National Rural Transportation
Conference
Kathy Ruffalo
December 5, 2014
Topics
• Election results
• Lame duck session
• Key dates in 2015
• Authorization efforts
• Funding and financing upd...
Know your audience……….
• Or at least know what people think of your
audience………..
Opinion of Congress*
Favorable - 13%
Unfavorable – 83%
*Gallup – March 2013
Congress MORE popular than*
- Fidel Castro
- North Korea
- Meth labs
- The Kardashians/Lindsey Lohan
- Lobbyists
*Pu...
Things MORE popular than Congress*
- Lice
- Used car salesman
- Root canals
- Carnies
- Cockroaches
- Colonoscopies ...
Election results
Most expensive election in US history
• Estimated that $4 billion was spent
• NC Senate race was $100 million
• Low vot...
Republicans Win Record Majority in House
Analysis
Control of the 113th House (2012-2014)
188 244
199 233
• Republican...
Demographic Profiles of the 113th and 114th Congresses
113th Congress 114th Congress
House Senate House Senate
D R All ...
Republicans Win Solid Majority in Senate
OH
WV VA
Control of the 114th Senate (2015-2017)
MI
OK
MT ND
WY
CO
MO
S...
Senate changes
Current Senate
- 55 Democrats*
- 45 Republicans
* Includes 2 Independents
New Senate*
- 53 Republican...
New Senators
Alaska – Dan Sullivan
Arkansas – Tom Cotton
Colorado – Corey Gardner
Iowa – Joni Ernst
Georgia – David P...
Control of Senate May Seesaw Back to
Control of Senate
After 2014 Elections
Democrats in 2016
Projected Control of the...
Lame Duck
Only Urgent Issues Likely to be Addressed in
Lame Duck Session
Potential Lame Duck Session Legislative Productivity (113...
Once Republicans Control the Senate, Expect More Bills
(and More Vetoes)
Potential Post-Election Legislative Productivit...
Lame Duck Session
• Leadership priorities:
– NSA surveillance (failed)
– Terrorism Risk Insurance Act
– Defense Author...
Key dates for 2015
• February – President’s budget released
• March/April – Budget resolutions and budget
reconciliatio...
Authorization Status
• “New” Senate Chairman of EPW Committee
• “New” Ranking Member of T&I
• Key policy issues
– Loca...
Funding
• May 31st is key date – but understand it could
be sooner (or later)
• Will authorization bill be constrained ...
Transportation’s fiscal cliff
Just five months ago……..
• Congress extended MAP-21 policies through
May 31, 2015
• Congress also transferred $10.8 bil...
Two problems
• What happens after May 31st next year?
• “Longer” term shortfall
Fuel Taxes Power Fund
Analysis
• 90% of the Highway Trust Fund’s revenue comes from fuel taxes (imposed at the federal l...
History
• Since 2000, Congress has spent more from the
Highway Trust Fund than revenue collected
• Congress has transfe...
HTF outlook
• In order to keep current funding levels, need
revenue from “somewhere”……….
• Current funding gap – roughl...
Funding vs. Financing
Funding
• Collection of taxes, fees,
and other charges and the
allocation of these
revenues for...
Choices
• Reduce spending
• Go to the General Fund – again
• Raise current taxes or fees
• Create new funding mechanis...
Examples of financing methods
– National Infrastructure Bank or Fund
– TIFIA Expansion
– Private Activity Bonds
– Tax ...
States taking the lead
• Sales taxes
• Indexing transit fares
and fuel taxes
• Moving taxation to
wholesale level
• ...
Patience and Wisdom
Kathy Ruffalo
kathy@kruffalo.com
202-997-4136
Federal Landscape: Transportation Funding
Federal Landscape: Transportation Funding
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Federal Landscape: Transportation Funding

Presentation by Kathy Ruffalo, Ruffalo & Associates, at the 2014 National Rural Transportation Conference. Ruffallo discussed outlook for funding of the federal surface transportation program and state innovations in funding and financing.
Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: Government & Nonprofit      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Federal Landscape: Transportation Funding

  • 1. National Rural Transportation Conference Kathy Ruffalo December 5, 2014
  • 2. Topics • Election results • Lame duck session • Key dates in 2015 • Authorization efforts • Funding and financing update
  • 3. Know your audience………. • Or at least know what people think of your audience………..
  • 4. Opinion of Congress* Favorable - 13% Unfavorable – 83% *Gallup – March 2013
  • 5. Congress MORE popular than* - Fidel Castro - North Korea - Meth labs - The Kardashians/Lindsey Lohan - Lobbyists *Public Policy Polling
  • 6. Things MORE popular than Congress* - Lice - Used car salesman - Root canals - Carnies - Cockroaches - Colonoscopies - NFL replacement refs *Public Policy Polling
  • 7. Election results
  • 8. Most expensive election in US history • Estimated that $4 billion was spent • NC Senate race was $100 million • Low voter turnout nationwide – 36.6% • What will this mean for 2016?
