Paul McEldon
NEN Chairman
Welcome and introductions
Sue Hayes
Managing Director, Barclays Business Banking
Headline sponsor’s address
The Rt Hon Lord Young
Prime Minister’s Adviser on Enterprise
Keynote speaker
Frances Brindle
Director of Audiences, British Library
The Rt Hon Michael Fallon MP
Minister of State for Business and Energy
Ministerial address
Refreshments and networking break
Andrew Devenport
CEO, The Prince’s Youth Business International (YBI)
Why networks are important
Andrew Devenport, Chief Executive,
YBI – a global network
France, Israel, Italy,
Netherlands, Poland, Russia,
Serbia, Spain, Sweden,
Ukraine, UK
Canada
, Bar...
The power of a
network
Global
Entrepreneurship
Week 2013
We want current and aspiring
entrepreneurs to take a step
forward in their plans –
wheth...
Real life entrepreneurs
Rekha Mehr
Business owner: Pistachio Rose
www.pistachiorose.co.uk
@pistachiorose / @rekhamehr
Mark Earnden
Business owner: Mark Earnden
www.markearnden.com
@markearnden
Phil Pethybridge
Business owner: Neon Street and Your Music Business
www.neonstreet.net / www.yourmusicbusiness.co.uk
@ppe...
Phil Pethybridge
Industry: ‘Build audiences
and maximise income’
Education: 'Support
young musicians to
develop sustainabl...
Real life entrepreneurs
Q&A
Lunch and networking
Annual General Meeting
NEN Members only
Justin Urquhart-Stewart
Co founder, Seven Investment Management
NATIONAL
•ENTERPRISE
•NETWORK
NOVEMBER 2013
GLOBAL GROWTH •EFFECT
•ON UK?
NOVEMBER 2013
GREEN SHOOTS
•OR ADVANCED
•MOULD
30
Green Shoots or Advanced Mould?
31
REAL GROWTH...
Consensus forecasts for Real Global GDP growth
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
2.8%
2.6%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
2013
2014
Sour...
THE TAPIR & THE PANDA
Vs.
33
BUT COMING OFF THE
STIMULANTS....
‘PRO-GROWTH’ POLICIES: QE
SOURCE: MACROBOND
CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEETS
35
USA - HOW TO KICK THE CAN......
36
UNDERSTANDING THE “FISCAL CLIFF”
PUT IN BETTER PERSPECTIVE
 U.S. Tax Revenue:
$2,170,000,000,000
 Fed Budget:
$3,820,00...
UNDERSTANDING THE “FISCAL CLIFF”
NOW LET’S REMOVE EIGHT ZEROS & PRETEND IT’S A HOUSEHOLD BUDGET...
 Annual Family Income...
USA
Growth Easing?
Employment rising slowly
Corporate Earnings
Peak
Fiscal Fudge &
Sequester
Housing improving
Lower ...
GAME CHANGER?
US DEFICIT REDUCTION
42
A DIVIDED VIEW – Can He Do It?
EUROZONE
The Future of the
Euro
ECB
buying bonds
Austerity & Growth?
German election?
A decade ago
12% umplymt
Company...
MERKEL’S DIRECTION FOR
CYPRUS
45
EUROPE – EMERGENCY OVER?
46
FRANCE AND GERMANY - A UNITED APPROACH?
47
Ezone Current A/c balances
November 13
“For the use of authorised intermediaries
only. This document must not be
distrib...
UNIT LABOUR COST DIVERGENCE REVERSING
GERMANY NEEDS EUROPE
•Exports 40% to EuroZone, 31% to rest of Europe, 6% to China and 7% to USA!
SOURCE: MACROBOND
50
EUROPE – WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY?
SOURCE: BANK CREDIT ANALYST
51
GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
IN THE COURSE OF 2013 & 2104
IS THE EURO WEAK?!
GBP
USD
53
UK
Sustainable Growth?
Fixing the Banking
system
No Power &
Transport Strategy
Debt & Deficit
Tax Reform?
