Planetary limits
and Biospheric science
An executive briefing overview of humankind is
unfolding trajectories, impacts, ...
This presentation is a courtesy of
What Eve1_'1 Citizen Should Know
About Our Planet
Titre
ll Weesllcaop
Piroajeett
fia...
This presentation addresses dangerous patterns of population dynamics including
classical real-world examples of overshoot...
‘7.,5g1i'i* 'CiuI, i‘
DieaIr:1roig: r”a: piIa: i:c
li: t:eararc‘y
The U. N.'s newest
"high-fertility"
population projections
would canry us to
16.6 BILLION
by 2100
SOIJIJ Br:
...
1 along its 8- mu yet by 2011 we had further
15,5 —: £3 . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..
I Q N...
F, ’ ’ i Z L‘)
Blow Large is a i“: ’il]lIi‘; ’i<ii>i: n? ‘S
I-1 -
l'l EACH of the billions we are adding is VERY,
l ...
I 11 E
1..
Blow Large fis a Efillllfionr?
H
‘
EACH of the billions we are adding is l"ERl'.
l’ERl. ' VERY. VERY LAR...
The answe": To complete the above project at a rate of I 00 pages per day,
five days a week. 52 weeks per year would re...
That is how man additional eo le we are
adding
to our lanet ev 12-15 ears —
Am/ {/1111 is 11‘/7.1‘ Earth ,3‘ / )...
Six other quick summary reasons why the
population-growth numbers in this graph
are catastrophically important
...
See addenda andlinks for more
Despite assertions to the contrary, in actual numerical planetary and biospheric terms
ou...
4.
As humans learned rather dramatically
at the close of World War H, numbers
skyrocketing upward along the y-axis
of a ...
I66 ‘I
The U. N.'s newest
I
I
I
I
I
I
I 12
"high-t'eniIity' I
population pivojectiom I 11-
would cany us to I...
6.
It is important to appreciate that
there is a second classical outcome
of population J -Curves
and these OTHER class...
(1) Scheffer, VB. , 1951. The rise and fall of a reindeer
herd, Scientific Monthly 73:356-362
(2) Klein, D. R., 1968. ...
In a similar classic study of a “boom-and-bust” population explosion Scheffer (1951)
followed a population of reindeer on ...
And now we have been conting'x_1g
to increase our numbers by one
additional bi/ /ion
evm twelve years
Each number CEJ...
In addition,
recent U. N. Medium-and-high
fertility World Population Projections
show trajectories toward world
populati...
_LL iunuurm nu: -. ~ it
, =). 'iin'a'Itl'—
K
/ .
K . i
If you have doubts about this, see our footnote (slide 61...
o
I-1
9‘
9|
J
We note that biologically-smaking, mg g
even approaching 16.6 billion by
the end of this ...
7_ Earth’s biospheric life-support systems (poor little things) never took a statistics course —
so they think that we hum...
Did we mention that as
flaeurxwes
sh/ locket umard
along their ‘y-axes’
they have a rather decided
tendency to flatten an...
Thus, the numbers seen here
(together with their resulting
eradications, damage, and Wastes)
pose threats to the
on...
10.
Check for yourself: The authors of various “demographic-transition” / ”s-curve” depictions that have
become so fashi...
‘ ‘i}'iq”’ii‘: ’. f: .iwa:
The
“V’a1s1l: -lo+pxe: m;—-stprzitcze’
DIE-llll‘»llS‘: iL(l)Il’fl
This image summarizes three
examples of population
“too-late”
2l1000th ol 4 ' 7 , ‘ ‘ .
WW3,“ ‘waited too-lon conditi...
2/1000Ins oi
one percent
Classical "too-late‘
population oonditions7
{en t’
in surroundings that
remain 99.998% unocc...
211 000th: :2!
one percent
Classical “too-late"
population conditions?
in surroundings that
remain 99.998% unoocugigg?...
2/10000:: cl
one percent
Classical "too-late‘
population conditions?
-
: ——jj—'
in surroundings that
remain 99.998% ...
Vast-amounts of open-space?
2/10DDths ol
one percent
Classical "too-late"
population conditions?
l
1 «ref: —
‘ in s...
2/ 1 OODIHS of
one percent
— = —__j_,
Classical "too-late“
population conditions?
"
In surroundings that
remain 9...
:_ - _- 4.’.
Imagine, flien, that any of the three populations constituted a
sentient and intelligent species.
: -
I ...
th-
' $-
1“!
All three classical examples that we
cite powerfully suggest that our
instincts, suppositions, and
assump...
The organisms in all three classical
examples had already waited too—long $7‘
= :.““f»"~“
Because so much ‘open-space’ W...
Part Three
In 1986 Garrett Hardin compared ‘L7’: i1Li’: py/ imlg to
“. . . an engineer’s estimate of the carrying capacity of a bri...
Carrying Capacity
What should we know about . : ‘ - ‘E
And which sorts of things in particular? I‘
. .—
E I J Our pla...
Carrying Qapvacfity
What should we know about . : ‘ -
And which sorts of things in particular?
. n—
l ( ' i Functional ...
And this planetary carpi-. r'3fi1gea, ';)a: <:ity for a modem and
industrialized humanity, with a prpsperous standard of l...
‘But, is also a matter of dam I e, wastes,
dismantlements, and sheer eradications
/
Carrying ‘Capacity
OTHER examples of limiting factors include
, , ’
V. / :
¥ _________________________________...
In appraising photographs of Earth taken from distant
reaches of our solar system astronomer Carl Sagan
observed that @ o...
’. ,—_—. . . . 1 Wipe a wet paper towel across
_x. , the surface of an oflice globe,
-_. ‘ . A i x r, /-? '.' and the ...
This amazing thing called life, therefore, is
&t just a phenomenon on a
tiny blue-dot in the vastness of space,
but i...
Since ecosystems are finite in their
size and resources, each has an
I to the population that it
’ '7 can support while ...
Examples of crucial ecological
services include each day’s
production and rgplacement of
most of the molecular 02 that
w...
Other ecological services include, for instance,
Pollination of vast percentages
of flowering plants everywhere,
...
Carrying ‘Capacity
When considering the “carrying capacity” of our planet » - ,
and its biospheric life-support machiner...
Let us contemplate, therefore, several
TlllPli”, iDlW4‘l3Rllil‘: l i
2%)
to envision the implications of damage...
As an initial exercise, imagine familiar finite vehicles
such as a sacecraft, an aircraft, or elevators
that have ca...
Imagine an elevator, for example, that can
safely accommodate E passengers
and yet Q or E or 1058 passengers
begin t...
Thus, as more and more people board an elevator (or an
airplane, or a vehicle, or a planet) of limited capacity,
I...
As a second thought-experiment,
imagine our planet as a global bus
If a bus has enougl_1 seating for
50 passengers,
‘ ...
A similar unsettling scenario can be envisioned
if one imagines an aircraft of finite size,
only to notice that a line...
. It is easy I0~lIll(l€1'STflI1Cl that the
’ I stresses of excessive loading
virtually ensure failures in one
or more compo...
Imagine a team of astronauts in a space vehicle if they were to
damage or portions of their vehicle
(1) 93% Of (3) 87% of...