  • 9. Republicans Win Record Majority in House Analysis Control of the 113th House (2012-2014) 188 244 199 233 • Republicans won a total of at least 244 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928 • An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing legislation in the House without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; New York Times. Democratic Republican Vacant Undecided* Control of the 114th House (2014-2016) AK Total Seats Democrats: 188 Republicans: 244 Undecided: 3 * Races not called as of 11/13/2014; includes runoff elections to be held in LA-5 and LA-6 3 AK Total Seats Democrats: 199 Republicans: 233 Vacancies: 3
  • 10. Demographic Profiles of the 113th and 114th Congresses 113th Congress 114th Congress House Senate House Senate D R All D R All D R All D R All 40 and Under 7% 9% 8% 0% 0% 1% 10% 9% 9% 0% 4% 2% Women 30% 8% 18% 30% 9% 20% 34% 8% 19% 33% 11% 22% Black 20% 0% 9% 2% 2% 2% 23% 1% 10% 2% 2% 2% Latino 13% 3% 7% 2% 7% 4% 13% 4% 8% 2% 6% 4% Analysis The share of members age 40 and under, as well as the share of women and members who identify as black or Latino all increased in the 114th Congress *Results calculated with Senate races still pending in Louisiana and Alaska, as well as 7 House races; projected winners in pending races not accounted for in tShoius rtcael:l yNational Journal Research Source:
  • 11. Republicans Win Solid Majority in Senate OH WV VA Control of the 114th Senate (2015-2017) MI OK MT ND WY CO MO Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News. PA NY ME NC SC GA TN KY IN WI MN IL TX LA ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM SD IA UT FL AR MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AK HI AK 2 Democrats 2 Republicans 1 Democrat + 1 Republican 1 Democrat + 1 Independent 1 Republican + 1 Independent Undecided/Runoff Democrats: 44 Republicans: 53 Independents: 2 Undecided: 1 Runoff election will be held on December 6, 2014
  • 12. Senate changes Current Senate - 55 Democrats* - 45 Republicans * Includes 2 Independents New Senate* - 53 Republicans - 46 Democrats** * LA set for run-off on 12/6 ** Includes 2 Independents
  • 13. New Senators Alaska – Dan Sullivan Arkansas – Tom Cotton Colorado – Corey Gardner Iowa – Joni Ernst Georgia – David Perdue Michigan – Gary Peters Montana – Steve Daines Nebraska – Ben Sasse North Carolina – Thom Tillis Oklahoma – James Lankford South Dakota – Mike Rounds West Virginia – Shelley Moore Capito
  • 14. Control of Senate May Seesaw Back to Control of Senate After 2014 Elections Democrats in 2016 Projected Control of the Senate, 2016 and Beyond Projected Control of Senate After 2016 Elections Projected Control of Senate After 2018 Elections 2016 Senate Races by 2012 Presidential Performance1 Obama +5 or greater Obama +4.9 to Romney +4.9 Romney +5 or greater Senate ? 2014 Senate Races by 2012 Presidential Performance1 Obama +5 or greater Obama +4.9 to Romney +4.9 Romney +15 or greater Democrat Senator (21) Republican Senator (15) Democrat Senator (10) Republican Senator (24) 2018 Senate Races by 2012 Presidential Performance1 Obama +5 or greater Obama +4.9 to Romney +4.9 Romney +5 or greater Independen t Senator (2) Democrat Senator (23) Republican Senator (8) 1”Presidential performance” is a candidate’s margin of victory in a particular state’s popular vote results, and is a useful indicator for measuring state party leanings in 2014 and 2016 Senate elections Source: National Journal Research analysis.
