SECURING A CAREER PLACEMENT EDGE:
HIRING FOR POTENTIAL,
AN ADVANCED APPROACH TO STUDENT STUDY ABROAD, ALIGNING PURPOSE
WIT...
PUBLICATION INFORMATION
Huff, P. D. (2015). Securing A Career Placement Edge: Hiring for Potential, An Advanced Approach t...
ABSTRACT
The author undertakes an analysis of China’s political, economic, legal, and technology
environments in the conte...
ABSTRACT
These recommendations will subsequently be tested using Wheatley’s Complexity
(Grobman, 2005) and Trompenaars’ Ch...
CHAPTER FIVE: Conclusions
There is no body of methods; or comprehensive methodology for the study of the impact of public
...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
policy effectively created an aging problem in the country that is contributing to a substantial...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
of this author’s interviews and surveys with national Chinese working class these concerns were
...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
development process that may additionally touch on and be influenced by ethnography. By
applying...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
predictive judgment as to the priorities and direction China’s strategies and system of prioriti...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
considerably lesser when compared to many developed countries in the Western Bloc. When
viewed i...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
influencers, and drivers of China’s economic priorities, strategies, and resulting policies. Man...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
causations or origins of forces at play in a society or sovereign government that are driving it...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
Among the strategies that have been adopted by China that pertain to this area of interest
are t...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
individuals”. These are to be “coordinated” as a paced process during the achievement
of China’s...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
of its internal national development, manufacturing power, the harvesting of its natural resourc...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
Challenges
In order for China to successfully implement its national strategies and related poli...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
• Expand the country’s leadership influence in other regions of the world to include the
West an...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
areas as a result of the financial crisis being experienced in the West and Europe and as associ...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
any additional assistance to the global community. So to a degree facing these challenges will
l...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
regional sovereigns between 2014 and 2020” (Bank, 2015; Jia, 2015). Once accomplished, the
ADB w...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
acceptance of China’s political ideologies, and improve the worldview of its
leader’s ethics, au...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
• Hypothesis No. 3: China’s laws are protective of intellectual property rights however
there is...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
The CPC and the government will continue to closely monitor these policies as priorities
that ar...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
Political Policy
“The core of the Chinese development mode is institutional suitability, which, ...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
The series of findings pertaining to the political environment are presented in the
following or...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
• Stability and Security (SS): increased stability and security of the people and the
government...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
people and foreigners to first accumulate wealth and then become accepting of China’s political
...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
ASAP OBSERVATION POINT 40:
OBSERVING THE CULTURAL EXPECTATIONS OF A COUNTRY’S PEOPLE: When desig...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
Pure Strategy
The current political strategies being applied in support of the CPC’s policies ar...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
maritime fleet. However, after a short period of discovery and service to the country this fleet...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
central government have excellent memory retention pertaining to the implications of dealing wit...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
Other scholars and analysts examined in this study’s SLRs argue that by China continuing
the pre...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
• Building the country’s image and sense of value, ethics, trust, control, and authority with
it...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
empowerment that are commonly coupled with improved living standards. The challenge of these
new...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
Overall, China's political strategies and policies as established by the CPC are aggressive
and ...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
verticals.” Further, goals and priorities for China's government were analyzed “across lines of
...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
HVO Significance and Determination of Findings
1. A classification performance score of 67 perce...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
2. Nationalism (HVO2): Increase nationalism and goals that are internally suitable. To
accomplis...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
5. Transformation (HVO5): Transform political and economic focus from manufacturing
to one of cr...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
reasonable doubt, that the approach of the author in selecting the said classification is both
s...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
Mixed-Strategies, Game Play, and Estimated Utility Outcomes (Nash applied)
Table 9: Mixed-Strate...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
Testing Pure Mixed-Strategy Outcome Probabilities:
Test for two tuple outcomes representing any ...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
Figure 9:Mixed-Strategy Multidimensional Interpretative: (Plotted Outcomes)
Tuples:
(HVO1 ,HVO5)...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
B. Adaptation Notes:
1. The proposed high-value objectives (HVOs) are examined for significance ...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
11. Pure strategy: Under Nash’s Equilibrium (Game Theory) this condition is met when the players...
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS
H. Rules, limits, and assumptions:
1. Non-Cooperative Gaming: Player Groups take turns moving as...
NASH EQUILIBRIUM INTEGRATION WITH THE DELPHI POLICY MODEL_ChinaStudyAbroad_151001-01(pdh)3rdedit__Chap5 Pol Section
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NASH EQUILIBRIUM INTEGRATION WITH THE DELPHI POLICY MODEL_ChinaStudyAbroad_151001-01(pdh)3rdedit__Chap5 Pol Section

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  • 1. SECURING A CAREER PLACEMENT EDGE: HIRING FOR POTENTIAL, AN ADVANCED APPROACH TO STUDENT STUDY ABROAD, ALIGNING PURPOSE WITH EXPERIENCE CHINA IMPACT 2012 – 2025 中国冲击 2012 - 2025 一部综合性的关于中国政治,经济,国际化领导力及 本国经济政策之调查分析与建议 Volume 1 1st Edition APPLYING THE SPELIT MODEL AS A FRAMEWORK TO IDENTIFY AND EXPLORE CRITICAL LITERATURE SO AS TO ADVANCE EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING BY FOCUSING ON IN-COUNTRY RESEARCH AS A PRELUDE TO INTEGRATING THE SALDANA AND DELPHI MODELS By: Patrick. D. Huff
  • 2. PUBLICATION INFORMATION Huff, P. D. (2015). Securing A Career Placement Edge: Hiring for Potential, An Advanced Approach to Student Study Abroad, Aligning Purpose With Experience (1 ed., Vol. 1). (C. Zabilski, E. B. Huff, J. L. Huff, J. L. Huff, Eds., & P. D. Huff, Trans.) Woodland Hills, CA, USA: GPS-AG, Inc. doi:ISBN-13:978-1508426882 Key Words: Student, Study, Abroad, Advanced, SPELIT, Saldana, Delphi, University, Collegiate, Employment, Potential, Leadership, Social, Political, Economic, Legal, Intercultural, Technology, Infrastructure, Teaching, Methods, Instructional, Personal, Development, Ethics, Organizational, Behavior, International, Global, Language, China, Pepperdine Except in the United States of America, this book is sold subject to the condition it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired-out, or circulated without the publisher’s prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published with these conditions being imposed on subsequent purchasers. The scanning, uploading, and distribution of this book via the Internet or other means without the permission of the publisher is illegal and punishable by law. Please purchase only authorized electronic editions, and do not participate in or encourage electronic piracy of copyrighted materials. Your support of the author’s rights is appreciated. While the author(s) have made every effort to provide accurate telephone numbers, Internet addresses, and other contact information at the time of publication, neither the publisher nor the author(s) assume any responsibility for errors, or for changes that occur after publication. Further, publisher does not have any control over and does not assume any responsibility for author(s) or third-party websites or their content. Copyright © 2012 by GPS-AG, Inc. Publishing Division, All rights reserved, no part of this work covered by the copyright may be reproduced or used in any form or by any means except as permitted by the authors or its publisher. The authors may be contacted at the email addresses provided in this document. Permission is hereby granted to professors and their students to photocopy Appendix A for use only in classes in which this study guide is a required text supplement. Except for Appendix A, no portion of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the author or this publisher. Printed in the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America ISBN-13: 978-1508426882 ISBN-10: 1508426880 xvii
  • 3. ABSTRACT The author undertakes an analysis of China’s political, economic, legal, and technology environments in the context of leadership and policy developments. The research design is a bound longitudinal study with the initial immersion occurring 21 May to 31 May 2012. The research covers a total of four immersions of relatively equal duration. The study and supporting research is based on a mixed-method approach that touches on an ethnological phenomenon (Wolcott, 1999) within China. The approach is weighted 83 percent on qualitative literature reviews and 17 percent on original quantitative data. The purpose of the study is to assist in closing a gap in the literature on China, act as a collegiate (post-graduate level) primer in support of in-country studies and experiential learning with a focus on an empirical investigation into the country’s future direction and priorities. Original data is collected using face-to-face open-ended surveys or narrative interviews conducted during each immersion. Each immersion focuses on observations of China’s environment through the lens of ethnic differences within each of its regions or provincial sovereigns. Background survey participants include academic scholars, government officials, industry leaders, faculty advisors, and common Chinese “worker class”. These surveys assist in determining the study’s initial focus, significance, development of preliminary inquiries, and the final direction of the research. Stage one of this study includes the initial discoveries pertaining to environmental factors identified by using the SPELIT Power Matrix Model as a process to frame the in-country research and analysis of phenomena. In this stage a total of 4 cities, 5 provinces, and 7 organizations were visited and observed. These form the domains from which all in-country data was designed to be collected. A total of seven surveys (N=7) are designed with a total sampling of (n = 26) in-country participants taken in different locations. This stage includes the development of 19 Structured Literature Reviews (SLRs) in accordance with Pan’s Relevant Literature Review Model. This series of SLRs are focused on four areas of interest (factors) in order to identify the relevancy of the study’s core research questions. Stage two of the study design examines the in-country data and literature by subjecting it to assessment and analysis for critical reoccurring themes and codes using Saldana’s Model and by applying a weighted Likert scale to determine each elements degree of significance. Stage two requires the identification of a panel of (n=12) survey participants in order to apply the Delphi Policy Model. Hegelian Theory is utilized as an underlying and controlling dialectic process throughout all stages of the SLR and subsequent Delphi survey process. Each participant will be selected on the basis of cultural bias and subject matter expertise (SME). The model includes a three-round survey series which integrates subsequent round evaluations by the participants to identify, validate, and determine the significance of findings. The series of surveys (N = 3) represents a total sample population (n = 36) necessary to acquire a relevant body of evidence. This stage concludes with the assessment of findings, and conclusions derived from the process. Stage three of the study will summarize the conclusions and concise recommendations for future study and offered for the consideration of policy decision-makers. Key to this study’s findings is the estimate of China’s top priority and the direction its leadership will set over the next 10 years. xix