World’s
8th...
Confident in our Leaders?
55
Break Up & Float or Float & Break Up
56
UK PMI SERVICES
SOURCE:
57
UK NEGATIVES
Real Wage growth still negative
SOURCE:
58
UNDERSTANDING our debt
 Annual Family Income:
£612
 Money the family spent:
£720
 New debt on the Credit Card:
£108
 O...
UK ISSUES
 “Re-shoring” – Noodles
 Cars more exports than domestic production
 Steel
• Blast furnaces
• Top end Sheffi...
DAMAGED
•NOT
•DOOMED
61
GOVERNMENT DEFICIT
UK ANNUAL GOVERNMENT BORROWING
2011 = £94 billion
SOURCE: DATASTREAM
UK GROWING EMPLOYMENT 91.8%
Full-time
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
Part-time
Total
UK HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO GDP
SOURCE: MACROBOND
64
What That Means?
 We each owe:
 For each employed person
 Interest per household:
2 taxes?
VAT £98bn
Income/NI £253b...
UK – DAMAGED NOT DOOMED!
 A very British attitude! vs How others see us
 Unemployment improving
 Retail Sales
 Housing...
DYNAMIC ACTIONS?



Tax modernisation – 14,000 pages
Stamp Duty?
3/5 Year Start Up Holiday?
– National insurance
– Em...
THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD
...the Bank of England concurs:
INFLATION LIKELY TO STAY LOW IN THE MID-TERM
SOURCE: BANK OF E...
JAPAN
Islands Dispute
Trade Turnaround
Debt 220%+ of GDP
New Premier
Abe - nomics
Yen Weakness
Nappy Sales
JAPAN REFLATION
Japan Core inflation
SOURCE;: REUTERS
70
BROKEN BRICS?
China
Change of Life
Brazil
Valuations?
India
flat
Russia
Rule of law?
South Africa
Political issues
Tu...
THE NEW LEADERSHIP
A SOUTH CHINA SEA SORE
SLOWING GROWTH IN EM
EM GDP GROWTH
Has the West’s “Get Out of Jail Free” card finally vanished?
SOURCE: IMF WORLD ECONOMI...
TAIL RISKS
Renewed
Eurozone panic
Independence
- Impact on gilts &
Sterling
US debt ceiling /
default
Japan debt crisis...
KEY RISKS TO THE VIEW
EUROZONE PROGRESS?
CHINA CHANGE of LIFE
UK SULLEN GROWTH
US DEBT, DEFICIT & DEMAND
YOU ARE NEEDED NOW
THANK YOU
JUSTIN A URQUHART STEWART
Dr Nicola Millard
Customer Experience Futurologist, BT
Paul McEldon
NEN Chairman
Closing the 2013 Conference
Thank you for your participation today –
please join us for networking drinks!
