Is the Global Centre of Gravity
Shifting to Asia?
NASSCOM
8 October 2013
Dr. Parag Khanna
Senior Fellow, New America Found...
The World of the 1990s
China
European
Union
Japan
India
Today’s Global Marketplace
European
Union
Africa
South
America
North
America
Asia
Middle
East
Structural Economic Convergence Accelerates
Where is the Center of the World?
Asian Growth Stacks Up
2011 (USD Billions)
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
China
Total = 19 trillion USD
India...
Global Brain Flow: Expats and Repats
Old and New Production Centers
"Historical" market, which is losing
dominance (19th and 20th century)
Great growth market...
Leading Sectors and the Spread of Innovation
Sources: BrightHub, Scientific
American, Lux Research, World
Resources Insti...
The “New” New Thing
Country
Traditional Industries
New Industries
Philippines
Agriculture, shipbuilding
Electronics, ...
From “Brain Drain” to “Global Brain Flow”
USA
Scientific
Papers
Published
Patents Filed
New
Products/
Market
penetration
...
Recovering – and Rising – FDI Outflow
Top 20 Asian MNCs
Rank
Company
Global 500 Rank Country
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Sinopec Grou...
Huge increases in Chinese Overseas FDI
Asia’s New Iron “Silk Roads”
How$ the$
will$ new$ railroads$
silk$
affect$
Singapore?$
Investment/GDP Ratios Higher in
Asia
No.
Country
Year
Investment
(% of GDP)
1
China
2010
47.742%
2
Indonesia
201...
18.0
Infrastructure Investment Delivers Higher
Growth
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
GDP Growth Rate (...
Infrastructure & Jobs on top of the Global Agenda
ASEAN’s Growth Drivers
Urbanization
• 2-3% per
annum
urbanization
rate
• Mega-cities
and
commercial
centers
Demograhics
...
Japan Looks to ASEAN
Convergence of Policy Priorities
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Capital controls; currency devaluation
Long-term infrastructure investment...
Diplomacy without Unity
Can Asia Stay Stable?
China’s “String of Pearls”
This should have been answered by now
India Needs Better Navigation
Look West
Look East
India: States versus the State
The Future of Globalization (I)?
The Maersk Triple-E
The Future of Globalization (II)?
The 3D Printer
Competition Redefines Regions
Contact
PARAG KHANNA
paragkhanna@gmail.com
of 33

NASSCOM Engineering Summit 2013: Is the Global Centre of Gravity Shifting to Asia? - Parag Khanna, Geo Strategist

Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: Technology      Business      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - NASSCOM Engineering Summit 2013: Is the Global Centre of Gravity Shifting to Asia? - Parag Khanna, Geo Strategist