  • 4. ABSTRACT These recommendations will subsequently be tested using Wheatley’s Complexity (Grobman, 2005) and Trompenaars’ Change Across Cultures Theory (Hampden-Turner, Trompenaars, 2000) as methods of analysis and evaluation of China’s leadership through the lens of Quinn’s Competing Values Model so as to formulate corollaries between the study’s findings, China’s leadership characteristics, behavior, and probable actions that will define China’s Impact on the international community between 2016 and 2025. Keywords: Student, Study, Abroad, Advanced, SPELIT, Saldana, Delphi, University, Collegiate, Employment, Potential, Leadership, Social, Political, Economic, Legal, Intercultural, Technology, Infrastructure, Teaching, Methods, Instructional, Personal, Development, Ethics, Organizational, Behavior, International, Global, Language, China, Pepperdine xx
  • 5. CHAPTER FIVE: Conclusions There is no body of methods; or comprehensive methodology for the study of the impact of public policy as an aid to future policy. James Samuel Coleman, 1972 Introduction This study emphasizes exploring four aspects of China’s society. Each aspect paints a distinct picture about the Middle Kingdom. This investigation included a review and assessment of individual political, economic, legal, technology, and infrastructural environmental factors. The study endeavors to discover the potential impact of these factors within a time and space bias as a set of potential influencers. These influencers will drive the future direction of mainland China as it navigates its needs, objectives, goals, and desires. These will in turn drive the priorities of its leadership. Further, these priorities will serve to impose a series of significant and disruptive innovations and change in the global community over the next decade. Since the 1990s, China has achieved incredible success in its economic development. However, this author’s survey shows there are still potential risks to the country should it sustain its current pace of development. Evidence surfaced in China as well as in contemporary literature during this investigation that suggests there is a shift in the country’s growth trend. These new trends infer China is now attempting to slow its internal economic development. These trends are being signaled by the emergence of a set of priorities that are focused on enhancing and growing China’s global external interests, image, competency, and authority as a new world leader. Moreover, China is rapidly learning from the errors inherent in past reforms. As an example, China has discovered the adverse effects from imposing its one-child policy. Due to these discoveries, the government has reassessed and is undertaking a series of reforms to overhaul the policy due to its negative impacts on China’s continuing economic growth goals. The original 166
  • 6. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS policy effectively created an aging problem in the country that is contributing to a substantial reduction in China’s workforce, production, and manufacturing strengths. These traditional Chinese laborers and associated work ethics are representative of many of the drivers of the country’s attractiveness to foreign investors. Since 1990 foreign investment in mainland China’s industrial manufacturing complex and pursuit of its domestic markets has been surging. When the strength of China’s traditional labor force and its work ethics are fully considered as significant growth factors, it is clear that the government of China will need to place a considerable effort into dealing with this shrinking and highly productive resource. Further, departures of the aged population from the workforce continue to impose an ever- increasing burden to the national economy. This study’s SLR analysts suggest labor resources are additionally challenged due to China’s lack of a comprehensive social security and pension system for retirees which are adding to reductions in the productivity of the younger workforce. Collectively these conditions may become influential factors that drive the country’s priorities towards increasing national spending for a health care system that serves the entire population in the near future. Such social programs that are focused on serving this growing aged population will serve the government’s interests as these programs will free the younger generation (family members) from commitments to provide care and support of its aging and infirm members. As China begins to focus on monitoring the effects of these conditions, few government officials argue against them being social-economic detractors that are undermining the productivity of younger Chinese workers. These observations were additionally confirmed as extracted from this study’s in-country surveys and SLR research. Absent the attention of the government towards providing relief in this area, ever- increasing internal burdens on young Chinese entering the workforce may serve to additionally reduce their productivity as they strive to care for the needs of their extended families. In many 167
  • 7. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS of this author’s interviews and surveys with national Chinese working class these concerns were expressed as significant. Many argued the government’s one-child policy has resulted in placing burdens on the family unit that are unprecedented in recent history. China’s rapidly changing social-economic and workforce demographics are likely already influencing the country’s leadership and future priorities. The environmental factors this author explored in this area of interest provide indicators of China’s recent Five Year Plan to shift the country’s economic focus away from being the manufacturing hub of the world to one of being a leader in innovative design, research, and development of unique Chinese brands and products. This shift is significant when placed in the context of the country’s future demand for large quantities of unskilled laborers. Given the country’s change in direction, the need for such a large labor force in the future is substantially reduced. This shift in strategy, however, does not serve to effectively ensure bridging the economic growth gap during China’s manpower transition from a hard working labor force to one representative of advanced technological research, development, innovation, and production when assessed within a highly competitive global economy. This shift represents a transformation from a system driven by a planned economy to one instead driven by a uniquely Chinese socialistic market economy. Many economic scholars and historians view China’s present stage of development as one that represents a duality between an “economic system and economic growth method” (Ruogu, 2008, pp. 424-425). Rubric for Policy Development: Ethics, Values, and Goals It is inherent to the nature of policy development and decision making that a wide range of multidimensional and interdisciplinary factors are considered in the process of designing and applying an appropriate Inquiring System (IS) (Turoff M. , 2002). Collectively, when applied to social, political, economic, legal, and technology environmental strategies that support a policy 168
  • 8. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS development process that may additionally touch on and be influenced by ethnography. By applying this author’s rubric as a part of the pre and post Delphi Policy process reviewers should be reminded that both are simply tools for the analysis of relevant issues and not mechanisms for final policy decisions. They are only used to facilitate the discovery of significant factors, influencers, and drivers that can be synthesized to provide a simplified structure that is supportive of identifying a consensus (Turoff M. , 2002). In Rist’s paper on the topic of policy research and its related decisional processes he offers the following observations. “Research is but one (and often minor at that) among a number of often contradictory and competing sources that seek to influence what is an ongoing and constantly evolving process.” Rist stresses, the term "process" because he chooses to describe policy decision making as more or less an “unbounded” process, as characterized by actors who arrive on the scene (often unannounced)… “delimited by clearly defined constraints of time and location,” purpose, or calculation. Such a description suggests the antithesis of the conventional understanding of decision making. In the latter, a more traditional approach to decision making is understood as a discrete event. One that is undertaken by a defined set of actors that are working in "real time" and moving to a decision that is based on their analysis of a list of alternatives (Rist, 1983). Ultimately the objective of this research is to present to the Delphi Policy Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel a completed assessment and evaluation rubric that will allow each participant to view a synthesized summation of the findings pertaining to each research question. Moreover, this study’s findings and recommendations will serve to assist each SME in their ability to quickly evaluate, assess, and determine an opinion as to a definitive set of priorities and sense of the future direction of China as pertaining to each category of interest or controlling environmental factor. The resulting degree of consensus or lack thereof, will allow this author to offer a 169
  • 9. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS predictive judgment as to the priorities and direction China’s strategies and system of priorities may take over the next 10 to 15 years. The following rubric is presented as an interpretive tool to summarize the range of potential outcomes related to each environmental factor and associated research inquiry as a set of “predictive elements” (Mitroff & Turoff, 1975). Figure 7: Rubric Model Conceptual Rubric Model Policy Development Conclusions During the author’s exploration into China’s strategies, policies, and development he discovered the government’s approach and consideration of social, political, economic, legal, intercultural, and technology factors are undertaken with a considerable male bias. This bias is not unique to other eastern cultures this author has studied. In fact, he has found it to be quite commonplace. As one of this study’s SLR analysts observed, this gender bias makes being a female in certain areas of China similar to being subject to a death sentence. This bias is 170
  • 10. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS considerably lesser when compared to many developed countries in the Western Bloc. When viewed in the context of the Chinese people, the CPC, and their government, all are in agreement when gender bias is considered as an influencer to the direction of the country’s social, political, economic, legal, and technology strategies, policies, and development. As such, China’s future policy development and resulting direction will continue to be heavily influenced by this bias and its strong sense of nationalism, exceptionalism, and interest in increasing its power, authority, and presence. Collectively, these are supportive of a set of esoteric or pure strategies that are designed to lead China to becoming the new global leader. Pure Strategy’s Role in Policy Development China’s economic strategies are relatively transparent and reasonably well defined within its different five year plans and series of documents that provide supporting arguments in favor of the adoption of these plans. Some of this study’s SLR scholars define strategy as a plan, method, or series of maneuvers or stratagems that are applied to achieve a specific goal or result. Strategies are often employed during periods of peace and war by a nation or society by focusing its total powers and force structure to achieve large-scale, long-range developmental desires and goals. To ensure the security and victory of a nation in the achievement of its most challenging goals, it is necessary that its society supports its government with the strength and commitment of an equally strong public will. Discovery of these strategies is relatively easy as many of the arguments associated with the different aspects of each plan are available on the worldwide Internet. These are either authored by the elite “insiders” within China’s government or by world class subject matter experts and/or historians that have followed China’s economy for several decades. Most of these SMEs or Sino-analysts have a common approach to gaining a full understanding of these factors, 171
