919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, N...
919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, N...
919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, N...
919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, N...
919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, N...
919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, N...
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National Security Poll Results

National survey results from Secure America Now about the Iran nuclear deal
Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Published in: Government & Nonprofit      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - National Security Poll Results

  • 1. 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008 www.mclaughlinonline.com Caddell Associates To: SecureAmericaNow.org From: John McLaughlin and Patrick Caddell Re: National Survey Results – Iran Nuclear Agreement and Political Fallout Date: September 6th , 2015 Methodology: This national survey of 800 likely 2016 general election voters was conducted between September 2 nd and 3 rd , 2015. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. Seventy percent (n = 560) of the interviews were conducted via landline telephone by professional interviewers. Thirty percent (n=240) of the interviews were conducted on cell-phones. These samples were then combined and structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a nationwide general election. This poll of 800 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.5% at a 95% confidence interval. Survey Results: A nationwide survey of 2016 likely general election voters conducted by McLaughlin & Associates for SecureAmericaNow.org finds that the vast majority of Americans want the Senate and House of Representatives to vote on the merits of President Obama’s agreement with Iran. This most recent survey shows the following: 1. There has been an unspoken undercurrent that there is little public interest or passion in the Iran nuclear agreement. Nothing could be further from the truth. 2. Our firms have been jointly polling for Secure America Now on this issue for months. Since July opposition to the agreement has been steadily growing by the American people and with that their passion against it. 3. Among political elites there has been evident an attitude that this issue is the exclusive business of Washington DC officeholders and interest groups. Given the voter uprising occurring in the presidential nomination process against the Washington DC establishment and political elites why would those expect that the American voters would be content with legislative machinations and political party horse-trading? The voters are not. 4. The voters have powerful majority views on aspects of the deal that are can only be ignored at political peril. 5. In this study we sought to explore the potential electoral consequences of ignoring the desires of the electorate. This survey should be sober reading for those in the President's Party who are prepared to attempt to shutdown a vote on this grave matter or those who have decided to put the demands of party first in utter disregard of the voters’ deep sense of the national interest. In our vast experience, we have seen nothing like it and challenge anyone to produce historical results such as these. 6. The norm in political attitudes is to have Democrats and Republicans on opposite poles and Independents in the middle leaning a bit one way or the other. However, on the Iran deal, the GOP is totally against, Independents only slightly less and Democrats split. This is how landslides are made.
  • 2. 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008 www.mclaughlinonline.com Caddell Associates Part One – The Substance of the Iran Deal Only 27% want their representatives to vote in favor of the deal that gives Iran 24 days inspection notice. 64% say no. 42% of the Democrats say no. “Should your Congressional representatives vote in favor of an Iran deal that gives Iran 24 days notice before inspections of its nuclear labs can take place?” Total GOP DEM IND Yes 26.6 12.2 43.8 23.9 No 64.0 80.7 42.2 69.6 DK/Ref. 9.4 7.1 14.0 6.5 Net Diff. -37.5 -68.5 1.6 -45.7 78% want their senators and congressman to vote no on the deal because it lifts sanctions and provides Iran with $100 billion that it can use to finance its terrorist activities. Only 10% said yes. 64% of the Democrats say vote no. “Should your Congressman and Senators vote for an Iran deal that lifts sanctions and provides Iran $100 billion that it can use to finance its terrorist activities?” Total GOP DEM IND Yes 9.5 2.7 18.1 7.2 No 77.9 90.4 64.0 82.1 DK/Ref. 12.5 6.9 17.9 10.7 Net Diff. 68.4 87.7 45.9 75.0 Only 7% say Congress should approve a deal that allows Iran to inspect their own sites without the direct supervision of any international inspectors. 90% of both Republicans and Independents said no and 79% of Democrats! “Should Congress approve a deal that allows Iran to inspect their own nuclear sites without the direct supervision of any international inspectors?” Total GOP DEM IND Yes 7.0 3.7 11.3 6.3 No 88.1 93.8 79.3 91.3 DK/Ref. 4.9 2.5 9.3 2.4 Net Diff. 81.2 90.1 68.0 85.1 62% say that this Iran deal will make Iran a more dangerous enemy. Only 17% say that it will make Iran a friend to America. “Do you think this Iran deal will make Iran a friend to the United States or a more dangerous enemy?” Total GOP DEM IND Friend to the U.S. 17.4 4.0 35.4 12.5 More Dangerous Enemy 62.0 85.1 36.9 67.2 DK/Ref. 20.7 10.9 27.7 20.3 Net Diff. 44.6 81.1 1.5 54.7