As a further thought—experi1nent suppose that the owner of a new and
pristine automobile begins to randoml derade its mult...
And at the same time, this individual introduces massive, ever-growing, and
ever-accumulating quantities of contaminant...
And then suppose that this individual cannot
understand why his automobile
which “has always worked in the past, ”
...
Not so bri ht is he?
Do we know anyone who seems to treat
the only planetary life-szipport machiner_i'
so for known to exist anywhere in
t...
of course, would ever d1'ean1)of '
inflicting such damage upon the ,
vehicle thatsustains their‘ ‘ ; _s-
lives in space
.2
I J And the rest ofus
< would never dream of
i icting such damage upon
an autorrlob ile
or upon an airplane or a li...
v ' t
the ONLY planetgflife-: "v
supggrt rfiachingry
so far tdétist;
anywhere in piiiverse
_ _ ; ,r. - H ,
__; ~...
as it has alwagp done"
: 'ari‘d‘-to‘ pxesuinethat it will
' ,
ofunction
v-.
mm
/Q, 7
“l‘§/ —/"l~i'%-—<
" i, |Iiug, iI"
3L. '1pnvi, ".‘| IIt= -ill’ '
As a fourth thought experiment,
imagine a it-...
Clearly, however, a policy of
sag'1_)g small representative
. ~mu. ,ut-. x of a patient’s cells,
tissues, and organs
...
- ‘V!
7 The 0bV'1011S defect in a
5‘ E? “ “representative samples" approach is
$5 .
'‘ Wit that it does not contemplate...
Notice that each of our thought-experiments seems to powerfizlly suggest — over
and over and over again - that current pol...
It is thus important to appreciate
that cgy’ capacity in - —-
biological and biospheric systems
routinely contemplates ...
Next, to close this section, we ofier a disquieting one-slide overview
,1,‘
Concerning humankind is endless, growin...
._IA_. __. _-A4
Worse than outbreaks of
calfinoflagelllate redltftdle?
Worrisorne: Because as we release wastes into our...
Part Four
Limits, ©versh®®t,
amt] Gsflflapse
A quick review and a few closing thoughts
There are thousands of examples of
Limits.
Thresholds,
‘W’ Tipping points
that exist in natural, real-world, and bio...
h‘; ’ I
‘_ '. Ever-more crowding, damage’.
, _‘_ and eradications invite transgression
4., ‘ i of one or multiple crit...
Examine the dominoes in the image below whi ch, while exhibiting
a kind of stability, do so in a tempo@ and pr_'ecarious...
If the FIRST domino is mistakenly tipped, notice that it can cause
all the others to also fall in quick and unstoppable s...
Let us consider, for instance, two samples of
THRESHOLDS in real-world natural systems
First, an example in a biologic...
:L, In a physical system at standard pressure, a container of
hot water at g: i._" ,7 degrees gx'-ud'L‘1l»: II is fnvli...
Meanwhile wanning oceans have the potential to unlock STILL MORE
gigatons of methane currently stored in frozen muds on oc...
Wliut about stlppnsititms that "tcclitiolngy. " 01' "im cntix cticss. “ "i1111mL1tin11.~. ‘
"inge1u1it}. ” "f1'cc 1n:11'l<...
Suppose that we cure disease
or make significant advances in
life-extension.
Does that mean that we
simu/ taneozls/ v in...
Suppose, for a moment, that
science develops advances
in food production
Does that mean that we
have increased our plan...
Remember our list of sixteen examples. ..
(1) lmssll
(10) Limits to a syste1n’s capacity
, (2) Wastes l! for sel...
Damages, Wastes, and Enaelfieetfiens
. “.‘—_ Vb, .. ». ,
Environmental Ex" igi ? ‘gp‘ acities m necessarily center o...
No rational astronauts would ever dream of inflicting such
damage upon the vehicle that sustains their lives in space,
...
But we somehow seem to suppose that we can inflict such damage
T: av’
upnntlie-()NLY ‘
p| :ilii—'l’; —it‘y
lil'e~si1ppni...
When there are” icebergs” out there
(limits, thresholds, and tipping points)
shouldn't the passengers on the vessel 1 e...
Appendices
and supporting mathematics
N
s
3
Q
2
Z
§
§
9
at
s
2
i
Q
3’
3
5
§
5
E
oi
>.
E
as
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-- Dinanaions source: Unhaarslly olMid1‘qan Museum otzoology - A...
Supporting mathematics 1 —
Outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide A (Population blooms of Karenia brevis)
Population mass m...
worldpgpttlation alamities
131 near ydempty
Supporting Math
uonments
The image shown left depicts the physical a...
fiiuprplorrtiingg rnrartilniea ': 1 miles
In world population was
growing larger by
extra persons per year; and
later, ...
Biologically-speaking, and from the perspective of functioning biospheric systems,
it is probably on the order of roughl...
Shouldn ’t professors share this presentation and its information with their students
and with the enormous rising gen...
Did you know that the officers ofthe passenger liner Titanic received six separate and specific
warnings of ice during the ...
Population Dynamics of Limits, Overshoot, and Collapse
Population Dynamics of Limits, Overshoot, and Collapse
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Population Dynamics of Limits, Overshoot, and Collapse

An open-courseware PowerPoint overview of humankind's worldwide population growth, Earth systems and planetary limits, and dangerous overshoot and classical climb-and-collapse outcomes in real-world population systems. Addresses carrying capacity, limits, and limiting factors, and a worldwide human population that has been growing by one additional billion after another and another (five added billions just since 1930 and headed toward 11, 12, 13, 14, 15. or 16.6 billions by 2100) - together with the implications of our damage, wastes, dismantlements, and sheer eradications of the only planetary life-support machinery so far known to exist anywhere in the universe. A quick biospheric literacy executive-summary overview for academia and policymakers and for all first-year undergraduates of every major, and one of seven ppts and seven executive-summary pdfs that seek to summarize and encapsulate the core "Biospheric Literacy and Sustainability 101" data sets, principles, and understandings that comprise What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet.