  • 11. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS influencers, and drivers of China’s economic priorities, strategies, and resulting policies. Many of this study’s history, social-geography scholars, and scientists argue that it is essential to become knowledgeable and understanding of China’s ancient cultural origins, language, icons, and ideologies before a researcher can break the code pertaining to how China really works (Bol, 2009; Diamond, 2005). To this extent then, Sino-scholars, academics, and experts investigating various categories of China’s environmental factors believe researchers must first understand the ideology of China’s most influential philosophers. Once this is achieved, these scholars argue it is necessary to fully understand and appreciate the nature and impact that China’s geographic placement plays in its development and influence within the global community (Bol, 2009). Next, these scholars and SMEs would argue it is necessary to investigate, appreciate, and understand the role a country’s natural resources and material requirements play as influencers in the global community (Diamond, 2005). Once these pure factors are understood, a researcher can better assess and evaluate the following: • China’s social culture, controlling philosophies • ideological believes and collective internal and external worldviews • established and tested trade and commerce traditions and customs • shifting needs • desires within the global community Once understood, only then can a researcher begin to be empowered with sufficient insight and the tools necessary to begin to identify relevant relationships, trends, and the possible 172
  • 12. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS causations or origins of forces at play in a society or sovereign government that are driving its desires, priorities, strategies, and ultimately its internal and external policies. Ultimately, it is the objective of any policy analyst that is focused on assessing the future direction of a particular society to be able to identify the “pure strategy” of the society being investigated. By decoding this pure strategy a researcher can pose a hypothetical statement of how a study subject is playing the game to achieve its primary objectives and long-term goals (Nash, 1928; Neumann & Morgenstem, 1953). Once deciphered the analyst can better predict each move a society will make given a variety of situations it is likely to confront. This research attempts to discover and identify key factors within China’s strategies that represent its “strategy set” or pure strategies that are associated to the country as it acts to achieve its internal and external desires. This research attempts then to ultimately identify and assign a probability to each of the environmental factors as categories directly or indirectly associated with dependencies to each pure strategy as an influencer in driving China’s future priorities, policies, and direction. Strategy Sets and Priorities China’s set of pure strategies are highly complex and integral to the achievement of a myriad of national needs and desires. In fact, during the conductance of the initial research the author discovered and identified a specific set of pure strategies in association with China’s political, economic, legal, technology and infrastructural policies. Each of these is presented and explored within this Chapter. The author provides a list that represents a few of the strategies that are being applied to achieve China’s present national objectives and goals as a strategy set. 173
  • 13. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS Among the strategies that have been adopted by China that pertain to this area of interest are the following: • Monitor internal and external environments so as to adopt a slow and calculated pace of continuing reforms to ensure the least disruption to the stability, authority, and the power of the CPC and central government. • Strengthen China’s internal ideologies in ways that will best achieve the people’s desires, long-term interests, nationalism, and exceptionalism. • Increase the country’s unity and focus towards achieving and securing its long-term national interests as a dominant force and leader within the global community. • Strengthen the country’s power, authority, and influence towards achieving its national security goals and the protection of its global trade routes and commerce. • Transform the country’s image, sense of value, control, and authority by assuming global leadership in the areas of innovation, change, research, development, and the creation of intellectual property and patents. • Utilize this image and authority to gain international acceptance and approval of its ideologies so as to influence other sovereigns to act on behalf of China’s best interests, needs, and desires. • Ensure the CPC and government “adamantly” serve the people and their “working interest” (Ruogu, 2008, PP. 417-428). • Ensure the system of “democratic centralism” promotes trust and supports a “speed and stability” during the course of reforms and development; a balanced “relationship between the central…and local governments”; and, the public as “a collective and as 174
  • 14. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS individuals”. These are to be “coordinated” as a paced process during the achievement of China’s development and economic goals (Ruogu, 2008, PP. 417-428). • Transform China’s current “planned economy” to one that is driven instead by a uniquely Chinese “socialistic market economy” (Ruogu, 2008, PP. 424-425). • Promote Confucian ethics, values, and behavior through: education and tradition; tolerance and assimilation; and, by “advocating frugality” (Ruogu, 2008, PP. 417-428). • Utilize the acceptance of China’s ideologies, image, and power as a basis for partnering with developing and undeveloped countries in beneficial areas of sustainable major infrastructure, trade, and commerce. • Utilize global partnering as a significant force for disruptive innovation and change; and, as an alternative to the Western hegemony. • Demonstrate a national ideology that encourages any country to select its own development path and create suitable institutions that support its national needs and desires to achieve success within the global community. • Demonstrate China’s core ideologies and development strategies are applicable to all countries. Specifically emphasize that those countries that believe their institutions, political ideologies, and forceful strategies that require developing and undeveloped countries change and adopt their form of governance as the best can be proven to be ideologically flawed and destructive (Ruogu, 2008, PP. 430-431). Researcher’s Observations Background For decades after the 1949 rise of communism, China has been known for its poverty and social repression. During this rise China’s has expressed its aggression primarily along the lines 175
  • 15. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS of its internal national development, manufacturing power, the harvesting of its natural resources, and its accumulation of sovereign wealth funds (SWF) or trade reserves (Richards, 2012). This journey has proven to be one that has involved the country’s embrace of a number of significant transformations, innovative experiments, and disruptive change. Some of these reforms have proven to be successful over the years, but others have proven to be steps in the wrong direction. Many of the reforms ultimately proved to be devastating to the country and its people. Many of these failed reforms were adopted as ideologically associated with Maoist principles. As a result, a popular saying in China is that Mao’s reforms got it 70 percent right and 30 percent wrong. Over time the CPC has attempted to correct these errors with more liberal reforms in some areas and more restrict reforms in others. That said, China and its leadership must be credited with the ability to recognize their errors in favor of rapidly shifting to policies that correct the country’s future course and priorities. More recently, China’s experimentation with innovative changes to Maoist writs and doctrine are shifting its aggressive passions and national interests in the direction of external political-economic expansion and a transformation of its internal educational and research systems so as to empower the country to become a world leader in the development of intellectual property and technology. This shift is coupled with China’s interests in building and strengthening its global partnerships; external foreign direct investments; securing natural resources and minerals; and collecting the best intellectual minds in the world; in short, focusing the country on what it needs most to ensure its future growth. This transformation is shifting China’s internal and external policies so as to secure its ability to maintain the lowest possible manufacturing costs and its access to as much of the world’s inexpensive natural and human resources as possible. As such, China is entering an era of significant challenges in order to sustain its future economic growth, power, and authority. 176
  • 16. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS Challenges In order for China to successfully implement its national strategies and related policies, it will need to address challenges on the following levels: Internal: • Improve the efficient utilization of its natural resources, and methods of extraction so as to be more environmentally sensitive; • Introduce increased reforms pertaining to the distribution of wealth between its four classes (to include the grey class); and, enforce its trading and investment market regulations so as to reduce corruption by increasing transparency and trust; • Approach sweeping changes in ideologies and innovation reforms that will allow the country to become more align with the Western Bloc, given some of these changes will include a further liberalization and divergence from China’s rich cultural history, traditions, and social structure; • Integrate reforms in the areas of trade, property, and legal writs into the country’s five year plan that favor increases in entrepreneurism, capitalism, foreign direct investment, education, research, and development; • Address the ever-increasing Western Bloc and European cultural influences that are emerging internally due to cultural, trade, and commerce that are in conflict with China’s traditions. External: • China will need to develop of a worldview that embraces an aggressive pursuit of natural and human resources outside its borders; 177
  • 17. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS • Expand the country’s leadership influence in other regions of the world to include the West and Europe; • Grow exceptionalism and pursue aggressive financial and monetary systems, international trade and commerce, debt management, increased capitalism, and exploitation as a fierce competitor in the global marketplace; • Focus on self-determination and the desire to assume global leadership through influence, authority, and control by establishing a new spirit of entrepreneurism, brand of capitalism, to include intellectual and real property reforms that will serve to influence and lead Western and European cultures. As China is confronted with internal and external challenges that pertain to its national objectives and goals it will need to be centered on sustaining its GDP growth. As such, China will need to consider the implications of its strategies, policies, and plans on its undeveloped, developing and developed global stakeholders that are struggling with financial solvency and economic viability. These stakeholders will need to be provided financial and infrastructural development investments in order to grow their markets in order to become stronger trade and commerce partners with China. In fact, China's decision to continue its economic expansion at the rate of approximately 8 percent per year may need to be downwardly revised if it is to concern itself with having a viable base of customers and stakeholders in which to continue to build an economy. As recommended by numerous global economic analysts, scholars, and historians, China may need to seriously consider adjusting its GDP growth to 3 or 4 percent per year (Beardson, 2013; Madjidi, International policy experience: China., 2013). This may be necessary for China to continue to develop and achieve its political and economic goals in the long term. Absent any adjustments to its current strategies and policies, China is likely to experience significant repercussions in these 178
