NASA
Strategy Project 2
22
33
44
1960s
NASA.
A focused sense
of where to play
and how to win.
55
Today’s
NASA.
An unclear purpose,
a lack of relevance,
a diluted portfolio.
66
What will be
NASA’s next
giant leap?
77
The essence
of strategy is
choosing what
not to do.
Michael Porter
8
`
What is our winning
aspiration?
Where do we play?
How do we win?
What capabilities and
management systems do we
requir...
9
`
Houston, we
have a problem
All systems
go
Space race
2.0
Failure to
launch
Geopolitical
Commercialspaceindustry
Unstab...
1010
`
Geopolitical
Commercialspaceindustry
Stable
All systems go
A successful commercial Space ecosystem and NASA
growth ...
1111
`
Houston, we have a problem
Geopolitical
Unstable
A climate crisis redirects NASA away from space
exploration.
• Ins...
1212
`
Geopolitical
Unstable
Commercialspaceindustry
Space race 2.0
A political crisis - the challenge of China -
directs ...
1313
`
GeopoliticalCommercialspaceindustry
Only SpaceX succeeds, but so well that NASA
leadership in space exploration is ...
14
`
Houston, we
have a problem
All systems
go
Space race
2.0
Failure to
launch
Geopolitical
Commercialspaceindustry
Unsta...
15
`
Short term Long term
Manage all
the things.
Do all the
things.
Do some
things.
Do one
thing.
Based on our exploration...
16
`
Do all the
things.
NASA’s current strategy, Do all the things; pursuing a
diverse portfolio of activities, making a b...
17
`
Do some
things.
Do some things; a short-term strategy which likely
pursues commercial space activity by participating...
18
`
Manage all
the things.
Manage all the things; a reverse vertical-integration
strategy which positions NASA as a facil...
19
`
Do one
thing.
Do one thing; a strategy to pursue a concentrated
portfolio of ambitious projects over the long-term.
S...
20
`
Financial Do all the
things.
Manage all
the things.
Do some
things.
Do one
thing.
Least
attractive
Most
attractive
Ri...
21
`
Financial Do some
things.
Least
attractive
Most
attractive
Risk Do some
things.
Strategic fit Do one
thing.
Cultural ...
22
`
Do some
things.
Do one
thing.
As a result, we see opportunity for NASA in the pursuit of
a dual strategy; playing tod...
23
`
2015 Future
Divest
Invest
A dual strategy will allow NASA to invest in a long-term,
focused strategy, while divesting...
24
`
To illustrate this shift in strategic focus and
resource allocation, we assessed NASA’s financials
using the ambition...
25
`
Today, NASA spends 67% of their budget on
low-ambition projects, and 33% on high-ambition projects.
WHERETOPLAY(MARKE...
26
`
Because NASA is public agency dedicated to research &
innovation, we believe they are uniquely positioned to
pursue m...
27
`
What is our winning
aspiration?
Where do we play?
How do we win?
What capabilities &
management systems
do we require...
28
`
These strategic choices will cause a shift in how
NASA functions and how they are perceived.
NASA’S FROM / TO
FROM (T...
2929
`
NASA is in the
business of
space exploration.
3030
`
NASA is in the
business of
space travel.
3131
`
NASA is in the
business of
climate change.
3232
`
NASA is in the
business of
health science.
3333
`
NASA is in the
business of
aeronautics.
3434
`
NASA is in the
business of
Earth science.
3535
`
NASA is in the
business of
aviation.
3636
`
NASA is in the
business of
big data.
3737
`
NASA is in the
business of
asteroids.
3838
`
NASA is in the
business of
manufacturing.
3939
`
NASA is in the
business of
cloud computing.
4040
`
NASA is in the
business of
infrastructure.
4141
`
NASA is in the
business of
research.
4242
`
NASA is in the
business of
weather tracking.
4343
`
NASA is in the
business of
satellite launches.
4444
`
NASA is in the
business of
education.
4545
`
NASA is in the
business of
hydrology.
4646
`
NASA is in the
business of
politics.
4747
`
NASA is in the
business of
aeropropulsion.
4848
`
NASA is in the
business of
robotics.
4949
`
NASA is in the
business of
hardware.
5050
`
NASA is in the
business of
transportation.
5151
`
NASA is in the
business of
safety.
5252
`
NASA is in the
business of
procurement.
5353
`
NASA is in the
business of
suborbital research.