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Environment      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Population Dynamics of Limits, Overshoot, and Collapse

  • 1. Planetary limits and Biospheric science An executive briefing overview of humankind is unfolding trajectories, impacts, and implications
  • 2. This presentation is a courtesy of What Eve1_'1 Citizen Should Know About Our Planet Titre ll Weesllcaop Piroajeett fiaejnlnemie Literacy M01 [I is (’lIII'I‘(’/ >"/ i‘(’(’y/ ii/ ‘ rm’ by . 'c'i'z’IiIi'. 'I. : . 'IIl(/ (’lII. '. l/ lI(/ (’(/ l[('(/ I0/‘. ' (/ lI_'lt‘/ I(’I‘(’ iii [/78 lt‘()I’/ (/
  • 3. This presentation addresses dangerous patterns of population dynamics including classical real-world examples of overshoot and climb-and-collapse outcomes Demographic literacy (slide #4) . Real-world die-offs (slide #25) in largely ‘empty’ environments I. 2 3. Carrying capacity and limiting factors (slide #35) plus ecosystem services 4 5 . Limits, overshoot, and collapse (slide #72) classical real-world examples . Appendices, links, and supporting math (slide #88 ) Together with addenda containing links, references, and supporting mathematics
  • 4. ‘7.,5g1i'i* 'CiuI, i‘ DieaIr:1roig: r”a: piIa: i:c li: t:eararc‘y
  • 5. The U. N.'s newest "high-fertility" population projections would canry us to 16.6 BILLION by 2100 SOIJIJ Br: Six quick summary reasons why the population-growth numbers in this graph are catastrophically important First, each of the S in this J-curve graph is a very, very, very, very large number And we have been adding ANOTHER billion to our worldwide numbers every 12-to-15 years
  • 6. 1 along its 8- mu yet by 2011 we had further 15,5 —: £3 . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. I Q Notice that it took I , all 0 human histo ' Secondly, this graph is E until 1930 ' mm° E ‘I for us to reach : 11- : a world population of I 10- TWO billion I ‘. '''n 1' And E are mckefin J E 9_ ml . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . . . I I 5' increased worldwide population by FIVE MORE billions _ in less than a single human lifetime
  • 7. F, ’ ’ i Z L‘) Blow Large is a i“: ’il]lIi‘; ’i<ii>i: n? ‘S I-1 - l'l EACH of the billions we are adding is VERY, l l/ FR}: VERY, VERY LARGE l’ - , V. ‘ , ll I115). I333" E. " AEKLTVEGE EVCH 01,1119 Pllllom "-9 919 9991113 13 I. F.‘r€l' Ejjtozn “%’aEZa‘ are a E33®ILUQ§
  • 8. I 11 E 1.. Blow Large fis a Efillllfionr? H ‘ EACH of the billions we are adding is l"ERl'. l’ERl. ' VERY. VERY LARGE Imagine that you have been chosen for a well-remunerated position as Editor of a one-billion-page Encyclofija of Theoretical Physics. You are required, however, to steadily advance your project by reviewing, proofieading, editing, correcting, and publishing its volumes at a rate ofl00 pages per day, five days per week, sg weeks per year. Working at the above rate, how much time will be needed [or you to complete your project?
  • 9. The answe": To complete the above project at a rate of I 00 pages per day, five days a week. 52 weeks per year would require 3 8,46 1 years If you initiated such a project 20, Yea“ 380 (when ice was still 2 km thick over parts of the northern hemisphere, when wooly mammoths still roamed the Earth, and when people still lived in caves), And you worked conscientiously and unfailingly for each and ever; y__i_vee1cday from then until now You would have to continue working for 1 additional years into the fiiture in order to complete your project
  • 10. That is how man additional eo le we are adding to our lanet ev 12-15 ears — Am/ {/1111 is 11‘/7.1‘ Earth ,3‘ / )i(). s'[)/1c/ ‘ic /1.‘f'c—. 'ul17[)()rl IIl£l('/ Il. Il(’I‘_' ix /7rcu/ dug
  • 11. Six other quick summary reasons why the population-growth numbers in this graph are catastrophically important The U. N.'s newest : "high-fertility" _ 3 . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... E population projections: I 11- " . .. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . . . . . ", - "’l‘:5“: S‘l§[3£'E’l: ‘)5‘b: ° ‘ m_ 1. Our graph is a J-cuive and up until I ‘by 2 I00 . _ 1 ' now the two most famous J—curves ‘~ . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 ‘ 1°41 1 in an of human history have both 8 - 2025 been atomic detonations 7 — 2:111 I 6- w 5 _ 1987 : . . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ., ‘ E 2. We are (and have been) adding one 4- 1975 : . . . . _ billion additional people to our planet 3 — 1960 every 12-to-15 years _ mm W 1 _ E . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..
  • 12. See addenda andlinks for more Despite assertions to the contrary, in actual numerical planetary and biospheric terms our rate of worldwide human population growth is faster now than it was back in 1981 In real-world M - IJ'NMANIPULA'I'ED planetary ‘ r I and biospheric ‘terms '_ _ ‘ ’ humank1'nd’s rate of _ _ / worldwide population ' ‘N“¥‘§'‘_: ’ growth is faster now than it was back in 1981 1 81 —World population 4.5 billion and growing by §_£ million extra per year ; O_1_1 —World population , and growing by Q million §)_(fl_§. _ per year
  • 13. 4. As humans learned rather dramatically at the close of World War H, numbers skyrocketing upward along the y-axis of a J-CURVE have demonstrated a rather pronounced capacity to flatten and obliterate. EVERYTHING around themselves in everv direction.
  • 14. I66 ‘I The U. N.'s newest I I I I I I I 12 "high-t'eniIity' I population pivojectiom I 11- would cany us to I 16.6 BILLION } 1"- by 2I00 E , _ ,0“ E 8- 2015 ' 7- 1011 5' 1222 5- rim 4- rim 3- mm 2 - mo Slllllc 1-1330 5. These numbers constitute the g[_ eatest single risk that our sgecies has ever undertaken and are the demographic and biospheric equivalent of a collision trajectory with a near-earth asteroid
  • 15. 6. It is important to appreciate that there is a second classical outcome of population J -Curves and these OTHER classical outcomes are known as climb-and-collapse E33?ESEESQ! !!IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIHIIIIIII The ubmc gI‘; I])Il I'cI‘Icct. dulu I‘I'uI1I li> L'ILI, IL‘tlI III; IIiIIII; IIiIm popiiluliuii ll| LIIC. III Imlh mscx. U‘. lL‘II pupLI| II1iuII f. ’l'tlI1‘. l exponential, Illll . l IIl‘| l. I1mvvI'. II1IIIIc«II. I1cI} lk»IImnII1_ Ll fl% die-off
  • 16. (1) Scheffer, VB. , 1951. The rise and fall of a reindeer herd, Scientific Monthly 73:356-362 (2) Klein, D. R., 1968. The Introduction, Increase, and Crash of Reindeer on St. Matthew Island, Journal of Wddlife Management 32:350—367, and Climb-and-colla se §§3§§§E£§§§§§§§§EBi§§§flfiiiiiiiiiillilil In both cases, each population’s growth was exponential, but was then, however, immediately followed by a fl%-plus die—off
  • 17. In a similar classic study of a “boom-and-bust” population explosion Scheffer (1951) followed a population of reindeer on St. Paul island, 1910 to 1950. The island had no wolves, predators. or major competitors so that the reindeer population exhibited approximately 28 years of relatively unrestricted and unfettered growth (see graph on previous two slides). The herd’s initial phase of exponential growth, however. was followed by a catastrophic die-ofi' or collapse in which 99% of the herd died out by the close of the study. It is important to note that the herd occupied less than 2/1000"“ of one percent of the area that appeared to remain theoretically-available as their collapse began, so that the die-ofl took place even when “vast amounts at open space ” remained seemingly available (99.998% unoccupied) In a similar way, elevators and aircraft have characteristic weight thresholds which, for safe operation, should not be transgressed. Biologists also sometimes use the term "thresholds to refer to limits that, when exceeded, constitute critical boundaries in a system. As Soule (1985) observes, "Many, if not all, ecological processes have thresholds. . . ." and points out that "genetic and demographic processes" also have thresholds (ibid).