  • 18. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS areas as a result of the financial crisis being experienced in the West and Europe and as associated with the financial stresses many undeveloped, developing, and developed countries are experiencing. Today approximately, 60 to 70 percent of America’s financial stability is based on credit and consumer buying power as directly supported by trade and commerce debt holdings. “Most of America's buying power is based on credit from China” (CNN, June, 18, 2012). Presently, China is providing 75 to 85 percent of the credit or monetary supply necessary to support the financial stability and the purchasing power of the United States. As a result, the U.S. closely monitors and assesses China’s pure strategy sets and leading indicators. The consequences of China's actions should the country cease to continue this financial support (considering a change in economic and/or monetary policy) would impose liquidity, credit, and debt considerations that would likely result in reducing the GDP of the U.S.. These changes would likely deepen the financial crisis in the U.S. and Europe. In fact, many of the economic analysts and historians that were examined in this study’s SLRs argue such a series of events would increase the degree of financial stress being experienced across the entire global community. Additionally, these experts argue such a negative shift in China’s policy would, at the very least, serve to prolong the collective financial recovery of the global community as well as leave many countries open to deepening social stresses that would result in critically disrupting their political and governmental stability. This poses a question. What would keep China from offering a greater level of financial support to the Western Bloc and Eastern Europe so as to assist recovery? This author argues that his research indicates China is being confronted with significant internal and external social, political, economic, legal, intercultural, technology, and infrastructural challenges that represent a set of substantial transformational problems the country will need to address before it can offer 179
  • 19. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS any additional assistance to the global community. So to a degree facing these challenges will limit China’s ability to take a more aggressive stance towards providing the additional support many in the Western Bloc and Eastern Europe would like. Instead, China needs to carefully measure and balance its external involvements in favor of successfully managing its internal affairs. The speed and care in which this transformation is implemented is critical to China achieving its goals and objectives while at the same time maintaining the critical level of stability the CPC and the government desires. In this author's view China's internal and external political-economic policies, technology, and educational shifts will impose significant challenges to China’s current and future leadership to include a close examination of their future ethical behavior. China’s environmental factors will continue to require close monitoring and the degree of responsiveness necessary to accurately assess and adjust reforms to achieve the country’s goals while maintaining stability. Moreover, this will require the careful construction of strategies and the implementation of policies over the next decade. Due to China’s internal and external transformational stresses, the country is not likely to pursue a policy of significantly increasing its economic and financial support of the global community short of a few exceptions. These exceptions will be in the areas where foreign sovereigns are willing to join its new trade and commerce league and its financial and monetary investment banking systems as members eligible to receive foreign direct investments in major infrastructure projects. In these countries, China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) with its $100 billion in authorized capital together with the $40 billion allocated to the Silk Road Fund, when coupled with a “well designed financial framework that can connect countries along the Belt and Road Initiative to jointly raise funds for infrastructure construction will strengthen the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) ability to successfully offer bonds and financial instruments necessary to fill an $8 trillion gap in financing needed to develop 180
  • 20. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS regional sovereigns between 2014 and 2020” (Bank, 2015; Jia, 2015). Once accomplished, the ADB will contribute in ways that will best serve China’s political, market, resource, monetary, credit, and debt balancing interests, to include its other goals. Policy Summary China’s internal and external growth goals are transforming communism to a uniquely Chinese form of capitalism, resource acquisition, commerce, and international trade debt management. It appears this new form of communism [socialism] is bent on exploiting capitalism to the point that it gains dominance or defeats all global competitors to include “Mother Russia” (Roger Le Roy Miller, Benjamin, & North, 2010, p. 194). Hypotheses The author’s initial research and supporting evidence offers the following hypotheses for further examination and testing pertaining to China’s policy priorities and the direction the country will take over the next 10 to 20 years: • Hypothesis No. 1: The people of China are accepting the CPC’s priorities to move the country’s policies further to the right of traditional Maoist writs and doctrine. • Evidence: o The CPC priorities are focused on increasing the liberalization of its internal and external reforms that include the country’s education system, financial and monetary markets, international trade, and commerce. These reforms will bring the country into better alignment with the West in certain areas of mutual interest. Additionally, the policy shifts are designed to gain wider appeal and global 181
  • 21. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS acceptance of China’s political ideologies, and improve the worldview of its leader’s ethics, authority, and power. • Hypothesis No. 2: China has begun to experience signs of a slowed economic expansion however the CPC has placed new priorities on increasing the country’s future economic growth and ability to build and sustain higher levels of real GDP income in the future from its FDIs. • Evidence: o The CPCs priorities are focused on internal and external reforms that are designed to increase its FDI programs in order to strengthen and grow its global economy, influence, dominance over and access to natural and human resources. o These FDI reforms are focused on strengthening the members of China’s international monetary, finance, investment banking, and debt management initiatives (e.g., BRICS, AIIS, NDB, and the ADB) that have been chartered to build significant and enduring infrastructure in member countries that have stakeholder interests. Capital financing of these countries is designed and structured to be in the form investments with direct returns as oppose to being Western styled budget and debt financing assistance with trade, commerce, and governance overtones. In time, China’s FDI initiatives will provide substantially high economic (GDP) growth with a sustained return on its investments that is realized through trade and commerce with the stakeholders in these initiatives. 182
  • 22. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS • Hypothesis No. 3: China’s laws are protective of intellectual property rights however there is little or no priority for enforcement. • Evidence: o The CPCs priorities are focused on continuing all aspects of its highly aggressive and unique form of capitalism which includes an open, transparent marketplace with few restrictions. o These priorities include the transformation of China’s education, research, and IP development systems. Moreover, these reforms are focused on building an intellectual property capability that will produce the world’s most advanced technologies, and patents that will represent uniquely Chinese products. • Hypothesis No. 4: China’s Internet services are sufficiently secure to conduct confidential corporate transactions however these are prioritized to remain as shared communications with the government. • Evidence: o The CPCs priority is to ensure all corporate enterprise and related digital transactions remain structured, operated, and monitored. This priority is in keeping with the government’s viewpoint that the State is an active partner with full visibility and the ability to authorize, manipulate, or control all electronic communications and corporate transactions. o These policies are widely accepted by the people of China and those enterprise operators that are accustom to the Asian business culture. 183
  • 23. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS The CPC and the government will continue to closely monitor these policies as priorities that are setting the direction of the country. If successfully implemented, these policies will ensure China and its leader’s ethics serve to increase the country’s nationalism, exceptionalism, authority, and advancement towards gaining global dominance. The above hypotheses are subject to the added examination, data collection, analysis, evaluation, and determination of significance as indicators (predictors) of those priorities that are related to establishing the future direction of China over the next 10 to 20 years. These hypotheses and underlying assumptions although supported by this author’s initial research, in-country surveys, SLRs, narratives, and data remain subject to confirmation and validation by consensus through the application of the Delphi process. The next section of this chapter explores this study’s central political research question. The section includes the presentation and analysis of additional data as a collective body of evidence supportive of increasing the significance of this study’s initial observations and findings pertinent to the related hypothesis. 184
  • 24. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS Political Policy “The core of the Chinese development mode is institutional suitability, which, in the final analysis, is not a certain kind of specific mode, but a method, idea, and philosophical idea, emphasizing that change is eternal.” Li Ruogu, Chairman, China Import & Export Bank, 2008, Institutional Suitability and Economic Development, p.430 Research Question No. 1 Are the Chinese people accepting the CPC’s policy changes that are moving the country to the right of its traditional Maoist writs and doctrine? Overview China is continuing to undergo a considerable degree of change and innovation in an effort to position itself as a new political leader within the global community. This interest is supported by the country’s general population, its local and regional provincial officials, and its central government as a goal that is driven by a strong sense of exceptionalism (EX1), nationalism (NA), and institutional suitability (IS) [Saldana analysis coding]. These interests are so strong within China that the CPC and the central government are given great latitudes in timing, the use of resources, and acceptance of continuing restrictive social-political reforms in order for the governing elite and officials to get it right. So far, the People of China have been tolerant and appreciative of the degree of complexity that is confronting its government in light of its new strategies, associated policies, and goals. However, this author’s initial research indicates this degree of tolerance is rapidly being played out. 185
  • 25. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS The series of findings pertaining to the political environment are presented in the following order: empowerment (EM), stability and security (SS), availability and access (AA), civil rights (CR1), property ownership (PO1), and right of enjoyment (RE1). All have been identified as significant in the context of the SPELIT matrix framework and analysis methods selected for this study. Each of the words, phrases, and/or themes has been coded using Saldana’s Method of relevant data discovery, incident measurement, and determination of significance related to reoccurrences. As such, this section provides a summary of the outcomes derived from the author’s SLRs, in-country surveys, accompanying analysis, and assigned coding. Current Policy The current CPC political policies represent a shift in Maoist writs and doctrine towards the support of a form of socialistic capitalism objectives and goals that are uniquely Chinese (Ruogu, 2008). This shift in political strategies and policies are focused to right of traditional Maoism. As a result, the CPCs political ideologies are moving the country from traditional communism to one that favors a more contemporary or liberal socialistic society. This shift has been expressed by the adoption of limited rights and reforms. These include encouraging open social and political forums; and, town meetings as a means for gauging and assessing popular consensus, as well as many others that are referenced in this section of the study. As the CPC shifts its political ideologies, the scholars and analysts reviewed in this study’s SLRs argue the CPC will need to successfully address transitions in the areas that have been mapped and analyzed by applying Saldana’s word, phrase, and theme codes as indicated: • Empowerment (EM) : increased public access to government processes and empowerment; 186