5454
`
NASA is in the
business of
certification.
5555
`
NASA is in the
business of
giant leaps.
5656
`
NASA is in the
business of
giant leaps.
57
We ranked drivers of change in NASA’s contextual
environment based on degree of uncertainty and
potential impact.
DRIVE...
58
OVERVIEW OF POSSIBLE FUTURES 2020 - 2025
SCENARIOS OVERVIEW
“HOUSTON	WE	HAVE	A	PROBLEM”
“FAILURE	TO	LAUNCH”
“ALL	SYSTE...
59
SCENARIO H IGH LIGH TS
OVERVIEW	OF	POSSIBLE	FUTURES 2020	- 2025
“HOUSTON	WE	HAVE	A	PROBLEM”
• INSTABILITY	ISSUE:	CLIMA...
60
Scenarios
SCENARIO NARRATIVES
“ALL	SYSTEMS	GO” 2025
The	private	space	industry	has	grown	from	being	a	seed	funded	star...
61
Scenarios
SCENARIO NARRATIVES
“SPACE	RACE	2.0” 2025
Russia	has	just	removed it’s	components	from	the	ISS	to	form	th...
6262
“ALL	SYSTEMS	GO”
Private	space	exploration
ecosystem	works,	NASA
still	leading	the	way.
“HOUSTON	WE	HAVE	A
PROBL...
63
What type of strategy is our selected option – Do some
things and Do one thing - and why?
NASA has a world class combin...
64
We analyzed the implications of strategy Do one big thing within the
scenario Failure to launch.
WINDTUNNEL ANALYSIS
Fi...
65
We analyzed the implications of strategy Do some things within the
scenario Failure to launch.
WINDTUNNEL ANALYSIS
Fina...
66
Value map
Actions Outputs	/	Capabilities Business	Changes Benefits Transformational Goals Strategic	Objectives
Manage	...
67
O -
R	-
C	-
S	-
“ALL	SYSTEMS GO”
Private	space exploration	ecosystem
works,	NASA	still	leading the	way.
“HOUSTON...
68
Wind tunnel
APPENDIX 1
69
Four potential big things
FEASIBILITY
MOON BASE
ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE
GO TO MARS
IMPACT
DEVELOP ASTEROID
DIVERSION CAP...
of 69

NASA Future Strategy as told by SFI @ OCAD

A deep dive into the future of NASA, where they won, where they've failed and where they need to go to help save the world! Team Kevin Morris, Tom Kasanda, Amy Stevens and Marta Scythes
Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: Science      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - NASA Future Strategy as told by SFI @ OCAD

  • 1. NASA Strategy Project 2
  • 2. 22
  • 3. 33
  • 4. 44 1960s NASA. A focused sense of where to play and how to win.
  • 5. 55 Today’s NASA. An unclear purpose, a lack of relevance, a diluted portfolio.
  • 6. 66 What will be NASA’s next giant leap?
  • 7. 77 The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do. Michael Porter
  • 8. 8 ` What is our winning aspiration? Where do we play? How do we win? What capabilities and management systems do we require? NASA has – by default – assumed a strategy which fails to answer critical strategy questions. STRATEGIC CH OICE CASCADE
  • 9. 9 ` Houston, we have a problem All systems go Space race 2.0 Failure to launch Geopolitical Commercialspaceindustry Unstable Stable Unviable Viable We explored scenarios which considered uncertainties in geopolitical stability and commercial space viability over the next 10 years. SCENARIOS
  • 10. 1010 ` Geopolitical Commercialspaceindustry Stable All systems go A successful commercial Space ecosystem and NASA growth are expanding the frontiers of space. • Commercial ventures succeed and are financiallysustainable • NASA is rewarded with continued funding to manage and grow space ecosystem, progress towards big mission Emerge, grow and flourish
  • 11. 1111 ` Houston, we have a problem Geopolitical Unstable A climate crisis redirects NASA away from space exploration. • Instability issue: climate change • In face of escalatingdebt crisis & successful private space endeavors, gov’t might cut NASA $, Privatize elements • Shift to climate science instead of deep space exploration Commercialspaceindustry Emerge, grow and flourish
  • 12. 1212 ` Geopolitical Unstable Commercialspaceindustry Space race 2.0 A political crisis - the challenge of China - directs NASA to achieve a grand challenge in light of a failed commercial space industry. • instability issue: political conflict • Government looks to NASA for crisis leadership in winning new Space Race, funding increase Fail and Collapse
