1
BY:
ABDUL QADEER ABBASI (IRS)
SPONSOR ADS:
MR. AHMED IQBAL SHAH
Thursday, 10th September, 2015
 NFC=National Finance Commission
 KP=Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
 M=Million
 FATA=Federally Administered Tribal Area
 CCI=Coun...
 PRIMARY SOURCES
Mr. Iqbal Ahmed Bablani
Provincial Census Commissioner
Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch
Joint Census Commissi...
 Currency of the Issue
 Introduction/ Historical
Background
 Analysis
 Issues for Policy Makers
 The Way Forward
 Re...
*http://mediamention.info/2013/12/
**http://www.thenewstribe.com/2015/04/30/pakistan-world-sixth-most-populous-country-wil...
 Bigger the Population,
Bigger the Share
NFC Award
Seat Share in
Parliament
Local Bodies Polls
Target Subsidies
Quot...
Bigger the Population,
Bigger the Share
Punjabi & Siraiki in
Punjab
Sindhi & Urdu
Speaking in Sindh
Baloch & Pashtun i...
YEAR POPULATTION (M)
1951* 33.740
1961 42.880
1972 65.309
1981 84.253
1998 132.352
2011** 192.288
2030*** 244.000
2050 300...
UNIT POPULA
TION
1998
CENSUS
(M)
%
PUNJAB 73.621 55.6
SINDH 30.439 23.0
KP 17.743 13.4
BALOCHISTA
N
6.565
5.0
FATA 3.176 2...
UNIT POPULA
TION
2011
DATA (M)
%
PUNJAB 91.379 47.5
SINDH 55.245 28.7
KP 26.896 14.0
BALOCHISTA
N 13.162 6.8
FATA 4.452 2....
12
http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/108/240191-federal-govt-decides-to-conduct-population-
census-in-march-2016.html
accesse...
 “No funds have been
released thus far”
Asif Bajwa,
Chief Statistician
 Government has lost
interest in its own
announce...
15
CENSUS
http://www.qsa.gov.qa/QatarCensus/Census_Def.aspx accessed on 05-09-2015 16
COUNTING
Demographic
Socio-
economic
Th...
First complete census on ten yearly basis was
taken in SWEDEN in 1749 AD*
In Indo-Pak the 1st Census was held between
18...
Census may either be “de facto” or
“de jure”
http://www.qsa.gov.qa/QatarCensus/Census_Def.aspx accessed on 05-09-2015
18
D...
Census are taken by :
1) Enumeration
2) Questionnaire
3) Combined of both methods
Enumeration Method is used in Pakis...
20
The Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, published by National Assembly of Pakistan
accessed on 05-09-2015 21
Ce...
22
CENSUS ORGANIZATION 1950
CENSUS & REGISTRATION
ORGANIZATION 1976
POPULATION CENSUS
ORGANIZATION 1978
FEDERAL BUREAU OF
...
23
24
 For complete coverage and effective field
supervision, the country has been delimited on a
four-tier system, into;
Ce...
25
26
 Updated digitized maps of Census areas for
each enumerator and supervisor
 CNIC of head or any member of household
m...
27
 Collection of filled-in questionnaires in
sealed envelopes
 Census Evaluation Survey by an
independent agency
 Admi...
28
Effective & Committed Provincial Census
Commissioners (PCC) for coordination
between Provincial Governments &
Populati...
29
*Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner, in
meeting on 04-09-2015
30
 Census operation requires a field for...
Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner (Incharge) Meeting on 04-09-2015
31
Photograph of Enumerator / Super...
32
33
 Law and order situation in certain parts of the
country
 Access of enumeration and supervisory staff in
troubled are...
34
RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATION
Freezing Representation of
seats in Parliament
(Indian Model)
The CCI, Parliament & Federal
...
RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATION
Census Organization should
be:
Headed by a permanent
professional population
scholar and re...
RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATION
The policy decisions at the
Federal, Provincial and Local
level should be taken on the
basis...
38
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POPULATION CENSUS 2016 IN PAKISTAN: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS

This is the presentation which I delivered on 10-09-2015 in National Institute of Management, Karachi for 20th Mid Career Management Course.