  • 15. Lame Duck
  • 16. Only Urgent Issues Likely to be Addressed in Lame Duck Session Potential Lame Duck Session Legislative Productivity (113th Congress) House Senate White House Analysis •Expect legislators to pass only necessary, short-term bills and an omnibus budget bill in the lame duck session •The lame duck session will likely be more productive than the September session; necessary legislation that was not passed before the election may be taken up in the lame duck session, and controversial votes are easier for members to take without electoral pressure •Because Dems will lose control of the Senate in January, they may attempt to push legislation and appointments through while they still have control; •However, the limited duration of the lame duck available, and the fact that several major issues (government funding, tax extenders, TRIA) will expire in December, may mean that there will be no opportunity for non-essential legislation Congress most likely to focus on must-pass legislation in the lame duck Sources: National Journal Research, 2014; Billy House, “Election Uncertainty Complicates Budget Decisions,” National Journal, August 20, 2014; Robert Longley, “Lame Duck Sessions of the U.S. Congress,” About News, 2014; Billy House, “As Bills Pile Up, Congress Starts Contemplating a Lame Duck Session,” Government Executive, June 18, 2014;
  • 17. Once Republicans Control the Senate, Expect More Bills (and More Vetoes) Potential Post-Election Legislative Productivity With Republican Senate (114th Congress) House Senate Analysis •When Republicans formally take control of the Senate in January, expect legislative productivity to go up, since Congressional gridlock will be less of an obstacle to lawmaking •However, there could still be disagreements within and between chambers: Senate Republicans will still have to address concerns of moderate Democrats in order to pass legislation, so Senate bills are likely to be more moderate than House versions •Even if Congress does pass more Republican-backed bills, Obama will likely veto highly partisan White House legislation Republican-controlled congress will likely be highly productive White House will veto highly partisan bills Sources: National Journal Research, 2014; Rebecca Kaplan, “3 big issues Congress will likely punt for now,” CBS News, July 29, 2014; Billy House, “Election Uncertainty Complicates Budget Decisions,” National Journal, August 20, 2014; Phillip Bump, “Yes, the Senate is ignoring hundreds of bills passed by the GOP House. But it’s always been that way,” The Washington Post, August 8, 2014.
  • 18. Lame Duck Session • Leadership priorities: – NSA surveillance (failed) – Terrorism Risk Insurance Act – Defense Authorization bill – Tax Extenders (transportation funding vehicle?) – “Cromnibus?” – combination of an omnibus for some agencies; CR for others – For Dems - nominations - Want to recess for Thanksgiving – and “hopefully” finish close to 12/11 date
  • 19. Key dates for 2015 • February – President’s budget released • March/April – Budget resolutions and budget reconciliation • March (with possible extension) – debt ceiling • May 31st – MAP-21 extension expires – funding at the same time – Earlier? Later? • June/July – Appropriations (don’t forget sequester!)
  • 20. Authorization Status • “New” Senate Chairman of EPW Committee • “New” Ranking Member of T&I • Key policy issues – Local input – Freight/goods movement – Implementation issues • House and Senate Committee leaders express desire to move a bill in early Spring • Despite will to move quickly and before May 31st – funding shortfall will remain obstacle
  • 21. Funding • May 31st is key date – but understand it could be sooner (or later) • Will authorization bill be constrained to “flat funding plus inflation”? • Will tax reform be the vehicle? – Both sides still have different goals – Repatriation getting attention – not necessarily support • Same list of options being discussed*
  • 22. Transportation’s fiscal cliff
  • 23. Just five months ago…….. • Congress extended MAP-21 policies through May 31, 2015 • Congress also transferred $10.8 billion into the Highway Trust Fund to maintain current funding levels – “estimated” to last until May 31, 2015
  • 24. Two problems • What happens after May 31st next year? • “Longer” term shortfall
  • 25. Fuel Taxes Power Fund Analysis • 90% of the Highway Trust Fund’s revenue comes from fuel taxes (imposed at the federal level but collected by state retailers), and gas taxes comprise 75% of fuel tax income • The fund’s relative dependence on a small number of sources makes it vulnerable to revenue and consumption fluctuations Joseph Kile, “The Highway Trust Fund and Paying for Highways,” Congressional Budget Office, May 17, 2011. 25
  • 26. History • Since 2000, Congress has spent more from the Highway Trust Fund than revenue collected • Congress has transferred funds from the General Fund to the HTF to keep spending at current levels – Approximately $65 billion transferred – Some transfers “paid” for
  • 27. HTF outlook • In order to keep current funding levels, need revenue from “somewhere”………. • Current funding gap – roughly $15 - $18 billion needed annually to maintain current funding levels
  • 28. Funding vs. Financing Funding • Collection of taxes, fees, and other charges and the allocation of these revenues for transportation purposes Financing • Leveraging or upfront monetization of revenue streams
  • 29. Choices • Reduce spending • Go to the General Fund – again • Raise current taxes or fees • Create new funding mechanism
  • 30. Examples of financing methods – National Infrastructure Bank or Fund – TIFIA Expansion – Private Activity Bonds – Tax credit bonds – Tax exempt bonds
  • 31. States taking the lead • Sales taxes • Indexing transit fares and fuel taxes • Moving taxation to wholesale level • Internet sales tax revenue • Oil and gas impact fees • Vehicle miles traveled • Tolling, managed lanes • Lottery proceeds • Raising DL fees, titling, registration, emission • Alternative fuel vehicle fee • Regional congestion relief fees for real estate • Rest stop sponsorship
  • 32. Patience and Wisdom
  • 33. Kathy Ruffalo kathy@kruffalo.com 202-997-4136

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