  • 26. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS • Stability and Security (SS): increased stability and security of the people and the government through equalized and improved standards; • Access and Availability (AA): adopt a shared and more fairly balanced access and availability to social, political, economic, legal, and technological advancements and benefits; • Civil-Rights (CR1): increase working class property rights to include fair and equal distribution of the nation’s wealth, retirement, and health care benefits; • Property Ownership (PO1): ensure all classes share a more fair and balanced ownership in the country’s increased standard of living; • Right of Enjoyment (RE1): ensure all mainland Chinese are sharing fair and balanced increases in their level of enjoyment of the country’s achievements such as increased: o access to higher education (EU1); o access to better, more skilled, and higher paying jobs (EB1); o health care and retirement benefits (EB2); o Environmental responsibility, management, care, and conservation of natural resources (ER) Although many of these reforms appear to be connected to the country’s political strategies and policies, they all influence or drive the CPC’s economic strategies as well. Deng Xiaoping stated, “the correct attitude” should be that first, “we should let [the people and foreign investors] make money” and then second, a belief in China’s ideologies and, “patriotism” will follow. “We should not require them to love the country first, and make money…second.” (Ruogu, 2008, p. 415). That said, this author’s investigation into Deng’s strategy of allowing the 187
  • 27. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS people and foreigners to first accumulate wealth and then become accepting of China’s political ideologies and system are leading to the emergence of numerous disruptive trends specific to social, political, and economic fairness and equalities. Currently, the CPCs policies are creating a substantial middle and upper class with significant degrees of disparity in the level of empowerment, access, availability, rights, ownership, and enjoyment. Over time these disparities will force a distinction between classes that will increase the cultural stresses between the lower classes in the west, northwest, and central rural regions of the country with the urban regions in the north and southern coastal areas. Unless the CPC creates a series of reform policies that successfully address and enforce a rebalancing of these disparities in ways that are perceived to be fairer and more balanced, stresses between the classes in these diverse regions will continue to grow. Ultimately, these stresses will cause significant stability issues between the local, regional, and the national government to include the CPC if they remain unaddressed (Li, Qiang, & Jie, 2008; Luo & Mary, 2010). As these differences increase and force even greater separation between classes some of the constructs that are fundamental to the foundation of Marx, Engels, and Lenin that drove Russia's social revolution and subsequently influenced China will serve to renew the symptomatic causes of social unrest and conflict that were causational to China’s original adoption of communistic ideologies and doctrine. Given the emergence of such a condition, the CPC could be faced with a degree of instability that would force the party and central government to enact sweeping reforms in order to reverse its course. Such a reversal would no doubt have significant implications pertaining to the achievement of many of China’s publicized future internal and external desires, expectations, and goals. 188
  • 28. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS ASAP OBSERVATION POINT 40: OBSERVING THE CULTURAL EXPECTATIONS OF A COUNTRY’S PEOPLE: When designing your ASAP be sure to include observations of the cultural expectations of the host country and its people. This deeper inquiry should be conducted into how the country and its people view themselves in the context of their position, power, authority, and dominance within their geographic region and within the global community. Identifying these worldviews will assist you in understanding the influences, characteristics, and drivers of their culture and offer insight and perspective when comparing their culture and ideologies to your own. The CPCs shifts in strategies and policies as argued by the scholars and analysts reviewed in this study’s SLRs are validated when compared to the author’s in-country discoveries as reflected in the data offered by its Chinese respondents. The surveys indicated this group feared a distinct possibility that once the CPC reaches its goal of overtaking the U.S. GDP (placing China 1st among the global community) the central government may reverse its present economic and political strategies and policies. If this concern holds true, the policies that are allowing the country’s classes to accumulate wealth may be reformed in favor of nationalizing these new assets so as to capture and redirect them towards better serving the needs and interests of the central government and the CPC. In summary, China's political and economic policies are coupled and focused towards a national agenda. Presently, the CPC’s political strategies are aggressive and appear to some extent to be centered on addressing the risks associated with the stability of the People’s Communist Party of China as it pushes to expand its external interests through the application of capitalist and economic mechanisms. This author would argue that these shifts in political strategy are focused towards increasing China’s external influences that are beneficial to the country and its people. However, should these strategies prove to lose public support or the “willing consent” of the people in the future, the policies could result in placing the stability of the country at “risk” (Smith, 2013, pp. 35, 53-59). 189
  • 29. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS Pure Strategy The current political strategies being applied in support of the CPC’s policies are complex and address a number of environmental factors in an attempt to influence the future direction of the country over the next few years. It is important to note that the CPC continually monitors, assesses, and evaluates the effectiveness of these policies. In fact, the CPC and central government revise and adjust national policies regularly on a five year basis and often issues writs to reform those that are ineffective or not suitable. The present CPC strategy is to find an acceptable balance between its present internal focus and one that places emphasis on increased external or outwardly aggressive expansion. This change in strategy is being expressed in terms of the development of strategies and policies that support the country’s increasing external objectives, needs, and goals that must be achieved in order for China to continue its internal development and expansion (at least for now). This author argues it is critical for China to strike a successful balance between these internal and external strategies and supporting policies in order for it to continue to meet or exceed its growth needs, goals, and desires. Does this mean the global community may be facing the emergence of another colonial hegemony? Evidence collected to date does not support this assumption. Over its extensive history, China has never demonstrated a continuing outward expression of imperialism or the desire to create a global colonial empire. It has, however, been deeply involved from time to time in global inquiries and experiential learning as a way of seeking self-improvement and advancement. To this extent at one time in China’s history it maintained the world’s largest 190
  • 30. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS maritime fleet. However, after a short period of discovery and service to the country this fleet was retired. ASAP OBSERVATION POINT 41: LEARNING THROUGH GLOBAL TRAVELS AND CULTURAL EXPERIENCES: Throughout history many cultures have journeyed to distance lands to study the cultures, characteristics, and the unique advantages enjoyed by others. Often these journeys were tasked by the sovereign to seek treasures, commodities, minerals, or inventions that would add value and wealth to its government. In the case of China, this approach has been used frequently throughout its history as a means of assessing and comparing its wealth, values, knowledge, and dominance against other sovereigns. Often these experiential learning journeys have served to introduce disruptive change and innovation into China’s culture, expectations, and goals to include reshaping the suitability of its governance. One component of the CPC’s pure strategy-sets is to pursue a significant degree of change and innovation in an effort to position the country as a new political leader within the global community. As such, its political policies are coupled to a strategy of expanding the country’s political strengths to the point that it achieves global dominance through economic means as measured by GDP and as recognized by international institutes and organizations that monitor and evaluate index performance. Another of the CPC’s pure strategy-set components is to address and effectively reduce social and political stresses due to the rapid degree of innovation, change, and restructuring of China’s local, provincial, and central governments. This strategy is aimed at reducing regional tensions between the lower and middle classes so as to better align them with the goals and needs of the upper (ruling-elite) class. This realignment strategy is ultimately intended to reinforce the stability of the CPC and the central government. Conditions of unfair and unequal distribution of social and political liberties and influence between classes have in China’s past history created significant unrest and revolution that have led to highly disruptive change and innovation. China’s history of rebellions over social and political injustice is similar to those that have taken place in Russia. (See Russia’s Red Rebellion.) Moreover, it could be argued that the CPC and the 191
  • 31. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS central government have excellent memory retention pertaining to the implications of dealing with highly-disruptive social activism. Last, this study focuses on an argument that China’s pure political strategies and policies have greater significance and increased utility when they are best align and applicable to the greater global community. This pure strategy applies a construct wherein any country that believes its thinking and institutions are the best and do not need change will inevitably lead to becoming rigid if not backward. Accordingly, China’s leaders believe that over time any country that embraces these characteristics will ultimately experience social, political, economic and leadership failures if not the collapse of their entire system of governance (Ruogu, 2008, pp. 430- 431). In short, the CPC embraces a pure mixed-strategy that is continually subject to change and innovation in order for its political objectives and goals to be achieved. This study’s initial SLRs and in-country survey data provide findings and observations are supportive of positive outcomes related to many of China’s political strategies and policies. These can be summarized as mixed-strategy priorities that significantly characterize and influence the development of policies that are shaping the course of desired events and outcomes that are driving the direction of the country towards achieving its objectives and goals in ways that are uniquely Chinese. These pure strategies include China strengthening its long term prospects for success by adapting to regional diversities and by spreading its risks over an ever-increasing network of global partners or stakeholders that hold similar ideological, economic, development, trade and commerce interests (worldviews) that are supported by dominant strategies and inter- dependency. 192