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Data & Analytics      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - POPULATION CENSUS 2016 IN PAKISTAN: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS

  • 1. 1
  • 2. BY: ABDUL QADEER ABBASI (IRS) SPONSOR ADS: MR. AHMED IQBAL SHAH Thursday, 10th September, 2015
  • 3.  NFC=National Finance Commission  KP=Khyber Pakhtunkhwa  M=Million  FATA=Federally Administered Tribal Area  CCI=Counsel of Common Interest  PM=Prime Minister  AD=Anno Domini  Indo-Pak=India-Pakistan  USA=United States of America  COs=Census Organizations  CNIC=Computerized National Identity Card  AC=Assistant Commissioner  SDPO=Sub-Divisional Police Officer  PCO=Population Census Organization  FBS=Federal Bureau of Statics  Cantt=Cantonment 3
  • 4.  PRIMARY SOURCES Mr. Iqbal Ahmed Bablani Provincial Census Commissioner Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch Joint Census Commissioner (Incharge) Meeting on 04-09-2015 in Regional Office of Federal Bureau of Statics, Karachi  SECONDARY SOURCES Newspapers Websites of FBS & different Government organizations Research papers available on internet Pictures of Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner, FBS, Karachi office and Abdul Qadeer Abbasi the participant of 20th MCMC, NIM,4
  • 5.  Currency of the Issue  Introduction/ Historical Background  Analysis  Issues for Policy Makers  The Way Forward  Recommendations  Implementation Measures 5
  • 6. *http://mediamention.info/2013/12/ **http://www.thenewstribe.com/2015/04/30/pakistan-world-sixth-most-populous-country-will- conduct-census-in-2016/ accessed on 27-08-2015 6 1998 Census was held after 17 years Opposition Leader demanded fresh Census for proper allocation of resources* Delay in census is causing anger in smaller provinces 2016 Census is to be held after 18 years**
  • 7.  Bigger the Population, Bigger the Share NFC Award Seat Share in Parliament Local Bodies Polls Target Subsidies Quota in jobs 7
  • 8. Bigger the Population, Bigger the Share Punjabi & Siraiki in Punjab Sindhi & Urdu Speaking in Sindh Baloch & Pashtun in Balochistan Pashtun & Non- Pashtun in KP 8
  • 9. YEAR POPULATTION (M) 1951* 33.740 1961 42.880 1972 65.309 1981 84.253 1998 132.352 2011** 192.288 2030*** 244.000 2050 300.000 2100 364.000 *http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-province-region-1951 **http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-13514-Population-shoots-up-by- 47-percent-since-1998 ***http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2015/07/31/national/pakist ans-population-to-exceed-300-million-by-2050-un-report/ Accessed on 27-08-2015 9
  • 10. UNIT POPULA TION 1998 CENSUS (M) % PUNJAB 73.621 55.6 SINDH 30.439 23.0 KP 17.743 13.4 BALOCHISTA N 6.565 5.0 FATA 3.176 2.4 ISLAMABAD 0.805 0.6 56% 23% 13% 5% 2%1% PUNJAB SINDH KP BALOCHISTAN FATA ISLAMABAD http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-province-region-1951 Accessed on 27-08-2015 10
  • 11. UNIT POPULA TION 2011 DATA (M) % PUNJAB 91.379 47.5 SINDH 55.245 28.7 KP 26.896 14.0 BALOCHISTA N 13.162 6.8 FATA 4.452 2.3 ISLAMABAD 1.151 0.6 47% 29% 14% 7% 2%1% PUNJAB SINDH KP BALOCHISTAN FATA ISLAMABAD http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-13514-Population-shoots-up-by-47-percent- since-1998 Accessed on 27-08-2015 1 1
  • 12. 12
  • 13. http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/108/240191-federal-govt-decides-to-conduct-population- census-in-march-2016.html accessed on 27-08-2015 13 PM approved in CCI meeting on 18th March, 2015 holding of Population Census in March- 2016 with assistance of Armed Forces Approval of Budget for Population and Housing Census at Rs.14.5 (Billion) to be shared by Provinces Completion of all activities including district wise data/results by December, 2015 Setting up a National Census Apex Committee Technical Committees on various subjects including experts
  • 14.  “No funds have been released thus far” Asif Bajwa, Chief Statistician  Government has lost interest in its own announcement made in March, 2015  Census waste of resources, NADRA data be used http://www.dawn.com/news/1204103 accessed on 02-09-2015 14
  • 15. 15
  • 16. CENSUS http://www.qsa.gov.qa/QatarCensus/Census_Def.aspx accessed on 05-09-2015 16 COUNTING Demographic Socio- economic The number of persons in any community can be determined by Counting Census is a Characteristic of population
  • 17. First complete census on ten yearly basis was taken in SWEDEN in 1749 AD* In Indo-Pak the 1st Census was held between 1867-1872, and was repeated in 1881** Thereafter, Census every 10th year *h ttp://www.stat.fi/tup/vl2010/art_2011-03-18_001_en.html accessed on 05-09-2015 **http://www.cicred.org/Eng/Publications/pdf/c-c38.pdf accessed on 05-09-2015 17