  • 1. Is the Global Centre of Gravity Shifting to Asia? NASSCOM 8 October 2013 Dr. Parag Khanna Senior Fellow, New America Foundation Senior Fellow, Singapore Institute of International Affairs Adjunct Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
  • 2. The World of the 1990s China European Union Japan India
  • 3. Today’s Global Marketplace European Union Africa South America North America Asia Middle East
  • 4. Structural Economic Convergence Accelerates
  • 5. Where is the Center of the World?
  • 6. Asian Growth Stacks Up 2011 (USD Billions) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 China Total = 19 trillion USD India Japan Australia ASEAN
  • 7. Global Brain Flow: Expats and Repats
  • 8. Old and New Production Centers "Historical" market, which is losing dominance (19th and 20th century) Great growth market (end of the 20th century / beginning of 21th century) Market growth and new establishment (21th century) Relocation Second Phase Relocation
  • 9. Leading Sectors and the Spread of Innovation Sources: BrightHub, Scientific American, Lux Research, World Resources Institute
  • 10. The “New” New Thing Country Traditional Industries New Industries Philippines Agriculture, shipbuilding Electronics, logistics, BPO Bangladesh Garment manufacturing Pharma, agro processing, ICT China Industry, agriculture Clean-tech, advance manufacturing, automotive, telecom India Food processing, industrial machinery, agriculture BPO/KPO, animation, pharmaceuticals, retail Singapore Shipping, logistics, refineries Bio-tech, advanced materials remanufacturing, water treatment, alternative energy
  • 11. From “Brain Drain” to “Global Brain Flow” USA Scientific Papers Published Patents Filed New Products/ Market penetration EU China Japan South Korea Israel India 2,967,957 3,712,570 719,971 770,252 254,599 108,706 266,230 490,226 125,774 391,177 344,598 170,101 7,306 34,287 IBM Nokia Huawei Canon Samsung Dexcel Pharma Infosys Microsoft Siemens Lenovo Toshiba LG TCS Teva Pharma Motorola SAP ZTE Sony Hyundai Intel Robert Bosch Panasonic Dongbu HP Ericsson Shenzhen Futaihong Precision Xerox Philips Innocom Technology Sharp Cipla dbMotion Qualcomm Honda Tata Motors Gamida Cell Ltd
  • 12. Recovering – and Rising – FDI Outflow
  • 13. Top 20 Asian MNCs Rank Company Global 500 Rank Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Sinopec Group China National Petroleum State Grid Toyota Motor Japan Post Holdings Samsung Electronics Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Hitachi JX Holdings Nissan Motor Hon Hai Precision Industry Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Honda Motor SK Holdings Panasonic Petronas Nippon Life Insurance China Construction Bank China Mobile Communications Indian Oil 5 6 7 10 13 20 29 38 41 42 43 54 64 65 66 68 74 77 81 83 China China China Japan Japan South Korea Japan Japan Japan Japan Taiwan China Japan South Korea Japan Malaysia Japan China China India Revenues ($ millions) 375,214 352,338 259,142 235,364 211,019 148,944 133,077 122,419 119,258 119,166 117,514 109,040 100,663 100,394 99,373 97,355 90,782 89,648 87,544 86,016
  • 14. Huge increases in Chinese Overseas FDI
  • 15. Asia’s New Iron “Silk Roads” How$ the$ will$ new$ railroads$ silk$ affect$ Singapore?$
  • 16. Investment/GDP Ratios Higher in Asia No. Country Year Investment (% of GDP) 1 China 2010 47.742% 2 Indonesia 2010 32.574% 3 Japan 2010 19.774% 3 Malaysia 2010 21.416% 4 Korea 2010 29.572% 5 United States 2010 15.836%
  • 17. 18.0 Infrastructure Investment Delivers Higher Growth 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 GDP Growth Rate (2010) % of GDP spent on infrastructure
  • 18. Infrastructure & Jobs on top of the Global Agenda
  • 19. ASEAN’s Growth Drivers Urbanization • 2-3% per annum urbanization rate • Mega-cities and commercial centers Demograhics • Average age: 27 • High female participation in education and workforce Connectivity • Over 20 regional airlines • High-speed rail network Investment • Infrastructure spending rates rising to approx. 8% • ASEAN Infrastructure Fund
  • 20. Japan Looks to ASEAN
  • 21. Convergence of Policy Priorities • • • • • • • Capital controls; currency devaluation Long-term infrastructure investment Industrial policy/national champions Net benefit laws Counter-cyclical fiscal policy (“stimulus”) Reducing Gini co-efficient/inequality Enhancing productivity/return on capital
  • 22. Diplomacy without Unity
  • 23. Can Asia Stay Stable?
  • 24. China’s “String of Pearls”
  • 25. This should have been answered by now
  • 26. India Needs Better Navigation
  • 27. Look West
  • 28. Look East
  • 29. India: States versus the State
  • 30. The Future of Globalization (I)? The Maersk Triple-E
  • 31. The Future of Globalization (II)? The 3D Printer
  • 32. Competition Redefines Regions
  • 33. Contact PARAG KHANNA paragkhanna@gmail.com

Related Documents