  • 32. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS Other scholars and analysts examined in this study’s SLRs argue that by China continuing the present high-rate of growth, it is rushing towards a negative outcome or a “point of eventual collapse by design” due to increased complexity and scale (West, 2011). Mixed-Strategy Priorities China’s present pure mixed-strategy priorities are highly complex and integral to the achievement of a myriad of national needs and desires. However, this author has placed limits on this research by identifying a short list of the country’s pure strategy components that have been identified in the initial research as relevant. These limitations assist in reducing and simplifying those components of each mixed-strategy that are associated with each area of interest or environmental factor that infers significance (Turoff & Linstone, 2002). As such, the study explores only those mixed-strategies and components that meet this study’s relevancy criteria. These mixed-strategy components were used to measure and assess the validity of each of the associated hypothesis. Each of the pure mixed-strategy components that have been determined to be significant from the SLRs and in-country data analysis supports the following CPC policies that include: • Monitoring internal and external environments so as to adopt a slow and calculated pace of reforms that are suitable to the Chinese people in order to maintain the stability, security, authority, and power of the CPC and the central government. • Strengthening China’s nationalism, exceptionalism, and suitable institutional ideologies. • Increasing China’s long-term internal and external interests so as to achieve a dominant role within the global community. • Strengthen its political and social power, authority, and influence so as to achieve the country’s national goals and leadership dominance within the global community. 193
  • 33. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS • Building the country’s image and sense of value, ethics, trust, control, and authority with it stakeholders, partners, and the broader international community. • Utilize China’s new image and authority to gain international acceptance and approval of its ideologies so as to induce its stakeholders and partners to act on its behalf. • Utilize the power of China’s ideologies, image, and value as a global stakeholder with undeveloped, developing, and developed countries through large-scale infrastructure programs, beneficial trade, and commerce partnering as a significant force for disruptive innovation and change as an alternative to Western hegemony. Issue(s) China’ path of aggressive expansion has and is continuing to raise the attention and concerns of many of the developed sovereigns in the global community. These concerns primarily range in the area of China’s developing interests in: (1) expanding its ideological alliances and partnerships; (b) the equitable treatment of its people, civil-rights, liberties, empowerment, and standard of living; (c) the stability of the people and government due to rapid reforms, policy changes, and innovations; and, (d) the political liberalization of a uniquely Chinese form of aggressive market capitalism. These are better defined in the following: 1. Expanding ideological alliances and partnerships: China is facing new challenges in its role as a global leader considering the ever-increasing strength of its international partners as it succeeds in realigning traditional allies of the West with its ideological strategies and policies in the areas of political, economic, development, trade, and commerce. 2. Equitable treatment of the people: Mainland Chinese view their life circumstances as improving under these new policies. This may become an issue as China’s internal and external successes inspire its people to increase their proportional share in the liberties and social 194
  • 34. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS empowerment that are commonly coupled with improved living standards. The challenge of these new policies that are considerably to the right of Mao’s original doctrine will be to control the redistribution of wealth and empowerment between the classes while maintaining political and social stability. 3. Stability of the people and government: Continuing reforms or modifications to the present political policies will need to be developed by the CPC in order to accomplish its goals. These changes represent additional challenges to the country’s political stability. As such, the continuing reforms will require careful monitoring during the development of policy, implementation, enforcement, and measurement of the reforms. Once accomplished, the CPC will need to ensure effective reevaluations and readjustments to these policies. To successfully accomplish this, the CPC will need to exercise extreme caution in adopting the appropriate reforms so as to ensure they are properly synchronized, measured, continuously re-evaluated, adjusted, and properly paced in order to maintain public suitability, acceptance, and stability. 4. Political liberalization: The present CPC strategies and policies support a form of decentralized communism (socialism) that exploits market capitalism to the point that it defeats or gains dominance over its global competitors to include “Mother Russia”. This study’s SLR scholars and analysts argue that over time this style of liberalized aggressive capitalism will increase stress among many developed countries. In fact, stresses between China and Russia in the past have now shifted to impose new challenges that are centered on the West. Presently China and Russia find if mutually beneficial to hold a common course of interests that are unique from those held by the Western Bloc. 195
  • 35. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS Overall, China's political strategies and policies as established by the CPC are aggressive and set to a timeline that appears to be risking the stability of the government as it presses to expand its form of market capitalism. This includes opening the country to increased foreign cultural influences and the integration of their positive characteristics into China’s culture in unique ways that will either strengthen the country and increase the empowerment of the CPC through a series of planned reforms so as to ensure China’s desire for exceptionalism and long term goals are achieved; or, these influences will serve to drive ever-increasing challenges and disruptive stresses internal to China and external to the country with its developed partners. High-Value Objective(s) (HVOs) These issues would appear to shape pure a mixed-strategy set that is focused on developing policy reforms that emphasize slowing China’s political expansionism in favor of increasing its international leadership and diplomacy in ways that are less aggressive. Given these considerations, this study identifies HVOs that provide for increased alignments with the Western Bloc and Eastern European that will increase mutually dominant dependencies by applying mixed-strategies that are supportive of embracing established standards, mechanisms of diplomacy, and the mutual global interests of each. In addition, the suggested HVOs for China support increasing its level of ethics, trust, and confidence to include validating its true intensions and commitments to contribute positively to the Asian region and the broader global community. Analyses were conducted of this study’s SLRs and HISS data to determine the significance and or relevance of the HVOs and related VARs. It was determined that “on a high level, the corpus is focused on China and country-level policy strategies for shifts and changes in its development along political, economic, social, cultural, legal, technology, and environmental 196
  • 36. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS verticals.” Further, goals and priorities for China's government were analyzed “across lines of potential reforms and their implications on the global community, as well as other internal and external factors. Transformational trends are also analyzed, as well as their bearings on innovation, ideologies, and resources” (Dimkpa, 2025). Impact on the study’s research and the suggested approach to experiential learning for international students was also explored and examined. Figure 8: Range of Potential HVOs and Outcomes (Saldana applied) Note: Each of the HVOs mapped in the figure above have been assigned estimated utility (EU) or payoff values (EUPs) based on the constructs Nash’s Equilibrium Theory of gaming. The EUPs assigned to each to the pure strategy components represents the highest and best payoff for each player group. The game is designed to assist the level of significance in a determination of finding given the significant data and relevance discovered from conducting Saldana Method of pattern analysis. 197
  • 37. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS HVO Significance and Determination of Findings 1. A classification performance score of 67 percent was determined from the analysis. This indicates the DMS experiments and testing validated the code and theme classifications used by this author to define each HVO. “This proves, beyond reasonable doubt, that the approach of the author in selecting the said classification is both scientific and appropriate” (Dimkpa, 2025). 2. A higher score would have indicated a higher degree of binding between the research focus (research ideas) and the selected classification codes and themes; however, the calculated score suggests a strong binding exists between the research focus, variance inquiries, and the codes and themes identified. After identifying the significance of the words, phrases, and themes discovered by applying Saldana’s Method of analysis to this study’s SLRs, in-country surveys, narratives, and data this author argues the following HVOs are sufficiently relevant for additional examination by applying Nash’s Equilibrium or Gaming Theory: 1. Global Profile (HVO1): Improve trust, ethics, and the integration of diverse worldviews. Lower global concerns and reactions over implications related to China’s interests. To accomplish this an estimated utility or best player outcome value must be assigned within a given range (RNG) where 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃1 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻1 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {3, 0, -3, -3, 4, -1} and 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃2 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻1 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {3, 1, 3, 5, 4, 4} with 5 equaling the highest payoff or estimated utility and -3 equaling the lowest for each player group related to the pure strategy. See Table 9, Mixed-Stategy Outcome Probabilities: Political, p. 202 (Castro, 2015; Chao, 1969; Huff, 2015). 198
  • 38. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS 2. Nationalism (HVO2): Increase nationalism and goals that are internally suitable. To accomplish this an estimated utility or best player outcome value must be assigned within a given range (RNG) where 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃1 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻2 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {0, 0, -1, 0, 2, 0} and 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃2 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻2 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 4} with 4 equaling the highest payoff or estimated utility and -1 equaling the lowest for each player group related to the pure strategy. See Table 9, Mixed-Stategy Outcome Probabilities: Political, p. 202 (Castro, 2015; Chao, 1969; Huff, 2015). 3. Dominance (HVO3): Increase political leadership, power, authority, and global dominance. To accomplish this an estimated utility or player outcome value must be assigned within a given range (RNG) where 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃1 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻3 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {-3, -1, -2, -5, -4, -3} and 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃2 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻3 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {3, 2, 2, 5, 4, 4} with 5 equaling the highest payoff or estimated utility and -5 equaling the lowest for each player group related to the pure strategy. See Table 9, Mixed-Stategy Outcome Probabilities: Political, p. 202 (Castro, 2015; Chao, 1969; Huff, 2015). 4. Alliances (HVO4): Create political stakeholder alignments supportive of China’s expansion strategies, agreements, and sovereign partnerships. This includes creating alliances with countries that are closely associated with the Western Bloc and Western Europe. [The West views China’s political expansionism as intrusive on these relationships and disruptive to the policies they have in place.] To accomplish this an estimated utility or best player outcome value must be assigned within a given range (RNG) where 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃1 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻4 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {-3, 0, -5, -3, -3, -3} and 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃2 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻4 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {5, 1, 5, 5, 4, 4} with 5 equaling the highest payoff or estimated utility and -5 equaling the lowest for each player group related to the pure strategy. See Table 9, Mixed- Stategy Outcome Probabilities: Political, p. 202 (Castro, 2015; Chao, 1969; Huff, 2015). 199