  • 18. And now we have been conting'x_1g to increase our numbers by one additional bi/ /ion evm twelve years Each number CEJTIES with it enormous unpacts and biospheric implications
  • 19. In addition, recent U. N. Medium-and-high fertility World Population Projections show trajectories toward world populations of ILJZRILJE °r. T-5.5 fire by the close of this century (And that is if there are no astounding advances in life-extension)
  • 20. _LL iunuurm nu: -. ~ it , =). 'iin'a'Itl'— K / . K . i If you have doubts about this, see our footnote (slide 61) and check for yourself. g_x_“L, |[ Inrlltyulllllx VI ‘:1 xi gunk] J-curve y / ‘/'hiCl1 n1a' be important. perhaps. net up until now, the two most famous J—cuI= vés in all ofhuman histg , ' ' have both been mo_m .
  • 21. o I-1 9‘ 9| J We note that biologically-smaking, mg g even approaching 16.6 billion by the end of this cenh_ny constitutes the demographic and hiosp/ writ‘ equivalent of a collision rra[ecr0n' IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIU.
  • 22. 7_ Earth’s biospheric life-support systems (poor little things) never took a statistics course — so they think that we humans are 2.5 billion more numerous than we were in 1981 and that we humans are growing taster NOW (and imgacting them more now), than we were back then For instance, never having taken a statistics course, our planet’s poor little biospheric life-support systems THINK that they are ec‘perz"encing gr0*i112, ever-xvi dening, ever-more severe, and CV61‘-ElCCl1Illl1lElll112 damages. wastes, and eradications and think that they are experiencing ever-increasing obliteration of the machinery they use to survive, fimction, and carry out self-maintenance, self-perpetuation, and self-repair.
  • 23. Did we mention that as flaeurxwes sh/ locket umard along their ‘y-axes’ they have a rather decided tendency to flatten and obliterate evflhing around themselves in every direction?
  • 24. Thus, the numbers seen here (together with their resulting eradications, damage, and Wastes) pose threats to the only planetary life—support machinery so far known to exist anywhere in the universe and seriously threaten the fiitures of today’s enormous rising generations of Under-20s - and their planet, and their children
  • 25. 10. Check for yourself: The authors of various “demographic-transition” / ”s-curve” depictions that have become so fashionable in recent decades are only able to achieve their s-curve depictlons by beginning their graphs in some recent decade such as the 19505, bringing them up to the present, and projecting several more decades into the future based upon their own hopes, wishes, guesstimates, and suppositions. We note that in science, however, it is not generally permissible to OMIT 9,900 years of data in order to force-fit one’: data set into a more desirable theoretical outcome.
  • 26. ‘ ‘i}'iq”’ii‘: ’. f: .iwa: The “V’a1s1l: -lo+pxe: m;—-stprzitcze’ DIE-llll‘»llS‘: iL(l)Il’fl
  • 27. This image summarizes three examples of population “too-late” 2l1000th ol 4 ' 7 , ‘ ‘ . WW3,“ ‘waited too-lon conditions (rouglily 2/1000*‘ of fl occupied and which , appeared to remain almost entirelv ‘e1npIV‘) Classical "too-late" ' ' population conditions? <. J —* with 98%-plus die-offs —— and/ or even worse mass mortalities — in environments that remain in surroundings that 99.998% unoccupied remaln 99.998% unoccuglgg? - - ’— T 1 L7 , __
  • 28. 2/1000Ins oi one percent Classical "too-late‘ population oonditions7 {en t’ in surroundings that remain 99.998% unoccupE7 _ The three classical references that we cite are: (1) Schelfer, V. B., 1951. The rise and fall of a reindeer herd, Scientific Monthly 73:356-362 (2) Klein, D. R., 1968. The Introduction, Increase, and Crash of Reindeer on St. Matthew Island, Jouma] of Wildlife Management 32:350-367, and (3) Bushaw-Newton, KL. and Sellner, K.G. 1999. Harmful Algal Blooms IN: NOAA’s State of the Coast Report, Silver Spring, MD. Two of these occurred in mammals, and the third occurred in a typical ‘ outbreak of red-tide ‘ in one-celled marine organimns i M _, __ l
  • 29. 211 000th: :2! one percent Classical “too-late" population conditions? in surroundings that remain 99.998% unoocugigg? p. s. To approximate Q/1000ths offl in familiar terms, imagine a circle about twice the diameter of a baseball on an otherwise empty basketball court The image shown left shows that a population residing in such “too-late” / “Waited-too-long” surroundings mi ghr perceive such conditions to remain almost entirely empty
  • 30. 2/10000:: cl one percent Classical "too-late‘ population conditions? - : ——jj—' in surroundings that remain 99.998% unoooupi_e_q? In all three of the classical real-world examples that we cite, the “'I'INYWHI'I'E DOT” moment in time depicted here approximates their population MAXIMA and the last remainipg moments preceding mass mortalities and a sudden plunge to a value approaching zero F__________________ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I n__________________ And ALL THREE of these classical real-world examples occurred in environments that remained roughly 99.998 % unoccupied and Which, visually speaking, appeared to remain AMOST ENTIRELY EMPTY
  • 31. Vast-amounts of open-space? 2/10DDths ol one percent Classical "too-late" population conditions? l 1 «ref: — ‘ in surroundings that remain 99.998% unoccupfl? The tiny-white dot moment in time shown here constitutes too-late / Waited-too-long conditions This image thus invalidates one of humankind’s seemingly instinctive - but erroneous - suppositions that assumes or imagines or supposes that somehow, a population must surely and magically remain blissfully “safe” as long as there seems to remain plenty of open-space? We see here, however, that by the tiny-white-dot 2/1000ths of fly moment in time shown in this image all three of the classical populations which are summarized and referenced here (a) Had already reached their population maxima and (b) Their numbers collapsw (e. g. 98%-plus die-offs) were either about to begin — or were already well-underway
  • 32. 2/ 1 OODIHS of one percent — = —__j_, Classical "too-late“ population conditions? " In surroundings that remain 99.998% unoccuiaiid? For the real-world populations summarized and referenced here to avert calamity, it was already “too-late” and they had @131 —
  • 33. :_ - _- 4.’. Imagine, flien, that any of the three populations constituted a sentient and intelligent species. : - I At the moment in time denoted by E the tiny white dot, which (if any) I I I of even their brightest scholars and , most thopghtfiilleaders """""""""""""""""" " 31%“; . I" """""" '7'"? """" "i C %7 E ‘could have imagined that E I it was alrea too. -late and E ’ I __________________________ _. I F """ "7 """""" "I “Mm, ” E that their numbers had E EMJNM ml I / ' E already peaked E ' - or could have imagined either the ‘proximity or the degree of the 99%-plus die-offs, and. /or even-worse mass mortalities that were already at hand?