  • 18. Census may either be “de facto” or “de jure” http://www.qsa.gov.qa/QatarCensus/Census_Def.aspx accessed on 05-09-2015 18 DE FACTO DE JURE A person is counted at the place he or she is found at the time of counting A person is counted at the place of his/her normal residence
  • 19. Census are taken by : 1) Enumeration 2) Questionnaire 3) Combined of both methods Enumeration Method is used in Pakistan and USA Questionnaire Method is used in England 19
  • 20. 20
  • 21. The Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, published by National Assembly of Pakistan accessed on 05-09-2015 21 Census meets Legal requirements for: Providing basis for political representation in the National and Provincial Assemblies (Article 51 (5) of Constitution) Distribution of funds to the federating units by National Finance Commission (Article 160(2) of Constitution) Determining quota for recruitment to all civil posts in the Federal Government
  • 22. 22 CENSUS ORGANIZATION 1950 CENSUS & REGISTRATION ORGANIZATION 1976 POPULATION CENSUS ORGANIZATION 1978 FEDERAL BUREAU OF STATICS 2012
  • 23. 23
  • 24. 24  For complete coverage and effective field supervision, the country has been delimited on a four-tier system, into; Census Districts (Tehsils/ Towns and Cantts.) Census Charges (Qanun go/ part of Town/Cantt.) Census Circle (Patwar Circle/part of Town /Cantt.) Census Blocks (Village, part of Village/Town)  Census Block roughly comprises of 200-250 houses  One Block is assigned to one Enumerator
  • 25. 25
  • 26. 26  Updated digitized maps of Census areas for each enumerator and supervisor  CNIC of head or any member of household may be recorded for verification  Vigilance Teams comprising AC, SDPO & Technical Officer at Census District level  Control Rooms at Census District level to redress public complaints about enumeration
  • 27. 27  Collection of filled-in questionnaires in sealed envelopes  Census Evaluation Survey by an independent agency  Administrative Boundaries be frozen by Provincial Governments  Ban on transfers and postings of staff engaged in Census operation
  • 28. 28 Effective & Committed Provincial Census Commissioners (PCC) for coordination between Provincial Governments & Population Census Organization Publicity Campaign to create the awareness among masses through Print & Electronic Media
  • 29. 29
  • 30. *Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner, in meeting on 04-09-2015 30  Census operation requires a field force of 182,000* as Enumerators and Supervisors  Services of School Teachers and employees of Local Government Departments  Participation of maximum females in the Census operation  They may be paid one month salary as remuneration
  • 31. Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner (Incharge) Meeting on 04-09-2015 31 Photograph of Enumerator / Supervisor on serially numbered Identity Card Appointment of Census Field Staff be ensured well before the start of operation Training may be imparted by Senior Officers of FBS
  • 32. 32
  • 33. 33  Law and order situation in certain parts of the country  Access of enumeration and supervisory staff in troubled areas  Security of census documents in sensitive areas  Distortion of population figures due to linguistic and ethnic feelings in certain areas  Political linkage of census data in terms of representations in assemblies and distribution of financial resources among provinces has made census a sensitive issue
  • 34. 34
  • 35. RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATION Freezing Representation of seats in Parliament (Indian Model) The CCI, Parliament & Federal Government Apportionment of NFC Award on multi-factors i.e. population, need, backwardness, revenue generation and area basis The CCI, Parliament & Federal Government Permanent & Autonomous Census Organization The Federal Government 35
  • 36. RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATION Census Organization should be: Headed by a permanent professional population scholar and researcher having fixed tenure The Federal Government Data Evaluation Function should be built in the budget The Federal Government 36
  • 37. RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATION The policy decisions at the Federal, Provincial and Local level should be taken on the basis of data collected, compiled, tabulated resulting in logical inferences rather than on personal whims and petty political & ethnic interests The Federal Government, Provincial Governments & Local Governments 37
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