National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference
of 82

National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference

On Friday 15th November, the National Enterprise Network was joined by almost 230 delegates at its annual conference at the British Library in London for an event to celebrate the work of enterprise support organisations and the results they achieve for business start-ups and established small businesses across the country. Sponsored by Barclays, the National Enterprise Network conference has run for over twenty years to raise awareness of and encourage discussion in the enterprise support sector. An excellent array of speakers created an insightful and thought provoking programme – with direct contributions form key Government spokespeople, leaders in related fields and successful entrepreneurs. Missed it? Check out Storify - http://storify.com/NatEntNet/2013-national-enterprise-network-conference
Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: Business      Economy & Finance      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference

  • 1. Paul McEldon NEN Chairman Welcome and introductions
  • 2. Sue Hayes Managing Director, Barclays Business Banking Headline sponsor’s address
  • 3. The Rt Hon Lord Young Prime Minister’s Adviser on Enterprise Keynote speaker
  • 4. Frances Brindle Director of Audiences, British Library
  • 5. The Rt Hon Michael Fallon MP Minister of State for Business and Energy Ministerial address
  • 6. Refreshments and networking break
  • 7. Andrew Devenport CEO, The Prince’s Youth Business International (YBI)
  • 8. Why networks are important Andrew Devenport, Chief Executive,
  • 9. YBI – a global network France, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, UK Canada , Barbados Belize Dominica, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda Bangladesh, Bhutan, Mongolia China, Hong Kong, Singapore India, Sri Lanka Australia 39 countries, locally rooted and locally led Shared values, shared purpose, shared approach
  • 10. The power of a network
  • 11. Global Entrepreneurship Week 2013 We want current and aspiring entrepreneurs to take a step forward in their plans – whether that’s starting a business, seizing a new opportunity or finding out more about careers in enterprise. www.gew.org.uk #GEWfwd
  • 12. Real life entrepreneurs
  • 13. Rekha Mehr Business owner: Pistachio Rose www.pistachiorose.co.uk @pistachiorose / @rekhamehr
  • 14. Mark Earnden Business owner: Mark Earnden www.markearnden.com @markearnden
  • 15. Phil Pethybridge Business owner: Neon Street and Your Music Business www.neonstreet.net / www.yourmusicbusiness.co.uk @ppethybridge / @neonstreet / @ymbuk
  • 16. Phil Pethybridge Industry: ‘Build audiences and maximise income’ Education: 'Support young musicians to develop sustainable careers’
  • 17. Real life entrepreneurs Q&A
  • 18. Lunch and networking
  • 19. Annual General Meeting NEN Members only
  • 20. Justin Urquhart-Stewart Co founder, Seven Investment Management
  • 21. NATIONAL •ENTERPRISE •NETWORK NOVEMBER 2013
  • 22. GLOBAL GROWTH •EFFECT •ON UK? NOVEMBER 2013
  • 23. GREEN SHOOTS •OR ADVANCED •MOULD 30
  • 24. Green Shoots or Advanced Mould? 31
  • 25. REAL GROWTH... Consensus forecasts for Real Global GDP growth 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 2013 2014 Source: FT November 13 32
  • 26. THE TAPIR & THE PANDA Vs. 33
  • 27. BUT COMING OFF THE STIMULANTS....
  • 28. ‘PRO-GROWTH’ POLICIES: QE SOURCE: MACROBOND CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEETS 35
  • 29. USA - HOW TO KICK THE CAN...... 36
  • 30. UNDERSTANDING THE “FISCAL CLIFF” PUT IN BETTER PERSPECTIVE  U.S. Tax Revenue: $2,170,000,000,000  Fed Budget: $3,820,000,000,000  New debt: $1,650,000,000,000  National debt: $16,699,000,000,000  Recent Budget cuts: $38,500,000,000
  • 31. UNDERSTANDING THE “FISCAL CLIFF” NOW LET’S REMOVE EIGHT ZEROS & PRETEND IT’S A HOUSEHOLD BUDGET...  Annual Family Income: $21,700  Money the family spent: $38,200  New debt on the Credit Card: $16,500  Outstanding Balance on that Card: $166,990  Total Budget cuts so far: $38.5
  • 32. USA Growth Easing? Employment rising slowly Corporate Earnings Peak Fiscal Fudge & Sequester Housing improving Lower Cost Fuels
  • 33. GAME CHANGER?
  • 34. US DEFICIT REDUCTION 42
  • 35. A DIVIDED VIEW – Can He Do It?
  • 36. EUROZONE The Future of the Euro ECB buying bonds Austerity & Growth? German election? A decade ago 12% umplymt Company Valuations Low Confidence
  • 37. MERKEL’S DIRECTION FOR CYPRUS 45
  • 38. EUROPE – EMERGENCY OVER? 46
  • 39. FRANCE AND GERMANY - A UNITED APPROACH? 47
  • 40. Ezone Current A/c balances November 13 “For the use of authorised intermediaries only. This document must not be distributed to retail clients.” See notes on 48
  • 41. UNIT LABOUR COST DIVERGENCE REVERSING
  • 42. GERMANY NEEDS EUROPE •Exports 40% to EuroZone, 31% to rest of Europe, 6% to China and 7% to USA! SOURCE: MACROBOND 50
  • 43. EUROPE – WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY? SOURCE: BANK CREDIT ANALYST 51
  • 44. GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER IN THE COURSE OF 2013 & 2104
  • 45. IS THE EURO WEAK?! GBP USD 53
  • 46. UK Sustainable Growth? Fixing the Banking system No Power & Transport Strategy Debt & Deficit Tax Reform? World’s 8th Largest Manufacturer &...
