Commodity
Price
Volatility
and Buffer
Stocks
AS Micro –
November
2013
Price Volatility
Why are prices volatile in the markets
for many commodities?
Low
Ped
(<1)
Low
Pes
(<1)
Volatile
Supply
Market
Specula
...
Using analysis diagrams
Price
Price
Quantity
Quantity
Using analysis diagrams
Price
S1
Price
D1
Quantity
Quantity
Using analysis diagrams
Price
P2
S1
Price
D1
D2
P1
Quantity
Quantity
Using analysis diagrams
Price
P2
S1
Price
S1
D1
D2
D1
P1
Quantity
Quantity
Using analysis diagrams
Price
P2
S1
Price
S1
S2
P1
P1
P2
D1
D2
Quantity
D1
Quantity
Problems arising from price volatility
Risk and Uncertainty
• Uncertain incomes and profits
• May limit capital investment...
Problems arising from price volatility
Risk and Uncertainty
• Uncertain incomes and profits
• May limit capital investment...
Problems arising from price volatility
Risk and Uncertainty
• Uncertain incomes and profits
• May limit capital investment...
Buffer Stocks – Do They Work?
Cocoa Prices
Describe two significant features of
the data on world cocoa prices
shown in the chart
Cocoa Prices
Describe two significant features of
the data on world cocoa prices
shown in the chart
1/ Prices are volatil...
Ghana to establish Buffer Stock
The government in Ghana is to
establish a Buffer Stock
Management Agency as a long term
me...
Ghana to establish Buffer Stock
The government in Ghana is to
establish a Buffer Stock
Management Agency as a long term
me...
Ghana – Primary Product Dependence
Ghana Imports
How might a buffer stock help to
stabilise prices?
Price of
Cocoa
Planned
Supply
Upper
Target
Upper
Target Price
Lower...
How might a buffer stock help to
stabilise prices?
Price of
Cocoa
Protect
consumers
Planned
Supply
Upper
Target
Upper
...
How might a buffer stock help to
stabilise prices?
Price of
Cocoa
Planned
Supply
Protect
consumers
Upper
Target
Upper
...
How might a buffer stock help to
stabilise prices?
Price of
Cocoa
Planned
Supply
Market price
free to vary
between the
u...
How might a buffer stock help to
stabilise prices?
Price of
Cocoa
Planned
Supply
Market price
free to vary
between the
u...
Current market price is at P1
Price of
Cocoa
Actual
Supply
Planned
Supply
Upper
Target
Upper
Target Price
P1
Lower
Ta...
Consider an unexpected rise in actual
market supply
Price of
Cocoa
Actual
Supply
Planned
Supply
Upper
Target
Upper
Tar...
A rise in market supply
Price of
Cocoa
Actual
Supply
Planned
Supply
Upper
Target
Upper
Target Price
Lower
Target
Low...
A rise in market supply
Price of
Cocoa
Actual
Supply
Planned
Supply
Upper
Target
Upper
Target Price
Lower
Target
Low...
A rise in market supply
Price of
Cocoa
Demand with
purchases
Actual
Supply
Planned
Supply
Upper
Target
Upper
Target P...
A rise in market supply
Price of
Cocoa
Demand with
purchases
Actual
Supply
Planned
Supply
Upper
Target
Upper
Target P...
Do Buffer Stock Schemes Work?
Could a buffer stock scheme stabilise onion prices?
An eye-watering rise in the price of
onions has contributed to an
unex...
Problems in using buffer stocks for
commodities such as cocoa
Buffer stock may not be large
enough to change price
High in...
Problems in using buffer stocks for
commodities such as cocoa
Buffer stock may not be large
enough to change price
High in...
Problems in using buffer stocks for
commodities such as cocoa
Buffer stock may not be large
enough to change price
High in...
Problems in using buffer stocks for
commodities such as cocoa
Buffer stock may not be large
enough to change price
High in...
Problems in using buffer stocks for
commodities such as cocoa
Buffer stock may not be large
enough to change price
High in...
Alternatives to
buffer stocks
Mobile technology to
help farmers
Encourage processing /
branding by farmers
Improved basi...
Alternatives to
buffer stocks
Mobile technology to
help farmers
Encourage processing /
branding by farmers
Improved basi...
Alternatives to
buffer stocks
Mobile technology to
help farmers
Encourage processing /
branding by farmers
Improved basi...
Alternatives to
buffer stocks
Mobile technology to
help farmers
Encourage processing /
branding by farmers
Improved basi...
Alternatives to
buffer stocks
Mobile technology to
help farmers
Encourage processing /
branding by farmers
Improved basi...
Alternatives to
buffer stocks
Mobile technology to
help farmers
Encourage processing /
branding by farmers
Improved basi...
Buffer stock multiple choice question
Buffer stock multiple choice question
Get help from fellow
students, teachers and
tutor2u on Twitter:
#econ1
@tutor2u_econ
Tutor2u
Keep up-to-date with
economics, resources, quizzes
and worksheets for your
economics course.
of 46