  • 34. th- ' $- 1“! All three classical examples that we cite powerfully suggest that our instincts, suppositions, and assumptions that imagine relative population-environment security or invulnerability in ‘vast open-space’ conditions may very well represent erroneous and exceedingly dangerous suppositions inducing us to underesfimate both the proximig and the degree of the dangers that our current trajectories portend
  • 35. The organisms in all three classical examples had already waited too—long $7‘ = :.““f»"~“ Because so much ‘open-space’ WW. _ E>m-W remained seemingly-available, ;fi<~““”' ““““‘“ they would have imggined that their population-crisis cy. .L. ,., Inmvvuv was a ut1_ire problem W ? :”*‘°‘ sari . v"“‘} § Such assessments however would reflect “vast open-space “"42; su ositions Instead of biology, biosplieric science, and sobering real-world data sets
  • 36. Part Three
  • 37. In 1986 Garrett Hardin compared ‘L7’: i1Li’: py/ imlg to “. . . an engineer’s estimate of the carrying capacity of a bridge”
  • 38. Carrying Capacity What should we know about . : ‘ - ‘E And which sorts of things in particular? I‘ . .— E I J Our planet is home to the only life-support machinery so far known to exist anywhere in the universe — and that machinery resides almost entirely within a superficial and strikingly-thin surface film ( l‘; l Ecosygtem services with examples such as 0: production, transpiration, pollination and systems self-rnairiteriarice, self-perpetuation, self-repair
  • 39. Carrying Qapvacfity What should we know about . : ‘ - And which sorts of things in particular? . n— l ( ' i Functional systems (which have always worked in the past) can collapse or Q1 in the face of endless distnantlements, damage, wastes. and eradications ( 1 )i i, limitin factors, thresholds, , die-offs, overshoot, systems failures, collapse I l— , And carrying capacity is E solely a matter of food or resources or various “runnimg-out-o ’ suppositions T m. ',_ T,
  • 40. And this planetary carpi-. r'3fi1gea, ';)a: <:ity for a modem and industrialized humanity, with a prpsperous standard of livirig foi~‘alEl I I . is '0/Vi! simply a matter of food E {T ' water, and resources I I I I/
  • 41. ‘But, is also a matter of dam I e, wastes, dismantlements, and sheer eradications /
  • 42. Carrying ‘Capacity OTHER examples of limiting factors include , , ’ V. / : ¥ __________________________________________ _: . I ' / ‘N. I ’ . . , . . ' / - / /fr / Limits to a system .9 capacities E E Wastes ‘ for: : : Eradications - self-maintenance I E Disease - self-p‘; e_1'pg tuation E 5 Agg: .ess_; _n — ;1f; mp. a_ir 5 : £1 . . : : Terntonahm Ecological resistance and E E Food Eoologcal services (such : ‘ as pojlinafion, production of min i E Water and daily pradtlctiorgjof each day '5 i I 4 } supplies of mo7écular 02) E I _ ' . ' Notice, importantly, that this list is Q restiicted solely to “ running-out-of ” suppositions such as food, or water, or resouices
  • 43. In appraising photographs of Earth taken from distant reaches of our solar system astronomer Carl Sagan observed that @ only known home of life so far known to exist an where in the universe is confined to a tiny “ pale blue dot ”
  • 44. ’. ,—_—. . . . 1 Wipe a wet paper towel across _x. , the surface of an oflice globe, -_. ‘ . A i x r, /-? '.' and the thin film of J73} water that it leaves behind will * 7 1 be, proportionally-speaking, 4+‘ . . ’- ' S ""3;-. ‘/’ TOO THICK to correctly depict the average depths of Earth’s oceans and seas. E 2 E . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Meanwhile, of our “pale-blue-dot” is comprised of a mW g planetary 3 @/ with its molten core, mantle, = and lithospheiic crustal plates . . ‘ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . » . . » » » » r, ; Thus, the Wondrous and 4 , biosphere» to precariously fragile, thin, and 5 and machinery that We 0811 superficial surface films that “life” are confined make up our atmos here -———— 21;, lands, oceans, and seas . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... u
  • 45. This amazing thing called life, therefore, is &t just a phenomenon on a tiny blue-dot in the vastness of space, but is largely, on a planetary scale, a surface phenomenon — residing in and dependent upon the onion-skin-thin surface films making up our oceans, atmosphere, biosphere, and seas Next, therefore, how about an example or two of the kinds of things that these super-thin surface films of life—support machineg; do
  • 46. Since ecosystems are finite in their size and resources, each has an I to the population that it ’ '7 can support while continuing to I Provide food, water and resources while ALSO — 4 I Withstanding eradications, impacts, and damage Fr“! I Tolerating or withstanding wastes 9°} AND retaining the capacity I To maintain, pggpgtuate, and ; §pa_i_1' itself while simultaneously continuing to provide , duce . . d1at0“‘5'pr° that we breathe the assorred ecological services ox)/8°“ that allow a given population to exist 3° "'3' Wtsdvm suggests Protecting ‘hem 3'” d°l“8 them no harm
  • 47. Examples of crucial ecological services include each day’s production and rgplacement of most of the molecular 02 that we and most other animals consume every few seconds What happens if we destroy them or diminish their numbers or weaken their ability to function? The fifty species of diatoms in the image above, for instance, are examples of phfioplankton in the earth’s oceans that help produce up to half or more of the oxygen that we breathe
  • 48. Other ecological services include, for instance, Pollination of vast percentages of flowering plants everywhere, and dramatic contributions to the production of rainfall by the process of transpiration. What happens if we destmy them or diminish their numbers or their capacity to fimction?
  • 49. Carrying ‘Capacity When considering the “carrying capacity” of our planet » - , and its biospheric life-support machinery, our instincts ‘ I prompt us to suppose that Earth’s LIMITS to human numbers must, in some ultimate way, depend on assorted “ ’ suppositions involving food, or water, or critical “resources, ” etc. However, while the above concerns are legitimate, there are OTHER egually—serious dangers, LIMITS, and limiting factors that are less- instinctively appreciated but with potentially calamitous implications | '____________
  • 50. Let us contemplate, therefore, several TlllPli”, iDlW4‘l3Rllil‘: l i 2%) to envision the implications of damages, wastes, dismantlements, and eradications as carrying capacity considerations Notice im ortantl ‘ that / mmankindis above excesses are NOT tem oran‘ ; , , or minor excesses and transgressions, but are, instead. " Endless non-stop, worldwide. ongoing, ever-widening, ever-growing. and EVER-ACCUMULATING
  • 51. As an initial exercise, imagine familiar finite vehicles such as a sacecraft, an aircraft, or elevators that have carrying capacities that constitute LIMITS to the number of passengers that they can accommodate without danger
  • 52. Imagine an elevator, for example, that can safely accommodate E passengers and yet Q or E or 1058 passengers begin to squeeze aboard
  • 53. Thus, as more and more people board an elevator (or an airplane, or a vehicle, or a planet) of limited capacity, If they do not recognize the existence of limits, they invite disaster
  • 54. As a second thought-experiment, imagine our planet as a global bus If a bus has enougl_1 seating for 50 passengers, ‘ ‘lg-‘_“'~ _ _ -— tuupjfr ‘ - r" “ A -: ;§‘J. .,x~"~—— — git" ‘ we would all agree that we could '7 _ - . I squeeze a few additional passengers i on board in an emergency I 7 But HOW MANY extras could the vehicle accommodate .7 What if @ climb aboard ? Orfl ? Or 17,678 ?