  • 13. 1313 ` GeopoliticalCommercialspaceindustry Only SpaceX succeeds, but so well that NASA leadership in space exploration is threatened. • Most commercial space venturesfail to be profitable • SpaceX becomes private sector beacon for success • Governmentmay maintain NASA funding, but big NASA led missions are postponed indefinitelyas they look to SpaceX for leadership Stable Failure to launch Fail and Collapse
  • 14. 14 ` Houston, we have a problem All systems go Space race 2.0 Failure to launch Geopolitical Commercialspaceindustry Unstable Stable Unviable Viable We explored scenarios which considered uncertainties in geopolitical stability and commercial space viability over the next 10 years. SCENARIOS
  • 15. 15 ` Short term Long term Manage all the things. Do all the things. Do some things. Do one thing. Based on our exploration of future scenarios, we generated 4 strategic options for NASA. STRATEGIC OPTIONS
  • 16. 16 ` Do all the things. NASA’s current strategy, Do all the things; pursuing a diverse portfolio of activities, making a broad case for low, steady funding. STRATEGIC OPTION 1
  • 17. 17 ` Do some things. Do some things; a short-term strategy which likely pursues commercial space activity by participating in current private sector growth. STRATEGIC OPTION 2
  • 18. 18 ` Manage all the things. Manage all the things; a reverse vertical-integration strategy which positions NASA as a facilitator within a growing ecosystem of public and private players. STRATEGIC OPTION 3
  • 19. 19 ` Do one thing. Do one thing; a strategy to pursue a concentrated portfolio of ambitious projects over the long-term. STRATEGIC OPTION 4
  • 20. 20 ` Financial Do all the things. Manage all the things. Do some things. Do one thing. Least attractive Most attractive Risk Do all the things. Manage all the things. Do some things. Do one thing. Strategic fit Do one thing. Manage all the things. Do all the things. Do some things. Cultural Do all the things. Do some things. Do one thing. Manage all the things. Windtunneling gave us the context we needed to rank options against financial, risk, cultural, and strategic fit. RANKING OPTIONS
  • 21. 21 ` Financial Do some things. Least attractive Most attractive Risk Do some things. Strategic fit Do one thing. Cultural Do one thing. Ranking allowed us to visualize the relative attractiveness of options against our criteria. VISUALIZING STRATEGY Do one thing.
  • 22. 22 ` Do some things. Do one thing. As a result, we see opportunity for NASA in the pursuit of a dual strategy; playing today while building for tomorrow STRATEGIC OPTIONS
  • 23. 23 ` 2015 Future Divest Invest A dual strategy will allow NASA to invest in a long-term, focused strategy, while divesting of non-portfolio activities – all while building supporting capabilities. A PH ASED, DUAL STRATEGY Do some things. Do one thing. %ofbudget Divesting by repeatedly transferring assets to the private sector and other agencies builds collaborative innovation capabilities which further contribute to their long- term strategy of Do one thing.
  • 24. 24 ` To illustrate this shift in strategic focus and resource allocation, we assessed NASA’s financials using the ambition matrix. WHERETOPLAY(MARKETS&CUSTOMERS) ADJACENTEXISTING NEW HOW TO WIN (PRODUCTS & ASSETS) ADJACENT Expanding from existing business into “new to the company” business CORE Optimizing existing products for existing customers A SH IFT IN RESOURCE ALLOCATION TRANSFORMATIONAL Developing breakthroughs and inventing things for markets that don’t yet exist Ambition matrix via Doblin Group / Harvard Business Review (2012) *Number are estimates based on NASA 2015budget. Calculations include project spending only using a judgment of core vs. higher-ambition. Numbers exclude non-project costs such as operating costs. EXISTING INCREMENTAL NEW
  • 25. 25 ` Today, NASA spends 67% of their budget on low-ambition projects, and 33% on high-ambition projects. WHERETOPLAY(MARKETS&CUSTOMERS) ADJACENTEXISTING NEW EXISTING INCREMENTAL NEW HOW TO WIN (PRODUCTS & ASSETS) A SH IFT IN RESOURCE ALLOCATION $4.6B 33% $9.2B 67% Do some things. Do one thing. Ambition matrix via Doblin Group / Harvard Business Review (2012) *Number are estimates based on NASA 2015budget. Calculations include project spending only using a judgment of core vs. higher-ambition. Numbers exclude non-project costs such as operating costs.
