(Emma) Liu Xiang
Synthetic Fibres Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 2015
Seoul, 8 May 2015
Polyamide Intermediates –...
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Source...
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
BASF
DSM
Ube
Honeywell
CPDC
CaproCorp
Lanxess
Sumitomo
Domo
C.I.S
Poland
India
Others
S...
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
Source...
-750
-650
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
1,000 Metric Tons
S&SEAsia
EEurope
WEurope
NAmerica
SAmerica
ME&...
-750
-650
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
1,000 Metric Tons
S&SEAsia
EEurope
WEurope
NAmerica
SAmerica
ME&...
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
APIC 2015
ASIAN CAPRO...
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Bre...
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
2015?
APIC 2015
ASIAN 0.865...
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
APIC 2015
AVERAGE PET RESIN...
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,0...
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
$/ton Caprolactam
Sou...
World Capacity World Tightness
Utilisation Rate Markets Index
96.0% Very Tight 1.4
93.7% Tight 1.2
90.0% Balanced 1
84.0% ...
For a given year:
World Tightness Index = log10
Capability
Capability - Consumption
Capability = Annual Nameplate Capacity...
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Tightness Index
Brent Crude Oi...
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Tightness Index
Brent Cr...
Butadiene
Adiponitrile HMDA
Acrylonitrile
HCN by-product
HCN Andrussov
Electro Hydro Dimerisation
H2
Hydrocyanation
Altern...
Invista
Orange
13.4%
Ascend
15.8%
Rhodia
13.2%
Asahi
2.2%
Invista
Victoria
21.1%
Invista
France
13.2%
Invista China
15.8%
...
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1,000 Metric Tons
...
APIC 2015
WORLD ADIPIC ACID CAPABILITY vs DEMAND
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2...
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
1,000 Metric Tons
Textile...
1,000 Metric Tons
2006-2014 Growth 8%
Forecast
Growth 9%
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 SUPPLY & DEM...
High
Tenacity
Filament
28%
Airbag
5%
Staple
4%
Cable Tie
8%
Engineering
Plastics
52%
Textile
Filament
3%
End-Use Demand
Sh...
APIC 2015
CONCLUSIONS
• Most of the world growth for caprolactam will take place in
China, due to:
Dominance in world prod...
• Steady growth on the global polyamide 66 demand, but stronger
growth is expected to occur in China.
• With Shandong Runx...
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Polyamide Intermediates – World Market Overview

Presentation from the Committee Meeting at APIC 2015 by Liu Xiang - Consultant
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Business      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Polyamide Intermediates – World Market Overview