  • 55. A similar unsettling scenario can be envisioned if one imagines an aircraft of finite size, only to notice that a line of more and more and more , ./‘ persons continue to endlessly board the aircraft AND that each passenger (joined alsoiby economic entities) inflicts each day, (and on an endless and accumulating basis), ~_/ if additional wastes, damages. and eradications upon the f‘ functional components of the vehicle upon which they depend [,1I{3I. I ‘iqfinq os mu A1129};
  • 56. . It is easy I0~lIll(l€1'STflI1Cl that the ’ I stresses of excessive loading virtually ensure failures in one or more components. . I_ triggering the possible collapse of the entire system and the destmction of both the vehicle and its passengers Notice that such considerations begin to encompass a far-broader View than solely the food-centered assessments originally advanced by Malthus Today is biospheric science and whole-systems understandings, for example, are far more comprehensive in scope
  • 57. Imagine a team of astronauts in a space vehicle if they were to damage or portions of their vehicle (1) 93% Of (3) 87% of their heat Shields their CO2 scrubbers 95% of their guidance, navigation, and propulsion systems (4) 79% of their computer codes wv---»--~: -—. -—_—, ——--.7——. - I--at . _.. ~ . v—«. -— (5) Eradicate 91% of their electrical systems ' , arideviscerate or degrade other life: , — , — _ ' ~ ' 7 _ -‘ ‘support systems -of their spacecraft 51144914 uarta z{9_1[od1s21u3_1.4q 2141 Jou ztlqoqord
  • 58. As a further thought—experi1nent suppose that the owner of a new and pristine automobile begins to randoml derade its multiple oeratin sstems (1) gig 50% of its steering system 3% (2) 75% of its tires, and then (3) g its carburetor (4) Most of its spark plugs (5) 81% of its transmission (6) Half of its axles and brake shoes -— n. _ __ _ n’? }_; (7) And 93% of its ignition and electrical system
  • 59. And at the same time, this individual introduces massive, ever-growing, and ever-accumulating quantities of contaminants each and every day into ,0 '7. $7.‘ ’ / .0 , » ‘W K I 7- ' ‘ K-V _. '1 / i‘ — —— . its gasoline, o_il, radiator coolant, battery, and its transmission and brake fluids
  • 60. And then suppose that this individual cannot understand why his automobile which “has always worked in the past, ” DOESN’T FUNCTION ANYMORE
  • 61. Not so bri ht is he?
  • 62. Do we know anyone who seems to treat the only planetary life-szipport machiner_i' so for known to exist anywhere in the universe in a similar wgy?
  • 63. of course, would ever d1'ean1)of ' inflicting such damage upon the , vehicle thatsustains their‘ ‘ ; _s- lives in space
  • 64. .2 I J And the rest ofus < would never dream of i icting such damage upon an autorrlob ile or upon an airplane or a living person. ..
  • 65. v ' t the ONLY planetgflife-: "v supggrt rfiachingry so far tdétist; anywhere in piiiverse _ _ ; ,r. - H , __; ~., ‘, ‘, - g"I'1g"ly, however, we seem _ ~ to supppse that we-can ‘ A . . _ . _ fly "steinaticalbg v-'. demo dismntfe. and eradicate ‘ x ‘, I; /’ ' ', ,.. * I‘ . ,’I5__: . _’'‘a , : ‘. «. >‘r ' , , 1- ‘V’ I I v ‘ V T /
  • 66. as it has alwagp done" : 'ari‘d‘-to‘ pxesuinethat it will ' , ofunction v-. mm
  • 67. /Q, 7 “l‘§/ —/"l~i'%-—< " i, |Iiug, iI" 3L. '1pnvi, ".‘| IIt= -ill’ ' As a fourth thought experiment, imagine a it-mitt»-I~ whose policy is to guarantee that may will attempt to save at least a representative II we. sampling of the bones, the blood, the nerves, the hmgs, the win the ‘-Au-I hik. the elbow joints, the pancreas, the endocrine gands, the intestines, the Iraq. and the kidneys of their mtients
  • 68. Clearly, however, a policy of sag'1_)g small representative . ~mu. ,ut-. x of a patient’s cells, tissues, and organs offers in mwndmur: nlimkvna-Ia» that patients as healthy, living, and fimctioning entities will continue to survive
  • 69. - ‘V! 7 The 0bV'1011S defect in a 5‘ E? “ “representative samples" approach is $5 . '‘ Wit that it does not contemplate " " the potential e. or probabilities ; ,_'~'§ W, ‘ 21.’ ‘_ of fimctional-systems failures , ,,f~‘»; ',, and collapse outcomes . > , / 7 vi 1*. ‘ ii‘ 9 I {'7
  • 70. Notice that each of our thought-experiments seems to powerfizlly suggest — over and over and over again - that current policies that target '-r. ~ ~. —, V - ’i . — . H9flf%WLiflfl#3aU’v§flnMfl€$ awemwiemursm Kr: xxx
  • 71. It is thus important to appreciate that cgy’ capacity in - —- biological and biospheric systems routinely contemplates far more than various ru11ning—out—of instincts and suppositions that primarily envision solely problems involving food, or water, or similar “resources”
  • 72. Next, to close this section, we ofier a disquieting one-slide overview ,1,‘ Concerning humankind is endless, growing, worldwide, non-stop, and ever-accumulating production of WASTES
  • 73. ._IA_. __. _-A4 Worse than outbreaks of calfinoflagelllate redltftdle? Worrisorne: Because as we release wastes into our surroundings, our own species appears to exhibit a behavior that is extraordinarily similar to that of outbreaks of red-tide dinoflagellates. Except that our own species appears to be not only worse, but multiple orders of maggtude worse than the Worst outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tides in the history of the Earth. Why? Although dinoflagellates classically poison their surroundings (and other species) by their release of wastes into their surroundings, they at least limit themselves to the release of their individual cellular and metabolic wastes - and do not sppplement their wastes each day with millions of tons of industrial, chemical, and societal wastes. .. In addition, red-tide outbreaks are not decades-long WORLDWIDE events that encompass the entire globe and its entire biosphere on a growing, non-stop, unending, and ever-accumulating scale And lastly, red-tide dinoflagellates have not invented machine guns, bulldozers, earth movers, purse seines, chain saws, mines, explosives, credit cards, corporations, and hydroelectric dams and deployed them to carry out and inflict worldwide damage and eradications across the entire flzce of the Earth every day H107‘i7J‘(’ll}Ql‘}.70flC‘ll: ’l'S who I136/Jeltroptws to kill other xpeczcs_fZ7I'_li21m1C1z7/ gaim Did we mention that we are only talking about the ONLY planetary life-support machinery so for known to exist anywhere in the universe? j
  • 74. Part Four Limits, ©versh®®t, amt] Gsflflapse A quick review and a few closing thoughts
  • 75. There are thousands of examples of Limits. Thresholds, ‘W’ Tipping points that exist in natural, real-world, and biospheric systems (umotopm plre lL(0!D[ tpoq)
  • 76. h‘; ’ I ‘_ '. Ever-more crowding, damage’. , _‘_ and eradications invite transgression 4., ‘ i of one or multiple critical . . Limits _g '. ' Thresholds pa _l’g
  • 77. Examine the dominoes in the image below whi ch, while exhibiting a kind of stability, do so in a tempo@ and pr_'ecarious way What happens if someone destabilizes this sggtem? 01' if they accidentally topple the first domino’? Notice that once triggered, subsequent events might suddenly and unexpectedly, unfold both quickly and unstoppably - like a row of toppling dominos
  • 78. If the FIRST domino is mistakenly tipped, notice that it can cause all the others to also fall in quick and unstoppable succession. 7 —-A One reason that climate change, carbon dioxide, and methane are worrisome, for example, is because I o 9 . . . . H ‘.0 E E Q 3 anthropogemc warrrung O. .4 g ‘C i 3 I. '4. u‘, ‘.0 .9 . o I l : ‘ ‘ could potentially trigger an automatic, continuous, self- 7 propelling and unstoppable process that continues as a runaway or self-pe_r'[§t11ating chain reaction that releases more and more gigatons of methane (CH4) — giant portions of which are currently stored in the frozen soils of pertm’1f‘0.st
  • 79. Let us consider, for instance, two samples of THRESHOLDS in real-world natural systems First, an example in a biological system can be seen in human blood that has buffers that keep blood Ifl at a slightly-alkaline 7.4 Seemingly-small transgressions, however, beyond (lower limit) or E (upper limit) . , 1n. ac1aosis‘. {;aLr§1&i§, ‘» % " _ ; ,,. :e . ,~, ,-, ;,¢, ;,; ,, ,,. ,,, _~. .‘. ._. ... -m. ~§. rm-.