  • 26. 26 ` Because NASA is public agency dedicated to research & innovation, we believe they are uniquely positioned to pursue more long-term, higher-ambition projects. A SH IFT IN RESOURCE ALLOCATION Do some things. Do one thing. $10B 70% $4.6B 30% WHERETOPLAY(MARKETS&CUSTOMERS) ADJACENTEXISTING NEW EXISTING INCREMENTAL NEW HOW TO WIN (PRODUCTS & ASSETS) Ambition matrix via Doblin Group / Harvard Business Review (2012) *Number are estimates based on NASA 2015budget. Calculations include project spending only using a judgment of core vs. higher-ambition. Numbers exclude non-project costs such as operating costs.
  • 27. 27 ` What is our winning aspiration? Where do we play? How do we win? What capabilities & management systems do we require? Solving problems that are unable to be solved elsewhere in the world and are critical to sustaining and improving the quality of life on earth NASA will play in the pioneering space; tackling complex problems first, which advance the agenda of the US and its citizens Leveraging and extending a unique, flexible combination of intellectual, physical, social, and financial capital to pursue higher ambition projects Operational effectiveness, relationships and innovation through partnerships, platforms, and collaboration Pursuing a long-term strategy will require NASA to make an integrated set of choices. STRATEGIC CH OICE CASCADE
  • 28. 28 ` These strategic choices will cause a shift in how NASA functions and how they are perceived. NASA’S FROM / TO FROM (Today) TO (Tomorrow) Passive administration, accepting direction Active leadership, driving direction Avoiding risk Embracing challenge Doing all the things Doing the things that matter most Accepting direction Setting direction Building cases to maintain funding Building vision and aspiration to grow funding Cost-center Value driver In the business of space In the business of pioneering to solve the unsolvable
  • 29. 2929 ` NASA is in the business of space exploration.
  • 30. 3030 ` NASA is in the business of space travel.
  • 31. 3131 ` NASA is in the business of climate change.
  • 32. 3232 ` NASA is in the business of health science.
  • 33. 3333 ` NASA is in the business of aeronautics.
  • 34. 3434 ` NASA is in the business of Earth science.
  • 35. 3535 ` NASA is in the business of aviation.
  • 36. 3636 ` NASA is in the business of big data.
  • 37. 3737 ` NASA is in the business of asteroids.
  • 38. 3838 ` NASA is in the business of manufacturing.
  • 39. 3939 ` NASA is in the business of cloud computing.
  • 40. 4040 ` NASA is in the business of infrastructure.
  • 41. 4141 ` NASA is in the business of research.
  • 42. 4242 ` NASA is in the business of weather tracking.
  • 43. 4343 ` NASA is in the business of satellite launches.
  • 44. 4444 ` NASA is in the business of education.
  • 45. 4545 ` NASA is in the business of hydrology.
  • 46. 4646 ` NASA is in the business of politics.
  • 47. 4747 ` NASA is in the business of aeropropulsion.
  • 48. 4848 ` NASA is in the business of robotics.
  • 49. 4949 ` NASA is in the business of hardware.
  • 50. 5050 ` NASA is in the business of transportation.
  • 51. 5151 ` NASA is in the business of safety.
  • 52. 5252 ` NASA is in the business of procurement.
  • 53. 5353 ` NASA is in the business of suborbital research.
  • 54. 5454 ` NASA is in the business of certification.
  • 55. 5555 ` NASA is in the business of giant leaps.
  • 56. 5656 ` NASA is in the business of giant leaps.
  • 57. 57 We ranked drivers of change in NASA’s contextual environment based on degree of uncertainty and potential impact. DRIVERS RANKING UNCERTAINTY Advancement of Science Funding Changes Commercial Space Regulation Generational Attitudes Change of Government Climate Change Urgency Earth in Duress International Space Competition Thinning Middle Class Saturated Media Market Major Funding Cuts Re-allocation/Prioritizing of Funding Reduced Public Support Robots Private Space Industry Success Geopolitical Stability • Threat of China & Russia • Changing Political Agendas/Support • Economic Volatility • Possibility of War • Big asteroid War National Debt Private Sector Increased Competition Other Space Programs Greater Achievements Deregulation Labour Market Global Food Shortages Internet is the New Wow Public Desire Declining Public Support/Relevance Increased Competition Among Government Departments Economies of Scale around Hardware Epidemics IMPACT Drivers which ranked high in uncertainty and impact were considered as axes for our scenarios 2x2.
