Week-in-Review
Poon Panichpibool
The Petro Bomb and 28 Debts Later
•Slump in Oil price = Real pains for Banks too! How?
•What is going on with the Banks? (...
The Petro Bomb
• Low oil price turned energy loans into bad loans.
• ⅓ of Oil producers (~175 companies) are at high risk ...
The Petro Bomb - JPM Case
• If oil were to hold near $25 a barrel for 18 months, it would
need to boost reserves for impai...
The Petro Bomb - $123B Banks’ Energy Loans
The Petro Bomb - Lots of Junks!
The Petro Bomb - A nightmare from Fed St. Louis
The Petro Bomb - A nightmare from Fed St. Louis
•Oil prices will reach $0 per
barrel by mid 2019.
•Good news … It’s largel...
The Petro Bomb - What’s next?
The Petro Bomb - What’s next? The Rise of EVs
28 Debts Later - Many Banks reported bad Q
•Banks reported significant drops in profits, some even
reported losses.
• Resu...
28 Debts Later - Standard Chartered Case
• Standard Chartered makes first annual loss since 1989.
• Impairments rose 87 pe...
28 Debts Later - Standard Chartered Case
28 Debts Later - HSBC dividend cut?
28 Debts Later - Global Debt Contagion!
• Since the financial crisis, adding nearly $60 trillion in the
process of pushing...
28 Debts Later - Global Debt Contagion!
28 Debts Later - Global Debt Contagion!
28 Debts Later - Global Debt Contagion!
What do you think would be a good market
trade based on this information?
http://goo.gl/forms/vnNCoRmLsw
Additional Reading
• Ray Dalio's Economic Template
• Article: JPM rough Q
• Article: Stock and Oil correlation
• Article: ...
poon_wire
of 21

poon_wire

Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - poon_wire

  • 1. Week-in-Review Poon Panichpibool
  • 2. The Petro Bomb and 28 Debts Later •Slump in Oil price = Real pains for Banks too! How? •What is going on with the Banks? (Too much bad debts?) •Will we have another financial crisis? •The End of Debt Cycle?
  • 3. The Petro Bomb • Low oil price turned energy loans into bad loans. • ⅓ of Oil producers (~175 companies) are at high risk of bankruptcy - rising risk that bank loans will not be repaid. (Source: Deloitte) • Banks have to boost reserve for impaired energy loans. • Affect their bottom lines!
  • 4. The Petro Bomb - JPM Case • If oil were to hold near $25 a barrel for 18 months, it would need to boost reserves for impaired energy loans by $1.5 billion. (Is it possible for prolong historically low oil price?)
  • 5. The Petro Bomb - $123B Banks’ Energy Loans
  • 6. The Petro Bomb - Lots of Junks!
  • 7. The Petro Bomb - A nightmare from Fed St. Louis
  • 8. The Petro Bomb - A nightmare from Fed St. Louis •Oil prices will reach $0 per barrel by mid 2019. •Good news … It’s largely unrealistic.
  • 9. The Petro Bomb - What’s next?
  • 10. The Petro Bomb - What’s next? The Rise of EVs
  • 11. 28 Debts Later - Many Banks reported bad Q •Banks reported significant drops in profits, some even reported losses. • Result of loan losses provisions, losses tied to oil and gas loans, restructuring costs etc. • Might have to cut dividend? No Bonus? Lay off?
  • 12. 28 Debts Later - Standard Chartered Case • Standard Chartered makes first annual loss since 1989. • Impairments rose 87 percent to $4 billion from the year- earlier period.
  • 13. 28 Debts Later - Standard Chartered Case
  • 14. 28 Debts Later - HSBC dividend cut?
  • 15. 28 Debts Later - Global Debt Contagion! • Since the financial crisis, adding nearly $60 trillion in the process of pushing the worldwide debt load to $200 trillion, or nearly three times the size of the entire global economy. • Are we near the end of the Debt cycle? Is it time for deleveraging? • How contagious new defaults and financial meltdown will be? • This is why we are so worried about China (well, EM markets)
  • 16. 28 Debts Later - Global Debt Contagion!
  • 17. 28 Debts Later - Global Debt Contagion!
  • 18. 28 Debts Later - Global Debt Contagion!
  • 19. What do you think would be a good market trade based on this information? http://goo.gl/forms/vnNCoRmLsw
  • 20. Additional Reading • Ray Dalio's Economic Template • Article: JPM rough Q • Article: Stock and Oil correlation • Article: China's Credit Conundrum • Article: Global Debt Contagion? • Article: Kyle Bass is Wrong about China? • Kyle Bass' Letter • Economic Calendar

Related Documents