  • 39. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS 5. Transformation (HVO5): Transform political and economic focus from manufacturing to one of creating intellectual property, patents, and advanced technology production. To accomplish this an estimated utility or best player outcome value must be assigned within a given range (RNG) where 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃1 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻5 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {4, 2, -4, -3, -2, -2} and 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃2 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻5 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4} with 4 equaling the highest payoff or estimated utility and -4 equaling the lowest for each player group related to the pure strategy. See Table 9, Mixed-Stategy Outcome Probabilities: Political, p. 202 (Castro, 2015; Chao, 1969; Huff, 2015). 6. Exceptionalism (HVO6): Transition educational systems to increase access and focus on science, research, and the development of advanced discoveries, exceptionalism, and production. To accomplish this an estimated utility or player outcome value must be assigned within a given range (RNG) where 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃1 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻6 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {-1, 0, -3, -3, -2, 4} and 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃2 ∪ 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻6 ∪ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = {4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4} with 4 equaling the highest payoff or estimated utility and -3 equaling the lowest for each player group related to the pure strategy. See Table 9, Mixed-Stategy Outcome Probabilities: Political, p. 202 (Castro, 2015; Chao, 1969; Huff, 2015). Classification Performance Score Significance The HVO analysis, testing, and associated significance determination and findings indicated a Classification Performance Score (CPS) of (4/6) x 100 = 67 percent (See Appendix R). 1. The classification performance score of 67 percent (B+) signifies that the experiment validated the classification used by the author in the definition of the HVOs. This proves, beyond 200
  • 40. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS reasonable doubt, that the approach of the author in selecting the said classification is both scientific and appropriate (Dimkpa, 2025). 2. A higher score would have indicated a higher degree of binding between the research focus (research ideas) and the selected classifications; however the logical score calculated suggests strong binding between the research focus and selected classifications (Dimkpa, 2025). The value ranges of the HVOs allow the EUPs to be assigned proportionally so as to represent the best outcome of each opposing player. In this case: Player Group One, or the Western Bloc and Eastern Europe sovereigns; and, Player Group Two, or the Asian Bloc, Middle and Far East, Africa, Latin America, and the Western European sovereigns. Given this, a third player group was additionally identified. Player Group Three or other sovereigns that impose influence on political strategy and policy play. This group consists of developing and undeveloped sovereigns that are essentially non-committed to any long-term alliances or agreements with either the East or the West. This group of fence setters is relatively powerless. Due to this group’s small size and relative influence or dominance as related to their potential impact on Player Group One and/or Player Group Two; Player Group Three was marginalized as related to the detailed game play analysis that follows (See Figure 9: Mixed- Strategy Multidimensional Interpretative, paragraph B. Adaptive Notes (1-4)). 201
  • 41. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS Mixed-Strategies, Game Play, and Estimated Utility Outcomes (Nash applied) Table 9: Mixed-Strategy Outcome Probabilities: Political Factors, Findings, and Implications Source: Mitroff, 1975; Nash, J., 1928; Spaniel, W., 2015; Turoff, M., 2002. Adaptation and original data: Huff, P.D., 2015; MS PPT, Graphics chaps-1-5 rev 150829-01. Determining Pure Mixed-Strategy Outcomes: Solving for: 1. Any tuple represents a pure strategy that can be selected and expressed as (x,y),(x*,y), (x*,y*), or (x,y*) which represents an ordered set of structured data consisting of comma-separated values that constitute a given mixed-strategy that can in turn be utilized in a program or mathematical expression and computed in an operating system that assists in conducting outcome analysis. 2. The outcome probabilities for any two tuples or mixed-strategies may be different. 3. Total number of tuples generated from this study’s initial data = 36 4. Total number of players considered = 3 5. Total number of players assessed that infer significance to game outcome = 2 6. Number of game players represented in the matrix analysis = 2 7. (X*) or (Y*) indicates the best response (BR) and estimated highest utility or payoff among those outcomes that are align in the vertical axis of each category or HVOn for either Player Group 1 (X) or Player Group 2 (Y). 202
  • 42. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS Testing Pure Mixed-Strategy Outcome Probabilities: Test for two tuple outcomes representing any randomly selected pure mixed-strategy. Given PG2 and Pjpn or estimated highest or best payoffs: EUHVO1,1 = EUHVO3,1 EUHVO1,1 (3) = 𝜎𝜎HVO1,2 (1) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO1,3 (3) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO1,4 (5) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO1,5 (4)+ (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO1,6 (4)EUHVO3,1 (3) = 𝜎𝜎HVO3,2 (2) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO3,3 (2) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO3,4 (5) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO E3,5 (4) + (1 – 𝜎𝜎HVO3,6 (4) P2pn = Player Group 2 probability for tuple {HVO1, HVO1} EU: 𝜎𝜎 HVO1,1 (3)+ (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO1,2 )(1) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO1,3 )(3) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO1,4 )(5) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO1,5 )(4) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO1,6 )(4) = 𝜎𝜎 HVO3,1 (3) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO3,2 )(2)+ (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO3,3 )(2) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO3,4 )(5) + (1 - 𝜎𝜎HVO3,5 )(4) + (1 – 𝜎𝜎HVO3,6 )(4)3𝜎𝜎 HVO1,1 + 1 - 1𝜎𝜎HVO1,2 + 3 - 3𝜎𝜎HVO1,3 + 5 - 5𝜎𝜎HVO1,4 + 4 - 4𝜎𝜎HVO1,5 + 4 - 4𝜎𝜎HVO1,6 = 3𝜎𝜎 HVO3,1 + 2 - 2𝜎𝜎HVO3,2 + 2 - 2𝜎𝜎HVO3,3 + 5 - 5𝜎𝜎HVO3,4 + 4 - 4𝜎𝜎HVO3,5 + 4 – 4𝜎𝜎HVO3,6 20𝜎𝜎 HVO1,1 + 17 = 20𝜎𝜎 HVO3,1 + 17𝜎𝜎 HVO1,1 = 𝜎𝜎 HVO3,1 = 1/1 ∴ The probability of tuple HVO1,1 occurring is equal to tuple HVO 3,1 Pure Mixed-Strategy Outcome Probability Finding: Resultant Outcome: • If Player Group 2 engages in a Global Profile strategy move, there is a 1/1 probability that Player Group 2 will also engage in a Dominance strategy move; with the additional observation that the dominant (HVO3,1) move will be highly resisted by Player Group 1 representing a mixed-strategy dependency. Theory Adaptation, Definitions, and Guidance: A. Table 9, IESDS Codes: 1. Green Outlined Tuples: Identifies the most sensible maximum payoff (Ppn ) strategies for each player. A total of four have been identified in the analysis table. 2. Blue Outlined Tuples: Identifies dominant strategy moves that are the most favorable for each player but are not necessarily the most efficient. The objective of these moves is to achieve the highest estimated utility or player payoff ( Pipn, Pjpn, or Pkpn ) as noted in Nash’s theory. For example: HVO3 and HVO4 are weakly dominated strategies for player 1, so we can remove them from the analysis. 3. Special Note: Blue outlined tuples should be removed immediately from further play consideration and analysis. In these cases Player Y’s optimal strategy infers dependency on player X’s choice (e.g., both groups best response (BR)). This results in the denial or blocking of the opposing player’s ability to achieve their desired strategic goals. No basis of finding in this study’s initial data validates the assumptions that the dominant strategy tuples represent the BR or EUP as shown in the table, or that these are strictly dominated strategy moves for each of the player groups (See M.1.-4.). However, such evidence may be discovered upon further investigation. 4. (*) Asterisks indicate Player Group’s BRs within each tuple in a given category: These are indicated in each pair of HVO tuples or pure strategies for each Player Group within a vertical HVO category, e.g. for Player Group 2 (PG2) BRs = {HVO1 = 5*, HVO2 = 4*, HVO3 = 5*, HVO4 = 5*, HVO5 = 4*, and HVO6 = 4*} 5. BR: Best responses are color coded to Player Group1 (PG1) or Player Group 2 (PG2). 6. MBR: Indicates mutual best response for both Player Groups as associated with a given mixed-strategy (See J.1.-6.), e.g. where PG1 and PG2 MBRs = {HVO1,5 = 4*, 4*; and HVO6,6 = 4*,4*}. 7. ZSG: Indicates zero sum game plays (See P.1.-2.). 8. NE: Indicates conditions that meet the criteria for Nash’s Equilibrium (See I.1.-2.). 203
  • 43. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS Figure 9:Mixed-Strategy Multidimensional Interpretative: (Plotted Outcomes) Tuples: (HVO1 ,HVO5)= Global, Transformation (HVO5 ,HVO1)= Transformation, Global (HVO6 ,HVO6)= Exceptionalism, Exceptionalism n Tuples = 7 Nonresistive Neutral strategies + 4 Low resistive strategies + 4 Moderately resistive strategies + 18 Highly resistive strategies = 36 Source: Mitroff, 1975; Nash, J., 1928; Spaniel, W., 2015; Turoff, M., 2002. Adaption and original data by: Huff, P.D., 2015;MS PPT, Graphics chaps-1-5 rev 150829-01. Also see Carrol, Douglas J., and Wish, Myron, Multidimensional Scaling: Models, Methods, and Relations to Delphi, or (MDS) as a technique to deal with problems of measuring and predicting human judgment (Carrol, 1979). Given: 1. Pi,jpn = Total BR Outcomes; or total Nondominant-Medium Quadrant outcomes; (See notes: C.9-11) 2. P1p0 = (x*,y) Tuplesn = P1p0 = 1 Tuple = 1/1 3. P2p0 = (x,y*) Tuplesn = P2p0 = 0 Tuples = 0/1 4. P1p0 + P2p0 = 1 Tuple outcomes Given: 1. Pi,kpn = Total BR Outcomes; or total Nondominant-Medium Quadrant outcomes; (See notes: C.9-11) 2. P1p1 = (x*,y) Tuplesn = P1p1 = 1 Tuple = 1/3 3. P2p1 = (x,y*) Tuplesn = P2p1 = 2 Tuples = 2/3 4. P1p1 + P2p1 = 3 Tuple outcomes Given: 1. Pi,kpn = Total BR Outcomes; or total Dominant-High Quadrant outcomes; (See notes: C.9-11) 2. P1p2 = (x*,y) Tuplesn = P1p1 = 1 Tuple = 4/10 3. P2p2 = (x,y*) Tuplesn = P2p1 = 6 Tuples = 6/10 4. P1p2 + P2p2 = 10 Tuple outcomes Given: 1. Pi,kpn = Total BR Outcomes; or total Dominant-High Quadrant outcomes; (See notes: C.9-11) 2. P1p3 = (x*,y) Tuplesn = P1p1 = 1 Tuple = 0/8 3. P2p3 = (x,y*) Tuplesn = P2p1 = 2 Tuples = 8/8 4. P1p3 + P2p3 = 8 Tuple outcomes Given: 1. Pi,kpn = Total BR Outcomes; or total Nondominant-Medium Quadrant outcomes; (See notes: C.9-11) 2. P1p4 = (x*,y) Tuplesn = P1p1 = 0 Tuple = 0/3 3. P2p4 = (x,y*) Tuplesn = P2p1 = 3 Tuples = 3/3 4. P1p4 + P2p4 = 3 Tuple outcomes 204