  • 80. :L, In a physical system at standard pressure, a container of hot water at g: i._" ,7 degrees gx'-ud'L‘1l»: II is fnvliil «nut: -‘ ,1 9° % , » , , 3 "8 -‘ " “J . c A: it fl V3 3*. .. ' Q) ' _, _:i I. t _ . "G 1,. » ‘'‘| ‘ )1‘: ‘ l I U3 . .*: "U find n . e 3 >4 . —+ V) If, however, the temperature increases by only one additional degree, the entire system quickly transforms into a system of gaseous’ steam Notice that the change can be __: _gu_11, and
  • 81. Meanwhile wanning oceans have the potential to unlock STILL MORE gigatons of methane currently stored in frozen muds on ocean floor Releases from these stores of methane (whi ch is a powerful greenhouse gas) can trigger additional warming that H . : : :3 ,0 releases more methane ‘g’ , 0' '4 :4 7' Q 0‘. W 0' Ii '0 g ‘C ‘O. C Q which causes more heating, that releases more methane. that causes more herding . ..etc. with the possibility of the process entering a runaway. Imstogpable. and uncontrollable chain reaction with continuous increases in heat Notice that once triggered, subsequent events might quickly and unstoppably unfold like a row of toppling dominos
  • 82. Wliut about stlppnsititms that "tcclitiolngy. " 01' "im cntix cticss. “ "i1111mL1tin11.~. ‘ "inge1u1it}. ” "f1'cc 1n:11'l<cts. " n1"':1ddititm:1l l; ‘i11stci11s" will stuc 115‘? Or do our technological tools and advances actually enable us to inflict MORE extensive damage and eradications upon o11r planet more completely, more efficiently, more easily, and more Quickly than ever? Producing a worldwide species of hunter-gatherers armed with Earth- movers, chain-saws, tree-chippers, and machine guns? unj1d_u3§ap 914303 / faJ/ ja/ 17 131/17 5/ , ,sunfi—au/ qamu gym s4aJaqmfi—Ja1unH, ,
  • 83. Suppose that we cure disease or make significant advances in life-extension. Does that mean that we simu/ taneozls/ v increased the capacity of the Earth and its natural, biospheric, and planetary life-support systems to withstand Damages, Wastes, Disrnantlements, and Eradications?
  • 84. Suppose, for a moment, that science develops advances in food production Does that mean that we have increased our planet 3' carrying capacity? ' ' Probably not, because such advances may increase the number ’ F A of humans, but will be accompanied by increases in the damage, wastes, dismantlements, and eradications that we inflict Review the next slide to recall again multiple OTHER decisive limiting factors that limit the carrying capacity of Earth’s biospheric life-support machinery
  • 85. Remember our list of sixteen examples. .. (1) lmssll (10) Limits to a syste1n’s capacity , (2) Wastes l! for self-mairitemmce K¥(3) fla_dt'_cgQo_rps'_ ! ! (11) Limits to a system’s capacity >. .—, ._, >7 1‘ 7 i__3!__, — - for sempemetllafjon (4) Food (5) Water (12) Ecological resistance (6) T (13) Competition (14) Territoriality (7) Disease (8) Aggression (15) Pathogens and disease (16) Each day’s production of (9) Limits to a system’s atmospheric 02 capacity for self-repair So that our list is not restricted solely to “rimning-out-of’ _s_upp9sitions such as food, or wat_er_, or resources
  • 86. Damages, Wastes, and Enaelfieetfiens . “.‘—_ Vb, .. ». , Environmental Ex" igi ? ‘gp‘ acities m necessarily center only on food and water, but can also dapgnd on critical limits to the eradications damages. impacts. and wastes. that they can safely xxitlistaiul —— and to their Capacities for xvil"l'l’l‘Cl1l; l1im]_ ~. -E11:t: :mtmi. mee. and C. —" " mi
  • 87. No rational astronauts would ever dream of inflicting such damage upon the vehicle that sustains their lives in space, and the rest of us would never dream of inflicting such damage upon our automobiles.
  • 88. But we somehow seem to suppose that we can inflict such damage T: av’ upnntlie-()NLY ‘ p| :ilii—'l’; —it‘y lil'e~si1ppni't lll; l('lllll(_‘l‘)" so far known to exist . _:__ anywhere in the universe and to assume that it should unfailingly continue to function as it has always done in the past
  • 89. When there are” icebergs” out there (limits, thresholds, and tipping points) shouldn't the passengers on the vessel 1 especially the young passengers who may be affected most) — be ; ~ , “ apprised of the data sets, hazards, and possible i V’ ' implications for themselves and their families, and for the ONLY planetgy life-suppgrt machingry so far known to exist anywhere in the universe?