  • 47. Confident in our Leaders? 55
  • 48. Break Up & Float or Float & Break Up 56
  • 49. UK PMI SERVICES SOURCE: 57
  • 50. UK NEGATIVES Real Wage growth still negative SOURCE: 58
  • 51. UNDERSTANDING our debt  Annual Family Income: £612  Money the family spent: £720  New debt on the Credit Card: £108  Outstanding Balance on that Card: £1,153  Total Budget cuts so far: £35
  • 52. UK ISSUES  “Re-shoring” – Noodles  Cars more exports than domestic production  Steel • Blast furnaces • Top end Sheffield steel  10th largest exporter  Non EU exports now higher than EU
  • 53. DAMAGED •NOT •DOOMED 61
  • 54. GOVERNMENT DEFICIT UK ANNUAL GOVERNMENT BORROWING 2011 = £94 billion SOURCE: DATASTREAM
  • 55. UK GROWING EMPLOYMENT 91.8% Full-time 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 Part-time Total
  • 56. UK HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO GDP SOURCE: MACROBOND 64
  • 57. What That Means?  We each owe:  For each employed person  Interest per household: 2 taxes? VAT £98bn Income/NI £253bn £17,603 £38,736 £1,921
  • 58. UK – DAMAGED NOT DOOMED!  A very British attitude! vs How others see us  Unemployment improving  Retail Sales  Housing – Deficit 11% to 8% 2011/12 – Corporate cash £750bn – Co. Confidence index 62.4 – 66.1 – Employment – Investment
  • 59. DYNAMIC ACTIONS?    Tax modernisation – 14,000 pages Stamp Duty? 3/5 Year Start Up Holiday? – National insurance – Employment – Investment relief – Infrastructure Projects & Bonds – House building – Peer To Peer Lending Initiatives
  • 60. THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD ...the Bank of England concurs: INFLATION LIKELY TO STAY LOW IN THE MID-TERM SOURCE: BANK OF ENGLAND 68
  • 61. JAPAN Islands Dispute Trade Turnaround Debt 220%+ of GDP New Premier Abe - nomics Yen Weakness Nappy Sales
  • 62. JAPAN REFLATION Japan Core inflation SOURCE;: REUTERS 70
  • 63. BROKEN BRICS? China Change of Life Brazil Valuations? India flat Russia Rule of law? South Africa Political issues Turkey On the Cusp
  • 64. THE NEW LEADERSHIP
  • 65. A SOUTH CHINA SEA SORE
  • 66. SLOWING GROWTH IN EM EM GDP GROWTH Has the West’s “Get Out of Jail Free” card finally vanished? SOURCE: IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SEPTEMBER 2013
  • 67. TAIL RISKS Renewed Eurozone panic Independence - Impact on gilts & Sterling US debt ceiling / default Japan debt crisis Major conflict Chinese credit November 13 “For the use of authorised intermediaries only. This document must not be distributed to retail clients.” 75
  • 68. KEY RISKS TO THE VIEW EUROZONE PROGRESS? CHINA CHANGE of LIFE UK SULLEN GROWTH US DEBT, DEFICIT & DEMAND
  • 69. YOU ARE NEEDED NOW
  • 70. THANK YOU JUSTIN A URQUHART STEWART
  • 71. Dr Nicola Millard Customer Experience Futurologist, BT
  • 72. Paul McEldon NEN Chairman Closing the 2013 Conference
  • 73. Thank you for your participation today – please join us for networking drinks!

Related Documents