  • 58. 58 OVERVIEW OF POSSIBLE FUTURES 2020 - 2025 SCENARIOS OVERVIEW “HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM” “FAILURE TO LAUNCH” “ALL SYSTEMS GO” Emerge, grow and flourish Fail and collapse StabilityGeo-Political / Economic “SPACE RACE 2.0” NASA Funding NASA Funding NASA Funding NASA Funding In-Stability Commercial Space Industries Successful Space Ecosystem and NASA growth expanding the frontiers of space Twist: Only SpaceX succeeds, but so well that NASA leadership in space exploration is threatened Political Crisis (the challenge of China) directs NASA to achieve grand challenge in context of failed commercial space industry Climate Crisis redirects NASA away from Space Exploration
  • 59. 59 SCENARIO H IGH LIGH TS OVERVIEW OF POSSIBLE FUTURES 2020 - 2025 “HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM” • INSTABILITY ISSUE: CLIMATE CHANGE • Commercial ventures succeed and are $ sustainable. • Possible climate change related conflicts • Impending tipping point & urgency towards climate science, critical to saving planet • Private investment may or may not stall over uncertainty • Shift to climate science instead of deep space exploration • In face of escalating debt crisis & successful private space endeavours, gov’t might cut NASA $, Privatize elements “FAILURE TO LAUNCH” • Most commercial space ventures fail to be profitable • Private Investment focused on only a few • Possible disasters bring into question private standards • NASA left with only one (SpaceX) secure launch vehicle capability • Global Ecosystem fragile but hasn’t collapsed • Twist: SpaceX becomes private sector beacon for success • Gov’t may maintain NASA funding, but big NASA led missions postponed indefinitely as they look to SpaceX for leadership “ALL SYSTEMS GO” • Commercial ventures succeed and are $ sustainable. • Private investment increases, Gov’t regulation decreases further • Private value add & innovation is higher than public sector (NASA) can deliver • American space ecosystem supports technological /economic agenda, US continues leading capabilities • Sci & Tech valued, Public support for Space & NASA continues • Growth of talent, Investment in STEAM • NASA strategy rewarded with continued funding to manage and grow space ecosystem, progress towards big mission Commercial Space Industries emerge, grow and flourish Commercial Space Industries fail and collapse Geo-Political / Economic StabilityGeo-Political / Economic In-Stability “SPACE RACE 2.0” • INSTABILITY ISSUE: POLITICAL CONFLICT • China’s advancing program viewed as threat • Emphasis towards military space interests • Commercial space ventures fail to be profitable • Private Investment goes down • Possible disasters bring into question private standards • NASA left without secure launch vehicle capability • Gov’t looks to NASA for crisis leadership in winning new Space Race, funding increase Funding Funding Funding Funding
  • 60. 60 Scenarios SCENARIO NARRATIVES “ALL SYSTEMS GO” 2025 The private space industry has grown from being a seed funded start up to an economic and scientific innovation engine. Space has become a new playground for the world’s billionaires to invest, build companies and boasting rights for great achievements. The elite are signing up for Low Earth Orbit space tourism and indirectly funding advancement in space and material science technology. American companies like SpaceX, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Blue Origin keep America at the forefront of technology. Bigelow is running a private tourist space station. In 2024, NASA robotically redirected a small asteroid into orbit around the moon and are now preparing a mission to gather samples and bring them back to earth. Understanding asteroid composition before it hits our atmosphere may be critical one day in saving the planet. Big projects like this still require massive government funding, but are more cost effective because of the private sector advancement of space technologies. NASA’s funding has remained constant, but by refining its role, structure and culture it is able to continue to be involved broadly across the entire space exploration landscape. It’s unspoken mission: “Saving the Earth from Space.” The findings from the asteroid capture are also the first step towards expanding our reach into space. Can we extract fuels and building materials? If these components are viable the next generation of technologies may get the green light and allow space colonization a one-day reality. Space is cool again. The creative and intellectual talent has been nurtured within STEAM and the best are anxious to be part of the Space Generation. The availability of NASA’s Earth Science Data has not only spawned a new understanding of Earth's climate but is being used to improve stewardship of the planet and generate economic growth. • Commercial ventures succeed and are $ sustainable. • Private investment increases, Gov’t regulation decreases further • Private value add & innovation is higher than public sector (NASA) can deliver • American space ecosystem supports technological /economic agenda, US continues leading capabilities • Sci & Tech valued, Public support for Space & NASA continues • Growth of talent, Investment in STEAM • NASA