno responsibility whatsoever, other than any responsibility it may owe to you under the European Communities(Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations 2007 as may be amended from time to time, for any loss or damagecaused by any act or omission taken as a result of the information contained in this document. No prices or ratesmentioned are bids or offers by GM to purchase or sell any currencies, securities or financial instruments. Except asotherwise may be specifically agreed, GM has not acted nor will act as a fiduciary, financial or investment adviserwith respect to any derivative transaction that it has executed or will execute. Any investment, trading and hedgingdecision of a party will be based on its own judgement and not upon any view expressed by GM. This documentdoes not address all risks related to the transactions described. You should obtain independent professional advicebefore making any investment decision. Any expressions of opinion reflect current opinions as at 20 th August 2012and are subject to change without notice. This publication is based on information available before this date. Thisdocument is property of GM. The content may not be reproduced, either in whole or in part, without the expresswritten consent of a suitably authorised member of GM staff.Bank of Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Bank of Ireland incorporated in Ireland with limitedliability. Registered Number - C-1. Head Office, 40 Mespil Road, Dublin 4, Ireland. Classification: Green 7

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