  • 3. 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008 www.mclaughlinonline.com Caddell Associates 65% say that Congress should increase sanctions on Iran to stop its terrorist activities even though Iran has threatened to walk away from the Iran deal. Only 22% said no. “Should Congress increase sanctions on Iran to stop its terrorist activities even though Iran has threatened to walk away from the Iran deal?” Total GOP DEM IND Yes 65.4 79.7 47.7 72.0 No 21.5 10.7 34.8 17.3 DK/Ref. 13.1 9.6 17.5 10.7 Net Diff. 43.9 69.0 12.9 54.7 55% said that President Obama should retract the Iran deal because his only supporters are just members of the Democratic Party and his opposition is bipartisan and includes both Democrats and Republicans. Only 34% would not retract. Among Democrats 37% said he should retract the deal. “Should President Obama retract the Iran deal if his only supporters are just some members of the Democratic Party, while opponents include both Democrats and Republicans?” Total GOP DEM IND Yes 55.4 75.1 36.7 57.2 No 33.5 17.1 50.3 32.0 DK/Ref. 11.1 7.7 12.9 10.8 Net Diff. 21.9 58.0 -13.6 25.2
  • 4. 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008 www.mclaughlinonline.com Caddell Associates Part Two – The Politics of the Iran Deal 65% say that President Obama and Secretary Kerry are only telling us what they think will help the agreement be passed by Congress. Only 25% say that they are telling Americans all the facts. “Regarding the specifics of this agreement, do you think that President Obama and Secretary Kerry are telling Americans all the facts or only what they think will help the agreement be passed by Congress?” Total GOP DEM IND All the Facts 24.6 5.4 48.4 18.4 Only What Helps Argument 64.6 87.0 40.5 68.5 DK/Ref. 10.8 7.6 11.2 13.2 Net Diff. 39.9 81.6 -7.9 50.1 69% of voters believe the US Congress should be required to vote on the Iran deal. Only 22% say let it go into effect without a vote. “All things being equal…? Do you believe the U.S. Congress should be required to vote on the Iran deal, OR, Should the deal be able to go into effect even without a Congressional vote?” Total GOP DEM IND Required to Vote 69.0 81.7 48.0 79.1 Go Into Effect 21.7 10.9 38.4 14.8 DK/Ref. 9.3 7.3 13.6 6.1 Net Diff. 47.3 70.8 9.6 64.3 Only 34% of all voters support a veto. Even 25% of the Democrats want an override vote. “If a majority of Senators and Congressmen vote against the Iran deal and President Obama vetoes the legislation, should your congressional representative support the President’s veto or vote to override the veto?” Total GOP DEM IND Support Veto 33.5 9.3 60.3 28.7 Vote to Override 56.0 84.7 24.6 62.1 DK/Ref. 10.5 6.0 15.2 9.2 Net Diff. 22.5 75.4 -35.7 33.4 If their Senators and Congressman support the deal, 54% say that they will NOT vote for them again in the future. Only 29% said they would. Among Democrats 36% say that they will NOT vote for them again. Only 45% say that they would. “Recent polls have shown that the American people strongly oppose the deal with Iran. If your Senators and Congressman nonetheless support the Iran deal would you ever vote for him or her again in the future?” Total GOP DEM IND Yes 28.9 11.9 44.9 28.5 No 54.1 74.2 36.1 54.3 DK/Ref. 17.0 13.9 19.0 17.1 Net Diff. 25.2 62.3 -8.9 25.8
  • 5. 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008 www.mclaughlinonline.com Caddell Associates 65% say that it is important Congress votes on the Iran deal and if their senators tried to stop a vote in Congress they would never vote for them again. Only 24% say that it is unnecessary to vote. Among Democrats they say that it is important Congress votes 45%; unnecessary 41%. “All things being equal with whom do you agree more…? Some who say that President Obama has enough votes in Congress and the support of the U.N. that it is unnecessary to have a vote in Congress on the deal. OR, Others who say that it is so important that the representatives of the American people vote on this most serious issue that if their Senators tried to stop a vote in Congress they would never vote for them again?” Total GOP DEM IND Unnecessary to Vote 23.6 6.5 41.1 22.0 Important to Vote 64.8 82.5 44.7 70.3 DK/Ref. 11.6 11.0 14.2 7.7 Net Diff. 41.2 76.0 3.6 48.3 50% said that if their Congressional representative tries to stop a vote in Congress on the Iran deal that they will not ever vote for that representative again. Only 32% said yes. Among Democrats 41% not ever vote for them again. Only 36% said that they would. “If your Congressional representative tries to stop a vote in Congress on the Iran deal will you ever vote for that representative again?” Total GOP DEM IND Yes 32.0 28.6 36.5 31.0 No 50.5 63.1 41.4 49.4 DK/Ref. 17.5 8.3 22.1 19.6 Net Diff. 18.4 34.4 4.9 18.3 If President Obama is able to get enough Congressional Democratic support to sustain a veto, and the deal goes into effect, 49% of all voters say that they will be less likely to support Democratic candidates in the future including 16% of Democrats and 55% of Independents. Only 42% of all voters said no. “If President Obama is able to get enough Congressional Democratic support to sustain a veto, and the deal goes into effect, despite the opposition of a majority of Congress, and the overwhelming opposition of the American people, would this make you less likely to support Democratic candidates in the future?” Total GOP DEM IND Yes 48.9 78.6 15.8 55.4 No 42.1 15.8 73.4 35.5 DK/Ref. 6.6 5.7 10.8 9.1 Net Diff. 31.5 62.8 -57.6 19.8
  • 6. 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008 www.mclaughlinonline.com Caddell Associates Demographic Breakdown 9 -3- 2015 Party Total Age Total Race % Republican 30% 18-29 10% White 70% Democrat 33% 30-40 14% African American 11% Independent 32% 41-55 24% Hispanic 12% Ideology % 56-65 26% Asian 1% Liberal 20% Over 65 25% Gender % Moderate 35% Male 48% Conservative 38% Female 52%

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