strategy rewarded with continued funding to manage and grow space ecosystem, progress towards big mission “HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM” 2025 China just completing an expansion to it’s own space station and it will now be the largest structure ever built in space. Although the success of the American private space ecosystem and the NASA sponsored Space Launch System have enabled the extension of the ISS operation, there are constant concerns about potential problems due to age and fatigue. Debate continues on whether to decommission the ISS and invest in a new station based on the private Bigelow station model. America can’t not have access to a space station, but the constant looming economic crash due to it’s public debt (largely to China) combined with dysfunctional partisan politics is causing decision making paralysis for NASA. Sea levels have continued to rise as projected giving credit to and global concern for where the projections are heading. Conflict between ethnic groups in low-lying regions is escalating as annual flooding worsens. Refugee migration is on the rise causing cascading cultural conflict and a growing sense of instability that is impacting on market driven economies. NASA has been facing incremental reductions in it’s budget as the defense budget has been increasing in response to fears of China’s ambition and demonstrated technological prowess. Some suspect the US Space Command has its own clandestine advanced robotics drone systems in space. As a result of the gradual budget trend, NASA has postponed any big project goals, privatized several labs and is focusing on Earth Sciences and Aerospace housekeeping. It is one thing to provide the data that confirms global warming, it is a much bigger task to solve a problem rooted in human behavior and economic systems driven by consuming and corporate greed. • INSTABILITY ISSUE: CLIMATE CHANGE • Commercial ventures succeed and are $ sustainable. • Possible climate change related conflicts • Impending tipping point & urgency towards climate science, critical to saving planet • Private investment may or may not stall over uncertainty • Shift to climate science instead of deep space exploration • In face of escalating debt crisis & successful private space endeavors, gov’t might cut NASA $, Privatize elements Commercial Space Industries emerge, grow and flourish Geo-Political / Economic StabilityGeo-Political / Economic In-Stability
  • 61. 61 Scenarios SCENARIO NARRATIVES “SPACE RACE 2.0” 2025 Russia has just removed it’s components from the ISS to form the core of its own OPSEK space station. With the continuing success of China’s independent station, it recently announce its intent to operate a space station on the moon within 10 years. Given China’s fluctuating economic instability, the west sees this as a politically driven distraction, but also a threat to America’s leadership pitting the ideology of democracy and free market against totalitarian rule. This also flies in the face of the recent failure of Mars One, the one-way trip mission to colonize Mars. This endeavour recently went bankrupt as funding dried up with the exposure of the gap between the dream and reality of accomplishing this feat. Contributing to the scrutiny of Mars One have been a string of other private failures. A Blue Origin rocket exploded on the launch pad although the crew capsule ejected safely. Although Virgin Galactic has been running space tourist successfully for 5 years, recently, 8 people died on re- entry due to a missed fatigue failure in the SpaceShipTwo right wing. Company shares tanked in expectation of civil suits. And, 10 people died when the Bigelow Space Station exploded. The cause is under investigation. Bigelow, which has never made a profit and reliant on NASA funding is expected to fold. Public watchdogs are calling for a moratorium on private space flight until they can prove their safety standards are sufficient. NASA finds itself in a complicated position. Over the past 10 years, NASA has downscaled its internal capabilities and lost key talent to the private sector. Unfortunately, the private space ecosystem they conceived as a response to their funding levels and efficiency issues is collapsing at a time when American leadership in space is if not lost, being challenged. It may be the time to go back to their roots, and propose a grand plan to boost America’s spirits and reinvigorate the sputtering economy, but many question if they are still the organization to do so. • INSTABILITY ISSUE: POLITICAL CONFLICT • China’s advancing program viewed as threat • Emphasis towards military space interests • Commercial space ventures fail to be profitable • Private Investment goes down • Possible disasters bring into question private standards • NASA left without secure launch vehicle capability • Gov’t looks to NASA for crisis leadership in winning new Space Race, funding increase “FAILURE TO LAUNCH” 2025 Space tourism is on hold after a series of rocket failures that sent major Low Earth Orbit players out of business. Most remaining commercial space companies are kept alive solely by government R&D contracts and these are coming under scrutiny by watchdogs and congress. The exception is SpaceX. By lowering