Price Volatility and Buffer Stocks

Updated revision presentation covering price volatility in commodity markets and the economics of buffer stock "price stabilisation" schemes. designed for unit 1 micro course
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Business      Economy & Finance      
Source: www.slideshare.net


Transcripts - Price Volatility and Buffer Stocks

  • 1. Commodity Price Volatility and Buffer Stocks AS Micro – November 2013
  • 2. Price Volatility
  • 3. Why are prices volatile in the markets for many commodities? Low Ped (<1) Low Pes (<1) Volatile Supply Market Specula -tors
  • 4. Using analysis diagrams Price Price Quantity Quantity
  • 5. Using analysis diagrams Price S1 Price D1 Quantity Quantity
  • 6. Using analysis diagrams Price P2 S1 Price D1 D2 P1 Quantity Quantity
  • 7. Using analysis diagrams Price P2 S1 Price S1 D1 D2 D1 P1 Quantity Quantity
  • 8. Using analysis diagrams Price P2 S1 Price S1 S2 P1 P1 P2 D1 D2 Quantity D1 Quantity
  • 9. Problems arising from price volatility Risk and Uncertainty • Uncertain incomes and profits • May limit capital investment by poorer farmers Risk of extreme poverty and unemployment • Millions of smaller farmers suffer • Many do not gain when world prices rise Macroeconomic effects • Volatile export revenues affects the trade balance • High prices can cause inflation and food poverty
  • 10. Problems arising from price volatility Risk and Uncertainty • Uncertain incomes and profits • May limit capital investment by poorer farmers Risk of extreme poverty and unemployment • Millions of smaller farmers suffer • Many do not gain when world prices rise Macroeconomic effects • Volatile export revenues affects the trade balance • High prices can cause inflation and food poverty
  • 11. Problems arising from price volatility Risk and Uncertainty • Uncertain incomes and profits • May limit capital investment by poorer farmers Risk of extreme poverty and unemployment • Millions of smaller farmers suffer • Many do not gain when world prices rise Macroeconomic effects • Volatile export revenues affects the trade balance • High prices can cause inflation and food poverty
  • 12. Buffer Stocks – Do They Work?
  • 13. Cocoa Prices Describe two significant features of the data on world cocoa prices shown in the chart
  • 14. Cocoa Prices Describe two significant features of the data on world cocoa prices shown in the chart 1/ Prices are volatile – e.g. ranging from $3700 per tonne to $2100 during 2010 alone 2/ Significant trend rise in prices from 2006-2011 but a steep decline from the peak of nearly $3750
  • 15. Ghana to establish Buffer Stock The government in Ghana is to establish a Buffer Stock Management Agency as a long term measure to ensure food security. Such an Agency would have the dual responsibility of holding food security buffer stocks and intervening in markets to ensure competitive prices to farmers in times of glut News reports: 18th October 2013
  • 16. Ghana to establish Buffer Stock The government in Ghana is to establish a Buffer Stock Management Agency as a long term measure to ensure food security. Such an Agency would have the dual responsibility of holding food security buffer stocks and intervening in markets to ensure competitive prices to farmers in times of glut News reports: 18th October 2013 Key aims: 1. Stabilise food prices 2. Ensure food supplies 3. Prevent farmers / producers going out of business because of drop in world prices
  • 17. Ghana – Primary Product Dependence
  • 18. Ghana Imports
  • 19. How might a buffer stock help to stabilise prices? Price of Cocoa Planned Supply Upper Target Upper Target Price Lower Target Lower Target Price Market Demand A buffer stock scheme is a government plan to stabilise prices in volatile markets Quantity
  • 20. How might a buffer stock help to stabilise prices? Price of Cocoa Protect consumers Planned Supply Upper Target Upper Target Price Lower Target Lower Target Price Market Demand A buffer stock scheme is a government plan to stabilise prices in volatile markets Quantity
  • 21. How might a buffer stock help to stabilise prices? Price of Cocoa Planned Supply Protect consumers Upper Target Upper Target Price Protect producers Lower Target Lower Target Price Market Demand A buffer stock scheme is a government plan to stabilise prices in volatile markets Quantity
  • 22. How might a buffer stock help to stabilise prices? Price of Cocoa Planned Supply Market price free to vary between the upper & lower band Protect consumers Upper Target Upper Target Price Protect producers Lower Target Lower Target Price Market Demand A buffer stock scheme is a government plan to stabilise prices in volatile markets Quantity
  • 23. How might a buffer stock help to stabilise prices? Price of Cocoa Planned Supply Market price free to vary between the upper & lower band Protect consumers Upper Target Upper Target Price Protect producers Lower Target Lower Target Price Market Demand A buffer stock scheme is a government plan to stabilise prices in volatile markets Quantity
  • 24. Current market price is at P1 Price of Cocoa Actual Supply Planned Supply Upper Target Upper Target Price P1 Lower Target Lower Target Price Market Demand Q1 Quantity