  • 44. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS B. Adaptation Notes: 1. The proposed high-value objectives (HVOs) are examined for significance by applying a modified form of Nash Equilibrium Theory as a test of each pure strategy. 2. Player Group One = Partners in the Western Bloc; Eastern European; North, Central, and Latin (South) America. 3. Player Group Two = Partners in the Asian Bloc, Middle & Far East, Western European, South Africa, and Latin America. 4. Player Group Three = International sovereigns without standing partner or stakeholder commitments to either Player Group One or Player Group Two. As such, PG3 represents (sovereigns) that have split alliances between PG1 and PG2 with little or low collective global impact due to the scale of their economy, geographic location, or natural resources. (After assessment and evaluation PG3 was omitted from play.) C. Player Groups and Other Coding: 1. Player Group One = PG1 2. Player Group Two = PG2 3. Player Group Three = PG3 4. PG1 = X strategies (Coded Blue) 5. PG2 = Y strategies (Coded Red) 6. IESDS = Iterated Elimination of Strictly Dominated Strategies. 7. EU = Estimated utility of a player’s given strategic move. 8. EUP = Estimated utility of a player’s best response (BR) payoff value. 9. Pi = PG1, so that PG1’s maximum payoff = Pip (Nash, 1928) 10. Pj = PG2, so that PG2’s maximum payoff = Pjp (Nash, 1928) 11. Pk = PG3, so that PG3’s maximum payoff = Pkp (Nash, 1928) D. Estimated Utility (EU) or Player Estimated Utility Payoff (EUP) or Pnp Value Relationships: (Values associated with each player group’s strategy move; See Table for Minimax move ranges to include paragraph E below.) 1. EU Max. (positive) move = 5 2. EU Indifferent (neutral) move or a pass = 0 3. EU Mini. (negative) blocks the opposing player’s move, neutralizing or defeating the opposing player’s desired outcome = -5 E. Strategy Coding and Estimated Utility (EU) or Estimated Utility Payoff (EUP) Minimax ranges within the sample space: 1. HVO1 = Global Profile = {5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3} = Sample space, or range (RNG) possible outcomes. 2. HVO2 = Nationalism = {4, 3, 2, 1 ,0, -1} 3. HVO3 = Dominance = {5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3, -4, -5} 4. HVO4 = Alliances = {5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3, -4, -5} 5. HVO5 = Transformation = {4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3, -4} 6. HVO6 = Exceptionalism = {4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3} F. Extensive Advanced Strategic Form Game (EASFG): Theory and rules as defined that limited this study and the examination of strategically interdependent organizational behavior: 1. Strategic Interdependence: what one player does effects the outcome of the other player(s). 2. Player Outcomes: The game is not just about winning and losing (although it could be). 3. Finite Players: The game is considered to have a finite number of players that have been identified as Player Groups. In this case the game involves three such player groups that have been identified as PG1, PG2, and PG3. However, PG3 is not included in the game for the reasons listed in B.4. PG3s strategic moves do not significantly affect any probable outcomes related to those made by PG1 or PG2. 4. Finite Strategy Sets: The number of proposed pure strategy-sets is considered finite. 5. Finite Games: Finite games always have at least one equilibrium point (EP). 6. Mixed-Strategy: A mixed-strategy is a probability distribution over two or more pure strategies. This game is a mixed-strategy game with what are considered to be a finite set of strategies coded as high-value objectives (HVOs). There are six HVOs defined in the game for analysis and testing. 7. Design: The game design provides a methodology to identify significant factors, influencers, drivers and potential implications or outcomes that are associated with each player group’s strategy moves and supporting policies. 8. Functionality: The game assists in identifying the logic and strategy of interdependent or situational dependencies that are extremely complicated and at times require fast decision making. Given the nature of the influencers and drivers of international strategies and supporting policies, the game can be applied to assist sovereign actors in determining pure strategy sets that best achieve the highest estimated utility, payoffs, and desired outcomes. 9. Measurement and Analysis: By global sovereigns applying Nash’s theory they have an opportunity to assign accounting tools to measure, track, assess, and analyze potential global strategies for the purpose of determining an estimated level of significance or utility related to each move and its potential implications. 10. Interactive Behavior: The applied theory offers policy makers and researchers the ability to draw parallels from one situation to another within the domain of the interactive behaviors associated with the assumed HVOs (In this case the HVOs associated between PG1 and PG2 as represented in the table). 205
  • 45. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS 11. Pure strategy: Under Nash’s Equilibrium (Game Theory) this condition is met when the players do not randomize between two or more strategy moves. In short, the strategy move of one player is dependent on the move of the other. This design and assumption is critical to setting the game. In the case of this study the assumptions, EUPs, and analysis are predicated on this study’s SLRs, narratives, and in-country surveys. All HVO category strategies are essentially influenced if not driven by what the opposing player does. 12. Non-pure strategies (NPS): These conditions are indicated in the table where a stated value is equal to zero (NPS = 0). The table identifies seven instances of occurrence where this condition is met, e.g. tuples {HVO1,HVO2; HVO2, HVO1}. 13. Limitations: The applied theory, rules, and game limitations are covered in the following paragraphs: H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, and Q. G. Purpose: 1. Determine the most probable strategies with the highest payoffs associated with each player’s moves. In this case the focus is on PG2 or China as related to identifying the most probable priorities and direction the country will take in the future. 2. Assess the probabilities associated with the pure and mixed-strategies applied by players and related outcomes. 3. Determine a finding by analyzing potential outcomes from a unique perspective as represented by antagonistic (negative), indifferent (neutral), or protagonistic (positive) interests which affect an opposing player group or in this case Player Group (PG1) or the Western Bloc; and, Player Group (PG2) or China’s ability to maximize its EUP by acting out strategy sets or moves that can minimize/maximize China’s desired outcomes. 4. Analyze a finite number of competitive influencers that may affect player outcomes (See table). The analysis is designed to identify, assess, and evaluate the desired outcomes of the two controlling players in the game, and to additionally assess the effect of outside third party (player) interests. These interests can represent critical influencers to each player’s strategies, leading priorities, and the direction each player will take. 5. The game is integrated into this study’s assessment of the HVOs as related to determining the direction China will take as it is influenced by its government, people; and, by outsider interests in the global community (See figure below). By applying Nash’s Theory, this study undertakes an examination of what effect these forces will have in determining China’s future priorities and its direction over the next ten years. Figure 10: Nash’s Equilibrium Theory (A Three-Player Game) Source: Nash, J.F., 1928, A Comparsion of Treatments of A Duoploy Situation, p. 141- 153; adapted by Huff, P.D., 2015 as associated with this study’s analysis of a noncooperative two player game situationally conditional to Nash’s best-reply analysis under Von Neumann’s minimax theorem. “As a minimum requirement for a pair of strategies to be a candidate for the solution of a two-person (player) game, Von Neumann required that each player’s strategy [move must] represent the best reply to the other. Such a pair of strategies…called a Nash Equilibria, is basic to noncooperative game theory” (Nash, 1928, p. x-xi). Nash describes aspects of the above three player model in his Simple Three-Person Poker Game constructs as applied under the conditions of a non-cooperative game that utilizies a set of strategy choices that are pure and/or mixed (Nash, 1928, p. 105-295) Indifferent Influencers (Experts/Scholars/Analysts) II NIPositive Influencers (Controllers/ Leaders) Negative Influencers (Users/ Consumers) PI Stability & Analysis: The game must include the following player/group interests/desires as potential EUPs or outcomes: PI = Positive influencers NI = Negative influencers II = Indifferent influencers Protagonist Player Group (PG1) Antagonist Player Group (PG2) 206
  • 46. CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS H. Rules, limits, and assumptions: 1. Non-Cooperative Gaming: Player Groups take turns moving as in war, invasion plans, and other competitive games where the other player group views the moves as potentially threatening or non-cooperative. 2. Cooperative Commitments: The game assumes player group moves are consistent with their member’s strategies or desires and supported by alliances, commitments, and agreements. 3. Comparative Statics: The game is not designed to identify comparative statics or comparative outcomes before and after a change in some exogenous parameter or a pure-strategy that has origins outside of the modelled limits. 4. Player Characteristics and Organizational Behavior: The analysis assumes both player groups are very smart, strategy savvy, and not subject to emotional influences or related errors. 5. Independence: Each player group can accomplish their desired outcomes without the help of the other player group. 6. Symmetry: The game’s decisional matrix constructs HVO tuples or strategy sets that are not symmetrical. The payoffs for Player Two (PG2) do not represent a mirror image of Player One’s (PG1s) payoffs. 7. Finite Strategies: The strategies listed are considered finite in number. They have all been determined as significant from this study’s SLRs, narratives (scholars and analysts); and, in-country surveys as the most probable HVOs. 8. Finite Players: The game identifies a total of three player groups that are coded: PG1 or Pi , PG2 or Pj , and PG3 or Pk as adapted from Nash’s Non-cooperative Three Player Games (Nash, 1928, p. 286-297). 9. Player Group Three (PG3): This group’s strategy moves are included in game play consideration. However, after analysis, the group’s payoff values are too small to impose significance in the game’s outcome. 10. Other rules, limits, and assumptions: These are continued as outlined in the following paragraphs: I-Q I. Nash Equilibrium (NE) modifications, limits, assumptions, and Equilibrium Point (EP): 1. Nash’s Equilibrium (NE): No player has any incentive to change their strategy move in the absence another law. In short, the move must be completely logical under the circumstances and in accordance with the stated player’s characteristics (See H. 4.). 2. Inherent Stability: All strategies are assumed to be inherently stable given the following conditions: what one player does is optimal given what the other is doing is optimal as well; in short, neither player has any regrets regarding their strategy move. 3. Equilibrium Point (EP): An equilibrium point is defined when each player’s mixed-strategy maximizes his payoff given the strategies of the other player(s) are held firm and not changed. “Thus each player’s strategy is optimal against those of the others” (Nash, 1928, p. 287). J. Mixed-Strategy Nash Equilibrium (MSNE): 1. There must be at least one Nash Equilibrium for all finite games (See F. 5.). 2. Pure versus Mixed-Strategy: There are no equilibria within a pure strategy; however, this is not the case with a mixed-strategy. 3. Game Play: At least one equilibrium must exist in a mixed-strategy game. 4. Strategy Conditions: A mixed-strategy represents a probability distribution when it involves two or more pure strategies. 5. Game Play Example: An example of a mixed-strategy and implication analysis is represented by comparing the tuples {HVO3, HVO4: HVO3, HVO5}. In this comparison the player or observer is able to identify the significance of the EUPs associated with PG2s (China’s) moves as it potentially impacts PG1 (the Western Bloc’s) efforts to minimize PG2s (China’s) attempt to maximally achieve alliances to gain dominance in parallel with other moves China is making to maximize transformation to gain dominance. As indicated in the table both moves by PG2 (China) may appear to be a zero-sum game. That said, the end-state of the game is viewed by all players as inherently a non-zero sum game. There are four HVOs with ZSGs as defined in the game’s outcomes (See table). 6. Players may choose randomly among pure strategy options that are in equilibrium. An example of this condition is again represented in the tuples {HVO3, HVO4: HVO3, HVO5} which indicates each is the mutual best response (MBR) for both PG1 and PG2. 7. Mixed-Strategy Nash Equilibrium: This condition is met when each player’s strategy set(s) or move(s) represent the mutual best responses for each. K. Operation of Game Concept: 1. Inherent Stability: Assumes each group’s membership will align with and commit to supporting the group’s strategy decisions as each member will benefit better if their individual actions conform to their group. 2. Under these conditions, player group moves may not represent the best utility or profit outcomes for themselves or the other player group. For example, one player group may choose to move to proceed with an action or directional achievement that in turn would require the opposing player group to choose to discontinue or stop its action or directional achievements related to the same HVO so as not to cancel-out or block the move. Nash notes that under some conditions blocking moves need to operate logically even when the moves do not maximally benefit them. Absent this logic, the actions or moves of each player in the same direction to achieve a commonly desired outcome results in a disruptive collision or negative EUP for both. Such illogical moves make the game inherently unstable. The tuples {HVO3, HVO4: HVO3, HVO5} may be viewed as examples of inherent instability. L. Member Deviations Within Player Groups: 1. Individual member deviations within the two player groups have been considered. As such, each of the player group’s members are assumed to be stable and committed to their respective group’s pure and mixed-strategies. 207

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