payload cost through innovative rocket engineering, SpaceX grew to capture 80% of the satellite launch business and continued to invest profits in R&D. Other national launch companies like Arianespace SA now only exist through subsidies from their host nations. Under Elon Musk’s leadership, SpaceX has become the global leader in space exploration, setting its own agenda for where it wants to go…Mars. SpaceX’s efficiency and innovation has surpassed that of NASA and has become the defacto US space program. Questions still remain about SpaceX safety and rigor amid rumours of cost cutting practices, but despite this, the company has become America’s golden child representing the power of capitalism and democratized/open innovation. The best space science talent compete to be part of the SpaceX team. This has to sting NASA a bit as they invested heavily in STEAM and community engagement to inspire young scientist, but now can’t retain them. The commercial space ecosystem that NASA put in play has collapsed with only one winner that now NASA both relies on to keep the ISS operational, but is also threatened by as congress questions NASA’s relevance and role. • Most commercial space ventures fail to be profitable • Private Investment focused on only a few • Possible disasters bring into question private standards • NASA left with only one (SpaceX) secure launch vehicle capability • Global Ecosystem fragile but hasn’t collapsed • Twist: SpaceX becomes private sector beacon for success • Gov’t may maintain NASA funding, but big NASA led missions postponed indefinitely as they look to SpaceX for leadership Commercial Space Industries fail and collapse Geo-Political / Economic StabilityGeo-Political / Economic In-Stability
  • 62. 6262 “ALL SYSTEMS GO” Private space exploration ecosystem works, NASA still leading the way. “HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM” Ecosystem works, but NASA role somewhat lessened, refocus on climate. “SPACE RACE 2.0” Ecosystem fails, NASA called on to respond to Chinese geopolitical threat to US leadership in space. “FAILURE TO LAUNCH” Ecosystem fails, NASA surpassed by SpaceX Do All Things (Robust) - expensive - diluted focus - maintain capabilities Manage All Things (Multiple Strategy) - slightly less expensive - divest of many internal capabilities Do Some Things (Flexible Strategy) - careful divestment - focus on a few important things Do One Big Thing (Gamble Strategy) - set one goal - divest of many responsibilities Scenarios Strategies We assessed NASA’s business idea and strategic options against the four scenarios. WINDTUNNEL ASSESSMENT ? ?
  • 63. 63 What type of strategy is our selected option – Do some things and Do one thing - and why? NASA has a world class combination of interdisciplinary skill sets, the ability to scale, the capacity to take on financial risk without immediate stakeholder expectations and the technological knowledge unrivaled across space and aeronautical administrations. NASA also holds value in two complimentary places amongst the American people; in their hearts and minds. Factoring in their unique position as an administration, the current contextual environment and their ability to win over the public like no other administration ever has, the time is now to reconnect the hearts and minds in a singular aspirational goal that will both move the hearts of the public into the stratosphere along with the technological advancement of the United States, bringing new jobs, new business and news ways of thinking to the forefront. We see this being achieved by moving to the Do one thing strategy with focus and aspirations reminiscent of the Moon Walk, with a firm focus on the future. A move this substantial won't happen overnight. They need to transition at a pace that takes into account the contextual environment along with the motivations of congress, other administrations and the American Public. To support this goal, we recommend a short to long term strategy from doing all things to doing some things, with the ultimate goal of doing one thing as a true pioneer. We regard this strategy as a hybrid, transitional strategy of gamble and multiple. This approach takes into consideration the time, education and buy in required from multiple stakeholders, procurement relationships, existing projects in motion, consumer communications strategy planning, refinement of internal capacity needed to get to the Do one thing model and the associated back end work that needs to happen in preparation for making the goal public with the American people. STRATEGY TYPE