  • 1. (Emma) Liu Xiang Synthetic Fibres Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 2015 Seoul, 8 May 2015 Polyamide Intermediates – World Market Overview
  • 2. 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Forecast Growth 2.9% pa Growth 3.4% Growth 3.0% Growth 2.7% pa Capability to produce Annual Caprolactam Consumption 1,000 Metric Tons If no new plants 2018-2020 APIC 2015 WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY versus DEMAND
  • 3. -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 BASF DSM Ube Honeywell CPDC CaproCorp Lanxess Sumitomo Domo C.I.S Poland India Others Sinopec Bohui ShandongHongye ZhejiangJuhua ShandongLuxi HubeiSanning FujianTianchen HebeiXuyang ShanxiLanhua FujianLiheng ShanxiYangmei Hengyi Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Baling Fujian China China China 2011 Closures 2013-2015 Additions 2012 Additions 2014 Additions 2015-2016 Additions 2013 Additions 2017 Shijiazhuang APIC 2015 CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY 2011 – 2017 1,000 Metric Tons per Year
  • 4. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2014 2020 2014 2020 2014 2020 2014 2020 2014 2020 2014 2020 2014 2020 2014 2020 Source: Tecnon OrbiChem 1,000 Metric Tons Textile Filament High Ten Yarn BCF & Staple PA6 Engineering Resin North America South America West Europe East Europe ME & Africa S & SE Asia NE Asia China APIC 2015 WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 DEMAND BY REGION
  • 5. -750 -650 -550 -450 -350 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350 450 1,000 Metric Tons S&SEAsia EEurope WEurope NAmerica SAmerica ME&Africa Taiwan&SKorea China Japan 2004 2014 2005 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 est Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE 2004-2014
  • 6. -750 -650 -550 -450 -350 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350 450 1,000 Metric Tons S&SEAsia EEurope WEurope NAmerica SAmerica ME&Africa Taiwan&SKorea China Japan 2004 2014 2005 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 est Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE Post 2014 Trends Forecast Trend to 2020
  • 7. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 APIC 2015 ASIAN CAPROLACTAM IMPORT CONTRACT PRICE vs BRENT CRUDE OIL Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl Asian Caprolactam Import Contract $/ton 1999-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  • 8. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Brent Crude Oil $/bbl Asian 0.865 PTA + 0.35 MEG $/ton 1999-2008 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 APIC 2015 ASIAN 0.865PTA PRICE + 0.35MEG PRICE vs BRENT CRUDE OIL
  • 9. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2015? APIC 2015 ASIAN 0.865PTA + 0.35MEG PRICE TREND & CAPROLACTAM PRICE TREND vs BRENT CRUDE OIL Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl Caprolactam PTA + MEG $/ton
  • 10. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 APIC 2015 AVERAGE PET RESIN AND PA6 POLYMER COSTS vs BRENT CRUDE OIL Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl PA6 PET 2015? $/ton Asia Cotton Price (May-Dec 2014)
  • 11. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 $/ton Caprolactam Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST ON CRUDE OIL PRICE Cyclohexane Packing, loading shipping Fixed costs of supplying plants Cats & Chemicals Fixed costs of caprolactam plant Cost of Production in Asia Crude Oil Price $/bbl Delivery Energy dependant costs Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.) 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 7 6 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 10 9 8 6 7 11 12 51 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 12. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 $/ton Caprolactam Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST CRUDE OIL PRICE Cyclohexane Packing, loading shipping Fixed costs of supplying plants Cats & Chemicals Fixed costs of caprolactam plant Cost of Production in Asia Crude Oil Price $/bbl Delivery Energy dependant costs Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2013 2014 12 11 10
  • 13. World Capacity World Tightness Utilisation Rate Markets Index 96.0% Very Tight 1.4 93.7% Tight 1.2 90.0% Balanced 1 84.0% Loose 0.8 75.0% Over-supplied 0.6 (Sloppy) Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 TIGHTNESS INDEX
  • 14. For a given year: World Tightness Index = log10 Capability Capability - Consumption Capability = Annual Nameplate Capacity less Capacity off line* * Due to unscheduled stoppages, not scheduled maintenance turnarounds Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 TIGHTNESS INDEX
  • 15. 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Tightness Index Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED OVER- SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) LOOSE H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 H2 2012 2013 2014 Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 CAPROLACTAM PRICE HISTORY - ASIA
  • 16. 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Tightness Index Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED OVER SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) LOOSE Source: Tecnon OrbiChem November 2014 APIC 2015 CAPROLACTAM PRICE SCENARIOS – ASIA NOV 2014
  • 17. Butadiene Adiponitrile HMDA Acrylonitrile HCN by-product HCN Andrussov Electro Hydro Dimerisation H2 Hydrocyanation Alternatives + Adipic acid AH Salt PA66 Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 THE PA66 SUPPLY CHAIN
  • 18. Invista Orange 13.4% Ascend 15.8% Rhodia 13.2% Asahi 2.2% Invista Victoria 21.1% Invista France 13.2% Invista China 15.8% Runxing 5.3% 77% 23% Invista Orange 17.0% Ascend 20.1% Rhodia 16.7% Asahi 2.7% Invista Victoria 26.8% Invista France 16.7% 77% 24% Invista Orange 17.0% Ascend 20.1% Rhodia 16.7% Asahi 2.7% Invista Victoria 26.8% Invista France 16.7% 60% 23% 17% 1,240/1,495 ktpa Technology 2014 1,495 ktpa 20192009 Hydrocyanation Acrylonitrile EHD 1,895 ktpa Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 GLOBAL ADIPONITRILE CAPACITY
  • 19. 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1,000 Metric Tons No new plants 2015-2018 Annual Adiponitrile Consumption Forecast Growth 3.7% Capability to produce = 95% capacity BASF closes 116 ktpa at Wilton, UK Growth 3.1% Invista’s 254 ktpa unit at Orange, USA out of action Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 WORLD ADIPONITRILE CAPABILITY vs DEMAND
  • 20. APIC 2015 WORLD ADIPIC ACID CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Adipic Acid Consumption Forecast Growth 2.7% Capability to Produce Invista closes 450 ktpa at Wilton & Maitland, rebuilds Orange Growth 4.0% 1,000 Metric Tons Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
  • 21. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1,000 Metric Tons Textile Fibre Bulked Carpet High Ten Yarn Staple PA66 Resin 1.7% 2.4% 3.9% Growth 2012 - 2020 1.9% Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 WORLD POLYAMIDE 66 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE
  • 22. 1,000 Metric Tons 2006-2014 Growth 8% Forecast Growth 9% Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 SUPPLY & DEMAND 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 PA66 Capacity PA66 Net Import PA66Product ion
  • 23. High Tenacity Filament 28% Airbag 5% Staple 4% Cable Tie 8% Engineering Plastics 52% Textile Filament 3% End-Use Demand Shenma 43% Guorui 2% Huafon 6% Huayang 2% Invista 16% Ascend 5% Rhodia 4% DuPont 8% Asahi/Tora y 4%Radici 1% Nilit 4% Others 4% Supply by Producer Consumption 562,000 Tons Supply 580,000 Tons Source: Tecnon OrbiChem & China Customs APIC 2015 CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 DEMAND & SUPPLY 2014
  • 24. APIC 2015 CONCLUSIONS • Most of the world growth for caprolactam will take place in China, due to: Dominance in world production of PA6 textile filament Displacement of imports of caprolactam and PA6 polymer • Massive caprolactam capacity additions in China have created overcapacity and have reduced cash margins to zero or negative. The expansion enthusiasm slow down this year due to poor margins. • Some plants have been forced to close in high energy cost regions, more may follow • The fall in crude oil prices will improve the competitivity of polyamide versus polyester Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
  • 25. • Steady growth on the global polyamide 66 demand, but stronger growth is expected to occur in China. • With Shandong Runxing new ADN plant and Invista’s new HMDA plant to come on stream in China, Increased availability of raw material would help the development of polyamide 66 industry in China. • New polyamide 66 polyamide capacity has been announced by Huafon Group (40 ktpa mid-2015), Invista (100 ktpa, early 2016), Henan Shenma (40ktpa, 2016). • Besides existing polyamide 66 polymer players, some adipic acid producers also showed interest of investing polyamide 66 polymer plant to absorb over-supplied adipic acid capacity. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem APIC 2015 CONCLUSIONS
  • 26. …..your source of expert chemical industry knowledge

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