  • 90. Appendices and supporting mathematics
  • 91. N s 3 Q 2 Z § § 9 at s 2 i Q 3’ 3 5 § 5 E oi >. E as I -- Dinanaions source: Unhaarslly olMid1‘qan Museum otzoology - Aninal ommty wan hfh llulindrfivwsmr Ilnmi | :v'r)I nrtllxrlivrvt/ fiwlfir lnand-Imfishirlrd flmarfittl A reindeer herd population collapse in ‘vast open-space’ surroundings - The ’ %-unoccupied ' mathematics Part One Begin by lculating the area (in sq. meters) that is physica| ly~occupied by the body of an average reindeer (Rangifer tarandus). To do so, we need length and width (girth) where length of adults ~ 150 cm (about live feet) up to about 239 cm (about 7.5 feet) for large males) “' Shoulder height [e. g. -120 cm is given ("'), but girth is not (since it varies with amount of food, the time of year, and the number of adults, pregnant females, and calves, etc). Assume here average width (girth) is roughly 76 cm (or ~ 2.5 feet) and average midrange length ~ 183 cm. Area = (L)x (W) = (183 cm)x (76 cm) so that the body of an average individual physica| ly—oc— cupies 13,908 cm’( or roughly 1.4 sq. meters) Part Two "' Total area of St. Paul Island, Alaska 106 km’ Total island area and island areafindividual 106 km’ or 106,000,000 sq. meters Next civide the island's total square meters by the 25 original reindeer resulting in about 4,240,000 sq. meters per individual at the outset of the study and 106,000,000 sq. meters divided by 2000 reindeer equals roughly 53,000 square meters each as they neared the onset of their calamitous die—off Part Three Cdculating the percentage occupied and percmtage unoccupied The approximate area theoretlcal vailable to each individual as the reindeer population reached 2000 individuals and began to near the onset of its collapse = - 53,000 sq. meters per individual Thus, 53,000 sq. meters minus the 1.4 sq. meters pgfiically-occupied by me bgdy of the indvldual livim in that area, results in roughly 52, 998.6 sq. meters that remains physically-unoccupied Lastly, we calculate the percentages occupied and unoccupied as the reindeer begin to approach the onset of their island-wide collapse The gcentage unoccupied will be given by 52,9986 sq. meters divided by 53,000 sq. meters which equals - 99.99735% unoccupied Thus, as the herd neared the beginning / the threshold / the onset of its calamitous and nearlyannihilating 99%-plus die-off and collapse the average individual reindeer was surrounded by what visua'| y»appeared to be seeminglv ‘vast open-space‘ ghvsical surroundings that remained roughly 99.99735“/ la unoccupied And, finally, 100% minus 99.99735% = 0.002 65% occupied (roughly 211000” of 1% Egg) To picture this in more familiar tem)s_ envision a circle that IS about mice the size of a baseball on an otherwise empgl basketball court EvaIilhiswereasent1entspeclee, weni9tIa§kIxlselvwif, jvallheseerringlyfimst operupaoe’ contitiom otthetr surrotncings, iteven lher brightest sdlohn and most omsclentious leaders oimld have inaglned: (3) the motto collapse ttxayuaae aboutlouidago (itwasabotltobeji), an‘. l(b)its§reeand;99j_t. _-mgexta1l’!
  • 92. Supporting mathematics 1 — Outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide A (Population blooms of Karenia brevis) Population mass mortalities ln outbreaks of Karenia brew‘: red-tlde and in "vast open-space conditions" — Supporting mathematics Severe redtide oondilirm occur when Korenia mm- paptdbfiona reach mncnritrnfiana ranging firm! 100_000to 1,00D_O00 or more perlilar (1)Vo| umeofone liter = 1000 cm’ " (2) Approxintate dimension of a Karenia brevis cell: L: ~ 30 rnierometers (= 0.03 mm)" "' W: - 35micronrmtars (= 0.035 mm " "' D‘ ~21|rnic1ornele. rs(= 002 mm)''''' Dirmoiorn nun ‘ntusmeu mm scum ulwramutic ‘-mow "‘ - Pvttuwn U"¢N'| ¢H39'| . En! -‘filovefiadllle - ArIdlromFbn'daFiinhmdWld| teConncrvatxitCornrnsiot(2014)- ‘Eachaellis-20-dsniovlneters Iomnnd15-.20niwnnotersw'de"' Part One Volume ola typtcal cell of Karenia brevls V = (L) it (W)x (D) = (0.03) x (0.005) at (0.02) Volume = Approximately 0.000021 mm Thus, 1.000.000 K. bravis cells oscupya rmdmately 11,000,000” (0.00002t mm°) = -21m ( ~ 0.021 cm’) Since one ltter = I000 cm’, §_u_mgr; _imIhe volume that is phyricallyocmpied b all 1,000,000 Karenia bmvis cells oombmed( .021 cm’) rneansthal (1000 cm’) minus (0.021cm‘) leuvw about 999.975 an‘ unoccupied in other words, one rnfllion dinotla ellate cells in a 1000 cm’ sample etil have approximately 999.97 cm’ of unoccupied volume thatwwld appear to remain theoretically-availabta In-them Part Two &t§mt§w Therefore, the mQ equals (999379 cm’) divided by (1000) so that about 99.091 9 , , Iofflwesampleg (oral volume remains vnoccupi 99.998% unoccupied that appears to remain seentingty-available Thus, (100%) minus (99397 9) - (0.002 1-at. ) (or g 2l1000"" ol1% ofthe total volume that appears to comprise the sample) Topmnnismnnemnnarmnm, airlsxmacltch lnartsnmu Moeuxestzealabosetmtloaan amomtsa ermrybaambolloourt. Thus. even the K. brevle cells occupy :1 tolunetneally; inslqnlficznl portim at the ‘vast open-grace‘ that visuallyjpmrg they nfiwflhdfifi millage. by their mmbined overpopulation and production of in». -isa'ble and calamitous wastes, to catastrophically-alter and visit utter calamity upon their home envirormentwhidi visualty appears to remain almost entirely 'cmpty. '
  • 93. worldpgpttlation alamities 131 near ydempty Supporting Math uonments The image shown left depicts the physical amount of space that constitutes two one-thousandths of one percent. Note that the dot in the image denotes two one—thousandths ofone percent of the dark rectangle. The step-by-step mathematics outlined below permits preparation of a two-dimensional illustration like the one shown here that visually depicts the proportional amount of area occupied bytwo one~thousandths of one percent. (1) Use imaging software to open a rectangle 500 pixels high by 350 pixels wide =175,000 square pixels (Here: wine-red rectangle) (2) Thus, one percent of this area = (175,000) x (.01) equals 1750 square pixels (3) in addition, 1/1000“ of one percent = (1750) times (.001) equa| s1.750 square pixels (4) And two1000"'5 of one percent = (1750) x (.002) equals 3.5 square pixels (5) Calculating the square root of 3.5 square pixels equals 1.87 pixels, so that a square of (1.87 pix- els) by (1.87 pixels) equals 3.5 square pixels Thus beginning with a rectangle of 500 x 350 pixels, a small square of1.87 pixels by 1.87 pixels (length times width) would visually depict a physical region oftwo one-thousandths of one percent.
  • 94. fiiuprplorrtiingg rnrartilniea ': 1 miles In world population was growing larger by extra persons per year; and later, in 2011. for example, world population was growing larger at a rate of extra persons per year. .. 1 Imagineapassenger bus that was headed toward a cliff at per hour _. ' and now it is not only closer to the ' cliff but now it is headed toward ' the cliff at per hour) Brit “don’t worry” the driver says, “our percentage rate of speed is gradually slowing”
  • 95. Biologically-speaking, and from the perspective of functioning biospheric systems, it is probably on the order of roughly TWO billion— or even somewhat less. Speaking from a natural science / biological / and biospheric machinery perspective, multiple, independent, and powerful lines of evidence suggest quire poweiflz/ /_1' that the ggggpflg of the Earth for a modern, industrialized humanity is on the order of TWO BILLION or even somewhat less.
  • 96. Shouldn ’t professors share this presentation and its information with their students and with the enormous rising generations of under-20s all around the world whose lives will be governed by these numbers, principles, and demographics?
  • 97. Did you know that the officers ofthe passenger liner Titanic received six separate and specific warnings of ice during the 24 hours preceding their ship s collision with the iceberg? And what did they do? They went right ahead and sailed their ship and its passengers right into the iceberg

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