  • 64. 64 We analyzed the implications of strategy Do one big thing within the scenario Failure to launch. WINDTUNNEL ANALYSIS Finance Risk Culture Strategic • Infrastructure and assets may be available for less than market value • Increased stimulus funding may benefit the pursuit of grand challenges for job creation and technology development Advantages and benefits Disadvantages and implications • By pursuing a big thing, and staying out of commercial space sector, NASA limits exposure to investments in a failing industry • NASA’s spirit of pioneering and pursuing big, grand challenges is put to use as both a technical feat and boost to a struggling economy • Similar to NASA’s moon shot, NASA returns to a clear purpose driven by a contextual environment with characteristics much like the late 1960s • NASA loses critical partners in the space ecosystem, therefore needing to invest in the acquisition of or build their own assets for parts of the value chain they are dependent on • Decreased funding may impact grand challenges • Despite the failure happening in the private sector, it will ultimately impact the perception and identity of NASA. In this way, they are not completely removed from risk in this scenario • NASA will, for the first time in many years, have pressure on it as a driver of economic activity and hope • NASA letting the commercial space sector fail (by default via not participating) conflicts with their identity of driving US economic growth
  • 65. 65 We analyzed the implications of strategy Do some things within the scenario Failure to launch. WINDTUNNEL ANALYSIS Finance Risk Culture Strategic • The collapse of the commercial space sector may lead to stimulus funding which favours NASA as a way to bail private companies out Advantages and benefits Disadvantages and implications • If commercial space fails, NASA could receive a mandate to continue those activities, which would benefit their Do some things strategy • Feasible, low-risk activities fits within NASA’s current culture • NASA inadvertently proves its worth as a unique organization which can deliver the space needs of the US, unlike the private sector • NASA is over-indexed in the commercial space bubble, which may not provide returns given economic conditions • NASA is completely exposed to failure of a market • Those attracted to NASA for reasons of pioneering and new frontiers may no longer be as engaged in working for the organization • Overall, the strategy is not aligned to their core purpose and aspiration. Failure in this scenario could be fatal for NASA as they become extremely irrelevant and unviable
  • 66. 66 Value map Actions Outputs / Capabilities Business Changes Benefits Transformational Goals Strategic Objectives Manage / Build US Innovation Strategy Save planet Restructure & reorient Lightweight Compact Energy Storage "The NASA Effect" Build multiple private sector ecosystems for each NASA area of focus Earth & Climate science focus Capability to redirect asteroid Protect humanity (from Space) Increase solar energy capture by order of magnitude Replace hydrocarbon energy with renewable Become a Spacefaring peopleIncrease inter-govt support to other departments tech and innovation goals Go to Mars Value Mapping Exercise - this was an attempt to use value mapping to provide additional sensemaking and insights into factors that would influence NASA strategy Redefine Core Mission Extend the value of NASA procurement and innovation culture Build new inter- governental partnerships recognition for building US economy recognition for building US economy Develop co- relationship with Government (the purple zone) in stewardship of technology and stimulus to economy
  • 67. 67 O - R - C - S - “ALL SYSTEMS GO” Private space exploration ecosystem works, NASA still leading the way. “HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM” Ecosystem works, but NASA role somewhat lessened, refocus on climate. “SPACE RACE 2.0” Ecosystem fails, NASA called on to respond to Chinese geopolitical threat to US leadership in space. “FAILURE TO LAUNCH” Ecosystem fails, NASA surpassed by SpaceX Do All Things (Multiple Strategy) Manage All Things (Multiple Strategy) Do Some Things (Flexible Strategy) Do One Big Thing (Gamble Strategy) Scenarios Strategies O = Achieve Objectives R = Risk performance C = Cultural fit S = Strategic fit O - R - C - S - O - R - C - S - O - with internal expertise can refocus on Climate change R - C - S - O - R - C - S - O - R - C - S - O - √ capabilites available R - X uncertain control C - S - O - Can’t explore space R - may not be prepared, loss of internal capabilites C - S - O - R - C - S - O - R - C - S - O - R - C - S - O - Can’t explore space R - may not be prepared, loss of internal capabilites C - S - O - R - C - S - O - R - C - S - O - R - C - S - O - Can’t explore space R - may not be prepared, loss of internal capabilites C - S - Objectives Fit: Survival, Growth, & Allows delivery of strategic objectives as per 2014 Strat Plan within available funding Risk Fit: Lowers Risk of direct embarrassment as a result of failures (like Challenger.) Lower risk of a single source of Space Launch System. Cultural Fit: NASA is both a large,complex self sustaining bureaucracy and a national icon that represents and aspires to scientific advancement and achievement Strategic Fit: Aligns with Strategic Goals: Expand the frontiers of knowledge, capability, and opportunity in space . Advance understanding of Earth and develop technologies to improve the quality of life on our home planet . Serve the American public and accomplish our Mission by effectively managing our people, technical capabilities, and infrastructure . ? ? ? ? ?
  • 68. 68 Wind tunnel APPENDIX 1
  • 69. 69 Four potential big things FEASIBILITY MOON BASE ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE GO TO MARS IMPACT DEVELOP ASTEROID DIVERSION CAPABILITES

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