  • 25. Consider an unexpected rise in actual market supply Price of Cocoa Actual Supply Planned Supply Upper Target Upper Target Price P1 Lower Target Lower Target Price Market Demand Q1 S1 Quantity
  • 26. A rise in market supply Price of Cocoa Actual Supply Planned Supply Upper Target Upper Target Price Lower Target Lower Target Price Market Demand S1 Quantity
  • 27. A rise in market supply Price of Cocoa Actual Supply Planned Supply Upper Target Upper Target Price Lower Target Lower Target Price Excess supply at this price Market Demand Q1 S1 Quantity
  • 28. A rise in market supply Price of Cocoa Demand with purchases Actual Supply Planned Supply Upper Target Upper Target Price Lower Target Lower Target Price Market Demand Q1 S1 Quantity
  • 29. A rise in market supply Price of Cocoa Demand with purchases Actual Supply Planned Supply Upper Target Upper Target Price Lower Target Lower Target Price Cost of buying up stocks Market Demand Q1 S1 Quantity
  • 30. Do Buffer Stock Schemes Work?
  • 31. Could a buffer stock scheme stabilise onion prices? An eye-watering rise in the price of onions has contributed to an unexpected surge in Indian inflation. Onion prices have more than tripled over the past year, with the wholesale price up 245 per cent. Many Indians use onions in almost every meal, and some form of bread with onion is regarded as a basic diet for the poor Onion prices in India have been high since January 2013, with officials blaming first a water shortage and then excessive monsoon rains, although business leaders say the underlying problems include bad roads and the country’s poor infrastructure for storage and distribution of fresh produce (Source: FT and BBC News)
  • 32. Problems in using buffer stocks for commodities such as cocoa Buffer stock may not be large enough to change price High intervention price leads to rising producer surpluses Expensive to buy up the surpluses – might cause big losses Costs of storage and falling quality of product Might be better alternative long run policies for farmers
  • 33. Problems in using buffer stocks for commodities such as cocoa Buffer stock may not be large enough to change price High intervention price leads to rising producer surpluses Expensive to buy up the surpluses – might cause big losses Costs of storage and falling quality of product Might be better alternative long run policies for farmers
  • 34. Problems in using buffer stocks for commodities such as cocoa Buffer stock may not be large enough to change price High intervention price leads to rising producer surpluses Expensive to buy up the surpluses – might cause big losses Costs of storage and falling quality of product Might be better alternative long run policies for farmers
  • 35. Problems in using buffer stocks for commodities such as cocoa Buffer stock may not be large enough to change price High intervention price leads to rising producer surpluses Expensive to buy up the surpluses – might cause big losses Costs of storage and falling quality of product Might be better alternative long run policies for farmers
  • 36. Problems in using buffer stocks for commodities such as cocoa Buffer stock may not be large enough to change price High intervention price leads to rising producer surpluses Expensive to buy up the surpluses – might cause big losses Costs of storage and falling quality of product Might be better alternative long run policies for farmers
  • 37. Alternatives to buffer stocks Mobile technology to help farmers Encourage processing / branding by farmers Improved basic storage facilities + irrigation Micro insurance policies for poorer farmers
  • 38. Alternatives to buffer stocks Mobile technology to help farmers Encourage processing / branding by farmers Improved basic storage facilities + irrigation Micro insurance policies for poorer farmers
  • 39. Alternatives to buffer stocks Mobile technology to help farmers Encourage processing / branding by farmers Improved basic storage facilities + irrigation Micro insurance policies for poorer farmers
  • 40. Alternatives to buffer stocks Mobile technology to help farmers Encourage processing / branding by farmers Improved basic storage facilities + irrigation Micro insurance policies for poorer farmers
  • 41. Alternatives to buffer stocks Mobile technology to help farmers Encourage processing / branding by farmers Improved basic storage facilities + irrigation Micro insurance policies for poorer farmers
  • 42. Alternatives to buffer stocks Mobile technology to help farmers Encourage processing / branding by farmers Improved basic storage facilities + irrigation Micro insurance policies for poorer farmers Good evaluation always includes suggesting alternatives to the policy / strategy under discussion
  • 43. Buffer stock multiple choice question
  • 44. Buffer stock multiple choice question
  • 45. Get help from fellow students, teachers and tutor2u on Twitter: #econ1 @tutor2u_econ
  • 46. Tutor2u Keep up-to-date with economics, resources, quizzes and worksheets for your economics course.

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